Sammy Watkins Resurgence

[Deleted member 6794]

We do not have a proven Receiving core and stressing that aspect early to open our Run game is an asz backwards formula for success.

I'm not advocating for the Packers to start a game throwing the ball to set up the run by any means. But I fully expect defenses to focus on stopping the run early and not moving away from it as long as Rodgers and his receiving corps don't make them pay for it.

Although I think you have to consider that the Packers are one of a handful off teams with the personnel to stuff the ball down the vast majority of opponents throats. OL+RB combined.

Dillon might be build to make it work but I don't believe Jones and offensive line excel at it.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Dillon might be build to make it work but I don't believe Jones and offensive line excel at it.

I gotta disagree. Dillon is huge but that really helps mostly against the second-level guys; linebackers and safeties really don't want to touch him. An extra 40 pounds sounds like a lot but it's not that much if the RB is trying to run through a 300+ pound defensive lineman. I actually think Jones has, historically at least, been really good in short yardage situations. Being able to cut and squeeze through small gaps is far more likely to get by a DT than trying to run over him.

By midseason I think the oline will be in decent shape to really help the run game (once Jenkins is healthy) but early on in the year it might get kind of rough at times.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm not advocating for the Packers to start a game throwing the ball to set up the run by any means. But I fully expect defenses to focus on stopping the run early and not moving away from it as long as Rodgers and his receiving corps don't make them pay for it.



Dillon might be build to make it work but I don't believe Jones and offensive line excel at it.

Last year we lost 4 OL starters. 2022 won’t be 2021 at OL. Aaron Jones paired with AJ Dillon is one of the most formidable RB duos league wide. They actually are a near ideal complimentary pairing. You have to have an OL though, that’s where it all starts. Hopefully won’t replace our entire OL again in 2022.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I gotta disagree. Dillon is huge but that really helps mostly against the second-level guys; linebackers and safeties really don't want to touch him. An extra 40 pounds sounds like a lot but it's not that much if the RB is trying to run through a 300+ pound defensive lineman. I actually think Jones has, historically at least, been really good in short yardage situations. Being able to cut and squeeze through small gaps is far more likely to get by a DT than trying to run over him.

Dillon has actually better numbers than Jones in short yardage situations (three or less yards to go).

First down percentage:
Dillon 80.0%
Jones 65.4%

Yards per carry:
Dillon 4.47
Jones 4.02

Last year we lost 4 OL starters. 2022 won’t be 2021 at OL. Aaron Jones paired with AJ Dillon is one of the most formidable RB duos league wide. They actually are a near ideal complimentary pairing. You have to have an OL though, that’s where it all starts. Hopefully won’t replace our entire OL again in 2022.

I don't believe the Packers' offensive line, even when healthy, is build to excel at blocking for the run.

 

[OldSchool101]

Dillon has actually better numbers than Jones in short yardage situations (three or less yards to go).
I don't believe the Packers' offensive line, even when healthy, is build to excel at blocking for the run.

You can’t judge a team by a season where the OL suffered record losses from injury (2021 season)

The Packers were #8 in Rushing yards in 2020 (2,118)
As a comparison our passing yards were inferior to that at #9 overall in 2020. I’m sure you’ll want to check that because it’s actually surprising and impressive. You see, It was the combination of the strength of BOTH phases that elevated our top notch O status in 2020. We were both right in that earlier argument. The run elevated the pass, in turn that pass elevated the running game. The 2020 pass protectors were possibly better though, hence our huge Redzone success.

It’s my opinion that our OL will see a resurgence in that 2020 season rushing area (2,000-2,200 yards)
We now have 2 hungry, we’ll-versed RB’s in their prime and a plethora of Run blocking talent in our OL room. Likely we will also see 1-2 Probowl level Tackles injected into the mix. If Jenkins moves RT, we’ll be stout at OL. That combination will send ripple effects and results in 4-5 pretty good players vying for those 1-2 remaining Guard spots. It’s why we are all so uptight about Bak, innately we know he’s the cannonball dropping that starts the big wave ripple.

I can’t remember another season since maybe Lacy/Starks in 2013 (2,136 rushing) that had as much potential as the one we have now. You’d have to go back to the 2003 season (Ahman Green/Davenport) to make a good, solid argument for a OL+RB grouping better than this current roster.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You can’t judge a team by a season where the OL suffered record losses from injury (2021 season)

I'm not judging the offensive line based on last season.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Packers will have an excellent OL this year but they're build to excel in pass protection and not to open up holes in the running game if opponents stack the box.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm not judging the offensive line based on last season.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Packers will have an excellent OL this year but they're build to excel in pass protection and not to open up holes in the running game if opponents stack the box.

