Runningback Situation

[sschind]

http://nypost.com/2016/05/25/eddie-lacy-lost-weight-because-he-stopped-drinking-so-much/

He also missed curfew every game day..

Coaches are fed up with him.. It will take a lot to get him to turn coaches around

I read that NYP article (isn't that kind of like the enquirer) I don't put a lot of stock in it. It stems from one quote from a guy he trained with for a short time. I think Eddie had a much bigger problem with his eating habits and a change in that had a far bigger impact on his recent weight loss. Its not as exciting as basically saying he has a drinking problem though so they went with the **** headline and slant. Eddie Lacy lost weight because he quit drinking is going to get far more hits than Eddie lacy lost weight because he quit eating crawfish. Both were mentioned in the quote form Horton but no one is saying he has a crawfish eating problem. As far as curfew I thought he only missed one. The one that caused the team mate to get cut. I may be wrong on that but I still haven't read anything that convinces me he has or had a drinking problem.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I'm always pleasantly surprised to see what some of the teams award in bonus money to less than All-Pro ability. The best part is that it continues to happen every year.

Green Bay is not exempt.

 

[Arthur Squires]

I never heard Lacy missing any curfews besides the time him and Alonzo Harris were both past curfew. They ended up cutting Alonzo Harris. Cant remember what the punishment was for Lacy.

 

[longtimefan]

I never heard Lacy missing any curfews besides the time him and Alonzo Harris were both past curfew. They ended up cutting Alonzo Harris. Cant remember what the punishment was for Lacy.

Of course you won't hear it..

I don't expect people to believe me and that's OK..

After all there is no possible way I could know. Even if a relative or a friend is on the team, they would never let out things like that

 

[PikeBadger]

Green Bay is not exempt.

Rodgers and Matthews (possibly Woodson) are the only players we've had that I think scored big contracts with bonus money exceeding 15 million or was significantly more than 25% of contract. I don't recall the specifics of Peppers contract so I could be wrong by not including him.

The fact is, we have been exempt up to now imo. Take a look at some of the crazy contracts with huge bonuses being signed out there. Moreover, the die has been cast as to how management structures contracts. Shields, Nelson, Cobb and Bulaga are under very similar contracts. Only the very best are getting big bonuses here.

 

[TeamTundra]

Both Cobb and Montgomery took snaps from the running back position
during tonight's practice.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If Lacy shows he can stay disciplined and keep his weight under 235...He will definitely see a frenzy from other teams throwing Monster #s his way. Personally if Lacy puts up career numbers and stays healthy this season, I'd like to see him rewarded with a healthy contract. But no more than 7mil per year. The risk factor is too great.

After what happened last season there's no reason to trust Lacy to stay motivated and in shape after getting a lucrative long-term contract. I would be fine with the Packers offering him an incentive-laden contract next offseason but for sure not giving him a significant signing bonus, base salary or guaranteed money.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Rodgers and Matthews (possibly Woodson) are the only players we've had that I think scored big contracts with bonus money exceeding 15 million or was significantly more than 25% of contract. I don't recall the specifics of Peppers contract so I could be wrong by not including him.

The fact is, we have been exempt up to now imo. Take a look at some of the crazy contracts with huge bonuses being signed out there. Moreover, the die has been cast as to how management structures contracts. Shields, Nelson, Cobb and Bulaga are under very similar contracts. Only the very best are getting big bonuses here.

Based on $15 million in signing bonuses under current contracts, you would be correct. That's Rodgers and Matthews only. However, you can't compare contracts from just a couple of years ago to recent ones under the escalating cap.

For example, Burnett's contract is the second richest in per year total value (Chancellor is first) and the highest in guarantees among safety contracts signed in 2013 or prior that are still on the books. At the time, the contract was surprisingly rich with a Pro Bowl-level projection embedded in it.

Or consider the deal Hawk signed after the 2010 season. That was a Pro Bowl-level contract as well, with a signing bonus creating sufficient dead cap to make his replacement prohibitive despite a steep decline evidenced by 2012. It was not until the dead cap was manageable for 2015 that we saw his departure. While Brad Jones' deal was not among the richest in the league, dead cap played into the timing of his release past the sell-by date.

