Projecting the 53 Man Roster

[Pokerbrat2000]

Go 2 QB's instead of 3. Maybe 3 TE's instead of 4, and 4 RB/FB's instead of 5. The biggest waste of a roster spot? "Long snapper". You tie up a spot for a guy who doesn't do a thing but snap for kicks. Train another guy or 2 who plays another position and voila! An extra roster spot.

I'm on board with keeping only Rodgers and Kizer.

I think with MLF's scheme, 4 TE's is what ends up happening. Now if they think Lewis has lost a step, he could be a cut, but I still think they will want 4 TE's.

While I agree on the Long Snapper being an odd keep, it seems like it has become the way of the NFL and I am guessing, the importance of that chemistry between him and the holder for FG's and XP's, as well as with the punter is THAT important, that he is worth a spot.

The other factor that will heavily impact the final 53 is injuries. For example, Burks being injured but predicted to come back. He initially requires a roster spot and then can be IR'd and replaced with someone who cleared waivers. If he is slated to be ready to play in less than 6 weeks, then he sits on the 53, but they need an ILB to cover his spot. Kevin "the glass" King might put the Packers in the same predicament at CB.

So it isn't always about keeping the best players, but keeping the most well rounded team that you want to start the season with, as well as protecting a few of the starters who can't go right away.

 

[gopkrs]

Yes, I wouldn't want to have to decide either, but the coaches and Gute have the next 11 days to sift through everything they have and will see. I keep leaning away from Davis, simply because he reminds me of Jeff Janis, in that he just hasn't shown much as a WR. That may change for him and it could end up being the same for the other 3. Being able to contribute on special teams is pretty big when it comes to any backup player.

Most of us also don't get to see what goes on at practice or during other aspects of training camp and interactions with QB1 and coaches. To me those are probably the bigger variables in making the final decision.

One other unknown and tough to figure out is that some players are just gamers and maybe don't do as well in practice. I guess that part of it is, for coaches, kind of an art. But an important consideration I think. Especially if two players are close.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

One other unknown and tough to figure out is that some players are just gamers and maybe don't do as well in practice. I guess that part of it is, for coaches, kind of an art. But an important consideration I think. Especially if two players are close.

Yup, a ton of stuff that we as fans don't know about go into the decisions. We can watch them play in preseason, read all the articles, listen to the opinions of everyone and at the end of the day, the coaches and Gute have way more information to use in making the final decisions. Then, its just our jobs as fans to second guess them when they backfire!

 

[Mondio]

It's difficult to project Davis. I liked him coming out of college, he has some really good points as a returner, but still has things to do better. Unimpressed as a receiver, which I didn't expect. Then last year we didn't get to see much of anything because of injury. They liked him, because they gave him a roster spot on the final 53 despite not doing anything. and reportedly this year they really liked what he was doing in practice, but we never got to see any of it yet. is it real? is it just stories?

and even if they do really like him, can he stay healthy? If Shepard keeps it up, I think it makes it an easy decision. But it's also time for EQ, who i was excited about, to start showing more too. There's going to be some tough decisions especially if guys at other positions make a case they just can't be cut. I'm not cutting a TE just so I can keep an extra marginal receiver that hasn't jumped up and said, "this is my spot" Likewise, i'm not keeping 4 RB's when the 3rd and 4th don't seem to offer much of anything. I can pick up that level of production at any point in the season should the need arise. Rather keep that extra TE that has earned a spot and roll with what I have if you know what I mean.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's difficult to project Davis. I liked him coming out of college, he has some really good points as a returner, but still has things to do better.

I hope this is the difference between TT and Gute, hanging on to "hopefuls" too long. TT seemed to build the bottom half of his teams with these kinds of guys. Not sure if it was to prove to himself and others that he found diamonds in the rough or he just didn't have better proven Vets to hang on to or sign.

While I can't say it as 100% fact, since I don't follow the Patriots that closely, but it seems like one of Belichicks ingredients for success every year is back filling his roster with veteran experience. Picking up castoffs that just weren't needed by other teams and having those guys ready to step in when needed.

