Plethora of riches

[Poppa San]

Scenario: week 6 or 7, team is playing really well and hitting its stride and no rookies are starting but are getting playing time. Not because they don't deserve it but because the vets all stepped up and grabbed the starting roles. The Packers currently are pencilled in with no extra picks except a few hoped for comp picks. The team appears set with who they have for the next several seasons. Does Gute start to maneuver to maybe bank draft picks a few years down the line, moving some of next year's picks with players if the trade market comes calling and getting a kings ransom maybe in 26 and 27?

 

[OldSchool101]

Scenario: week 6 or 7, team is playing really well and hitting its stride and no rookies are starting but are getting playing time. Not because they don't deserve it but because the vets all stepped up and grabbed the starting roles. The Packers currently are pencilled in with no extra picks except a few hoped for comp picks. The team appears set with who they have for the next several seasons. Does Gute start to maneuver to maybe bank draft picks a few years down the line, moving some of next year's picks with players if the trade market comes calling and getting a kings ransom maybe in 26 and 27?

I think yes

For myself my recommendation is to balance that some. Meaning I might use a player trade IF the price is right and we have good depth. When banking a Day3 selection is valuable. That bonus pick can be used to trade back some and get an extra 5th or 6th Rounder.

One thing that’s been consistent from TT to Gutey is GB believes in not holding back young players. They’ll move on from a veteran if they think they have a youngster at the stage of development needed.

I don’t even know if it needs to be “Riches”. If we can get a 3rd or 4th or 5th Rounder in trade for a player at a position of depth (or a Rounds swap like Rasul) I think thats really valuable if you trust your scouting team.

 

[weeds]

I think "yes" as well ... draft and develop has been the mantra, right? It's hard to believe that the Pack has come so far from the arrival of Ron Wolf where building a winning roster was achieved via "churning" and replacing the Pack's vets with veteran castoffs because other team's cuts were better than the Packer starters.

This time of year, I think a lot of how Wolf churned those rosters into competitive teams. The Pack has had the continuity of The Packer Way, as Wolf called it, over the last 30 years with minor changes in the philosophy which is reflective of success - and draft order ... but yeah, thusfar, Gutey seems to be in a charmed place for the time being.

His legacy and Jordan Love's legacy are joined at the hip now - let's include Matt in that as well. By the end of this season, Gutey will either be the God/Man/Being or the community toilet dependent on Love's performance ... because we all know that NFL teams can only go as far QB1 takes them.

Count me in as one of those "mugwumps" sitting on the fence regarding #10 - my enthusiasm for this year's Packer's team is somewhat muted (holding firm at 10 wins), not to be a nattering nabob, rather ... it's up to #10, either way, a matter of the first 8 Love or the second half Love or some combination of the two Loves from last season. ...and THAT will pave the way for Gutey's next incarnation.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think "yes" as well ... draft and develop has been the mantra, right? It's hard to believe that the Pack has come so far from the arrival of Ron Wolf where building a winning roster was achieved via "churning" and replacing the Pack's vets with veteran castoffs because other team's cuts were better than the Packer starters.

This time of year, I think a lot of how Wolf churned those rosters into competitive teams. The Pack has had the continuity of The Packer Way, as Wolf called it, over the last 30 years with minor changes in the philosophy which is reflective of success - and draft order ... but yeah, thusfar, Gutey seems to be in a charmed place for the time being.

His legacy and Jordan Love's legacy are joined at the hip now - let's include Matt in that as well. By the end of this season, Gutey will either be the God/Man/Being or the community toilet dependent on Love's performance ... because we all know that NFL teams can only go as far QB1 takes them.

Count me in as one of those "mugwumps" sitting on the fence regarding #10 - my enthusiasm for this year's Packer's team is somewhat muted (holding firm at 10 wins), not to be a nattering nabob, rather ... it's up to #10, either way, a matter of the first 8 Love or the second half Love or some combination of the two Loves from last season. ...and THAT will pave the way for Gutey's next incarnation.

I agree. I also think how quickly and to what level Hafley displays his competence as a DC will factor heavily.
I know it’s just on paper but we have the talent on D to be a Top 5 scoring D. It’ll take more than talent though.