The only 2015 Packer 2015 big dollar contract is Mike Daniels. Compare and contrast his deal with the recent deals for non-Pro Bowl peers. It is not cheap in terms of total value or signing bonus:

http://overthecap.com/position/3-4-defensive-end/

There are a couple of levels to look at in terms of risk in a contract. Signing bonus is one, in terms of the deferred liability, but that's just one element to consider. We often hear that total guarantees are representative of risk. While this true, there are other important considerations. The players who get big guarantees are not typically the kinds of players who drop out of the l league from injury. Even if ability is diminished, they're typically still good enough to play. It's the marginal players who do regularly do not survive in the league after diminishment of ability.

The real measure of a contract is the dead cap and cap savings and the year at which the amount ceases to be prohibitive in considering a players release in the event of performance decline by injury or otherwise.

Let's take Daniels' contract as an example since it was signed under the current salary cap level, with a singing bonus in line with peers:

http://overthecap.com/player/mike-daniels/1126/

Let's say he blew his ACL tomorrow. Are you going to cut him? Of course not. Why? Besides the fact he's a good young player with a good chance to maintain at least starter level performance upon return, you'd incur $13.4 million in dead cap and a $6 mil cap loss in 2015. With cap space currently at $8.5 mil for the top 51, you'd take cap space down to near zero when cutting him even if he broke his neck, which is out of the question going into the season. It could drive cap under zero depending on the IR body count and the cost of replacements entering the season.

Let's say instead he blew his ACL at this time next year. Or lets say his performance simply declined after getting the big contract. Would you cut him then? Well, the cap savings would be only $3.2 million. It would take a precipitous decline to even consider it since the question would be, "can you replace him with equivalent performance on a 1 year, $3.2 million contract". That's a very low bar. And when you consider that one of the Packers' more obvious elements of cap philosophy is "no meaningful dead cap!" the bar goes lower. This Packer philosophy, together will reluctance to seek replacements in the free agent market, may factor into an agent's view toward taking less signing bonus in exchange for other considerations.

It isn't until 2018 where injury or decline comes into play where the cap savings is $5.1 mil. Then again, the dead cap is $4,8 million, the kind of amounts the Packers avoid incurring like the plague.

Add it all up, and the practical affect given dead cap/cap savings under Packer philosophy is that Daniels' signing bonus, 2016 and 2017 salaries, and the roster bonuses for those seasons are effectively guaranteed short of an actual career ending, but not a career-threatening, injury: $24 million. He's certainly a good player, a core player, but some measure of his value is the relative weakness of the positions group, or what I refer to as "who else ya got?"

Now consider why the Packers might be pressed against the salary cap with a big crop of key free agents hitting the market next season. Whether you look at Cobb, Nelson, Shields, Bulaga or Daniels, or even Matthews high ticket contract, the cap numbers escalate year by year through the contract. Consider the 2017 cap numbers, dead cap and cap savings in those high ticket contracts even without the $15+ mil signing bonuses:

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/

Even if you don't expect performance up to the cap number when the time comes, the players will be kept so long as expected performance exceeds the cap savings. And it seems with cases in the past, the dead cap has been the determining factor in what may be regarded as wishful thinking.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The only 2015 Packer 2015 big dollar contract is Mike Daniels. Compare and contrast his deal with the recent deals for non-Pro Bowl peers. It is not cheap in terms of total value or signing bonus.

While Daniels' deal is for sure not cheap the Packers got a huge bargain signing him to that contract at the end of last year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

While Daniels' deal is for sure not cheap the Packers got a huge bargain signing him to that contract at the end of last year.

By what measure? It looks about in line with other recent deals.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

By what measure? It looks about in line with other recent deals.

Daniels' deal is a bargain compared to the contracts of Muhammad Wilkerson (five years, $86 million, $36.75 million fully guaranteed) and Malik Jackson (six years, $85.5 million, $31.5 million fully guaranteed).

 

[HardRightEdge]

Of course you won't hear it..

I don't expect people to believe me and that's OK..

After all there is no possible way I could know. Even if a relative or a friend is on the team, they would never let out things like that

I find it quite plausible that Lacy and his running mate Alonzo Harris missed curfew more than once. That a star player would be benched and another being summarily cut for a first-time infraction as opposed to a fine or stern warning, is implausible. It's reasonable to think stern warnings had been previously issued, and Harris had to stand as an example to the locker room.

 

[Ace]

Of course you won't hear it..

I don't expect people to believe me and that's OK..

After all there is no possible way I could know. Even if a relative or a friend is on the team, they would never let out things like that

This is all very interesting, and honestly I hadn't heard/read anything about a drinking problem.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Daniels' deal is a bargain compared to the contracts of Muhammad Wilkerson (five years, $86 million, $36.75 million fully guaranteed) and Malik Jackson (six years, $85.5 million, $31.5 million fully guaranteed).

