Ted Thompson Era Should Be Over

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I think fans would turn down the heat on TT .... well no they wouldn't, but I'd potentially take it easier on him if we had a relatively injury free year on D, or at least less so than normal, or had the depth stocked by looking into veterans out there that could play at an adequate enough level and don't cost a fortune. The main thing is I'd just like to see something happen that our defensive coaches can't hide behind anymore. An upgrade of talent but not much of a change in results and the limelight will be shining completely on Capers and his staff.

We know one thing, TT will definitely be stocking up on corners with Shields out. If we just get through a year for once with minimal injuries we'll get a good look at whether or not our coaches are running a faulty scheme.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I think fans would turn down the heat on TT .... well no they wouldn't, but I'd potentially take it easier on him if we had a relatively injury free year on D, or at least less so than normal, or had the depth stocked by looking into veterans out there that could play at an adequate enough level and don't cost a fortune. The main thing is I'd just like to see something happen that our defensive coaches can't hide behind anymore. An upgrade of talent but not much of a change in results and the limelight will be shining completely on Capers and his staff.

We know one thing, TT will definitely be stocking up on corners with Shields out. If we just get through a year for once with minimal injuries we'll get a good look at whether or not our coaches are running a faulty scheme.

Or, like he did last season or the Packer's Super Bowl season, it could in fact prove the coaches know what they're doing. Just bringing up the other side of that argument regarding giving the staff actual talent.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Or, like he did last season or the Packer's Super Bowl season, it could in fact prove the coaches know what they're doing. Just bringing up the other side of that argument regarding giving the staff actual talent.

Well, true too but with the 100 plus page Fire Capers thread .... or however many that is, I'm just saying it's either gotta manifest itself in full effect or be killed entirely. Honestly I hope our defensive problems this last year were just simply the product of lack of depth in the secondary and fully on TT's shoulders so at least now he knows what he's gotta do and put a contingency plan should the injuries come back again this season. Obviously we're not going to get through this season without some week-to-week injuries hitting our guys in all defensive positions, but hopefully not all those IR injuries we've been dealing with. But an improvement in raw talent puts the ball back in Capers' court hands down.

I'd say though that the clock on our 2017 season building has already started and TT had better get to work scouting for good price FAs.

 

[sdh09e44]

I feel ya, but I am a bit more optimistic about our offense though. I think that, especially with AR is just fine. Doesn't mean we don't need to resign Cook, find a complimentary RB to pair with Monty and keep an eye on our OL and WR in the way of starters and depth, but in general, its in good shape IMO.

The defense is a whole different story. As you say, if TT and Co. chalk this years defensive inadequacies up to injuries and the need to develop the younger guys, they are in for a surprise in 2017. Besides Daniels, Burnett and Dix there isn't a lot to talk about in regards to the starters, nor the guys behind them on defense. I think what the Packers do between now and the draft (signing our own and FA's) will give us all a very good indication of what condition TT and Co. perceive our defense to be in.

For sure. The offense is fine shape. Never gonna truly know what went on in 2015 or parts of 2016 ( @ Minnesota, vs Dallas, vs Indianapolis, @ Tennessee) But they clearly got it together from Washington on and I even think the best offensive years might be ahead of them. Tons of experience paired with young emerging studs in Adams Monty and possibly Allison/Davis. OL is the best it's ever been and now we have a nice TE for the first time in a while. Like you said, add another RB, secure some depth and it's set. Very simple offensive offseason for TT, especially since it's a stacked RB draft.

And to even build on what I said earlier, I really hope they don't think " if the secondary could've only played a little better in Atlanta then Rodgers could've won it for us." Sure, maybe that's true. But the mindset needs to be that they need to build a SB caliber defense, not a defense that can hang around.


Make some bold moves and strive for a defense that can maybe win the game for this team once in a while.

 

[Pkrjones]

Make some bold moves and strive for a defense that can maybe win the game for this team once in a while.

