Post-draft cuts, and potential GB pick ups

[Half Empty]

And the rookie kicker misses a 40 yarder to win the championship game.................

I've read this a couple of times and still have to ask for an explanation - how does one go about missing a kick to win a game?

 

[tynimiller]

I've read this a couple of times and still have to ask for an explanation - how does one go about missing a kick to win a game?

VERY VERY CAREFULLY

 

[adambr2]

And the rookie kicker misses a 40 yarder to win the championship game.................

This has been re-hashed a million times but there is no difference between the likelihood of Crosby or a rookie making or missing a clutch FG. This has been shown statistically plenty of times here.

 

[Mondio]

This has been re-hashed a million times but there is no difference between the likelihood of Crosby or a rookie making or missing a clutch FG. This has been shown statistically plenty of times here.

you're right, statistically, there isn't any difference. But when that rookie makes statistically, the same kicks, for 5-10 years in the league, he isn't getting paid 500K a year anymore either. I bet statistically, any 500K kicker that does well enough to get a 2nd or 3rd contract, is making much more than a rookie kicker coming in that year. All these guys making so much less than Mason, will surpass him in a couple year and statistically, they'll probably all be in the 85-88% range for makes.

 

[adambr2]

Ready for a weird food analogy?

Ok, let's say every Sunday in the fall you eat at a local pizza joint, Mason's Pizza. You're pretty happy with this pizza and best of all, it's only $5 a pie.

Now fast forward 4 years, and Mason's decides it's going to start charging you $40 a pizza. It figures you're a brand loyal guy and that you'd rather just pay it than find a new pizza place.

At the same time, a new place opens in town, Ross' Pizza, for the same $5 that you used to pay at Mason's. You try it out and determine it tastes and looks more or less exactly the same.

Are you going to just keep paying the $40 at Mason's? Or course not, you're a sane individual and you like your money. You're going to switch.

But for some reason, this is the kind of brand loyalty we show to Crosby. Veteran kickers are a major market inefficiency an it blows my mind that supposedly brilliant minds like Thompson have not been able to figure this out.

 

[adambr2]

you're right, statistically, there isn't any difference. But when that rookie makes statistically, the same kicks, for 5-10 years in the league, he isn't getting paid 500K a year anymore either. I bet statistically, any 500K kicker that does well enough to get a 2nd or 3rd contract, is making much more than a rookie kicker coming in that year. All these guys making so much less than Mason, will surpass him in a couple year and statistically, they'll probably all be in the 85-88% range for makes.

Which is why it makes a lot of market sense to just switch kickers every 4 years.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

you're right, statistically, there isn't any difference. But when that rookie makes statistically, the same kicks, for 5-10 years in the league, he isn't getting paid 500K a year anymore either. I bet statistically, any 500K kicker that does well enough to get a 2nd or 3rd contract, is making much more than a rookie kicker coming in that year. All these guys making so much less than Mason, will surpass him in a couple year and statistically, they'll probably all be in the 85-88% range for makes.

I really don't understand what point you're trying to make. The Packers could have saved $13 million in cap space over the next four years by bringing in a rookie kicker this offseason while most likely getting the same production.

It's really not that hard to understand that would have been positive for the team moving forward.

 

[Mondio]

Which is why it makes a lot of market sense to just switch kickers every 4 years.

I don't agree, every year teams try to find that kicker and every year teams struggle to find a reliable kicker. besides, I happen to like the invest in players and team attitude this FO keeps in managing a team. I don't care for the disposable heroes mentality. I don't think it's good for a team from year to year, and I don't think it's good for the long haul.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't agree, every year teams try to find that kicker and every year teams struggle to find a reliable kicker.

There's no guarantee Crosby doesn't struggle again like he did in 2012.

besides, I happen to like the invest in players and team attitude this FO keeps in managing a team. I don't care for the disposable heroes mentality. I don't think it's good for a team from year to year, and I don't think it's good for the long haul.

With the NFL using a hard salary cap investing in a player whose production could be matched by a less expensive one isn't a smart business decision. And while you may like the Packers re-signing Crosby for whatever obscure reasons the deal will result in the team not being able to bring back a different player at a more difficult position to replace next offseason.

 

[adambr2]

I don't agree, every year teams try to find that kicker and every year teams struggle to find a reliable kicker. besides, I happen to like the invest in players and team attitude this FO keeps in managing a team. I don't care for the disposable heroes mentality. I don't think it's good for a team from year to year, and I don't think it's good for the long haul.

No, they really don't, and the ones that do are quickly dumping that kicker to the curb for the next guy on the list. I think Pittsburgh was flailing near the beginning of the year last year looking for a kicker, but guess what? By the end of the year they had the most productive kicking game in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the worst kickers last year? Rams, Raiders, Falcons...all veteran kickers!

All NFL kickers these days are basically the same. Somewhere in the 80-90% range, all with a pretty equal shot of putting up a dud year. We're not talking about a position where your best guys are consistently 90+ and your worst are consistently 60-70. There is very little difference and certainly not worth a 800% raise to try to chase that difference.

 

[Mondio]

a million dollars to provide consistency and keep your mantra and message to the entire team, that if you work hard, you will be rewarded is pittance.

 

[Half Empty]

I don't know who most of the kickers are, but for those that are aware of longevity, here are last year's stats - http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/fieldGoalPct

 

[Half Empty]

a million dollars to provide consistency and keep your mantra and message to the entire team, that if you work hard, you will be rewarded is pittance.