Oh I see. Well that probably rings true for all but a few elite running teams.
Keep in mind. I’m not suggesting is abandoning the Passing game, but balancing it better with Run.
Also using our TE’s or RB more to get the ball out quicker in that 5+ yard range when teams overcommit

I think we will see 1 OG from last season eventually displaced by competition. Then now having Runyon with significant game experience going into year 2? That’s a positive factor.
I am banking on the return of Bak, that factor alone changes the entire way we function. If we get both Bak and Jenkins playing together? We should see our Run game flourish. Sean Ryan transitions better inside and excels at Run blocking.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Oh I see. Well that probably rings true for all but a few elite running teams.

My point is that the Packers offensive line is elite compared to others in pass protection but might be below average in blocking for the run.

 

[OldSchool101]

My point is that the Packers offensive line is elite compared to others in pass protection but might be below average in blocking for the run.

There’s nothing elite about it unless we get our starting OL back. If that happens? We’ve likely got about 5 veteran OL battling for 2 Guard spots. That doesn’t even take into effect Sean Rhyan trying to box his way into that starting group. Plus Marcedes Lewis holding the Edge.

I think our Run game could start average, as teams try testing us, but as the season progresses we will drop into that top 10 range.

Although I am praying that our opponents will similarly underestimate our Running attack.. we’ve got 2 RBs with over 2,200+ all-purpose and 17TD’s but you are correct, we can’t run worth a hoot!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

There’s nothing elite about it unless we get our starting OL back. If that happens? We’ve likely got about 5 veteran OL battling for 2 Guard spots.

Just out of curiosity, who are those five veteran offensive linemen you're talking about.

Although I am praying that our opponents will similarly underestimate our Running attack.. we’ve got 2 RBs with over 2,200+ all-purpose and 17TD’s but you are correct, we can’t run worth a hoot!

You really need to read more carefully

 

[Sunshinepacker]

There’s nothing elite about it unless we get our starting OL back. If that happens? We’ve likely got about 5 veteran OL battling for 2 Guard spots. That doesn’t even take into effect Sean Rhyan trying to box his way into that starting group. Plus Marcedes Lewis holding the Edge.

I think our Run game could start average, as teams try testing us, but as the season progresses we will drop into that top 10 range.

Although I am praying that our opponents will similarly underestimate our Running attack.. we’ve got 2 RBs with over 2,200+ all-purpose and 17TD’s but you are correct, we can’t run worth a hoot!

Most football analysts have the Packers oline as one of the best in the NFL. Yes, that's assuming the Packers get one of the top-2 LTs in the league back from injury but the oline is absolutely one of the best in pass protection in the NFL (now how much of that has to do with Rodgers is debatable). The run blocking will probably be decent until Jenkins gets back but I could see it being above-average one Jenkins is back and healthy.

Last season the Packers actually ran the fairly well, the Packers offense is just really slow so the total number of offensive plays is pretty low compared to other elite offenses. Packers were 15th in offensive plays (I'm just using pass attempts plus rush attempts from pro football reference), 17th in rush attempts, and league average in yards per run attempt (six teams, including Packers, average 4.3 yards per attempt). Certainly not elite but better than a hoot, imo.

Saw some pretty good evidence that Packers run playcalling is actually pretty predictable and that could very well be one of the primary reasons the run game underperforms at times. I'll provide the link below but an analyst working on a paper posted the change in the distance between the LB/SS and the RB after two seconds (e.g., how quickly the linebackers/safeties are recognizing the play and flowing to the RB); best in the NFL was (no surprise) the 49ers at 1.02 yards while the worst in the NFL were the...Green Bay Packers! Linebackers/SS closed the gap by 1.99 yards after two seconds. Certainly not a comprehensive test but there's got to be a reason that run defenders move towards the running back more quickly against the Packers than they do against any other team in the league.

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[Schultz]

I am hesitant to compare last years rushing attack to this year's potential rushing attack because of the loss of Adams.

 

[OldSchool101]

You really need to read more carefully

I’m sorry.. I.. uh.. I’m..s so.slow. One sec please?

Just out of curiosity, who are those five veteran offensive linemen you're talking about.

Hanson, Runyon, Newman, Van Lanen, Minet.
Plus Rookies Schneider, Rhyan, Tom, and Moore. You could technically add a 6th veteran (Myers) who’s listed as a C/G, but I think we’d agree he’s probably entrenched over Tom. Technically up to 6 veterans though if Rookie Tom took a C role. Hence I used 5 veterans

You really need to read more carefully

OOh! ooh! I think I got it. thithis time. Sorry to hold you up They don’t call me Arnold Horshack for nothing!

 

[Dantés]

Through four games last season with the Ravens, Watkins had 16 catches, 257 yards, 16 YPR.

He then got hurt during his 5th game, and missed all or most of the next 4. By the time he was back, up and running, Rashod Bateman had gotten healthy and was playing a lot of snaps. He ate into a lot of Watkins' playing time and then Watkins got dinged up again.

The point is that Watkins opened the season on pace for 68 receptions and just over 1000 yards (17 games). He failed to achieve anything close to that due to injury. That's the bigger issue with him-- not ability, but availability.

