Ranking Gute's Top 5 Draft Picks

[tynimiller]

Got asked last night who I felt were Gute's best draft picks so far, which turned in to Top 5...excellent forum discussion topic so here's mine and reasoning beside. Now this is as of this very moment - with zero games played yet this year.

Honorable mention - MVS (Fifth Round 2018) 19th receiver his draft class...yet has the 6th most yards in that group since. Day 3 guys that make it at WR in the league in a sustained way are rare....since 2018 the list is mightedly small.... it's him, Darnell Mooney, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Hunter Renfrow....that's really it and I gotta mention it. Relative to where he was picked I gotta make him the Honorable Mention over Jordan Love...who for sure could end up #1 on this list if he shows he is the QB of the future (unknown atm).

#5 - Christian Watson (Second Round 2022)
It's early I know, and a lot of unwritten parts of his story are in front of us, but there are just incredible amount of metrics which point to him being special. While many wondered if the NFL would be too big, too much and his speed was his only threat....we saw him getting open on proper reads, footwork/route ability grew a TON and making plays on the ball like he always did. I just couldn't ignore him from the list...call it recency bias or hopeful thinking but kid is special and toss in we didn't even have to use a day one pick bumps this up even more.

#4 - Zach Tom (Fourth Round 2022)
Look, I know two guys right off the bat that could still completely flop...but the fact that arguably one of our top 3 offensive linemen goes by the name Zach Tom already, and he got somehow taken in the fourth is vastly too much to ignore. Someday Bakh is going to be gone, Jenkins and Tom are the future STUDS of this line....because well they already are now. The hurdle jumped to be a Day 3 pick able to come into the trenches of the NFL and succeed when your bell is rung as a rookie, albeit an undersized in many opinions, is just crazy unheard of.

#3 - Elgton Jenkins (Second Round 2019)
The draft that gave us two of the ELITES of their position when healthy. Jenkins has been about as perfect as you can hope for us when healthy and at guard...post-injury his play at tackle when needed wasn't what it used to be, but I don't believe there has been another guard in my lifetime as a Packer fan that I think is as clean as him when it comes to his duties. Whether he plays Tackle in the future post-Bakh or not doesn't matter - he's an all pro guard in the NFL, and he is ours!

#2 - Rashan Gary (First Round 2019)
Look...truthfully if Gary hadn't gotten hurt and continued to be the pressure manic he is, good chance I argue he gets the #1 spot...but a lot of this rides on how his 2023 season unfolds. Gary, until his injury, was being predicted as one of the ELITE of the ELITE edge defenders of the next generation....time to make those folks prophets!

#1 - Jaire Alexander (First Round 2018)
Truthfully speaking Jaire is just plain nasty good. When coordinators let him do his thing, this man is RARELY beat...and not just on a whole game sense, but on a every snap sense too. His eliminations of opposing teams WRs is a list IMO unlike many other CBs in the last decade. In a passing league such as the NFL has become...to truly have a guy that is a shutdown corner like him...the value of that is immense.

 

[AmishMafia]

You have to look at the circumstance of the pick as well. Jaire is easily #1 given the trade back, thwn the trade up, and having an extra first round pick the next year. I would say it's one of the best picks (and maneuvering the draft board) by any GM in the last few years.

And I would put Jenkins ahead of Gary. He was picked 30 picks later and has been a dominant and flexible force for the Packers. You can expect more from Gary given his draft spot.

Enegbare and Doubs may make the list this coming year. Valentine will make the list if he continues on his trajectory. For a 7th round pick you can't reasonably expect what he is doing - outplaying players taken 200 picks ahead of him.

 

[tynimiller]

You have to look at the circumstance of the pick as well. Jaire is easily #1 given the trade back, thwn the trade up, and having an extra first round pick the next year. I would say it's one of the best picks (and maneuvering the draft board) by any GM in the last few years.

And I would put Jenkins ahead of Gary. He was picked 30 picks later and has been a dominant and flexible force for the Packers. You can expect more from Gary given his draft spot.

Enegbare and Doubs may make the list this coming year. Valentine will make the list if he continues on his trajectory. For a 7th round pick you can't reasonably expect what he is doing - outplaying players taken 200 picks ahead of him.

I could see Enagbare and Doubs and Valentine having outside shots at making the list for sure, anytime you have a Day 3 turn into a bonafide stud anywhere has to be considered strongly.