All that said, I like Shepherd and Lazard but really until they prove themselves in a real game, they too are just hopefuls and one or both of them might be filling out the bottom of the WR depth chart.

 

[PackerDNA]

I'm not even disagreeing with you guys or any of your points. I'm just trying to find a way for them to keep players that we're sure to lose if we try to stash them on the practice squad.
Mondio, Rogers had a lot of good things to say about st. Brown yesterday.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

You can pretty much place a bet in Vegas that Davis will miss a chunk of the season with injuries. I'd take Shepard over him.

Davis's injury history almost certainly will factor into the decision.

I do believe, however, that if Davis is healthy and cut loose by Green Bay, he has an excellent chance of landing on another roster as a kick returner. Where he goes from there is yet to be seen.

I like what I've seen from Shephard thus far, but it's an admittedly small sample size.

 

[Pkrjones]

The biggest waste of a roster spot? "Long snapper". You tie up a spot for a guy who doesn't do a thing but snap for kicks. Train another guy or 2 who plays another position and voila! An extra roster spot.

I'm 90% sure that you're joking... but the 1st time the new long snapper rolls one back to the holder and Crosby misses from 35 Gute would be bringing back a real snapper.

Let Scott handle kickoffs and go for 2 points EVERY TD... no kicker wasting a roster spot. There's 2 roster spots free'd up!!

All joking aside, I'd look to trade Allison or Davis to Miami for a (5th round?) pick in '20. Miami might be a good place to trade an OL on the chopping block as well.

 

[Mondio]

I'm not even disagreeing with you guys or any of your points. I'm just trying to find a way for them to keep players that we're sure to lose if we try to stash them on the practice squad.
Mondio, Rogers had a lot of good things to say about st. Brown yesterday.

I like EQ, I expect much bigger things from him this year. Just saying, there are some guys pushing for spots and trying to take a spot. it's time for these guys to do that as well. they aren't getting by on potential anymore if someone else stands up and says, "seats taken"

 

[PackerDNA]

I'm 90% sure that you're joking... but the 1st time the new long snapper rolls one back to the holder and Crosby misses from 35 Gute would be bringing back a real snapper.

Let Scott handle kickoffs and go for 2 points EVERY TD... no kicker wasting a roster spot. There's 2 roster spots free'd up!!

All joking aside, I'd look to trade Allison or Davis to Miami for a (5th round?) pick in '20. Miami might be a good place to trade an OL on the chopping block as well.

Not joking at all. When I played, I played multiple positions and trained myself to long snap. Became the LS, and never blew one. Same job, same distance, same everything. But the pros can't do it?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Not joking at all. When I played, I played multiple positions and trained myself to long snap. Became the LS, and never blew one. Same job, same distance, same everything. But the pros can't do it?

This might answer a few of your questions.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/19/17173142/long-snappers-nfl-college-football

 

[Mondio]

Not joking at all. When I played, I played multiple positions and trained myself to long snap. Became the LS, and never blew one. Same job, same distance, same everything. But the pros can't do it?

Rob Davis even commented on my long snapping a couple summers ago

But i've heard explained as that it has become such a specialty, not just the LS, but the entire punt and FG unit, those guys go practice while everyone else is practicing. It was more disruptive to pull out starters and backups doing their respective jobs in the regular offense or defense, then it was to dedicate a roster spot to it.

 

[PackerDNA]

This might answer a few of your questions.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/19/17173142/long-snappers-nfl-college-football

All well and good. But anyone can get injured anytime. Again, these are pros. This is all they do, all day everyday. Most of the article sounds like a lot of excuses as to why a learnable skill just can't be done.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

To me this is a bit like saying "anyone can return a punt/kick". Well sure, but some can do it a lot better than others. As the article I tagged above and Mondio pointed out, teams have found that working the LS, P and K together as a group is a lot more productive and results in fewer mistake during an actual game, versus pulling a guy from his positional drills to only be able to briefly work on snapping and then back to his other duties. That ends up being disruptive to that players learning the skilled position he was kept for.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

All well and good. But anyone can get injured anytime. Again, these are pros. This is all they do, all day everyday. Most of the article sounds like a lot of excuses as to why a learnable skill just can't be done.