The other advantage of GB even getting to a SB is this. Players under contract become even more valuable. Other Teams will be willing to step to acquire our players if that happens. The appeal of that on your resume is strong. That could lead to a player like Stokes getting another 3rd/5th swap etc.

 

[El Guapo]

Does Gute start to maneuver to maybe bank draft picks a few years down the line, moving some of next year's picks with players if the trade market comes calling and getting a kings ransom maybe in 26 and 27?

Honestly, I don't think that he does anything different than in the past. If someone comes calling (like the Bills did with Rasuul Douglas), he will always listen and pull the trigger if the proposal benefits the team in the long run.

 

[gopkrs]

Honestly, I don't think that he does anything different than in the past. If someone comes calling (like the Bills did with Rasuul Douglas), he will always listen and pull the trigger if the proposal benefits the team in the long run.

Yes. While I did not like that trade; I can see that you cannot pay everyone when their rookie contract is up. So you have to pick and choose who you really need going forward, pay them, and then keep doing a good job of drafting and looking at practice squad players. Keep those O line players coming in the draft imo. You can't pay them all so keep em coming.

 

[Poppa San]

Yes. While I did not like that trade; I can see that you cannot pay everyone when their rookie contract is up. So you have to pick and choose who you really need going forward, pay them, and then keep doing a good job of drafting and looking at practice squad players. Keep those O line players coming in the draft imo. You can't pay them all so keep em coming.

We need to get the payments due dates in the WR & TE rooms spread out. Everyone really good but Melton seems to come up for a new contract in a two year window.

 

[gopkrs]

We need to get the payments due dates in the WR & TE rooms spread out. Everyone really good but Melton seems to come up for a new contract in a two year window.

Hopefully Melton continues balling like last year. We do have some wide outs bunched up as far as when their 1st contracts expire. And our two TEs. I guess one thing to do is on a couple of them, extend a year ahead of time. And to your point, maybe sign some 3 and some 4 year contracts. We'll have to see how they continue to play. But we are in a good position right now. So far it seems like LaFleur's pass play calling is well suited for having a bunch of good receivers who hang on to the ball and find the open spot on the field, rather than having the elite receiver. Although Watson has the potential. imho

 

[Heyjoe4]

Hopefully Melton continues balling like last year. We do have some wide outs bunched up as far as when their 1st contracts expire. And our two TEs. I guess one thing to do is on a couple of them, extend a year ahead of time. And to your point, maybe sign some 3 and some 4 year contracts. We'll have to see how they continue to play. But we are in a good position right now. So far it seems like LaFleur's pass play calling is well suited for having a bunch of good receivers who hang on to the ball and find the open spot on the field, rather than having the elite receiver. Although Watson has the potential. imho

Watson certainly has the potential to be a #1 WR. The speed is there and route running and catching have all seemed to improve. He has to get his health and his head in a better place though. Expectations are understandably high for a #34 pick. This is really a "prove it or move it" year for him. He's shown flashes. Time to put it all together.

 

[OldSchool101]

Honestly, I don't think that he does anything different than in the past. If someone comes calling (like the Bills did with Rasuul Douglas), he will always listen and pull the trigger if the proposal benefits the team in the long run.

I really liked Rasul that was a great FA pickup. But to get his services for a couple years and then getting a 3rd Rounder the very next draft (giving a 5th back) that’s a great value.

That Rasul trade also spoke to what they think of Eric Stokes return. That and the fact we almost didn’t draft at CB with all those picks. We are very optimistic on Stokes and for good reason he’s a good player. IF Stokes can just return to even Rookie form we’re in for a treat.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Honestly, I don't think that he does anything different than in the past. If someone comes calling (like the Bills did with Rasuul Douglas), he will always listen and pull the trigger if the proposal benefits the team in the long run.

I think one of the benefits of the last 4 years of excellent drafting will start to become more clear over the next couple of years, especially if Gutekenst is able to keep drafting at something even close to that level.

We need to remember that in the last 4 drafts, Gutekunst has had a total of 46 picks by my count - that's the equivalent of 3 extra 7-round drafts; it's by far the most of any team in the league. 7 years worth of draft picks in 4 seasons. That doesn't mean he's drafted 46 players in 4 years, because he packaged several of them to move around the board. But he's had 7 years of draft capital to use over the last 4 years to build the roster.