 

[OldSchool101]

You have to look at the circumstance of the pick as well. Jaire is easily #1 given the trade back, thwn the trade up, and having an extra first round pick the next year. I would say it's one of the best picks (and maneuvering the draft board) by any GM in the last few years.

We ultimately traded back just a few draft spots and got Jaire +6th rounder + 2019 1st Rounder but we relinquished a 2018 3rd Rounder and backed up a few spots in 2018

That was a brilliant move and we should do this when possible. People forget that thanks to Brian Gutey, Darnell Savage cost us a 3rd rounder.

 

[AmishMafia]

We ultimately traded back just a few draft spots and got Jaire +6th rounder + 2019 1st Rounder but we relinquished a 2018 3rd Rounder and backed up a few spots in 2018

That was a brilliant move and we should do this when possible. People forget that thanks to Brian Gutey, Darnell Savage cost us a 3rd rounder.

Well when you put it like that, it all now makes sense. Gute can't pick a 3rd rounder for beans.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well when you put it like that, it all now makes sense. Gute can't pick a 3rd rounder for beans.

Ah yes. That 3rd Round is like a slow death. It’s like a draft version of “The Casque of Amarillado”

 

[El Guapo]

Great list.

I know, we are only one game into the season, but I think that the #5 needs to be Jordan Love...or at least have him as the honorable mention. Throw out his first game on the road against the Chiefs as an outlier, the kid has looked steady and ready to be the #1 QB. Obviously we don't have enough tape yet, but to draft him in the first round and have it be panning out so far. That's one balsy kahuna!

If we are talking players that have proved it with their play, I would put Jon Runyan in there over Christian Watson. He's been doing it since Day 1 and was a 6th round pick versus 2nd round for Watson.

 

[tynimiller]

Great list.

I know, we are only one game into the season, but I think that the #5 needs to be Jordan Love...or at least have him as the honorable mention. Throw out his first game on the road against the Chiefs as an outlier, the kid has looked steady and ready to be the #1 QB. Obviously we don't have enough tape yet, but to draft him in the first round and have it be panning out so far. That's one balsy kahuna!

If we are talking players that have proved it with their play, I would put Jon Runyan in there over Christian Watson. He's been doing it since Day 1 and was a 6th round pick versus 2nd round for Watson.

You know Runyan truly deserves consideration - absolutely. One could argue ranking him above MVS who pulled my one honorable mention.

 

[ClutchLove]

1) J'aire (by far the best CB we have had since Woodson maybe - he is better than Shields) he might actually make up alone for this terrible draft class
2) Gary (wow! great strategy here to groom him up)
3) Elgtin Jenkins (basically an All Pro from Day One lol)
4) Doubs (comparisons to James Jones aren't unwarranted, but I think he is/will be better than him)
5) Z. Tom (great, but honestly the Packers OL coaching has pretty much ALWAYS been good the past 20+ years so... we have to see how good he really is)

*Justin Jefferson was presumably on their radar before the Vikings got him, so just an FYI ....

 

[tynimiller]

1) J'aire (by far the best CB we have had since Woodson maybe - he is better than Shields) he might actually make up alone for this terrible draft class
2) Gary (wow! great strategy here to groom him up)
3) Elgtin Jenkins (basically an All Pro from Day One lol)
4) Doubs (comparisons to James Jones aren't unwarranted, but I think he is/will be better than him)
5) Z. Tom (great, but honestly the Packers OL coaching has pretty much ALWAYS been good the past 20+ years so... we have to see how good he really is)

*Justin Jefferson was presumably on their radar before the Vikings got him, so just an FYI ....

BIG Doubs fan, was before we drafted him, but him above Tom at this stage I don't think I could do but I completely get it if you allow projecting into the equation for sure.

 

[ClutchLove]

Doubs may have had ~650-700 yard and ~5+ touchdowns if he hadn't gotten injured last year

That's not bad AT ALL for a 4th round pick on a Rookie contract...especially when you had a guy who usually despises throwing to rookies/new WRs

 

[El Guapo]

...and Justin Harrell would have had 30 sacks, 60 TFL, and 1 million tackles if he hadn't gotten injured that year!

 

[ClutchLove]

...and Justin Harrell would have had 30 sacks, 60 TFL, and 1 million tackles if he hadn't gotten injured that year!

... but the Doubs projection is honestly *somewhat* realistic... look at his game log, progression, etc

Harrell was just a BUST...

I wish we could have had TT pick all the 2nd round picks (besides King lol) and then Gute pick all the 1st round picks

 

[milani]

Great list.

