Rebuild a new LaFleur offense or get what Pettine needs on defense?

[brandon2348]

There's no guarantee anybody you draft is going to be good.

True, but they have been far better drafting offense then defense all things considered.

 

[gbgary]

the Packers O, as a whole, hasn't improved since 2014. the defense has but still needs key spots addressed. address those in free agency and draft O. free agency will take cojones which i think the Packers lack. maybe they'll surprise.

 

[PackAttack12]

the Packers O, as a whole, hasn't improved since 2014. the defense has but still needs key spots addressed. address those in free agency and draft O. free agency will take cojones which i think the Packers lack. maybe they'll surprise.

It's a new day with Gutekunst.

 

[Mondio]

We can thank Ted Thompson for that.

well 3 of your 5 were thanks to Ted Thompson LOL You're too ****ing much LOL

 

[OldSchool101]

In short, I put a lot of value on the position as well as the player. Roughly, I'd rank the positions:

1. QB
2. Edge Rusher
2b. Interior rusher
2c. CB
3. WR
4. O-Line/Safety
5. TE/ILB
6. RB
12. FB

I’m not sure if you’re aware, but in 2018 the top 3 NFL players that led the league in raw production through all purpose yards are Runningbacks (aside from QBs)
Also the leagues TD leader is a RB

Why on earth would you have that ranked last?

 

[mradtke66]

I’m not sure if you’re aware, but in 2018 the top 3 NFL players that led the league in raw production through all purpose yards are Runningbacks (aside from QBs)
Also the leagues TD leader is a RB

Why on earth would you have that ranked last?

A few reasons.

The first is relative scarcity or lack there of. Running back are common and among the easiest to replace.

They also have a have the shortest shelf life. Spending a high pick on a player who is potentially used up after 5 years isn't the best use of high picks.

Most damning, in my point of view, is how little having a successful running back is to over-all wins. Nothing more perfectly illustrates that than the Peterson Vikings. Zero playoff victories without Favre.

In general, rushing teams aren't the big dogs anymore. It'a about throwing the ball and scoring points.

And goofily, more runs aren't required to setup play action passes: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

 

[brandon2348]

A few reasons.

The first is relative scarcity or lack there of. Running back are common and among the easiest to replace.

They also have a have the shortest shelf life. Spending a high pick on a player who is potentially used up after 5 years isn't the best use of high picks.

Most damning, in my point of view, is how little having a successful running back is to over-all wins. Nothing more perfectly illustrates that than the Peterson Vikings. Zero playoff victories without Favre.

In general, rushing teams aren't the big dogs anymore. It'a about throwing the ball and scoring points.

And goofily, more runs aren't required to setup play action passes: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

I agree with this. Teams are doing everything to stop the pass and adjusting to the run from there.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

A few reasons.

Most damning, in my point of view, is how little having a successful running back is to over-all wins. Nothing more perfectly illustrates that than the Peterson Vikings. Zero playoff victories without Favre.

In general, rushing teams aren't the big dogs anymore. It'a about throwing the ball and scoring points.

Seattle and Dallas (both playoff teams) would disagree with your last sentence. Also, Dallas had a playoff win this year with Zeke and were a possession away from tying the game against the Rams..

Tampa Bay had an elite passing offense and a crappy ground game, where did that get them.

And before you say it, yes the Giants had a great RB (rookie) and a mediocre/bad QB. They're the antithesis to my point.

Like most things in football, the key is balance and not showing your hand on offense. Be great at the pass, be great at the run and great things will happen.

 

[mradtke66]

Be great at the pass, be great at the run and great things will happen.

But that's the real rub.

Life is compromise. You can have anything you want, but you can have everything you want. Having cake vs. eating it. Etc, etc.

In general, I value drafting defensive players over offensive, offensive passing players over offensive running players.

