Ranking the NFL QBs

[ivo610]

That's a high bar ivo. Who's in that discussion now? Just the guys with 4+ rings?

Rodgers needs more championships for sure - and MVP awards - but there isn't anyone who's tracking with Rodgers' production at this point in his career. He'd be in my discussion with 3 rings and 6 more years of continued performance like he's had for sure.

I think football is too much of a team sport to base an analysis of the best ever at any position first and foremost on rings - even QB. I'm not saying they're worthless by any stretch (Manning) but I'm looking at all of what they individually do on the field, including their intangible contribution to winning games (Starr/Montana) first.

Bart Starr, Otto graham, joe Montana, and Brady all have real solid arguments to the crown.

You gotta excel in the post season, otherwise you land in that 2nd tier of guys that didn't.

 

[longtimefan]

Everyone will have their own way of ranking a q/b some include championships some only regular season...

To me this is the ultimate team sport...With defense having just as much impact on the game as the q/b , because if your defense sucks, your not going anywhere..

Aka- defense wins championships.

Dilfer--Johnson won "a"

I would put Rodgers #1 and Brady #2, but I see why it isnt that way

I am little surprised Wilson is at 7

 

[ivo610]

Everyone will have their own way of ranking a q/b some include championships some only regular season...

To me this is the ultimate team sport...With defense having just as much impact on the game as the q/b , because if your defense sucks, your not going anywhere..

Aka- defense wins championships.

Dilfer--Johnson won "a"

I would put Rodgers #1 and Brady #2, but I see why it isnt that way

I am little surprised Wilson is at 7

to me QB is the only position where I can look at the stats and have a pretty good idea on who won the game.

The dilfers are a rare occurrence and never seem to win multiple

 

[vince]

Bart Starr, Otto graham, joe Montana, and Brady all have real solid arguments to the crown.

You gotta excel in the post season, otherwise you land in that 2nd tier of guys that didn't.

That's a really good list I'd say, thanks ivo. I'm sure you've debated this question and covered all the ground before (in addition to it being off-topic here) so I'm not going to challenge you on it - until Rodgers gets another ring or two and another MVP...

 

[HardRightEdge]

...it’s no coincidence that over the past 10 regular seasons, Bill Belichick’s defenses have finished in the top 10 scoring Ds eight times.

What do the Packers have to do to get one of those? I know a good first step.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Agree with the list completely. Rodgers is 6-5 in the playoffs with 2 NFCCG's and 1 SB appearance and 1 win. Brady is 21-8 in the playoffs with 7 AFCCG appearances and 6 SB appearances and 4 SB wins. It is not even a question to anyone except in the eyes of Packer fans.

As much as I love Aaron, his playoff success is rather pedestrian when compared to the "great" QB's and downright pathetic (2-5) when you take away the one SB win.

Aaron has yet to even beat Favre for playoff success let alone the likes of Brady, Montana, Bradshaw, Aikman, Starr, Staubach, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Eli Manning....

Rodgers is great but he has miles to go to even remotely be considered as the the best.

First of all it doesn't make any sense to eliminate Rodgers Super Bowl win from the discussion.

Winning the Super Bowl requires the entire team playing at a high level, not only the QB. Rodgers only once had an elite defense in 2010 and the Packers won the Super Bowl. The only other time the defense finished in the top 10 in points allowed in 2009 the offense put up 45 points in the playoff game at Arizona yet it wasn't enough to win.

Rodgers leads all active QBs in playoff passer rating (3rd all-time behind Starr and Warner), so I don't think it's fair to criticize him for having "only" one ring. IMO it's not a good way to rank players based on the total number of rings (not even QBs). I don't think anybody would consider Roethlisberger or Eli Manning better players than Rodgers.

 

[Ogsponge]

First of all it doesn't make any sense to eliminate Rodgers Super Bowl win from the discussion.