We currently have 6 players from the 2020 draft/UDFA class on our roster, but we have 12 from 2021, and 12 from 2022.

And by this count, no fewer than 14 from 2023.

And that's not counting however many players from this season's draft make the team.

Now... granted, a number of those 44 players are "Just Another Guy" type players, and as we draft and develop younger players, they'll be voted off the island anyway and replaced with younger, talented players who are cheaper and still have more upside. But as we move into 2024-25, with a third or half our roster players coming up on contract years, some of our proven young players - guys who are at the very least legitimate contributors - are going to make excellent trade bait going into 25.

Many of these guys would have been riding the bench for 3 years on most teams, but in Green Bay (with our youth movement these last couple of years) they've had a lot of opportunity to show what they can do. They'll have had opportunities to show their potential that a lot of players from their draft class would never get with most other teams. Green Bay simply can't afford to extend all of them as we continue to draft a dozen younger players each year. We have no choice but to move them, and those we can't trade will bring mid-round comp picks.

If Gutekunst continues to scout and draft talent the way he has for the last 3 or 4 years, we may be entering a period of time when we should regularly be in a position to harvest a number of Day Three picks, or even Day Two picks if we bundle them with Day Three picks of our own. Or we let them fo FA, and get comp picks for them. Some of these kids of today are going to see decent contracts a few years from now, which would likely mean a fair number of Day Two and early Day Three comp picks.

Future looks so bright, we're all gonna go blind.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think one of the benefits of the last 4 years of excellent drafting will start to become more clear over the next couple of years, especially if Gutekenst is able to keep drafting at something even close to that level.

We need to remember that in the last 4 drafts, Gutekunst has had a total of 46 picks by my count - that's the equivalent of 3 extra 7-round drafts; it's by far the most of any team in the league. 7 years worth of draft picks in 4 seasons. That doesn't mean he's drafted 46 players in 4 years, because he packaged several of them to move around the board. But he's had 7 years of draft capital to use over the last 4 years to build the roster.

We currently have 6 players from the 2020 draft/UDFA class on our roster, but we have 12 from 2021, and 12 from 2022.

And by this count, no fewer than 14 from 2023.

And that's not counting however many players from this season's draft make the team.

Now... granted, a number of those 44 players are "Just Another Guy" type players, and as we draft and develop younger players, they'll be voted off the island anyway and replaced with younger, talented players who are cheaper and still have more upside. But as we move into 2024-25, with a third or half our roster players coming up on contract years, some of our proven young players - guys who are at the very least legitimate contributors - are going to make excellent trade bait going into 25.

Many of these guys would have been riding the bench for 3 years on most teams, but in Green Bay (with our youth movement these last couple of years) they've had a lot of opportunity to show what they can do. They'll have had opportunities to show their potential that a lot of players from their draft class would never get with most other teams. Green Bay simply can't afford to extend all of them as we continue to draft a dozen younger players each year. We have no choice but to move them, and those we can't trade will bring mid-round comp picks.

If Gutekunst continues to scout and draft talent the way he has for the last 3 or 4 years, we may be entering a period of time when we should regularly be in a position to harvest a number of Day Three picks, or even Day Two picks if we bundle them with Day Three picks of our own. Or we let them fo FA, and get comp picks for them. Some of these kids of today are going to see decent contracts a few years from now, which would likely mean a fair number of Day Two and early Day Three comp picks.

Future looks so bright, we're all gonna go blind.

So true. I’ve been saying this all along. Some Fans or Posters (even some of our own) want to dismiss the “number” of draft selections as seemingly almost irrelevant. Yet even a 7th is very valuable. It’s still essentially a top 250 player choice from Thousands of options across all different Colleges. We’re talking the best 250 players across 130 schools in FBS alone, not to mention FCS or Div2 etc. Plus if you truly draft well, they are really more like the top overall 150-200 type prospects in the entire available crop, if you know what to look for.