Love to see TT be bold and sign Stephon Gilmore or Prince Amukamara to a 4 or 5 yr. deal. Both guys have speed and can lock down the opposing #1 WR for years to come.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Well, true too but with the 100 plus page Fire Capers thread .... or however many that is, I'm just saying it's either gotta manifest itself in full effect or be killed entirely. Honestly I hope our defensive problems this last year were just simply the product of lack of depth in the secondary and fully on TT's shoulders so at least now he knows what he's gotta do and put a contingency plan should the injuries come back again this season. Obviously we're not going to get through this season without some week-to-week injuries hitting our guys in all defensive positions, but hopefully not all those IR injuries we've been dealing with. But an improvement in raw talent puts the ball back in Capers' court hands down.

I'd say though that the clock on our 2017 season building has already started and TT had better get to work scouting for good price FAs.

"Fire Capers" will never die, no matter what. It has been determined that he is the scapegoat because it's far easier to blame one coach for failure than acknowledge that the issues are personnel related. The need to vent on one guy is strong. Just look at the Falcons. The owner decided to fire a defensive coordinator that had just made the Packer's offense look inept because his offensive coordinator forgot to run the ball (the offensive coordinator couldn't be fired so he had to vent on someone). When the Packers win with good defense it's passed off as the other team playing poorly (just look at this year's playoff game against the Giants) while losses are all on Capers.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

"Fire Capers" will never die, no matter what.

Sure it will, after they fire him.

 

[Packer Brother]

"Fire Capers" will never die, no matter what. It has been determined that he is the scapegoat because it's far easier to blame one coach for failure than acknowledge that the issues are personnel related. The need to vent on one guy is strong. Just look at the Falcons. The owner decided to fire a defensive coordinator that had just made the Packer's offense look inept because his offensive coordinator forgot to run the ball (the offensive coordinator couldn't be fired so he had to vent on someone). When the Packers win with good defense it's passed off as the other team playing poorly (just look at this year's playoff game against the Giants) while losses are all on Capers.

The owner didn't decide to gas the coordinator. Quinn did.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I partly agree with that but the Packer fan base could get TT out of there if they really wanted too and put enough pressure on.

I highly doubt Murphy and executive committee would fire Thompson because of anything the fans did aside of stopping to buy tickets or merchandise.

I think fans would turn down the heat on TT .... well no they wouldn't, but I'd potentially take it easier on him if we had a relatively injury free year on D, or at least less so than normal, or had the depth stocked by looking into veterans out there that could play at an adequate enough level and don't cost a fortune. The main thing is I'd just like to see something happen that our defensive coaches can't hide behind anymore. An upgrade of talent but not much of a change in results and the limelight will be shining completely on Capers and his staff.

We know one thing, TT will definitely be stocking up on corners with Shields out. If we just get through a year for once with minimal injuries we'll get a good look at whether or not our coaches are running a faulty scheme.

It´s absolutely necessary that Thompson provides Capers with significant more talent to work with entering next season. If the results end up being the same it´s time to move on from the defensive coordinator. As of now I believe the unit has mostly struggled because of a lack of talent which is solely on the general manager.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

"Fire Capers" will never die, no matter what. It has been determined that he is the scapegoat because it's far easier to blame one coach for failure than acknowledge that the issues are personnel related. The need to vent on one guy is strong. Just look at the Falcons. The owner decided to fire a defensive coordinator that had just made the Packer's offense look inept because his offensive coordinator forgot to run the ball (the offensive coordinator couldn't be fired so he had to vent on someone). When the Packers win with good defense it's passed off as the other team playing poorly (just look at this year's playoff game against the Giants) while losses are all on Capers.

Well, yeah the more unreasonable fans who don't use their noggins will probably continue to trot out excuse after excuse, but I think those of us thinking objectively won't. I say this as someone who this last year was pretty tough on Dom Capers because of various 40 plus games on his unit, but I'm willing to acknowledge he can still coach if this talent is upgraded and the results improve. Because I know for a fact that you can have talent either on offense or defense and bad coaching will nullify it. Still ... if the talent IS actually improved this season, that ball does go back in Capers' court.

