"Realistic" WR Discussions...

[tynimiller]

Okay, so with so much swirling on the forums about adding a true blue #2 let's do the most logical thing and look to the teams (no wins or 1 win) that could be looking to liquidate or move assets to build for future picks. As a big EQ fan (very smart WR) I am so bummed the year he has to suffer an injury is actually the first true big year chance for a WR to separate in that room here in Green Bay...ugh...anyways back on topic:

Dolphins
Jakeem Grant - Shifty shorter slot type receiver they spent a 6th rounder on back in 2016...I'd not offer more than a 7th 'IF' gute sees him as an asset possibly...however I would prefer an outside guy, but Jakeem could even be had for a conditional which may turn into nothing.

Preston Williams - The tall 6-5 receiver from Colorado St. I wanted GB to grab when he went undrafted anyways. He presently is the Dolphins leading receiver (tied with Davante Parker). Undrafted WR...young...but do we know enough to truly be willing to add just another young WR with promise.

*Allen Hurns - Young-ish at 27 and is decent height at 6-3. He is on a one year deal...with the Dolphins young corp of WRs I don't think he will re-sign. Has had a 1,000 yard year with a terrible QB in Jacksonville...experience and motivated to resurrect his career...this IF we go for a WR in Miami makes the most sense from a them and us stance. They're set to lose him, could get something, we give up little and possibly gain a sidekick to Adams maybe not statistically but experience wise.

Bengals
AJ Green - Severe health issues for like 3 straight years...way too expensive...let's move along.

Honestly, I don't see any of the others being options we'd either want or that the Bengals would send.

Jets
*Demaryius Thomas - Once a STUD, no longer there obviously. To be fair though, we aren't looking for one, we need a complimentary receiver with experience. Jets only gave up a 6th for him, he is presently flirting with dropping to 4th on a roster looking towards future and not present. Could possibly be a fit...

Robby Anderson - My clear favorite of their group, but would take far too much equity and wouldn't be worth it IMO. He is part of the Jets future and I don't see him being relinquished.

Crowder - An option, but again is young enough and I believe part of Jets future too much to be swayed with a low round pick.

Redskins
Paul Richardson Jr - Looking over the Skins he is the only one I feel has shown enough promise (not a lot of production) He is set to get 7.5Million however in 21' and 22' if I interpreted his contract right...BUT is presently quite affordable. Six foot and 7 years of experience...I sense however it would take at least a mid to upper 3rd of round picks to get him. Is he worth a 4th? A 3rd? Lot could change with a win in Dallas and this team solidifying itself as a contender with a few holes...

Cardinals
Gonna pass on them, mixture of no desire for any (maybe Kirk) and/or believe they won't let any go. Actually real quick thoughts on Kirk....still on rookie contract and would take a 4th or stronger....hmm...

Falcons
Sanu - Sanu is the only one I feel could possibly happen. Between their stud TE Hooper and Jones and Ridley I could see IF they lose again a willingness to possibly hear a call on Sanu. His contact is not in last year but nearly...and is not a bad contract to inherit with little arguably no dead cap hit if we would split after the year (I am NOT close to good at understanding cap stuff so correct if wrong).

In the end my personal top 3 possible experienced WRs I feel are worth a phone call at least is Hurns, Thomas, Sanu...

Personally I don't envision this happening or any true blue WR with experience coming our way....but for discussion sakes throwing thoughts out.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I would only be interested in trading for a receiver capable of helping the Packers in future years as well. Unfortunately even teams with losing records don't give up players like that.

As a side note, teams trading for a player don't inherit the dead money portion of a contract aside of future guarantees.

 

[gbgary]

I would only be interested in trading for a receiver capable of helping the Packers in future years as well. Unfortunately even teams with losing records don't give up players like that.

i agree on not going for a one year rental type wr. this team needs way more than that. on your second point it's become a lot more possible to trade for good wr's. look at amari cooper, obj, and antonio brown trades. all had years left. everyone has a price.

 

[tynimiller]

i agree on not going for a one year rental type wr. this team needs way more than that. on your second point it's become a lot more possible to trade for good wr's. look at amari cooper, obj, and antonio brown trades. all had years left. everyone has a price.

To be honest that is one reason I like the idea of Sanu...not a rental one year deal if pulled off.

 

[HardRightEdge]

To be honest that is one reason I like the idea of Sanu...not a rental one year deal if pulled off.

