Packers GM Brian Gutekunst

[Voyageur]

The Packers would convert from a contender to a team missing the playoffs in a heartbeat. Hope you're ready for that to happen as well.



Actually Rodgers' sack percentage of 4.5% of his dropbacks over the past two seasons is significantly below his career average of 6.6%.



My point wasn't that Love should have been performing at a Super Bowl level in year 1 but that the Packers drafting him didn't improve their chances of winning one in the short term.



Your numbers on the league touchdown percentage on pass plays are off as from 2015-21 4.0% of them have resulted in a TD.



Brady tried everything to lose the NFCCG, throwing three interceptions in the game. But like it happened for him most of his career the defense bailed him out.



Favre was still playing in 2007 when the Packers lost to the Giants 23-20 in overtime in the NFCCG. I agree with your main point that the Packers giving up an average of 35.8 points in those losses hugely contributed to the team not having made it to another Super Bowl.

Yes. Favre was the QB in the 23-20 loss. The rest were with Rodgers.

 

[El Guapo]

Just to name a few examples, in 2012 the Packers could have drafted Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins, in 2014 Derek Carr, in 2016 Dak Prescott and in 2018 Lamar Jackson but smartly didn't because they had a future HOF quarterback starting who was pretty adamant about wanting to play into his 40s.

They should have done the same in last year's draft instead of trading up for Love.

It's not the same and you know it. Rodgers was in his prime during the years that you cited above but then started to fall off in the seasons leading up to 2020. It's the same timeframe when the Packers drafted Rodgers, at the end of the previous HOF QB's career. Favre did go and have outstanding seasons in 2007 and 2009, but Rodgers was still the right choice despite Favre still having a little fuel left in the tank.

You are the guy back in 2006 still complaining that the Packers drafted Rodgers instead of xxxxx.

 

[red4tribe]

Whether drafting Love was a mistake will all come down to how he plays. If he becomes a franchise QB, it'll have been the right call. If he isn't, then it was a mistake. I don't view it as the right call or a mistake yet. It'll probably take a few years to figure that out.

There are a couple of big differences though between drafting Rodgers in 2005 and Love in 2020.

1. Rodgers was in the running for the #1 overall pick. Love was not. The fact that Rodgers fell all the way to #24 was shocking to many. He was too good to pass on. With Love, we traded up.

2. This is probably the most important point. Favre kept talking about retirement. No one in 2005 thought he was going to play another six years like he did. There was, I think, a pretty widely held feeling that Favre had maybe two years left, so it was imperative to get a QB to succeed him. Rodgers, on the other hand, never talked about retirement, and even stressed that he wanted to play into his 40s for the Packers.

 

[OldSchool101]

My point wasn't that Love should have been performing at a Super Bowl level in year 1 but that the Packers drafting him didn't improve their chances of winning one in the short term.

Ok that’s fine. But you want your cake and want to eat it also is what my point is.
You cannot be a GM in this league without proper balancing of short, mid and long term needs.
The end justifies the means. Gute has done an above average job acquiring talent. If you take away 1 acquisition (however good or bad that draft selection you think is) you set an entire chain of events into another direction. Id even argue across multiple drafts, because Gute looks across 2-3 seasons ahead for continuity. But yes, to us layman, we have zero idea what his full plan is, so it appears stupid

 

[OldSchool101]

Yes. Favre was the QB in the 23-20 loss. The rest were with Rodgers.

Good catch. I knew right away that was Giants at Lambeau. 2007? I’m so glad one of us ruined the perfect season.

The other aspect is that several of those close games were lost at primary fault of the ST or Defense.
ST + D is one prime example (2014)

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That doesn't mean that Rodgers isn't less mobile than he once was. His sack percentage dropped once Lafleur came in with an offensive scheme that put more emphasis on quick passes and scheming people open, as opposed to McCarthy's which tried to take longer chunks down the field. That's why he doesn't get sacked as much anymore, not his mobility. Rodgers rushing has also declined. The last two seasons are the only in his career where he has averaged single-digit YPG rushing.