Wilkerson was a Pro Bowl player and second team All-Pro. He took a whopping 89% of the Jets defensive snaps, recorded 12 sacks, and led a rushing defense that was second in the league in yards, tied for first in yds. per carry, and first in rushing TDs. Daniels is not in the same class.

Whether any 3-4 DE not named J.J. Watt is worth that kind of money is a different debate, but 3-4 DEs who are top 5 in run and pass are pretty rare. We'll see if the Jets burn him out like Raji, with dead cap hit to follw.

I would agree that Daniels looks like a deal next to Malik Jackson. That is one instance. But if you look at the following list, in terms of average annual pay and guarantees, starting with Campbell and ending with Casey, the 6 guys surrounding Daniels in the list, it is hard to make the case Daniels pay is not in-line with the league.

 

[HardRightEdge]

This is all very interesting, and honestly I hadn't heard/read anything about a drinking problem.

Well, you probably didn't hear until after the fact from the player himself that Lang enjoyed frequenting bars until all hours and practiced hung over until he got married and settled down. While he may not have indulged on evenings with bed checks, one would surmise his behavior was not unknown to the organization.

This example is not intended to single out Lang. Instead, it goes to illustrate what you may not know and may never know when it comes to marginal behavior behind the scenes. This is the NFL, not a boys choir.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Wilkerson was a Pro Bowl player and second team All-Pro. He took a whopping 89% of the Jets defensive snaps, recorded 12 sacks, and led a rushing defense that was second in the league in yards, tied for first in yds. per carry, and first in rushing TDs. Daniels is not in the same class.

Whether any 3-4 DE not named J.J. Watt is worth that kind of money is a different debate, but 3-4 DEs who are top 5 in run and pass are pretty rare. We'll see if the Jets burn him out like Raji, with dead cap hit to follw.

I would agree that Daniels looks like a deal next to Malik Jackson. That is one instance. But if you look at the following list, in terms of average annual pay and guarantees, starting with Campbell and ending with Casey, the 6 guys surrounding Daniels in the list, it is hard to make the case Daniels pay is not in-line with the league.

Here is the mentioned list, inadvertently omitted previously:

http://overthecap.com/position/3-4-defensive-end/

 

[Ace]

Well, you probably didn't hear until after the fact from the player himself that Lang enjoyed frequenting bars until all hours and practiced hung over until he got married and settled down. While he may not have indulged on evenings with bed checks, one would surmise his behavior was not unknown to the organization.

This example is not intended to single out Lang. Instead, it goes to illustrate what you may not know and may never know when it comes to marginal behavior behind the scenes. This is the NFL, not a boys choir.

The difference is Lang has ascended as a player while Eddie has descended as a player. I don't expect these guys to be choir boys nor do I really care, as Favre once said "This ain't the ice capades". It think we'd be naive as fans to think there isn't something more to this considering his weight and decline in play since entering the league.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Wilkerson was a Pro Bowl player and second team All-Pro. He took a whopping 89% of the Jets defensive snaps, recorded 12 sacks, and led a rushing defense that was second in the league in yards, tied for first in yds. per carry, and first in rushing TDs. Daniels is not in the same class.

Whether any 3-4 DE not named J.J. Watt is worth that kind of money is a different debate, but 3-4 DEs who are top 5 in run and pass are pretty rare. We'll see if the Jets burn him out like Raji, with dead cap hit to follw.

I would agree that Daniels looks like a deal next to Malik Jackson. That is one instance. But if you look at the following list, in terms of average annual pay and guarantees, starting with Campbell and ending with Casey, the 6 guys surrounding Daniels in the list, it is hard to make the case Daniels pay is not in-line with the league.

Pro Football Focus graded Daniels slightly higher than Wilkerson and Jackson last season. Out of the highest paid 3-4 defensive ends only Watt and Derek Wolfe were ranked above him.

I think Daniels would have gotten significantly more money in free agency therefore the Packers got a bargsin signing him to a moderate contract in my opinion.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The difference is Lang has ascended as a player while Eddie has descended as a player. I don't expect these guys to be choir boys nor do I really care, as Favre once said "This ain't the ice capades". It think we'd be naive as fans to think there isn't something more to this considering his weight and decline in play since entering the league.

The current status of Lang and Lacy was not the point of my post. As previously noted, I doubt one late night on the town missing bed check was Lacy's first infraction. Since we agree that NFL players are not choir boys, then perhaps we can agree that not all infractions are disciplined or publicized, which was the specific point I was making.