I've always liked Sanu's game. He's also been durable throughout his career and has remained productive this season. He fits the Packer's current "big slot" mode. His cost for 2019 as of this moment is 13/17 x $6 mil = $4.6 mil. At the trading deadline the cost drops to $3.2 mil. He's under contract for 2020 with a cap and cash cost of $6 mil if acquired in trade with no dead cap liability. So, he'd be a rent-a-player with an option to "buy" for another year if he worked out.

But how realistic are any of these trade possibilities? This seems to be talked about like we're approaching the MLB trading deadline shuffle. The fact of the matter is in-season trades in the NFL are not very common. The notable ones can be counted on one or two hands in any given season. The list from last year goes something like this:

Clinton-Dix / 4th round pick
Montgomery / 7th. round pick
Dante Fowler / 3rd. and 5th. round picks
Golden Tate / 3rd. round pick
Demaryius Thomas and 7th. round pick / 4th. and 7th. round picks
Amari Cooper / 1st. round pick
Damon Harrison / 5th. round pick
Eli Apple / 4th. and 7th. round picks
Carlos Hyde / 5th. round pick

Alternatively, the Packers might pick up Andre Rison off waivers and not have to give up a pick.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't believe it's more realistic we do a move, than it is we don't.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't believe it's more realistic we do a move, than it is we don't.

So. Are you trying to say you don’t think we do, or you do think we don’t?

 

[tynimiller]

So. Are you trying to say you don’t think we do, or you do think we don’t?

LoL...betting man in me would bet we do nothing. If we do I would love Sanu, I believe he is the most experienced, capable with an option year from a team I just don't see signing him long term giving their situation.

 

[XPack]

Can we afford Stefon Diggs?

Lots of rumblings in Minny.

 

[PackerDNA]

Can we afford Stefon Diggs?

Lots of rumblings in Minny.

I don't know about the afford part, but I don't see any way that they' trade him to us.

 

[Poppa San]

Can we afford Stefon Diggs?

Lots of rumblings in Minny.

From OTC
2019 26 $8,900,000
2020 27 $10,900,000
2021 28 $11,400,000
2022 29 $11,400,000
2023 30 $11,400,000
plus $600K per years in game and workout bonuses

 

[greengold]

Diggs is not worth that kinda jack... sorry. Thx Pops

I've got a whacky realistic WR signing that I can seriously see happening... Chad Ocho Cinco. Granted, this is a bit out of the box-ish, but I do think adding him as a #2 WR somewhere down the line is not out of the realm of possibility, unless I'm wrong about another team having a lien on his rights or something.

Seems he's gone out of his way to show his support for what the Packers are doing, and I would not doubt his ability to be effective again if given the opportunity.

I'm curious what you guys might think about this one....? Just tossin' it out for kicks. It would cost us virtually nothing, if I'm not mistaken.

Do you think that dude would want a ring? I sure do.

 

[AmishMafia]

What do you all attribute our passing woes to?

The way I see it:

Rodgers play: 20%
Familiarity: 40%
Coaching: 20%
Wide receivers : 20%


Rodgers hasn't played as well as he can. His passes don't have the same zip, accuracy has declined, and he seems reluctant to make some throws.

Familiarity: it takes some time to build the chemistry. To know what the Route tree is and where everyone is and nuances of each WR.

Coaching: MLF is developing too. He needs more experience calling plays and working with players.

Receivers: very talented group IMO, just need more experience to develop.

I think signing a great WR would help, but not as much as many here is think. There are other issues as well

 

[swhitset]

I don't know about the afford part, but I don't see any way that they' trade him to us.

The Vikings do have a history of stupid trades...lol Herschel Walker....

Maybe we could get them to take Jimmy Graham... and give us Diggs, Thielen, and their 2020 first round draft pick.... We could throw in one of the staff from the Packer Pro shop to sweeten the deal.

 

[Dantés]

The Dolphin receiver they should target, Albert Wilson, isn't on the list. He's a YAC specialist and reportedly he's healthy and ready to play again. Grant would be an unlikely trade candidate seeing as how they just signed up to an extension. Wilson was signed by the previous regime and has only one year left in his deal.

 

[HardRightEdge]

From OTC
2019 26 $8,900,000
2020 27 $10,900,000
2021 28 $11,400,000
2022 29 $11,400,000
2023 30 $11,400,000
plus $600K per years in game and workout bonuses

You did not account for the fact that a trade this moment would cost 13/17 of that $8.9 mil. MIN already paid him 4 game checks. Diggs would also be owned 12/16 of his $500,000 per game roster bonuses.