 

[Dantés]

"Fire Capers" will never die, no matter what. It has been determined that he is the scapegoat because it's far easier to blame one coach for failure than acknowledge that the issues are personnel related. The need to vent on one guy is strong. Just look at the Falcons. The owner decided to fire a defensive coordinator that had just made the Packer's offense look inept because his offensive coordinator forgot to run the ball (the offensive coordinator couldn't be fired so he had to vent on someone). When the Packers win with good defense it's passed off as the other team playing poorly (just look at this year's playoff game against the Giants) while losses are all on Capers.

I think that this is artificial for most critics of Capers-- a bit of a straw man. While I'm sure there are people who want to scapegoat him, I along with many others have pointed out issues in BOTH personnel and schematic deployment/development. It's possible (and frankly, realistic) that the defensive issues stem from both sides. TT, despite being a stellar draft guy in the long view, has straight whiffed on occasion lately and exascerbated those misses by refusing to dip into free agency to make up for them. The defensive staff has not, in my opinion, done a great job of development and certainly doesn't scheme to to put players in a position to succeed.

I guess if you wanted to sum this up in two players, you have Damarious Randall who (though he may rebound) just doesn't look like a good pick at all. He's a finesse safety transitioned to corner who doesn't seem able to cut it. That's poor prospect evaluation and draft execution and falls in Thompson's lap.

Then you have Casey Hayward, a very talented cover corner who this defensive staff had pegged as a slot-only player. So they allowed him to leave and he went to San Diego, where he shadowed #1 received more than anyone in the league not named Patrick Peterson, allowing 1 TD and picking off 7 passes. QB's throwing into his coverage had a passer rating of about 50. The staff had an All-Pro talent on their hands and never knew it.

So it's both. And I think most informed fans are willing to see both issues. I think they ought to have fired Capers, but I also think that TT needs to change his approach (especially concerning FA) or get replaced himself. Furthermore, for everyone who wants to blame absolutely everything on Capers there is someone who wants to blame absolutely everything on Thompson, whether it's fair or not.

And finally, to clarify the Falcons situation (because I had the same read on the situation as you did initially), their DC was basically stripped of his duties at mid season by Quinn, which is when the defense began to improve. Quinn took on the defensive play calling himself. That's per Mike Lombardi of the Ringer. He said that the DC was going to be out at the end of the season no matter what happened because of the first half of the season, not because of the Super Bowl.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Then you have Casey Hayward, a very talented cover corner who this defensive staff had pegged as a slot-only player. So they allowed him to leave and he went to San Diego, where he shadowed #1 received more than anyone in the league not named Patrick Peterson, allowing 1 TD and picking off 7 passes. QB's throwing into his coverage had a passer rating of about 50. The staff had an All-Pro talent on their hands and never knew it.

I´m not totally convinced the defensive coaching staff has been given enough talent to successfully develop those players though. Hayward performed on a pretty high level during his first season with the Packers as well and as we´ve already discussed has been the only former draft pick by Thompson who has excelled with a different team.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

One aspect of Talent VS Coaching that keeps jumping out at me are the multiple games where we have seen completely different outcomes on defense within the same game. 2 glaring examples are the first game with the Lions and the second game with the Cowboys. The defense comes out and looks ready to play for the first half (or most of) and then all of a sudden looks lost. Is that on the talent or the coaching? In those situations, it seems like Capers has just been out coached and couldn't figure out how to counter the other teams OC. While I agree that i'ts the chicken or the egg argument, I'm not 100% convinced Capers could make a really good omelette consistently, even with good ingredients.

 

[Dantés]

I´m not totally convinced the defensive coaching staff has been given enough talent to successfully develop those players though. Hayward performed on a pretty high level during his first season with the Packers as well and as we´ve already discussed has been the only former draft pick by Thompson who has excelled with a different team.