If he's healthy, I think he will be a good contributor. Realistically, maybe 13 games, 52 receptions, 750 yards, and a few scores.

 

[OldSchool101]

Through four games last season with the Ravens, Watkins had 16 catches, 257 yards, 16 YPR.

He then got hurt during his 5th game, and missed all or most of the next 4. By the time he was back, up and running, Rashod Bateman had gotten healthy and was playing a lot of snaps. He ate into a lot of Watkins' playing time and then Watkins got dinged up again.

The point is that Watkins opened the season on pace for 68 receptions and just over 1000 yards (17 games). He failed to achieve anything close to that due to injury. That's the bigger issue with him-- not ability, but availability.

If he's healthy, I think he will be a good contributor. Realistically, maybe 13 games, 52 receptions, 750 yards, and a few scores.

What do you think he’s capable of if he miraculously played a full season? (let’s call it 16 games for a realistic
1 game allowance) and no I’m not setting you up , just curious your thoughts.
Say if he got some mojo going early with Rodgers?

 

[Poppa San]

Realistically, maybe 13 games, 52 receptions, 750 yards, and a few scores.

I hope to see these numbers or within 10% for 5 of the six WRs most people have pencilled in. For Cobb I think this is a stretch.

 

[Schultz]

I’m sorry.. I.. uh.. I’m..s so.slow. One sec please?

Hanson, Runyon, Newman, Van Lanen, Minet.
Plus Rookies Schneider, Rhyan, Tom, and Moore. You could technically add a 6th veteran (Myers) who’s listed as a C/G, but I think we’d agree he’s probably entrenched over Tom. Technically up to 6 veterans though if Rookie Tom took a C role. Hence I used 5 veterans


OOh! ooh! I think I got it. thithis time. Sorry to hold you up They don’t call me Arnold Horshack for nothing!

Your definition of veteran and mine are much different.

 

[OldSchool101]

Your definition of veteran and mine are much different.

Our definitions of just about everything are different Schultz, but I love you just the same. Your texts remind me of my wife.. thats so endearing

 

[OldSchool101]

Most football analysts have the Packers oline as one of the best in the NFL. Yes, that's assuming the Packers get one of the top-2 LTs in the league back from injury but the oline is absolutely one of the best in pass protection in the NFL (now how much of that has to do with Rodgers is debatable). The run blocking will probably be decent until Jenkins gets back but I could see it being above-average one Jenkins is back and healthy.

Last season the Packers actually ran the fairly well, the Packers offense is just really slow so the total number of offensive plays is pretty low compared to other elite offenses. Packers were 15th in offensive plays (I'm just using pass attempts plus rush attempts from pro football reference), 17th in rush attempts, and league average in yards per run attempt (six teams, including Packers, average 4.3 yards per attempt). Certainly not elite but better than a hoot, imo.

Saw some pretty good evidence that Packers run playcalling is actually pretty predictable and that could very well be one of the primary reasons the run game underperforms at times. I'll provide the link below but an analyst working on a paper posted the change in the distance between the LB/SS and the RB after two seconds (e.g., how quickly the linebackers/safeties are recognizing the play and flowing to the RB); best in the NFL was (no surprise) the 49ers at 1.02 yards while the worst in the NFL were the...Green Bay Packers! Linebackers/SS closed the gap by 1.99 yards after two seconds. Certainly not a comprehensive test but there's got to be a reason that run defenders move towards the running back more quickly against the Packers than they do against any other team in the league.

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Would love to see the comparison with the 2020 Packers OL on that metric. Curious to see if OL health magnifies those results etc..??
If I'm a DC? I'm going to attack that 2021 banged up Packers OL using the K.C. template, until I'm shown you can hold pass protection and beat me deep. That means bringing an extra man into the box equation just after the snap as not to advertise who I'm sending

 

[gopkrs]

I don't believe the Packers' offensive line, even when healthy, is build to excel at blocking for the run.

I'm hoping you are off base. When both Jenkins and and Bak are back; maybe Bak will be the weakest run blocker. I am hoping Myers with his smarts and quickness will help out the guards. And right now I'm hoping our rookie OL from UCLA will be good enough to start.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Sadly...Watkins bad luck with injuries continues....put on IR

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[milani]

Sadly...Watkins bad luck with injuries continues....put on IR

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Well, I think everyone can change their vote to NO now.

 

[Spanky]

I'm shocked that Watkins was placed on IR. Shocked I tell you.

 

[Packerbacker1996]

Release Watkins with injury settlement etc.. and let's sign Antonio Brown.

Unless we are nit planning to contend for SB this year in which case qe don't need AB.

Still to early to tell how this team will shape up however. By week 5-6 we have a better idea about our D# and by week 8-10 we should have some indication if our rookie WRs are going to be good enough to make at run at SB.

I still think signing Anonio Brown in a no Brainerd if you thinking SB.

 

[Schultz]

I only agree with signing AB if Favre was still the QB.