I definitely agree that Rodgers isn't as mobile as early in his career. I just wanted to point out that despite him having lost some mobility he gets sacked less often.

It's not the same and you know it. Rodgers was in his prime during the years that you cited above but then started to fall off in the seasons leading up to 2020.

Rodgers had a better season in 2019 than in 2015 so why was it OK to trade up in the first round for Love last year but pass on Prescott, especially as a fourth rounder would have been enough to select him???

You cannot be a GM in this league without proper balancing of short, mid and long term needs.

You cannot be a GM in this league without proper balancing of short, mid and long term needs.

Agreed. But with Rodgers getting up there in age it would have been smarter to focus more on the short term success instead of drafting Love.

 

[OldSchool101]

I definitely agree that Rodgers isn't as mobile as early in his career. I just wanted to point out that despite him having lost some mobility he gets sacked less often.



Rodgers had a better season in 2019 than in 2015 so why was it OK to trade up in the first round for Love last year but pass on Prescott, especially as a fourth rounder would have been enough to select him???

You cannot be a GM in this league without proper balancing of short, mid and long term needs.




Agreed. But with Rodgers getting up there in age it would have been smarter to focus more on the short term success instead of drafting Love.

I somewhat agree. I believe that our FO thought Rodgers what I’d call a gradual decline.
I say that because if we go back and look at his year to year stats? it’s not a reach to make that “play declining”deduction.
Gute and Murphy made a mistake, but they did it with the information in front of them. I guess you could say they underestimated Aaron Rodgers resilience. I think that stepped on their pride a little and that’s a hard thing to admit they might’ve made a mistake. It happens.
I wrote a song called “No day Do-overs”
You may not have a day to do over.. but you got today to do (refrain)

All the FO can do is press forward. They’ve done a good job swallowing their pride and equipping this team with weapons (on a limited budget).

It’s Rodgers turn.. and I’m getting glimpses of him growing in humility. That’s a wonderful sign

 

[Voyageur]

I've always believed that the best QBs get smarter as they get older, and the things they can no longer do physically are replaced by the things that they do mentally, to maintain their competitive edge. I've seen it so often, with so many of them, that like most people, I've tended to just take it for granted.

The Aaron Rodgers of 2021/22 may not be as agile, have as much pop on the ball as he did 10 years ago, but the way he sees the game, and plays it, controlling it, has easily offset the reduced physicality he once had.

I'll take a smart, older QB, over one who is young and full of exuberance anytime. They just seem to exemplify what the whole thing is really all about.

I can't think of any QB in the league, outside of Rodgers, that I feel can win a game for us if we're getting the ball, down by 2 to 6, with one minute left, and no time outs. He can just plain flat out move the team down and get that score. In fact, I doubt too many people out here feel that when we're in that situation that the game is already over. With him, it could be another magical finish.

Just my opinion.

 

[gopkrs]

I've always believed that the best QBs get smarter as they get older, and the things they can no longer do physically are replaced by the things that they do mentally, to maintain their competitive edge. I've seen it so often, with so many of them, that like most people, I've tended to just take it for granted.

Did not seem to happen with Drew Breeze. And he was one of the best ever. I think you are talking about baseball pitchers. No throwing change ups in the NFL.

 

[tynimiller]

All I know is if someone better be for both or against both drafting Rodgers and Love - as the situations the franchises found themselves are about as close as someone can get truly. I have no problem admitting it isn't what I would have done, but can push that aside and understand it.

 

[OldSchool101]

I've always believed that the best QBs get smarter as they get older, and the things they can no longer do physically are replaced by the things that they do mentally, to maintain their competitive edge. I've seen it so often, with so many of them, that like most people, I've tended to just take it for granted.

The Aaron Rodgers of 2021/22 may not be as agile, have as much pop on the ball as he did 10 years ago, but the way he sees the game, and plays it, controlling it, has easily offset the reduced physicality he once had.

I'll take a smart, older QB, over one who is young and full of exuberance anytime. They just seem to exemplify what the whole thing is really all about.

