SF 49ers: Last Six Weeks

[Dantés]

I wanted to get a sense for how the 49ers have been playing lately, so I did some digging into their last six games, including yesterday' playoff win.

This is a pretty solid sample, not just because it's recent, but also because four of the six games were against playoff opponents (Bengals, Titans, Rams, Cowboys). The only loss in this run was against Tennessee. The Niners only finished the season 10-7, but it's worth noting that five of those losses came in the first eight games. They have been very potent in the second half of the season.

So what have they looked like recently?

Points/Game: 24.5

Points/Game Allowed: 17.3

Net Pass Yds/Game: 254

Net Pass Yds/Game Allowed: 213

Net Pass YPA: 8.5

Net Pass YPA Allowed: 6.3

Rush Yards/Game: 137

Rush Yards/Game Allowed: 78

Rush YPC: 4.54

Rush YPC Allowed: 3.14

3rd Down Success: 46%

3rd Down Success Allowed: 43%

Basically the way that I'd boil it down is that their defense has been excellent down the stretch, which has allowed their offense to stay on its preferred script. Shanahan's preferred gameplan is probably something like 42/58 in favor of the running game. They aren't an effective team in the downfield or drop-back passing games. They thrive in the running game and the YAC game.

Their two best players on defense, Bosa and Warner, were both dinged up in yesterday's game (concussion and I want to say ankle, respectively). If they're limited, that will be a blow to their recent formula. Their weakness on defense is easily the secondary. Outside of Jimmie Ward, every regular contributor at corner or safety is below average to downright bad.

They've papered over that with ferocious pressure-- nearly 5 sacks per game in these last six outings. That's how they managed to edge out Cincinnati; Burrow carved them up (over 10 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT) but took 5 sacks that killed drives.

If the Packers can protect Rodgers (and he can protect himself), he will shred their secondary. And if he does that, and puts their offense off-script, Garoppolo will fall apart. That's the path back to the NFCCG. If the offense sputters because of negative plays, and the 49ers can just lean on the GB defense, it's going to be a very long game.

 

[Poppa San]

The didn't change their offensive script even down 17 to the Rams.

 

[Dantés]

The didn't change their offensive script even down 17 to the Rams.

That's true, but they would have had to if that deficit had remained later into the game. That became a one score contest with over 25 minutes left.

 

[realitybytez]

I wanted to get a sense for how the 49ers have been playing lately, so I did some digging into their last six games, including yesterday' playoff win.

This is a pretty solid sample, not just because it's recent, but also because four of the six games were against playoff opponents (Bengals, Titans, Rams, Cowboys). The only loss in this run was against Tennessee. The Niners only finished the season 10-7, but it's worth noting that five of those losses came in the first eight games. They have been very potent in the second half of the season.

So what have they looked like recently?

Points/Game: 24.5

Points/Game Allowed: 17.3

Net Pass Yds/Game: 254

Net Pass Yds/Game Allowed: 213

Net Pass YPA: 8.5

Net Pass YPA Allowed: 6.3

Rush Yards/Game: 137

Rush Yards/Game Allowed: 78

Rush YPC: 4.54

Rush YPC Allowed: 3.14

3rd Down Success: 46%

3rd Down Success Allowed: 43%

Basically the way that I'd boil it down is that their defense has been excellent down the stretch, which has allowed their offense to stay on its preferred script. Shanahan's preferred gameplan is probably something like 42/58 in favor of the running game. They aren't an effective team in the downfield or drop-back passing games. They thrive in the running game and the YAC game.

Their two best players on defense, Bosa and Warner, were both dinged up in yesterday's game (concussion and I want to say ankle, respectively). If they're limited, that will be a blow to their recent formula. Their weakness on defense is easily the secondary. Outside of Jimmie Ward, every regular contributor at corner or safety is below average to downright bad.

They've papered over that with ferocious pressure-- nearly 5 sacks per game in these last six outings. That's how they managed to edge out Cincinnati; Burrow carved them up (over 10 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT) but took 5 sacks that killed drives.

If the Packers can protect Rodgers (and he can protect himself), he will shred their secondary. And if he does that, and puts their offense off-script, Garoppolo will fall apart. That's the path back to the NFCCG. If the offense sputters because of negative plays, and the 49ers can just lean on the GB defense, it's going to be a very long game.

good post, but over those last six games, they lost to the seahawks and the titans. they barely beat the rams and the bengals (both games went into overtime). and they had decisive wins against two bad teams (houston and atlanta).

i'm not saying i disagree with anything in your post. i'm just adding some context.