Out of a sample size of 4 guys taken in the top 100 since Capers took over. Hayward, Worthy, Thornton, and Neal are the only top 100 defensive picks to leave GB since Capers became the DC in 2009. So it's easy to say that Hayward is the only one, but there haven't been many opportunities to see if guys would excel elsewhere because Thompson has made a habit of keeping his own.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I think that this is artificial for most critics of Capers-- a bit of a straw man. While I'm sure there are people who want to scapegoat him, I along with many others have pointed out issues in BOTH personnel and schematic deployment/development. It's possible (and frankly, realistic) that the defensive issues stem from both sides. TT, despite being a stellar draft guy in the long view, has straight whiffed on occasion lately and exascerbated those misses by refusing to dip into free agency to make up for them. The defensive staff has not, in my opinion, done a great job of development and certainly doesn't scheme to to put players in a position to succeed.

I guess if you wanted to sum this up in two players, you have Damarious Randall who (though he may rebound) just doesn't look like a good pick at all. He's a finesse safety transitioned to corner who doesn't seem able to cut it. That's poor prospect evaluation and draft execution and falls in Thompson's lap.

Then you have Casey Hayward, a very talented cover corner who this defensive staff had pegged as a slot-only player. So they allowed him to leave and he went to San Diego, where he shadowed #1 received more than anyone in the league not named Patrick Peterson, allowing 1 TD and picking off 7 passes. QB's throwing into his coverage had a passer rating of about 50. The staff had an All-Pro talent on their hands and never knew it.

So it's both. And I think most informed fans are willing to see both issues. I think they ought to have fired Capers, but I also think that TT needs to change his approach (especially concerning FA) or get replaced himself. Furthermore, for everyone who wants to blame absolutely everything on Capers there is someone who wants to blame absolutely everything on Thompson, whether it's fair or not.

And finally, to clarify the Falcons situation (because I had the same read on the situation as you did initially), their DC was basically stripped of his duties at mid season by Quinn, which is when the defense began to improve. Quinn took on the defensive play calling himself. That's per Mike Lombardi of the Ringer. He said that the DC was going to be out at the end of the season no matter what happened because of the first half of the season, not because of the Super Bowl.

I agree with much of what you say, I tend to blame Thompson quite a bit but that's because I trust McCarthy to know what he wants in a DC and I trust the reports that say Capers is still a respected coach in the NFL. I don't think Capers is the best DC in the NFL but I also think he's probably above average.

However, I'm curious why the coaching staff gets the blame on Hayward. That was primarily a Thompson decision. Sure, the coaches have a say in things but I don't get how the coaches get blamed for a guy leaving in free agency, the coaches don't have any control over contracts.

 

[Half Empty]

Sure it will, after they fire him.

On the other hand, there's Favre...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

On the other hand, there's Favre...

I meant the "fire" part.

I doubt the legend of Capers will leave this forum anytime soon, even after he is gone. Heck, we might even see chants of "Hire Capers!!!" if a new DC falls flat on his face!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

One aspect of Talent VS Coaching that keeps jumping out at me are the multiple games where we have seen completely different outcomes on defense within the same game. 2 glaring examples are the first game with the Lions and the second game with the Cowboys. The defense comes out and looks ready to play for the first half (or most of) and then all of a sudden looks lost. Is that on the talent or the coaching? In those situations, it seems like Capers has just been out coached and couldn't figure out how to counter the other teams OC. While I agree that i'ts the chicken or the egg argument, I'm not 100% convinced Capers could make a really good omelette consistently, even with good ingredients.

On the other hand it´s possible that Capers establishes a decent game plan during the week best suited to hide the lack of talent he has been dealt by Thompson which is exposed once offensive coordinators adjust accordingly during the game.

Out of a sample size of 4 guys taken in the top 100 since Capers took over. Hayward, Worthy, Thornton, and Neal are the only top 100 defensive picks to leave GB since Capers became the DC in 2009. So it's easy to say that Hayward is the only one, but there haven't been many opportunities to see if guys would excel elsewhere because Thompson has made a habit of keeping his own.