For all of the reasons I mentioned, running backs are less valuable than passing players, which is where this started. The game currently favors the pass, running backs tend not to produce wins, running backs are easily replaced, running backs have (historically) the shortest careers. Ergo, running backs are comparatively poor draft picks compared to say, a defensive end. Which is where we got off into this tangent.

Of course that's in a vacuum. Once we're comparing a specific running back vs. any other specific player, how the better player, value, choice, changed.

Also, to counter your Dallas vs. Tampa argument:

3 of the championship teams were top 10 in passing yard: NO was 12th.

All 4 are top in yards per attempt.

3 of 4 are top 10 in passing TDs. NE is 11th. And Seattle was 5th.

To be fair, 3 of the 4 championship teams were also top 10 in rushing yards. They were just good teams.

 

[brandon2348]

Seattle and Dallas (both playoff teams) would disagree with your last sentence. Also, Dallas had a playoff win this year with Zeke and were a possession away from tying the game against the Rams..

Tampa Bay had an elite passing offense and a crappy ground game, where did that get them.

And before you say it, yes the Giants had a great RB (rookie) and a mediocre/bad QB. They're the antithesis to my point.

Like most things in football, the key is balance and not showing your hand on offense. Be great at the pass, be great at the run and great things will happen.

The Seahawks arent going anywhere but 1 and done with Schottenheimer and Dallas won't get much farther with Garrett.

 

[elcid]

They have drafted both Josh Jones and Burks to play coverage from the LB spot. The picks have already been made and they need to develop those guys. This is exactly what I mean about the "INSANITY" to just keep drafting players with top picks over and over to do the same thing.

I don't want a rookie safety back there and would rather take a chance on an older vet with where this team is at. Edge might be tougher in FA to get but we simply don't know what will be available yet.

So if Jones/Burks will play cover LB, this would basically leave the SS position vacant as well (or at least depleted). Furthermore I can see the Packers signing a quality safety (Mathieu, Collins or Amos in order of my preference) but I dont see them spend half of their remaining cap space on an impact edge rusher with so many other positions that would need reinforcing through FA.

Here is another scenario for you. If the Packers were to use FA to drastically reinforce their offense and sign, say, both Humphries and Saffold, would you still want us to draft offense only/heavy during the first two days of the draft? Because personally I think such a scenario is more likely than one in which the Packers sign both a quality edge rusher and free safety

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Of course, but my post was with respect to the roster rn. Furthermore I deem it highy unlikely that we will find a quality starting edge rusher, free safety ánd cover linebacker in FA. Therefore spending at least 1 premium pick on the defense will be desirable imo

I don't consider coverage linebacker to be a top priority this offseason. It might be expensive but there's a possibility Gutekunst will be able to upgrade edge rusher and free safety in free agency.

They have drafted both Josh Jones and Burks to play coverage from the LB spot. The picks have already been made and they need to develop those guys. This is exactly what I mean about the "INSANITY" to just keep drafting players with top picks over and over to do the same thing.

It would be insane to ignore positions in need of an upgrade based on having spent early rounders on it in the past. If the players aren't good enough the team needs to upgrade the position.

Tampa Bay had an elite passing offense and a crappy ground game, where did that get them.

The Buccaneers didn't have an elite passing offense as they threw the most interceptions in the league.

 

[brandon2348]

It would be insane to ignore positions in need of an upgrade based on having spent early rounders on it in the past. If the players aren't good enough the team needs to upgrade

When you have a 2nd round and 3rd round pick coming off there 2nd and roookie season respectively its way to early to give up on them and start looking for there replacements.

 

[brandon2348]

So if Jones/Burks will play cover LB, this would basically leave the SS position vacant as well (or at least depleted). Furthermore I can see the Packers signing a quality safety (Mathieu, Collins or Amos in order of my preference) but I dont see them spend half of their remaining cap space on an impact edge rusher with so many other positions that would need reinforcing through FA.