Winning the Super Bowl requires the entire team playing at a high level, not only the QB. Rodgers only once had an elite defense in 2010 and the Packers won the Super Bowl. The only other time the defense finished in the top 10 in points allowed in 2009 the offense put up 45 points in the playoff game at Arizona yet it wasn't enough to win.

Rodgers leads all active QBs in playoff passer rating (3rd all-time behind Starr and Warner), so I don't think it's fair to criticize him for having "only" one ring. IMO it's not a good way to rank players based on the total number of rings (not even QBs). I don't think anybody would consider Roethlisberger or Eli Manning better players than Rodgers.

And to many Packer fans like to ignore that the Packers and Rodgers do not win games when it matters the most, and if we are losing going into the 4th quarter? there is a 80% chance we will lose the game. This team is absolutely horrible at winning close games.

Again, love Rodgers, but when it comes to being truly elite, up to this point, he and the Packers fail. Win the Super Bowl this year and I will change my tune, but until then nothing can be said to make me believe he is the best QB in the game right now, because he is not. He is 2nd.

 

[Croak]

Bart Starr, Otto graham, joe Montana, and Brady all have real solid arguments to the crown.

You gotta excel in the post season, otherwise you land in that 2nd tier of guys that didn't.

Where do you think Johnny Unitas fits in?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And to many Packer fans like to ignore that the Packers and Rodgers do not win games when it matters the most, and if we are losing going into the 4th quarter? there is a 80% chance we will lose the game. This team is absolutely horrible at winning close games.

The Packers are tied for 4th in the NFL in winning percentage when trailing after three quarters at 25% since Rodgers became the starter. They have a record over .500 in one score games since 2008 as well.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I've never understood the "ringzzzz" theory of rankings. Take last season for example. Where does Brady rank if the Seahawks just run the ball and win the game? Is Brady still right up there? Now, I was only using Brady to prove a point, he's a very good QB but once quarterbacks get to a certain level the number of titles they've won becomes a little meaningless. The rest of the team has a lot to do with winning the Super Bowl, it's just easier to say to the public that Brady was terrific rather than point out that Edelman forced three missed tackles and earned half his 110 yards after the catch or that Brady's yards per attempt in the Super Bowl would have ranked 38th in the NFL during the season (bearing in mind that Brady is still really good since Rodger's yards per attempt was a full 1.5 yards lower than Brady's).

 

[Croak]

Not sure if this is off topic, but this just popped up on PFT, check out the results so far; http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...reat-quarterback-would-you-want-in-his-prime/

 

[TJV]

What do the Packers have to do to get one of those? I know a good first step.

Trade for Bill Belichick?

And to many Packer fans like to ignore that the Packers and Rodgers do not win games when it matters the most, and if we are losing going into the 4th quarter? there is a 80% chance we will lose the game. This team is absolutely horrible at winning close games.

The Packers are tied for 4th in the NFL in winning percentage when trailing after three quarters at 25% since Rodgers became the starter. They have a record over .500 in one score games since 2008 as well.

captainWIMM just curious, where did those stats come from? Ogsponge were you quoting a source for your 80% number?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

captainWIMM just curious, where did those stats come from?

I mostly use Pro Football Reference's play index to figure out stuff like that.

Here are the links to the stats I referred to in my previous post:

http://tinyurl.com/pczjxbc

http://tinyurl.com/paw9s2n

 

[Half Empty]

I've never understood the "ringzzzz" theory of rankings. Take last season for example. Where does Brady rank if the Seahawks just run the ball and win the game? Is Brady still right up there? Now, I was only using Brady to prove a point, he's a very good QB but once quarterbacks get to a certain level the number of titles they've won becomes a little meaningless. The rest of the team has a lot to do with winning the Super Bowl, it's just easier to say to the public that Brady was terrific rather than point out that Edelman forced three missed tackles and earned half his 110 yards after the catch or that Brady's yards per attempt in the Super Bowl would have ranked 38th in the NFL during the season (bearing in mind that Brady is still really good since Rodger's yards per attempt was a full 1.5 yards lower than Brady's).