Yes, anyone can injured at anytime, that is why they have backups. As far as "This is all they do, all day everyday." that is the whole point of a LS specialist. If you have a TE handling the duties, it is not what they do all day, everyday.

I think the fact that most, if not all 32 teams have gone to it, should be proof enough for you. I would rather see the Packers use a roster spot on having a dedicated LS VS using the roster spot on a guy that may never play. The difference between a W or L could literally come down to one bad snap and reducing the odds of that happening is worth having the specialist IMO.

 

[PackerDNA]

That's how they choose to handle the question, fine. The idea that it can't be done is ridiculous.

 

[Mondio]

I feel like we should have a long snapping challenge LOL

I'll be at the Eagles Packers game on the 26th, i'll bring a video camera too

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That's how they choose to handle the question, fine. The idea that it can't be done is ridiculous.

Nobody ever said that it couldn't be done and that WAS the way it was done for a long time. Teams just started realizing that it was a better move to have a dedicated specialist for LS.

Some teams have experimented with a dedicated kickoff guy and one for FG's, but due to the few times I have seen it done, most must have decided it just wasn't worth the roster spot. Much like I am sure Scott could kick FG's and Crosby could punt, but both of them do their own jobs much better.

 

[Dantés]

The tight end position on this team really frustrates me.

Petals wants to be able to run and pass effectively out of the same personnel group. His whole offense is predicated on attacking a defense in different ways but out of alignments that make everything appear the same.

But the Packers have two tight ends that they figure to keep who are not dual threats.

Graham (we think) is a passing game weapon, but he's a major liability in the running game. Lewis (we think) is still a good blocker, but he isn't scaring anyone in the passing game. So neither fit the approach of the offense. They each either tip the offenses hand before the play OR render the play ineffective by their crappy execution.

And because they're both so limited, and the young guys are ostensibly not ready yet, we may be forced into keeping a fourth tight end. So you end up losing a roster spot somewhere else and you still don't have a guy that really fits the offense.

My biggest criticism of Gutekunst to this point in his tenure is the Graham debacle. It was a bad idea to sign him and a worse idea to keep him.

I would seriously consider giving Tonyan real snaps early in the season and seeing what he does with them. He would seem to be the only dark horse hope of coming up with a tight end that actually fits the offense this season.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The tight end position on this team really frustrates me.

Petals wants to be able to run and pass effectively out of the same personnel group. His whole offense is predicated on attacking a defense in different ways but out of alignments that make everything appear the same.

But the Packers have two tight ends that they figure to keep who are not dual threats.

Graham (we think) is a passing game weapon, but he's a major liability in the running game. Lewis (we think) is still a good blocker, but he isn't scaring anyone in the passing game. So neither fit the approach of the offense. They each either tip the offenses hand before the play OR render the play ineffective by their crappy execution.

And because they're both so limited, and the young guys are ostensibly not ready yet, we may be forced into keeping a fourth tight end. So you end up losing a roster spot somewhere else and you still don't have a guy that really fits the offense.

My biggest criticism of Gutekunst to this point in his tenure is the Graham debacle. It was a bad idea to sign him and a worse idea to keep him.

I would seriously consider giving Tonyan real snaps early in the season and seeing what he does with them. He would seem to be the only dark horse hope of coming up with a tight end that actually fits the offense this season.

While I agree with that to some extent, Graham was signed when MM was the coach. I don't think Gutey would have signed him had MLF been the coach, so hard to criticize him too much for that. Could they have taken the cap hit and dumped Graham with MM, sure, but I think JG is the only TE that is a real pass threat at this point. I also am cautiously optimistic that we see more out of the #12 and #80 connection this year.

So the challenge will be to find formations that work for both the run and the pass. I think Sternbegerger will provide some of that as he gets more seasoned, as will Tonyan.