First of all. Gluten is showcasing his ability to score “high” on the draft meter. He doesn’t need to be #1 each year. It’s about consistency and he’s proven he’ll miss like all GM’s do, but his overall GM “RAS card” still floats around a 9.0. I’d put him in that top 10-20% of draft success. Once Gutey puts enough great players into the equation, they begin to overlap and sooner or later you hit on a draft or even consecutive drafts and that Roster pops with premium talent. Thats where I see us now.

We clearly hit at QB. IF The 2024 draft crop produces above the norm?? Watch out! Because we’re already a Playoff caliber Roster as is. Getting just 2-3 more upgrades over our 2023 roster would make us very formidable. Like I said, we resemble in many ways that 2009 type feel. If we somehow hit a draft Bumper Crop? Which looking around is quite possible. We’re going to be hard to beat. That won’t be for 1 season either.

 

[El Guapo]

Look at Gutekunst's successes in the 7th round so far:
- Jonathan Ford
- Rasheed Walker
- Carrington Valentine
- Anthony Johnson Jr
- Grant DuBose
- Kalen King

You've got a legit starter at LT in Walker, and a bunch of guys who are serious contenders at their positions. Our GM doesn't throw away picks at the end of the draft. He's out there on the 7th round beach with his metal detector looking for gold.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Look at Gutekunst's successes in the 7th round so far:
- Jonathan Ford
- Rasheed Walker
- Carrington Valentine
- Anthony Johnson Jr
- Grant DuBose
- Kalen King

You've got a legit starter at LT in Walker, and a bunch of guys who are serious contenders at their positions. Our GM doesn't throw away picks at the end of the draft. He's out there on the 7th round beach with his metal detector looking for gold.

Gluten and even TT before this did well in later rounds, although Gluten seems like a master at drafting in Rd 7. All the more reason to value quantity of picks. And Gluten is always ready to trade back for more picks, and at value.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Scenario: week 6 or 7, team is playing really well and hitting its stride and no rookies are starting but are getting playing time. Not because they don't deserve it but because the vets all stepped up and grabbed the starting roles. The Packers currently are pencilled in with no extra picks except a few hoped for comp picks. The team appears set with who they have for the next several seasons. Does Gute start to maneuver to maybe bank draft picks a few years down the line, moving some of next year's picks with players if the trade market comes calling and getting a kings ransom maybe in 26 and 27?

From what I've observed (or think I've observed) in watching Gute work over the last few years, I think it's highly likely that's been part of his long term strategy for years, and he's been biding his time waiting for the right year. And I have a Gute feeling this may be the year he starts to play that card.

There are always several teams who think they may be just That One Player short of a Lombardi... maybe a team that's doing a little better than expected, and thinks that it's worth roling the dice and making their move a year early; or a team that started the season with high hopes but fell a little short... maybe an injury at a key position, or a disappointing season from a player they had been counting on. Teams that will overvalue and overpay for one of the many promising youing talents on our team.

If Gute can keep scouting, drafting, and developing at this level, we may soon become the 1970s and 80s New York Yankees of the NFL - a feeder system for much of the league, pipelining promising young players in their 2nd or 3rd contract year into other team's rosters (instead of AAA minor league prospects) and usually coming away with the better end of the bargain.

Obviously there are a lot of moving parts to this scenario, and in order to play out like that a significant percentage of those moving parts would have to fall into place in pretty much just the right sequence and at the right times (so this is by no means a prediction, Caleb). But regardless of whether it proves to be a successful strategy, I do think it's the strategy Gutekunst is carrying in his back pocket for just the right moment.

 

[weeds]

From what I've observed (or think I've observed) in watching Gute work over the last few years, I think it's highly likely that's been part of his long term strategy for years, and he's been biding his time waiting for the right year. And I have a Gute feeling this may be the year he starts to play that card.

You have a "Gute" feeling, do you? Nice touch.

 

[Heyjoe4]

From what I've observed (or think I've observed) in watching Gute work over the last few years, I think it's highly likely that's been part of his long term strategy for years, and he's been biding his time waiting for the right year. And I have a Gute feeling this may be the year he starts to play that card.