 

[Dantés]

good post, but over those last six games, they lost to the seahawks and the titans. they barely beat the rams and the bengals (both games went into overtime). and they had decisive wins against two bad teams (houston and atlanta).

i'm not saying i disagree with anything in your post. i'm just adding some context.

Yeah, I didn't include the Seattle game because it isn't one of their most recent six games.

They certainly aren't world beaters. They're a flawed team. But they're dangerous.

I think the Packers win by two scores.

 

[realitybytez]

Yeah, I didn't include the Seattle game because it isn't one of their most recent six games.

They certainly aren't world beaters. They're a flawed team. But they're dangerous.

I think the Packers win by two scores.

sorry i thought you meant the last six regular season games.

 

[PackAttack12]

sorry i thought you meant the last six regular season games.

Got to make sure you read the whole post

 

[realitybytez]

Got to make sure you read the whole post

he only mentioned it a few times.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I wanted to get a sense for how the 49ers have been playing lately, so I did some digging into their last six games, including yesterday' playoff win.

This is a pretty solid sample, not just because it's recent, but also because four of the six games were against playoff opponents (Bengals, Titans, Rams, Cowboys). The only loss in this run was against Tennessee. The Niners only finished the season 10-7, but it's worth noting that five of those losses came in the first eight games. They have been very potent in the second half of the season.

So what have they looked like recently?

Points/Game: 24.5

Points/Game Allowed: 17.3

Net Pass Yds/Game: 254

Net Pass Yds/Game Allowed: 213

Net Pass YPA: 8.5

Net Pass YPA Allowed: 6.3

Rush Yards/Game: 137

Rush Yards/Game Allowed: 78

Rush YPC: 4.54

Rush YPC Allowed: 3.14

3rd Down Success: 46%

3rd Down Success Allowed: 43%

Basically the way that I'd boil it down is that their defense has been excellent down the stretch, which has allowed their offense to stay on its preferred script. Shanahan's preferred gameplan is probably something like 42/58 in favor of the running game. They aren't an effective team in the downfield or drop-back passing games. They thrive in the running game and the YAC game.

Their two best players on defense, Bosa and Warner, were both dinged up in yesterday's game (concussion and I want to say ankle, respectively). If they're limited, that will be a blow to their recent formula. Their weakness on defense is easily the secondary. Outside of Jimmie Ward, every regular contributor at corner or safety is below average to downright bad.

They've papered over that with ferocious pressure-- nearly 5 sacks per game in these last six outings. That's how they managed to edge out Cincinnati; Burrow carved them up (over 10 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT) but took 5 sacks that killed drives.

If the Packers can protect Rodgers (and he can protect himself), he will shred their secondary. And if he does that, and puts their offense off-script, Garoppolo will fall apart. That's the path back to the NFCCG. If the offense sputters because of negative plays, and the 49ers can just lean on the GB defense, it's going to be a very long game.

From what Nantz and Romeo were saying yesterday, the Niners don’t blitz a lot. That may be because of a weak secondary, dropping LBs into coverage on pass plays. They blitzed at just the right time yesterday, late in the game. Prescott went down but still got the pass away and damn-near completed it.

I think Bosa will be back. Concussions usually resolve within a week and I didn’t see anything about the hit that was nasty (it looked like a knee to the side of the helmet from a teammate). Warner’s injury looked more serious. It looked like it was non-contact and it turned out to be an ankle. He was helped off the field and didn’t return. If he missed the game, it should help the Packers run between the tackles.

We’ll see. I expect the Packers will be around 5 or 6 point faves, which doesn’t mean much. The weather may be more of a factor. The Niners haven’t played much at Lambeau recently.

 

[Dantés]

From what Nantz and Romeo were saying yesterday, the Niners don’t blitz a lot. That may be because of a weak secondary, dropping LBs into coverage on pass plays. They blitzed at just the right time yesterday, late in the game. Prescott went down but still got the pass away and damn-near completed it.

I think Bosa will be back. Concussions usually resolve within a week and I didn’t see anything about the hit that was nasty (it looked like a knee to the side of the helmet from a teammate). Warner’s injury looked more serious. It looked like it was non-contact and it turned out to be an ankle. He was helped off the field and didn’t return. If he missed the game, it should help the Packers run between the tackles.