I know, we are only one game into the season, but I think that the #5 needs to be Jordan Love...or at least have him as the honorable mention. Throw out his first game on the road against the Chiefs as an outlier, the kid has looked steady and ready to be the #1 QB. Obviously we don't have enough tape yet, but to draft him in the first round and have it be panning out so far. That's one balsy kahuna!

If we are talking players that have proved it with their play, I would put Jon Runyan in there over Christian Watson. He's been doing it since Day 1 and was a 6th round pick versus 2nd round for Watson.

Runyan appears to have stayed on the field longer than many.

 

[El Guapo]

I'm not a huge draftnik, but I did a little digging on him post-draft. Obviously his dad was a great player but he wasn't highly sought after, and even after we drafted him, local sportswriters were agnostic about him. He's done a great job of becoming a solid player. He's no Elgton Jenkins but he's also no slouch. I'm happy that we have him.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

Got asked last night who I felt were Gute's best draft picks so far, which turned in to Top 5...excellent forum discussion topic so here's mine and reasoning beside. Now this is as of this very moment - with zero games played yet this year.

Honorable mention - MVS (Fifth Round 2018) 19th receiver his draft class...yet has the 6th most yards in that group since. Day 3 guys that make it at WR in the league in a sustained way are rare....since 2018 the list is mightedly small.... it's him, Darnell Mooney, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Hunter Renfrow....that's really it and I gotta mention it. Relative to where he was picked I gotta make him the Honorable Mention over Jordan Love...who for sure could end up #1 on this list if he shows he is the QB of the future (unknown atm).

#5 - Christian Watson (Second Round 2022)
It's early I know, and a lot of unwritten parts of his story are in front of us, but there are just incredible amount of metrics which point to him being special. While many wondered if the NFL would be too big, too much and his speed was his only threat....we saw him getting open on proper reads, footwork/route ability grew a TON and making plays on the ball like he always did. I just couldn't ignore him from the list...call it recency bias or hopeful thinking but kid is special and toss in we didn't even have to use a day one pick bumps this up even more.

#4 - Zach Tom (Fourth Round 2022)
Look, I know two guys right off the bat that could still completely flop...but the fact that arguably one of our top 3 offensive linemen goes by the name Zach Tom already, and he got somehow taken in the fourth is vastly too much to ignore. Someday Bakh is going to be gone, Jenkins and Tom are the future STUDS of this line....because well they already are now. The hurdle jumped to be a Day 3 pick able to come into the trenches of the NFL and succeed when your bell is rung as a rookie, albeit an undersized in many opinions, is just crazy unheard of.

#3 - Elgton Jenkins (Second Round 2019)
The draft that gave us two of the ELITES of their position when healthy. Jenkins has been about as perfect as you can hope for us when healthy and at guard...post-injury his play at tackle when needed wasn't what it used to be, but I don't believe there has been another guard in my lifetime as a Packer fan that I think is as clean as him when it comes to his duties. Whether he plays Tackle in the future post-Bakh or not doesn't matter - he's an all pro guard in the NFL, and he is ours!

#2 - Rashan Gary (First Round 2019)
Look...truthfully if Gary hadn't gotten hurt and continued to be the pressure manic he is, good chance I argue he gets the #1 spot...but a lot of this rides on how his 2023 season unfolds. Gary, until his injury, was being predicted as one of the ELITE of the ELITE edge defenders of the next generation....time to make those folks prophets!

#1 - Jaire Alexander (First Round 2018)
Truthfully speaking Jaire is just plain nasty good. When coordinators let him do his thing, this man is RARELY beat...and not just on a whole game sense, but on a every snap sense too. His eliminations of opposing teams WRs is a list IMO unlike many other CBs in the last decade. In a passing league such as the NFL has become...to truly have a guy that is a shutdown corner like him...the value of that is immense.

Top 4 I'm with ya...I'd actually have to SEE Watson suit up and play a game before I can judge him 5th best.

 

[tynimiller]

Got asked last night who I felt were Gute's best draft picks so far, which turned in to Top 5...excellent forum discussion topic so here's mine and reasoning beside. Now this is as of this very moment - with zero games played yet this year.

Honorable mention - MVS (Fifth Round 2018) 19th receiver his draft class...yet has the 6th most yards in that group since. Day 3 guys that make it at WR in the league in a sustained way are rare....since 2018 the list is mightedly small.... it's him, Darnell Mooney, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Hunter Renfrow....that's really it and I gotta mention it. Relative to where he was picked I gotta make him the Honorable Mention over Jordan Love...who for sure could end up #1 on this list if he shows he is the QB of the future (unknown atm).

