Yeah i have a feeling teams will be throwing 7mil a year and up offers. If i remember correctly Jonathan Stewart signed a new deal worth close to 8mil yearly and Lacy is a better back than Stewart, when he's not 250+pounds anyway. I have this fear of Lacy signing with the Lions next season because they throw fat numbers his way. It's more of a nightmare really.
Here's the rundown on current RB contracts:
http://overthecap.com/position/running-back/
A career year from Lacy puts him above several guys at the $6+ mil level who just got new deals.
Stewart's would be the contract an agent would benchmark against. The guy has 8 seasons under his belt, his rushing is hardly elite and the career stats indicate he's not much of a receiver. As you suggest, this contract is hard to understand. Maybe Newton was crying about keeping the band together. Why they signed him is neither here nor there. The fact it establishes a benchmark is what matters.
You can go either way with Doug Martin. Terrific rookie year and a 4th. year All Pro year, but with 2 injury plagued seasons in between. I think I'd be reluctant to give this kind of money to a guy who hasn't put 2 healthy years back to back, but again that's neither here nor there. It's a benchmark against a durability risk.
Ivory had his best season last year, his 6th. in the league, which did not match up to Lacy's 2014 season. There is the mileage and an injury history there, but they paid him anyway.
Murray's 450 touches in 2014 were a 5 alarm warning. He was also running behind the best run blocking line in many a moon, which helped make for the gaudy stats. Philly paid the price. While I would expect some bounce back after a year of a much lighter load, the Titans are taking a big risk. Dallas might have permanently burned him out. But the Titans paid him anyway in taking on the risk, and that's all that matters in establishing the possible burnout benchmark.
Lamar Miller...his best year in 2014 approximates Lacy's 2014, but would not match up to a Lacy career year. Miller saw some fall off in 2015. The Texans paid him, and that's what matters.
And keep in mind...the salary cap will go up again. And renewed interest in bolstering run games could continue on pace creating more price competition.
Lacy's kind of a d*mned if he does and d*mned if he doesn't situation. If he returns to form, I agree with the Captain that you would not want to trust him at these $ amounts, especially with all of the other FAs in the 2017 group. Young guys with conditioning issues have a bad habit of repeat offenses. Of course if he plays like last year after getting in better shape perhaps making business decisions, you would not want to pay him in that case either.
This is why they signed Starks for 2 years. The first year is insurance against Lacy. The second is insurance against the unproven rookie they may have to draft next year in an upper round.