 

[Ace]

The current status of Lang and Lacy was not the point of my post. As previously noted, I doubt one late night on the town missing bed check was Lacy's first infraction. Since we agree that NFL players are not choir boys, then perhaps we can agree that not all infractions are disciplined or publicized, which was the specific point I was making.

Fair enough, and I agree.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Pro Football Focus graded Daniels slightly higher than Wilkerson and Jackson last season. Out of the highest paid 3-4 defensive ends only Watt and Derek Wolfe were ranked above him.

I think Daniels would have gotten significantly more money in free agency therefore the Packers got a bargsin signing him to a moderate contract in my opinion.

I was going to say in that post that I expect a PFF retort, but I try to avoid getting snarky before preseason has even started.

Actually, around the time Daniels signed the contract, PFF graded his 2015 season-to-date as the second best among 3-4 DE and the 4th. best interior lineman behind only Watt, Donald and Atkins. The contract was given an "A".
Evidently, as others have observed, Daniels' play fell off somewhat after the deal. The fact that Wolfe leapfrogged him would indicate PFF agrees. So now I guess Wolfe is the steal. At this time next year it will be somebody else in retrospect. Among other things, I reiterate that PFF puts undue value on hurries.

Daniels has had 2 good seasons. He's a good player with a fair contract. Wilkerson has played at a very high level throughout. They're not in the same class.

If Daniels had been paid meaningfully more in free agency, above Campbell's level, then I'd say he was overpaid. The argument that Daniels is steal is chiefly a function of the "who else ya got" factor.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I was going to say in that post that I expect a PFF retort, but I try to avoid getting snarky before preseason has even started.

Actually, around the time Daniels signed the contract, PFF graded his 2015 season-to-date as the second best among 3-4 DE and the 4th. best interior lineman behind only Watt, Donald and Atkins. The contract was given an "A".
Evidently, as others have observed, Daniels' play fell off somewhat after the deal. The fact that Wolfe leapfrogged him would indicate PFF agrees. So now I guess Wolfe is the steal. At this time next year it will be somebody else in retrospect. Among other things, I reiterate that PFF puts undue value on hurries.

Daniels has had 2 good seasons. He's a good player with a fair contract. Wilkerson has played at a very high level throughout. They're not in the same class.

If Daniels had been paid meaningfully more in free agency, above Campbell's level, then I'd say he was overpaid. The argument that Daniels is steal is chiefly a function of the "who else ya got" factor.

Daniels performance should be held in higher regard because of a lack of talent around him at the position. Wilkerson hugely benefitted from lining up next to Damon Harrison and Leonard Williams last season while Wolfe was surronded by elite talent on the Broncos defense.

I guess we have to agree to disagree on Daniels' contract being a bargain.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Daniels performance should be held in higher regard because of a lack of talent around him at the position. Wilkerson hugely benefitted from lining up next to Damon Harrison and Leonard Williams last season while Wolfe was surronded by elite talent on the Broncos defense.

I guess we have to agree to disagree on Daniels' contract being a bargain.

Or maybe Wilkerson and Wolfe make those guys look better than they are whereas Daniels has not elevated his teammates. I would not make judgments without a deep dive into those Denver or NYJ linemen. I'll leave that for others and stick with what I've seen in Daniels.

We do disagree. As to any agreement to do so, that would have to be unilateral.

 

[Arthur Squires]

Of course you won't hear it..

I don't expect people to believe me and that's OK..

After all there is no possible way I could know. Even if a relative or a friend is on the team, they would never let out things like that

Not saying I dont believe you man. Just saying I never read that or saw it on TV.

 

[PikeBadger]

Based on $15 million in signing bonuses under current contracts, you would be correct. That's Rodgers and Matthews only. However, you can't compare contracts from just a couple of years ago to recent ones under the escalating cap.

For example, Burnett's contract is the second richest in per year total value (Chancellor is first) and the highest in guarantees among safety contracts signed in 2013 or prior that are still on the books. At the time, the contract was surprisingly rich with a Pro Bowl-level projection embedded in it..

I agree with this but will say that at that particular time (2013) there was a significant amount of chatter about the probability of the salary cap rising significantly in the future years ahead. They actually imo got out in front of the curve by getting Burnett and then Bulaga to good but team friendly deals. Neither of those contracts involved outrageous guarantee money in percentage of total contract. Thompson and Ball imo really have cracked the code and have us positioned very well with low risk in the future. Our potential dead money is quite low compared to most of the other teams I looked at.