#5 - Christian Watson (Second Round 2022)
It's early I know, and a lot of unwritten parts of his story are in front of us, but there are just incredible amount of metrics which point to him being special. While many wondered if the NFL would be too big, too much and his speed was his only threat....we saw him getting open on proper reads, footwork/route ability grew a TON and making plays on the ball like he always did. I just couldn't ignore him from the list...call it recency bias or hopeful thinking but kid is special and toss in we didn't even have to use a day one pick bumps this up even more.

#4 - Zach Tom (Fourth Round 2022)
Look, I know two guys right off the bat that could still completely flop...but the fact that arguably one of our top 3 offensive linemen goes by the name Zach Tom already, and he got somehow taken in the fourth is vastly too much to ignore. Someday Bakh is going to be gone, Jenkins and Tom are the future STUDS of this line....because well they already are now. The hurdle jumped to be a Day 3 pick able to come into the trenches of the NFL and succeed when your bell is rung as a rookie, albeit an undersized in many opinions, is just crazy unheard of.

#3 - Elgton Jenkins (Second Round 2019)
The draft that gave us two of the ELITES of their position when healthy. Jenkins has been about as perfect as you can hope for us when healthy and at guard...post-injury his play at tackle when needed wasn't what it used to be, but I don't believe there has been another guard in my lifetime as a Packer fan that I think is as clean as him when it comes to his duties. Whether he plays Tackle in the future post-Bakh or not doesn't matter - he's an all pro guard in the NFL, and he is ours!

#2 - Rashan Gary (First Round 2019)
Look...truthfully if Gary hadn't gotten hurt and continued to be the pressure manic he is, good chance I argue he gets the #1 spot...but a lot of this rides on how his 2023 season unfolds. Gary, until his injury, was being predicted as one of the ELITE of the ELITE edge defenders of the next generation....time to make those folks prophets!

#1 - Jaire Alexander (First Round 2018)
Truthfully speaking Jaire is just plain nasty good. When coordinators let him do his thing, this man is RARELY beat...and not just on a whole game sense, but on a every snap sense too. His eliminations of opposing teams WRs is a list IMO unlike many other CBs in the last decade. In a passing league such as the NFL has become...to truly have a guy that is a shutdown corner like him...the value of that is immense.

Wanted to revisit this now two additional years later. I'll keep the same rankings and one honorable mention...I do have some changes...

#1 - Jaire (First Round 2018) remains his best as he was high draft capital, high performer and when healthy impacts gameplans of opponents 100% of the time.

#2 - Elgton Jenkins (Second Round 2019) Everything as stated is still true, I'd also add in some projection on my part but I sense we are heading towards a third contract for him at some point for being the center of our future (likely will know once 2025 draft is over). In truth I wouldn't be shocked if the announcement breaks we extend Jenkins and plan on him being the center, could pay him like a top 5 Center even and it would be a reduction to his cap hit...but for the sake of Gary's 2024 season I had to swap them.

#3 - Rashan Gary (First Round 2019) Everyone that knows football beyond gradings and such that I talk to doesn't hold to the belief that Gary was bad this year, pressures were down percentage per pass rush snaps quite a bit so I cannot help but pull him down some. What makes the Gary pick elevated more so is the conviction Gute had to pull the pick despite having both Smiths just signed.

#4 - Zach Tom - (Fourth 2022) I don't think it can be understated how quickly Tom came in and absolutely become a rock solid lineman for us. I firmly expect he will be the first and possibly the only expiring contract OL we have after 2025 get an extension given just how high of level of RT play we are getting from him.

#5 - Rasheed Walker - (Seventh 2022) At the time of typing this thread originally Rasheed wasn't even a lock to be our LT let alone predict him to hold down the Left side so well now two years later. To find a guy who year 2 (after not logging a single recorded snap in regular season) could start at LT and then in second year starting be one of the best at pass blocking in the league is just crazy for a Seventh Rounder.

Honorable Mention....could go lots of ways, but in truth to have a third round TE drafted and be in the Top 5 of nearly all big categories for TEs league wide is insane and Tucker Kraft could rapidly fly up this list for me.

 

[gopkrs]

I would most definitely put Tom number 2

 

[tynimiller]

I would most definitely put Tom number 2

He is for sure trending towards bumping Jenkins and Gary down, I just couldn’t do it given he’s essentially played two seasons so far, stellar and a stud but two.

Very fair though absolutely!