While Graham isn't known for his run blocking, it doesn't mean the Packers won't run when he is in there. Lewis on the other hand probably tips your hand to the defense, that you are most likely going to run and for that reason, I would be fine with seeing him cut and replaced if a 4th TE is needed.

Play the hand that has been dealt to you and play it well, because most of the moving parts are pretty transparent at this point.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's difficult to project Davis. I liked him coming out of college, he has some really good points as a returner, but still has things to do better. Unimpressed as a receiver, which I didn't expect. Then last year we didn't get to see much of anything because of injury. They liked him, because they gave him a roster spot on the final 53 despite not doing anything. and reportedly this year they really liked what he was doing in practice, but we never got to see any of it yet. is it real? is it just stories?

and even if they do really like him, can he stay healthy? If Shepard keeps it up, I think it makes it an easy decision. But it's also time for EQ, who i was excited about, to start showing more too. There's going to be some tough decisions especially if guys at other positions make a case they just can't be cut. I'm not cutting a TE just so I can keep an extra marginal receiver that hasn't jumped up and said, "this is my spot" Likewise, i'm not keeping 4 RB's when the 3rd and 4th don't seem to offer much of anything. I can pick up that level of production at any point in the season should the need arise. Rather keep that extra TE that has earned a spot and roll with what I have if you know what I mean.

Yeah I get it. If Shepherd just holds serve the next two PS games, he’ll be in and Davis will be out.

 

[GleefulGary]

While I agree with that to some extent, Graham was signed when MM was the coach. I don't think Gutey would have signed him had MLF been the coach, so hard to criticize him too much for that. Could they have taken the cap hit and dumped Graham with MM, sure, but I think JG is the only TE that is a real pass threat at this point. I also am cautiously optimistic that we see more out of the #12 and #80 connection this year.

So the challenge will be to find formations that work for both the run and the pass. I think Sternbegerger will provide some of that as he gets more seasoned, as will Tonyan.

While Graham isn't known for his run blocking, it doesn't mean the Packers won't run when he is in there. Lewis on the other hand probably tips your hand to the defense, that you are most likely going to run and for that reason, I would be fine with seeing him cut and replaced if a 4th TE is needed.

Play the hand that has been dealt to you and play it well, because most of the moving parts are pretty transparent at this point.

Graham didn't fit what MM was doing either.

 

[Mondio]

I didn't think it was a really smart signing at the time either. I thought maybe he'd be a better redzone threat, 10+ TD's and his 50-60 catches would be a best case scenario. That didn't happen

 

[OldSchool101]

I agree with Pokerbrat that there's no reason to believe the Packers will keep eight wide receivers on the roster. Most likely only six will make the 53.

I was also thinking this. But there’s gonna be at least 1-2 WRs that will be very difficult to send packing.

How many do you think we will try to stash on the PS?

 

[Dantés]

While I agree with that to some extent, Graham was signed when MM was the coach. I don't think Gutey would have signed him had MLF been the coach, so hard to criticize him too much for that. Could they have taken the cap hit and dumped Graham with MM, sure, but I think JG is the only TE that is a real pass threat at this point. I also am cautiously optimistic that we see more out of the #12 and #80 connection this year.

So the challenge will be to find formations that work for both the run and the pass. I think Sternbegerger will provide some of that as he gets more seasoned, as will Tonyan.

While Graham isn't known for his run blocking, it doesn't mean the Packers won't run when he is in there. Lewis on the other hand probably tips your hand to the defense, that you are most likely going to run and for that reason, I would be fine with seeing him cut and replaced if a 4th TE is needed.

Play the hand that has been dealt to you and play it well, because most of the moving parts are pretty transparent at this point.

I criticize the Graham signing because he's an overrated player-- not because he doesn't fit the offense.

I criticize the Graham keeping because he doesn't fit the offense.

I am sure that they will run with Graham on the field. I am also sure that Graham's participation in run blocking will mean a less effective rushing attack.

I definitely agree that you have to play the hand that's dealt, but in that analogy, Gute is the dealer. He chose Graham and he chose to keep Graham. I think he's sending good money after bad, so to speak.