You did not include $600,000 per year starting in 2020 for workout and per game roster bonuses.

That said, Diggs is not going anywhere unless MIN is elimitated from the playoffs by week 8, which is not going to happen.

 

[OldSchool101]

What do you all attribute our passing woes to?
The way I see it:

Rodgers play: 20%
Familiarity: 40%
Coaching: 20%
Wide receivers : 20%

I like the breakdown. Using this template only Amish, I’d break ‘Er down like..

Rodgers play: 10%
Familiarity: 30%
Coaching: 20%
Wide Receivers: 40%

QB: Last game, Rodgers just put up 470 all purpose yards against a decent Defense (excluding the RB rushing). All that with several missed opportunities which I didn’t see as direct fault of his. If anything, he had a couple of very catchable balls dropped or deflected. A sliver of the Offensive woes are always the QBs responsibility. He’s the Field General.
Familiarity: It takes time. Lots of changes this offseason
Coaching: same as above.
Wide Receiver: The biggest immediate weakness I see is not having a current dynamic Receiver paired with Davante. That goes for both Perimeter or Slot. Notice I said “current”. That does not mean that EQ or Kumerow, MVS, etc.. won’t eventually have a shot at filling that role. But a “current” snapshot reveals that flaw in our system.

Behind Adams You’ve got a very inexperienced group at WR. On top of that, you’re asking them to re-learn an entire playbook. The one factor that would have an immediate impact would be a dynamic Receiver who gets in sync with #12 and makes the #2 CB pay. I think that would run a shockwave through the Offense. All the receivers would be better by default. The RBs n TEs would deal with one less defender in the box

 

[HardRightEdge]

What do you all attribute our passing woes to?

The way I see it:

Rodgers play: 20%
Familiarity: 40%
Coaching: 20%
Wide receivers : 20%


Rodgers hasn't played as well as he can. His passes don't have the same zip, accuracy has declined, and he seems reluctant to make some throws.

Familiarity: it takes some time to build the chemistry. To know what the Route tree is and where everyone is and nuances of each WR.

Coaching: MLF is developing too. He needs more experience calling plays and working with players.

Receivers: very talented group IMO, just need more experience to develop.

I think signing a great WR would help, but not as much as many here is think. There are other issues as well

You should allocate something to an ineffective running game. Unfavorable down and distance when you don't get a decent chunk on first or second down. That's a start. Then, as LaFluer noted, the Eagles played a lot of cover 2 which you could partially attribute to not seeing the need to move a guy up in the box to stop the run. Playing cover 2 while still being able to stop the run causes play action to lose it's effectiveness.

 

[PackerDNA]

Chris Carter made some good points. I'll condense it down to the main one. Carter says that when Rogers came out he was used to guys like Driver, Jennings and Jordy who were great at running routes and getting out of their breaks. He pointed to guys like MVS and Allison who are 6 foot 4 and 6 foot 3. He says receivers over 6 ft 1 can't get out of their brakes as quickly or sharply. Food for thought.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

i agree on not going for a one year rental type wr. this team needs way more than that. on your second point it's become a lot more possible to trade for good wr's. look at amari cooper, obj, and antonio brown trades. all had years left. everyone has a price.

Brown didn't have anything left after all.

I've got a whacky realistic WR signing that I can seriously see happening... Chad Ocho Cinco. Granted, this is a bit out of the box-ish, but I do think adding him as a #2 WR somewhere down the line is not out of the realm of possibility, unless I'm wrong about another team having a lien on his rights or something.

Seems he's gone out of his way to show his support for what the Packers are doing, and I would not doubt his ability to be effective again if given the opportunity.

I'm curious what you guys might think about this one....? Just tossin' it out for kicks. It would cost us virtually nothing, if I'm not mistaken.

Do you think that dude would want a ring? I sure do.

Ochocinco will turn 42 years old in January. No way the Packers should think about signing him.

Rodgers hasn't played as well as he can. His passes don't have the same zip, accuracy has declined, and he seems reluctant to make some throws.

Rodgers played significantly better against the Eagles.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Chris Carter made some good points. I'll condense it down to the main one. Carter says that when Rogers came out he was used to guys like Driver, Jennings and Jordy who were great at running routes and getting out of their breaks. He pointed to guys like MVS and Allison who are 6 foot 4 and 6 foot 3. He says receivers over 6 ft 1 can't get out of their brakes as quickly or sharply. Food for thought.

Nelson is 6'3". Carter's food for thought is overbaked.