I think you ask and answer in the first half of the above. In Brady's case, he's done enough that anything else from here on out would be pure icing (not sure about meaningless). If the Pats lose last year, he's still 3-3 in the big one, so still in the discussion for best.

 

[Ogsponge]

Trade for Bill Belichick?
captainWIMM just curious, where did those stats come from? Ogsponge were you quoting a source for your 80% number?

Hello Jack, I am probably a bit outdated to be honest, I wish PFF would actually show the full record of 4th quarter combebacks instead of just how many each qb has, A-Rod apparently has a total of 8 now, back in 2013 there was much bally hoo in all forms of the media about the fact that he was 5-24 in 4th quarter comebacks (that was an ESPN inisder article that I don't have access to) but that works out to winning about 17% of the time, so losing 83% of the time. This graphic was even shown on TV you can see a screen shot here

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Aaron Rodgers single greatest strength is also his greatest flaw. He does not take chances, he rarely will try and force the issue when the team is losing. QB that are know for 4th quarter comebacks take chances and win more games in the "clutch" Aaron would rather go 3 and out and pray the defense can get the ball back then throw a high risk/reward pass and try and win the game. Combine this with the fact that the defense has been rather poor at holding opponents and getting the ball back to get another chance and you have a poor record in 4th quarter games.

For the record if I remember correctly the criteria for this was losing by one score or less to start the 4th quarter.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I think you ask and answer in the first half of the above. In Brady's case, he's done enough that anything else from here on out would be pure icing (not sure about meaningless). If the Pats lose last year, he's still 3-3 in the big one, so still in the discussion for best.

That's my point. Peyton Manning is a better QB than Tom Brady. The fact that Manning is 11-13 in the postseason while Brady is 21-8 doesn't supersede the fact that Manning has been a better QB in pretty much every way. Why is it a positive for Brady that he's had the best coach in the NFL for his entire career (I think...most of his career at the least) and much better overall teams than Manning? It never gets brought up that Manning has more fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives than Brady. All that matters is that Brady has a better postseason record...somehow the "tuck" rule and the Seahawks coaching blunder are positive attributes for Brady. Or that it helps Brady's legacy that he threw for less than 150 yards in 27 attempts in his first Super Bowl win while the Rams turned the ball over 3 times and the Pats ran the ball to win.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Trade for Bill Belichick?

I had something less radical in mind.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Hello Jack, I am probably a bit outdated to be honest, I wish PFF would actually show the full record of 4th quarter combebacks instead of just how many each qb has, A-Rod apparently has a total of 8 now, back in 2013 there was much bally hoo in all forms of the media about the fact that he was 5-24 in 4th quarter comebacks (that was an ESPN inisder article that I don't have access to) but that works out to winning about 17% of the time, so losing 83% of the time. This graphic was even shown on TV you can see a screen shot here

Aaron Rodgers single greatest strength is also his greatest flaw. He does not take chances, he rarely will try and force the issue when the team is losing. QB that are know for 4th quarter comebacks take chances and win more games in the "clutch" Aaron would rather go 3 and out and pray the defense can get the ball back then throw a high risk/reward pass and try and win the game. Combine this with the fact that the defense has been rather poor at holding opponents and getting the ball back to get another chance and you have a poor record in 4th quarter games.

For the record if I remember correctly the criteria for this was losing by one score or less to start the 4th quarter.

Since Rodgers became the starter the Packers are ranked fifth in the NFL in points scored in the fourth quarter. I'm quite sure he would have more fourth quarter comebacks (which is a terrible way to measure a QB) if not for the defense being ranked 28th in points allowed over the last 15 minutes of a game since 2008.

 

[HardRightEdge]

....the defense being ranked 28th in points allowed over the last 15 minutes of a game since 2008.

I wonder who should have been held accountable for that? I guess the conditioning programs are to blame.