Here is another scenario for you. If the Packers were to use FA to drastically reinforce their offense and sign, say, both Humphries and Saffold, would you still want us to draft offense only/heavy during the first two days of the draft? Because personally I think such a scenario is more likely than one in which the Packers sign both a quality edge rusher and free safety

Whatever the Packers do in free agency I expect to shift or tilt how they draft.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

When you have a 2nd round and 3rd round pick coming off there 2nd and roookie season respectively its way to early to give up on them and start looking for there replacements.

Agreed, but if the Packers figure out that either of them isn't good enough to perform at an adequate level they will have to replace them. Even if that means drafting the same position again.

 

[brandon2348]

Agreed, but if the Packers figure out that either of them isn't good enough to perform at an adequate level they will have to replace them. Even if that means drafting the same position again.

My frustration lies with this massive urgency to rinse, repeat and replace but then sit idle in areas were just not that good at to begin with.

 

[Mondio]

which team is better, Rodgers, decent oline Adams and Gmo type players with Jaire Alexander, Jackson type players starting to round out the defensive backfield. Or

Rodgers, Adams, insert whatever high draft choices at WR and Ladarius Gunter type players on the back end? So we get some highlights that make everyone excited, we're still not winning anything. First team with any defense would beat us, as we've seen in the past with our own team and many others across the league over the years.

and there is hardly anybody saying we need offense or we need defense. Most are saying you don't forgo a highly valued position when someone you think is going to be a very good player, because you already picked someone in previous years that has amounted to so so at best. It's frustrating, but it's kind of how football works. and you never stop evaluating current, and potential future players and positions. Development, injury, etc all will always keep it changing. Injuries and missed draft picks or being unable to keep a FA or signing unproductive ones will hurt. We know all of that, but none of it means you ignore your current needs.

 

[PackAttack12]

and there is hardly anybody saying we need offense or we need defense.

There's also no one suggesting upgrading the offense to the point where you have Gunter type players in the secondary....

 

[Deleted member 6794]

There's also no one suggesting upgrading the offense to the point where you have Gunter type players in the secondary....

It would be an upgrade for our offense if we somehow are able to get opponents to have Gunter type players lined up in the secondary though

 

[Mondio]

There's also no one suggesting upgrading the offense to the point where you have Gunter type players in the secondary....

True, but what happens when you trade a guy away, the other has a torn Achilles, another leaves in FA and one decides he’s done playing for you and you decide you aren’t going to replace them because you already used draft picks one them?

 

[GreenNGold_81]

The Buccaneers didn't have an elite passing offense as they threw the most interceptions in the league.

They led the league in yards and were top 3 in TD's despite little help from their run game. Winston had several multi-interception games, true, but overall their passing offense was certainly top 5.

 

[PackAttack12]

True, but what happens when you trade a guy away, the other has a torn Achilles, another leaves in FA and one decides he’s done playing for you and you decide you aren’t going to replace them because you already used draft picks one them?

"you can't have pro bowlers 6 deep at every position".

 

[Mondio]

I know that, I’ve probably said it 100 times, but that has nothing to do with this. Getting 2 quality starters at a very highly valued position isn’t saying we need 6 probowlers before we can move on in the draft.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

They led the league in yards and were top 3 in TD's despite little help from their run game. Winston had several multi-interception games, true, but overall their passing offense was certainly top 5.

Well, the Buccanners finished 15th in combined passer rating last season, therefore them being an average passing offense seems to be more accurate.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Well, the Buccanners finished 15th in combined passer rating last season, therefore them being an average passing offense seems to be more accurate.

And they had the second highest yards per completion in the whole league. Second to KC. Again, they're a top 5 passing offense. Not that it means much, but Monken wouldn't have been a hot coaching candidate with an average offense. Evans, Humphries, Godwin, Jackson was probably the top WR corps in the entire NFL. Howard and Brate probably a top 5 TE duo (when healthy). When Fitzmagic was throwing the ball he had a 100.4 QB rating (9th amongst mentionable starting QB's).

Top 5.