We’ll see. I expect the Packers will be around 5 or 6 point faves, which doesn’t mean much. The weather may be more of a factor. The Niners haven’t played much at Lambeau recently.

Yeah, PFR has the Niners as a ~20% blitz team, which is 4th from the bottom (GB is around 21%; not much higher).

Meanwhile, their pressure % (again, per PFR) is very comparable-- just around 24%.

The difference is that SF converts more of their pressures to sacks (32% vs 23%).

 

[PackAttack12]

From what Nantz and Romeo were saying yesterday, the Niners don’t blitz a lot. That may be because of a weak secondary, dropping LBs into coverage on pass plays. They blitzed at just the right time yesterday, late in the game. Prescott went down but still got the pass away and damn-near completed it.

I think Bosa will be back. Concussions usually resolve within a week and I didn’t see anything about the hit that was nasty (it looked like a knee to the side of the helmet from a teammate). Warner’s injury looked more serious. It looked like it was non-contact and it turned out to be an ankle. He was helped off the field and didn’t return. If he missed the game, it should help the Packers run between the tackles.

We’ll see. I expect the Packers will be around 5 or 6 point faves, which doesn’t mean much. The weather may be more of a factor. The Niners haven’t played much at Lambeau recently.

Part of it is that SF's secondary isn't that good, but a big part of it is also that their front 4 are so good that they can usually generate enough pressure with 4 that blitzing isn't necessary. Might as well leave those extra defenders in coverage.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Part of it is that SF's secondary isn't that good, but a big part of it is also that their front 4 are so good that they can usually generate enough pressure with 4 that blitzing isn't necessary. Might as well leave those extra defenders in coverage.

That's a good point. Also highlights why GB needs to get Clark some help in the off season. Nice that Lowry is getting hot at the right time.

 

[eldapeeze]

good post, but over those last six games, they lost to the seahawks and the titans. they barely beat the rams and the bengals (both games went into overtime). and they had decisive wins against two bad teams (houston and atlanta).

i'm not saying i disagree with anything in your post. i'm just adding some context.

Hmmm, this doesn't sound like context, it sounds like criticism. The 49ers beat the Rams and Bengals the last few weeks, both playoff teams that won their respective playoff games. They aren't easy games. You say they barely beat the Bengals, yet the Packers also "barely" beat the Bengals in OT. Seahawks are a bad matchup. Always have, always will. It's a divisional game. Just like the Packers somehow lost to the Vikings.

49ers are 8-2 in the last 10 games including knocking off Dallas. I'm not saying the 49ers are going to win Saturday, but they are more than capable of going on a run. Your criticism is weird.

 

[realitybytez]

Your criticism is weird.

it wasn't criticism. so your criticism is even weirder.

 

[jetfixer]

That's a good point. Also highlights why GB needs to get Clark some help in the off season. Nice that Lowry is getting hot at the right time.

I have a feeling we might see 3 edge rushers on the field this weekend many plays.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Hmmm, this doesn't sound like context, it sounds like criticism. The 49ers beat the Rams and Bengals the last few weeks, both playoff teams that won their respective playoff games. They aren't easy games. You say they barely beat the Bengals, yet the Packers also "barely" beat the Bengals in OT. Seahawks are a bad matchup. Always have, always will. It's a divisional game. Just like the Packers somehow lost to the Vikings.

49ers are 8-2 in the last 10 games including knocking off Dallas. I'm not saying the 49ers are going to win Saturday, but they are more than capable of going on a run. Your criticism is weird.

All we have to do is remember how the last Packer SB run started, as a #6 (last) seed. GB beat Philly, Atlanta, and Chicago all on the road to get to the SB where they beat Pittsburgh. The playoffs have always been about who is hot and healthy. The Niners are certainly hot. The Packers won't take them lightly with MLF around. It's gonna be a close game. Advantage Packers because of home field and QB. The winner will be the one to shut down the other team's strong points. I think the Packers need to put a spy on Deebo and make Jimmy G beat them. We'll see! Go Pack!

 

[thequick12]

Its a shame that alexanders coming back from a shoulder because hed seem like a great guy to shadow deebo

 

[OldSchool101]

I wanted to get a sense for how the 49ers have been playing lately, so I did some digging into their last six games, including yesterday' playoff win.

This is a pretty solid sample, not just because it's recent, but also because four of the six games were against playoff opponents (Bengals, Titans, Rams, Cowboys). The only loss in this run was against Tennessee. The Niners only finished the season 10-7, but it's worth noting that five of those losses came in the first eight games. They have been very potent in the second half of the season.