Well, if that had been explained earlier, it might have prevented a lot of posting. I thought the message was supposed to be that if you produced, you were rewarded.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I never said there wouldn't be significant roster turnover, just that it shouldn't be classified as a rebuild, which implies a period of non-contention.

I call it the consequence of spending stupid amounts of money on highly replaceable players like Crosby and Perry.

I think the proper term is "rebuild on the fly".

The 2017 cap hits for the top 8 players (excluding the FA's of course) demands some scrutiny.

 

[bigbubbatd]

I don't know who most of the kickers are, but for those that are aware of longevity, here are last year's stats - http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/fieldGoalPct

Looking at those stats the only thing separating Mason from. The top 10 is he doesn't get as many chip shots. Only 11 inside 39 yards. He made all of them. If he gets 5 to 10 more like the others he is a top 10 kicker easily

Crosby's 16 kicks over 40 yards was at or near the top as well

 

[adambr2]

a million dollars to provide consistency and keep your mantra and message to the entire team, that if you work hard, you will be rewarded is pittance.

If it really was just a million dollars, we probably wouldn't be debating this much.

Also, that hard work will be unrewarded for a different Packer next year since we prioritized Crosby and won't have the money to keep some more crucial players.

 

[Mondio]

GB has largely been able to keep everyone they've targeted to keep. I don't see that changing. I doubt Mason's salary is going to keep them from signing Sitton. Age, mounting injuries and how much they think he's worth going forward are going to matter more than Mason's money. IF any of those players aren't signed it's because our staff thinks they are going to be outplayed by someone else working hard or someone else is willing to pay them a lot more. It won't be because GB can't pay them more, because they have their worth already established in terms of the entire team

 

[adambr2]

Looking at those stats the only thing separating Mason from. The top 10 is he doesn't get as many chip shots. Only 11 inside 39 yards. He made all of them. If he gets 5 to 10 more like the others he is a top 10 kicker easily

Crosby's 16 kicks over 40 yards was at or near the top as well

Like the year before when Mason had 19 attempts inside 39 and was a top 23 kicker with a 81.8 success rate?

I swear people will make every effort to spin Crosby's numbers to try to justify the contract no matter how much the evidence says otherwise.

 

[Vrill]

Perry played only 33.4% of the defensive snaps last season. While he performed really well in the playoffs I don't have any doubt the Packers overpaid for a rotational player, especially with Matthews moving outside again.

I've personally never minded us overpaying a little bit for a player on just a 1 year contract. Its a one and done kind of thing and hey, if Perry stars this year and does really well, maybe we keep him. But if hes status quo as usual, adios. No harm done.

 

[Mondio]

was that the year they had 7 blocked FG attempts and the special teams coach was fired after?

 

[adambr2]

I've personally never minded us overpaying a little bit for a player on just a 1 year contract. Its a one and done kind of thing and hey, if Perry stars this year and does really well, maybe we keep him. But if hes status quo as usual, adios. No harm done.

This might have been true under the previous CBA but under the current one, unused cap room can be rolled over to the next year. So even a bad 1 year contract does hurt you the next year.

 

[adambr2]

was that the year they had 7 blocked FG attempts and the special teams coach was fired after?

3 FG attempts, 7 total kicks/punts. Not saying 3 is good but there's a pretty significant difference between 3 and 7.

 

[Mondio]

i didn't remember how many, so I had to look. you're right 3 FG's, 2 PAT's and 2 punts blocked. Even make 2 of 3 of those blocked fG's and his percentage is 87-88%. Being generous and assuming he made all 3, that's over 90% even assuming he makes just 1, it's above 85%. any of which probably put him better than "a top 23 kicker"

That's the problem i have with stats, they're just numbers. and the year before he had 22 kicks 39 on in and made them all and was at 89.2% for the year. the how's and why's get lost

 

[adambr2]

i didn't remember how many, so I had to look. you're right 3 FG's, 2 PAT's and 2 punts blocked. Even make 2 of 3 of those blocked fG's and his percentage is 87-88%. Being generous and assuming he made all 3, that's over 90% even assuming he makes just 1, it's above 85%. any of which probably put him better than "a top 23 kicker"

That's the problem i have with stats, they're just numbers. and the year before he had 22 kicks 39 on in and made them all and was at 89.2% for the year. the how's and why's get lost

I don't have time (and I'm sure none of us do) to go back and analyze every kick in the NFL to determine how much kicker fault lied in every kick. Mason Crosby was not the only kicker in the NFL in 2014 who had his kick percentage hurt by blocks.

My point was, and still is, that they are still all pretty much the same, with probably 80% of the league being within 10% of each other in FG percentage.

So at the end of the day it doesn't pay to give one guy $4M to do the same job a UDFA can do for $500K.

 

[Half Empty]

i didn't remember how many, so I had to look. you're right 3 FG's, 2 PAT's and 2 punts blocked. Even make 2 of 3 of those blocked fG's and his percentage is 87-88%. Being generous and assuming he made all 3, that's over 90% even assuming he makes just 1, it's above 85%. any of which probably put him better than "a top 23 kicker"

That's the problem i have with stats, they're just numbers. and the year before he had 22 kicks 39 on in and made them all and was at 89.2% for the year. the how's and why's get lost

Any chance any of the blocked kicks were Crosby's fault?