 

[Ogsponge]

Since Rodgers became the starter the Packers are ranked fifth in the NFL in points scored in the fourth quarter. I'm quite sure he would have more fourth quarter comebacks (which is a terrible way to measure a QB) if not for the defense being ranked 28th in points allowed over the last 15 minutes of a game since 2008.

So do you think that 5-24 record is just an anomaly and not a disturbing truth?

 

[vince]

Rodgers' career as it pertains to 4th quarter comebacks took a 180 degree turn at the midpoint of 2010 - after the Miami game that year.

Here are all Rodgers' (and Brady's) games broken down by different 4th quarter scenarios and outcomes through last year on another forum.

If you count the instances where Rodgers led a 4th quarter comeback for a win, as well as to lead or tie late in the game only to have the defense fail to hold at the end with little/no time on the clock (Rodgers did everything he could do but the defense failed), as Rodgers "successes" here is how his career breaks down with regard to 4th quarter comeback performance.

2008-mid 2010 - 4 successes and 13 failures - .235 success rate
mid 2010 - 2014 - 13 successes and 5 failures - .722 success rate

Brady's career 4th quarter success rate under these same criteria is (same link above):
45 successes and 23 failures - .662 success rate

.662 is stellar no doubt, but what's not commonly understood is, since Rodgers catapulted himself to be widely recognized as on the elite tier of QB in the league in terms of wins (including big wins), production, peformance, etc. (which started halfway through the Super Bowl year), his 4th quarter performance has been even better than Brady's.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/07/03/nfl-quarterback-rankings/3/

Should I assume everyone disagrees?

I'm surprised they didn't rank J.J. Watt as the top 'quarterback'. It seems to be the trendy thing to do.

I think everyone knows, deep down, that Aaron is the best. Some just can't bring themselves to admit it, and some just like to be contrarian. Nonsense aside, A-Rod is easily the class of the NFL.

 

[Ogsponge]

Rodgers' career as it pertains to 4th quarter comebacks took a 180 degree turn at the midpoint of 2010 - after the Miami game that year.

Here are all Rodgers' (and Brady's) games broken down by different 4th quarter scenarios and outcomes through last year on another forum.

If you count the instances where Rodgers led a 4th quarter comeback for a win, as well as to lead or tie late in the game only to have the defense fail to hold at the end with little/no time on the clock (Rodgers did everything he could do but the defense failed), as Rodgers "successes" here is how his career breaks down with regard to 4th quarter comeback performance.

2008-mid 2010 - 4 successes and 13 failures - .235 success rate
mid 2010 - 2014 - 13 successes and 5 failures - .722 success rate

Brady's career 4th quarter success rate under these same criteria is (same link above):
45 successes and 23 failures - .662 success rate

.662 is stellar no doubt, but what's not commonly understood is, since Rodgers catapulted himself to be widely recognized as on the elite tier of QB in the league in terms of wins (including big wins), production, peformance, etc. (which started halfway through the Super Bowl year), his 4th quarter performance has been even better than Brady's.

Where is this guy getting his data from? PFF says Rodgers only has 8 comebacks in his entire career

 

[vince]

He breaks it down by game and it includes all games in which the score was within 7 points either way in the 4th quarter. Not sure what criteria PFF is basing their stat on, but he details every opportunity and scenario since 2008 (the full record as you indicated you wish PFF would have done). It's all there for full vetting and verification so feel free to contradict it if you find it to be inaccurate.

 

[vince]

One significant point of difference Osponge is that the analysis considers the time remaining. In other words, if we're evaluating the QB specifically, you have to give him credit when he performs successfully late in a game only to have his defense fail him as time expires. 7 of Rodgers' 17 successes were instances where he delivered a comeback only to see his defense fail on the last possession of the game where he had no opportunity to come from behind again in that game.

By comparison, Brady's defense failed him on the last possession of the game only 3 of his 45 successes.