So what have they looked like recently?

Points/Game: 24.5

Points/Game Allowed: 17.3

Net Pass Yds/Game: 254

Net Pass Yds/Game Allowed: 213

Net Pass YPA: 8.5

Net Pass YPA Allowed: 6.3

Rush Yards/Game: 137

Rush Yards/Game Allowed: 78

Rush YPC: 4.54

Rush YPC Allowed: 3.14

3rd Down Success: 46%

3rd Down Success Allowed: 43%

Basically the way that I'd boil it down is that their defense has been excellent down the stretch, which has allowed their offense to stay on its preferred script. Shanahan's preferred gameplan is probably something like 42/58 in favor of the running game. They aren't an effective team in the downfield or drop-back passing games. They thrive in the running game and the YAC game.

Their two best players on defense, Bosa and Warner, were both dinged up in yesterday's game (concussion and I want to say ankle, respectively). If they're limited, that will be a blow to their recent formula. Their weakness on defense is easily the secondary. Outside of Jimmie Ward, every regular contributor at corner or safety is below average to downright bad.

They've papered over that with ferocious pressure-- nearly 5 sacks per game in these last six outings. That's how they managed to edge out Cincinnati; Burrow carved them up (over 10 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT) but took 5 sacks that killed drives.

If the Packers can protect Rodgers (and he can protect himself), he will shred their secondary. And if he does that, and puts their offense off-script, Garoppolo will fall apart. That's the path back to the NFCCG. If the offense sputters because of negative plays, and the 49ers can just lean on the GB defense, it's going to be a very long game.

Good info.
I’d be somewhat uncomfortable several weeks ago at our OL vs. their DL. I think we are evening that trenches score by getting back 2-3 original OL members. I just think those guys returning are more apt to not to be bullrushed. Newman would’ve gotten smothered and I’d attack him every play. I think Patrick has more fight in him.

I’m not counting on injuries to make a huge difference Pass protection wise unless Bosa or Warner limits snaps or is out. Partly because our guys may not be at their peak either. However it doesn’t hurt (no pun) to have SF sore and playing at 15 degrees. Everything hurts more in the cold cold.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Its a shame that alexanders coming back from a shoulder because hed seem like a great guy to shadow deebo

Good point. Just my opinion, but the Packers need to assign a shadow or spy to Deebo. Everyone on D would know who that player is and that would allow GB to swarm to the ball. If they can have some success just containing Deebo, they'll win. Make Jimmy G beat us. He can't against our secondary, even without Alexander. Alexander just makes it possible to spell Douglas and Stokes, and PLEASE keep King on the bench. Our secondary would be better rested in Q4 as well.

 

[PackerFanLV]

They are not built to play from behind, if we can stop the run and get up on them i think we win the game. Make jimmy G beat us.

 

[PackAttack12]

They are not built to play from behind, if we can stop the run and get up on them i think we win the game. Make jimmy G beat us.

As much as I love deferring to the 2nd half, I'd almost be willing to take the football and cram it down the 49ers throats on the 1st possession and controlling the game from start to finish.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

As mentioned by several posters in this thread the Packers need to stop the run and make Garoppolo beat them. If the Niners need to rely on their quarterback to win the game I don't think they stand a chance.

 

[El Guapo]

In regards to the strength of San Francisco's wins, as was pointed out, many were against playoff teams. Beatdowns or not, they were wins. All that matters this Saturday night is whether or not we win - not how decisively it happens. San Francisco seems to be finding a way to win important game and that is the scary component of this matchup. We should win. I expect the Packers to win. I hope that we win.

 

[Heyjoe4]

As much as I love deferring to the 2nd half, I'd almost be willing to take the football and cram it down the 49ers throats on the 1st possession and controlling the game from start to finish.

It's a good idea. Problem is the Packers have been notoriously slow starters. But in a home game with very cold weather, I'd take the chance and the ball to start. The Niners just don't play well from behind and it's mostly because of their passing game. They're not built to put up a lot of points in a short time.

 

[PackAttack12]

It's a good idea. Problem is the Packers have been notoriously slow starters. But in a home game with very cold weather, I'd take the chance and the ball to start. The Niners just don't play well from behind and it's mostly because of their passing game. They're not built to put up a lot of points in a short time.

Yeah. Probably best to defer. Because the crowd is going to be absolutely jacked to start the game. Get that noise level up and hopefully generate a quick 3 and out.