I agree it´s a small sample size but still three out of four players didn´t perform any better for other teams.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

On the other hand it´s possible that Capers establishes a decent game plan during the week best suited to hide the lack of talent he has been dealt by Thompson which is exposed once offensive coordinators adjust accordingly during the game.

I think this is definitely the case, but if he has talented enough players that can take the initial game plan and run it successfully, why are they not able to make successful adjustments? Is Capers not making correct adjustments and remaining too one dimensional or are the players so lacking in talent that adjustments during the game aren't successful or attempted? Again, the Chicken or the egg thing.

Captain, you are the stat man. Have any numbers on Capers first half defenses VS. their second half numbers?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Captain, you are the stat man. Have any numbers on Capers first half defenses VS. their second half numbers?

The Packers have allowed a total of 1,293 points (10.1 avg., fifth best in the league) in the first half of 128 regular season games since Capers became the defensive coordinator in 2009. Opponents have scored a total of 1,417 points (11.1 avg.) in the second half against Green Bay over the last eight seasons, a number that ranks 13th in the NFL.

Since 2011, the Packers are ranked 12th in first half points allowed and 25th in the second half.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Packers have allowed a total of 1,293 points (10.1 avg., fifth best in the league) in the first half of 128 regular season games since Capers became the defensive coordinator in 2009. Opponents have scored a total of 1,417 points (11.1 avg.) in the second half against Green Bay over the last eight seasons, a number that ranks 13th in the NFL.

Since 2011, the Packers are ranked 12th in first half points allowed and 25th in the second half.

Thanks, I had faith you would find those numbers way faster than me.

The numbers since 2011, confirm the story I had in my mind.

 

[Dantés]

I agree with much of what you say, I tend to blame Thompson quite a bit but that's because I trust McCarthy to know what he wants in a DC and I trust the reports that say Capers is still a respected coach in the NFL. I don't think Capers is the best DC in the NFL but I also think he's probably above average.

However, I'm curious why the coaching staff gets the blame on Hayward. That was primarily a Thompson decision. Sure, the coaches have a say in things but I don't get how the coaches get blamed for a guy leaving in free agency, the coaches don't have any control over contracts.

My reasoning in blaming the staff for Hayward is that they didn't, in 4 years, unlock the enormous potential that he realized as soon as he left. Clearly TT drafted a good player, but the defensive staff was not able to put him in a position to be anything more than average to slightly above average. Thompson made the choice to let him walk because he wasn't a a critical player here. But as soon as he got on with a different staff, he blossomed. Had this staff been able to get Hayward to the point that he's at now, you would surely have to think Thompson would have kept him. For all that can be said about Thompson's lack of FA spending, he certainly keeps most of his own good players.

 

[Dantés]

On the other hand it´s possible that Capers establishes a decent game plan during the week best suited to hide the lack of talent he has been dealt by Thompson which is exposed once offensive coordinators adjust accordingly during the game.



I agree it´s a small sample size but still three out of four players didn´t perform any better for other teams.

And 25% went on to be all-pros .

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My reasoning in blaming the staff for Hayward is that they didn't, in 4 years, unlock the enormous potential that he realized as soon as he left. Clearly TT drafted a good player, but the defensive staff was not able to put him in a position to be anything more than average to slightly above average. Thompson made the choice to let him walk because he wasn't a a critical player here. But as soon as he got on with a different staff, he blossomed. Had this staff been able to get Hayward to the point that he's at now, you would surely have to think Thompson would have kept him. For all that can be said about Thompson's lack of FA spending, he certainly keeps most of his own good players.

PFF graded Hayward pretty high during his time with the Packers (91.7 in 2012, 81.3 in '14 and 84.7 in '15) which compares favorably to his first season with the Chargers (88.9).

I understand Capers used him mostly in the slot and not on opposing #1 receivers but he performed at a pretty high level in Green Bay as well.

 

[Croak]

Sure it will, after they fire him.

We were calling for Slocum's head long before the Packers got rid of him. But they did get rid of him. The wheels of change grind exceeding slow, but still they grind.