There are always several teams who think they may be just That One Player short of a Lombardi... maybe a team that's doing a little better than expected, and thinks that it's worth roling the dice and making their move a year early; or a team that started the season with high hopes but fell a little short... maybe an injury at a key position, or a disappointing season from a player they had been counting on. Teams that will overvalue and overpay for one of the many promising youing talents on our team.

If Gute can keep scouting, drafting, and developing at this level, we may soon become the 1970s and 80s New York Yankees of the NFL - a feeder system for much of the league, pipelining promising young players in their 2nd or 3rd contract year into other team's rosters (instead of AAA minor league prospects) and usually coming away with the better end of the bargain.

Obviously there are a lot of moving parts to this scenario, and in order to play out like that a significant percentage of those moving parts would have to fall into place in pretty much just the right sequence and at the right times (so this is by no means a prediction, Caleb). But regardless of whether it proves to be a successful strategy, I do think it's the strategy Gutekunst is carrying in his back pocket for just the right moment.

Gluten has turned out to be a lot more savvy than I thought. He has a knack for finding talent and has done well in knowing when it's time to let players move on. And he has a keen eye for two to three seasons down the road. That's not easy in the "win now" NFL.

Now his teams have to start winning championships, and we all know how hard that is. Even so, the Pats and now the Chiefs have figured out how to win consistently across seasons - and with a constantly changing roster. I certainly hope you're right about Gluten. It would be great to put another few Lombardis at 1265.

 

[El Guapo]

Even so, the Pats and now the Chiefs have figured out how to win consistently across seasons

That's not a hard one to figure out - draft the best QB in the NFL. It's the execution part that a random GM lucks into every couple blue moons.

 

[Poppa San]

That's not a hard one to figure out - draft the best QB in the NFL. It's the execution part that a random GM lucks into every couple blue moons.

NE won with a top defense,, innovative coach, and very good game manager QB. At no point in his career did TB12 win a SB without a top 10 defense backing him up.

 

[OldSchool101]

Look at Gutekunst's successes in the 7th round so far:
- Jonathan Ford
- Rasheed Walker
- Carrington Valentine
- Anthony Johnson Jr
- Grant DuBose
- Kalen King

You've got a legit starter at LT in Walker, and a bunch of guys who are serious contenders at their positions. Our GM doesn't throw away picks at the end of the draft. He's out there on the 7th round beach with his metal detector looking for gold.

I look at it like this. If you have. Great scouting dept. that 7th is like an average teams selection in that top 175-200 overall area.

 

[Heyjoe4]

NE won with a top defense,, innovative coach, and very good game manager QB. At no point in his career did TB12 win a SB without a top 10 defense backing him up.

True enough. No doubt about Brady's greatness. I'm sure he had unique leadership skills as well. The stat on defense you cite is telling. A team needs a very good to great defense to win a SB.

 

[El Guapo]

Gluten has turned out to be a lot more savvy than I thought.

While he's better than you thought, I guess he hasn't earned your respect enough to use his actual name yet?

NE won with a top defense,, innovative coach, and very good game manager QB. At no point in his career did TB12 win a SB without a top 10 defense backing him up.

At no point in New England's run did they win a SB without TB12.

 

[Heyjoe4]

While he's better than you thought, I guess he hasn't earned your respect enough to use his actual name yet?

At no point in New England's run did they win a SB without TB12.

I don't think anyone on here uses his full last name. Most use Gutey. I use Gluten. I don't think it has anything to do with respect or a lack of it. I think very highly of him as the Packers's GM.

 

[Schultz]

Look at Gutekunst's successes in the 7th round so far:
- Jonathan Ford
- Rasheed Walker
- Carrington Valentine
- Anthony Johnson Jr
- Grant DuBose
- Kalen King

You've got a legit starter at LT in Walker, and a bunch of guys who are serious contenders at their positions. Our GM doesn't throw away picks at the end of the draft. He's out there on the 7th round beach with his metal detector looking for gold.

I think only 2 of these guys are currently on the 53. Did any of them get signed for the Pack practice squad?

 

[Poppa San]

I think only 2 of these guys are currently on the 53. Did any of them get signed for the Pack practice squad?

Ford IR-return designation
King PS
DuBose Miami 53 from waivers
AJ jr Giants 53 from waivers