State of our former QB, Aaron Rodgers

[Firethorn1001]

@Pokerbrat2000 noted on the prior page something about the Steelers might lose a comp pick if they sign Rodgers before the draft, so I figured we wouldn't be hearing anything until after. Surely Rodgers knows this, if that's what's going on.

I've seen this article by Charles Robinson before.

I had always thought that players that were released did not factor into any compensation draft pick compensation. Players who had a contract expire are part of the formula. There are any number of websites that indicate this so, I think he is just incorrect.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I've seen this article by Charles Robinson before.

I had always thought that players that were released did not factor into any compensation draft pick compensation. Players who had a contract expire are part of the formula. There are any number of websites that indicate this so, I think he is just incorrect.

Good point, never thought of that.

The compensatory picks formula is complicated, but I do believe that you are correct.

 

[Thirteen Below]

I've seen this article by Charles Robinson before.

I had always thought that players that were released did not factor into any compensation draft pick compensation. Players who had a contract expire are part of the formula. There are any number of websites that indicate this so, I think he is just incorrect.

Damn... you're right, according to my AI tool. It scoured the web, scanning 40 sources (from Bleacher Report and Sports Illustrated to Bolavip and the Times of India), before finally accepting the word of the New York Times. And this is what it found...

If the Pittsburgh Steelers sign Aaron Rodgers, they would not lose compensatory picks in the 2026 NFL Draft because signing Rodgers would not qualify under the compensatory free agent (CFA) formula. According to NFL rules, compensatory picks are awarded based on a team's net loss of CFAs during the prior free agency period. However, players who are released or traded, as opposed to those whose contracts expire and leave as unrestricted free agents, do not count toward this formula359.


Rodgers is currently a free agent due to his release from his previous team, meaning he does not fall under the CFA category. Therefore, signing him would not impact the Steelers' eligibility for compensatory picks in 2026.

So apparently, we are back to the most likely solution - Rodgers is being Rodgers, doing Rodgers-type stuff.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think it's been a sure thing for quite awhile now. Why would you sign him now and screw up 1 or 2 comp picks. I would hope we wouldn't if we were in that position.

So if he signs later the Jets would get comp picks? They cut him, right? I don't see how comp picks factor in here, but I also don't know much about how those picks are awarded. Any additional insight gopkrs? Thanks.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Boy, that seems like a hell of a risk for both parties, unless they have an undisclosed agreement that that's what they're doing. Which woud be about 6 different flavors of illegal, wouldn't it?

Yeah I can't imagine there is anything more than a handshake binding them, if that. I don't quite understand why the Steelers

Damn... you're right, according to my AI tool. It scoured the web, scanning 40 sources (from Bleacher Report and Sports Illustrated to Bolavip and the Times of India), before finally accepting the word of the New York Times. And this is what it found...



So apparently, we are back to the most likely solution - Rodgers is being Rodgers, doing Rodgers-type stuff.

Sure sounds like it. Comp picks in this case did not make sense to me for the reasons you mention. So Rodgers is being Rodgers. Or they may be having a hard time reaching agreement on comp. It's hard to see the Steelers, or any team, paying him much for one season of play.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So if he signs later the Jets would get comp picks? They cut him, right? I don't see how comp picks factor in here, but I also don't know much about how those picks are awarded. Any additional insight gopkrs? Thanks.

No, the Jets cut him, so he wouldn't factor into their 2026 Comp picks. In its most general sense, players only become Compensatory Free Agents if they are free to leave their old team against that team’s will.

 

[OldSchool101]

No, the Jets cut him, so he wouldn't factor into their 2026 Comp picks. In its most general sense, players only become Compensatory Free Agents if they are free to leave their old team against that team’s will.

That makes sense.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think Rodgers is a Steeler, that’s just my opinion. There’s several reasons but the most obvious hint was him choosing DK to workout with. That wasn’t by chance as Aaron thinks through things very intently.

I’m not sure anyone knows the $ offer though. If it’s $25mil yearly I doubt Rodgers takes that and probably shouldn’t. IMO his floor should be closer to $35mil. Probably wouldn’t split hairs at $33mil-34 etc.
Rodgers ranked in the Top 16 in nearly every statistical passing category in 2024. I’d put him as the #12-14 best QB last year and potential to crack top #10 QB in the ideal system. In a world where Carr and Wilson make more he’s completely justified at $35mil.

He’s probably open to the Saints in that $40m neighborhood, but his best opportunity past The Vikings is still Pittsburg. Steelers are a 11+ Win team with Aaron under Center and that’s plenty good for a playoff birth. Pitt would be dumb to walk Aaron over $5m

 

[Heyjoe4]

No, the Jets cut him, so he wouldn't factor into their 2026 Comp picks. In its most general sense, players only become Compensatory Free Agents if they are free to leave their old team against that team’s will.

Thanks, that's what I thought.

Not sure if the delay in signing Rodgers by Pitt is due to Rodgers wanting to create attention. I don't get it but wouldn't put it past him.

Or maybe he really is wrestling with the idea of retiring. IMO that's his best course of action. But it's understandably hard for these guys to call it quits.

 

[gopkrs]

So if he signs later the Jets would get comp picks? They cut him, right? I don't see how comp picks factor in here, but I also don't know much about how those picks are awarded. Any additional insight gopkrs? Thanks.

I'm thinking comp picks factor in for the steelers. If a team signs someone; that affects any comp picks they might get for losing a player.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm thinking comp picks factor in for the steelers. If a team signs someone; that affects any comp picks they might get for losing a player.

I think @Firethorn1001 cleared this up (below). Since Rodgers wasn't a compensatory "gain" for the Jets, since they cut him, he wouldn't be a compensatory "loss" for the team that signs him. Even if that signing happens before the cutoff date of 4/28/25.

I've seen this article by Charles Robinson before.

I had always thought that players that were released did not factor into any compensation draft pick compensation. Players who had a contract expire are part of the formula. There are any number of websites that indicate this so, I think he is just incorrect.

I did notice a few articles this morning about the Saints possibly having interest in Rodgers now. Sounds like Carr's shoulder injury is a wildcard and could possibly keep him out longer than originally expected.

 

[gopkrs]

I think @Firethorn1001 cleared this up (below). Since Rodgers wasn't a compensatory "gain" for the Jets, since they cut him, he wouldn't be a compensatory "loss" for the team that signs him. Even if that signing happens before the cutoff date of 4/28/25.



I did notice a few articles this morning about the Saints possibly having interest in Rodgers now. Sounds like Carr's shoulder injury is a wildcard and could possibly keep him out longer than originally expected.

Clear as mud

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm thinking comp picks factor in for the steelers. If a team signs someone; that affects any comp picks they might get for losing a player.

Didn't know this. Thanks. So then it makes sense that the Steelers and Rodgers will wait until after the draft to ink a deal, I think.