 

[Dantés]

If they want a player who is younger with more control and/or the potential for more control, then the guys that interest me and still seem like realistic targets are:

• Mohamed Sanu, Atlanta, 30, signed thru 2020
• Albert Wilson, Miami, 27, thru 2020
• Dede Westbrook, Jaguars, 25, thru 2020 (rookie deal)

Sanu would make a lot of sense.

1. He is aging without being terribly old, so he still has value but would not be part of a rebuild plan in ATL.
2. He only has one year left on his deal, and the Falcons have bigger investments in Ridley and Jones.
3. He's a slot receiver, which is the hole the Packers need to fill.
4. He's a big slot, appealing to Gutekunst's taste for bigger receivers.
5. He's playing really well, on pace for about 96/960 (no TD yet, but has been good for 4-5/season in ATL).
6. His salary is reasonable. Half his hit in 2019 would be about 3.8M, and they could keep him through 2020 for ~8M.
7. Petals is already familiar with him from their time together in Atlanta in 2016.

Man... the more I look at him, the more I like the idea. Put me down for one Sanu, please.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If they want a player who is younger with more control and/or the potential for more control, then the guys that interest me and still seem like realistic targets are:

• Mohamed Sanu, Atlanta, 30, signed thru 2020
• Albert Wilson, Miami, 27, thru 2020
• Dede Westbrook, Jaguars, 25, thru 2020 (rookie deal)

Sanu would make a lot of sense.

1. He is aging without being terribly old, so he still has value but would not be part of a rebuild plan in ATL.
2. He only has one year left on his deal, and the Falcons have bigger investments in Ridley and Jones.
3. He's a slot receiver, which is the hole the Packers need to fill.
4. He's a big slot, appealing to Gutekunst's taste for bigger receivers.
5. He's playing really well, on pace for about 96/960 (no TD yet, but has been good for 4-5/season in ATL).
6. His salary is reasonable. Half his hit in 2019 would be about 3.8M, and they could keep him through 2020 for ~8M.
7. Petals is already familiar with him from their time together in Atlanta in 2016.

Man... the more I look at him, the more I like the idea. Put me down for one Sanu, please.

Also, he's a polished route runner which should appeal to the QB.

His 2020 cost in a trade is $6.5 mil, the amount of his salary only. The $1.4 mil in prorated signing bonus in his $7.9 mil 2020 cap number would go to Atlanta's dead cap. When a team trades a player they are on the cap hook for all future singing bonus prorations. They wrote the check, they absorb the cap.

I may have misspoken earlier about 2019. Atlanta would be on the hook for his all of his 2019 singing bonus as well in a trade. So, with a trade at the deadline, his 2019 cost to the Packers would be for 9 weeks of his salary = 9/17 x $6 mil = $3.2 mil.

So, he'd be about $2 mil cheaper over two years than your numbers suggest, better than a sharp stick in the eye.

And if for some reason he does not work out in 2019 he could be released with no dead cap.

 

[HardRightEdge]

His passes don't have the same zip, accuracy has declined, and he seems reluctant to make some throws.

I would qualify that by saying "sometimes" on the zip and accuracy. On some throws he looks just as he always has. Without charting every throw it would be hard to say which kinds of throws are which. I suspect, and it is only a suspicion, that the plate in his shoulder, or maybe that cracked knee, affects certain throwing positions.

And yet, he threw for 400 yards with no running game and a bunch of receivers everybody seems to want to replace.

Peyton Manning led a Super Bowl winning team with a dead arm.

 

[AmishMafia]

I would qualify that by saying "sometimes" on the zip and accuracy. On some throws he looks just as he always has. Without charting every throw it would be hard to say which kinds of throws are which. I suspect, and it is only a suspicion, that the plate in his shoulder, or maybe that cracked knee, affects certain throwing positions.

that is an interesting thought. I notice it when I watch younger QBs. In Wilson vrs Goff it was a bit of a trip down memory lane as I saw them making passes AR used to make.

And yet, he threw for 400 yards with no running game and a bunch of receivers everybody seems to want to replace.

Once a player is on a pedestal, especially a QB, fans will stick with him long after they should.

Peyton Manning led a Super Bowl winning team with a dead arm.

You can win despite mediocre QB play, I will give you that. But it is easier with a great QB.

My thinking is that as ARs arm softens, he can't sling em as well as he once did. He still abhors throwing picks. Therefore he doesn't throw it in tighter coverage as he once did. He passes up probable receptions because he can no longer trust his arm.