I can't think of any QB in the league, outside of Rodgers, that I feel can win a game for us if we're getting the ball, down by 2 to 6, with one minute left, and no time outs. He can just plain flat out move the team down and get that score. In fact, I doubt too many people out here feel that when we're in that situation that the game is already over. With him, it could be another magical finish.

Just my opinion.

Good points. As much as I minimize Tom Brady because he’s truly had luxury of a high % of great Defenses? I will say one of Brady’s strengths is finishing games in comebacks in limited time, similar to Aaron. I’d put him in the same “excellent” category. You do not give Rodgers or Brady 60 seconds with a Timeout to win a game.

 

[AmishMafia]

Rodgers had a better season in 2019 than in 2015 so why was it OK to trade up in the first round for Love last year but pass on Prescott, especially as a fourth rounder would have been enough to select him???

But, you are forgetting, Wolf could have drafted Brady in the 6th round of 2000 and traded Favre. That would have been so much better. Why didn't Wolf do it?

So, what did we know?

1. Ron Wolf was an idiot
2. Ted Thompson was a genius (made up for Wolf's screw up)
3. Gute is a genius (also had to make up for Wolf)
4. Being a GM is easy if you redo previous drafts

 

[tynimiller]

4. Being a GM is easy if you redo previous drafts

AMEN....this is my least favorite aspect of some folks. They will literally relive a draft for ten years and complain every chance they get. For the record that isn't @captainWIMM and don't want people to think he is like that.

 

[Schultz]

Did not seem to happen with Drew Breeze. And he was one of the best ever. I think you are talking about baseball pitchers. No throwing change ups in the NFL.

I think Drew is an example of both. Ben is there now also. As their physical attributes declined they still had some good seasons by just plain experience and taking what the defense gave them and cutting down on mistakes. Then when their arm strength became severely limited they stayed a year or two too long as experience itself was not enough to overcome the loss of skill.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Gute and Murphy made a mistake, but they did it with the information in front of them. I guess you could say they underestimated Aaron Rodgers resilience. I think that stepped on their pride a little and that’s a hard thing to admit they might’ve made a mistake. It happens.

I think what actually happened in the 2020 draft is that Gutekunst was adamant about following Thompson's path in acquiring a successor for the team's HOF quarterback and ignored the situation the Packers were in at that point was completely different than in 2005.

All I know is if someone better be for both or against both drafting Rodgers and Love - as the situations the franchises found themselves are about as close as someone can get truly. I have no problem admitting it isn't what I would have done, but can push that aside and understand it.

The Packers found themselves in a rebuilding year in 2005 with a quarterback who had threatened to retire for several years. Last offseason, the team was coming off making it to the NFCCG with some pieces missing to be considered a legit contender with Rodgers mentioning on multiple occasions that he wants to play into his 40s.

While at first glance the situation was similar there's not a whole lot of truth to it.

But, you are forgetting, Wolf could have drafted Brady in the 6th round of 2000 and traded Favre. That would have been so much better. Why didn't Wolf do it?

I was responding to a poster suggesting the Packers didn't have any chance to select a franchise quarterback during Rodgers' tenure as the team's starter. I wasn't suggesting they should have drafted either of them but instead would have preferred for them to pass on Love as well.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers found themselves in a rebuilding year in 2005 with a quarterback who had threatened to retire for several years. Last offseason, the team was coming off making it to the NFCCG with some pieces missing to be considered a legit contender with Rodgers mentioning on multiple occasions that he wants to play into his 40s.

While at first glance the situation was similar there's not a whole lot of truth to it.

Disagree, you're never going to have identical scenarios in almost any discussion. It's freaking close IMO.

 

[swhitset]

Disagree, you're never going to have identical scenarios in almost any discussion. It's freaking close IMO.

I disagree wholeheartedly with that. I do not find it even remotely close. Every detail in those situations is different. Rodgers was predicted to go number 1 overall … then couldn’t come to pre draft contract terms with the 49ers. With every single draft pick in that draft the commentators were talking about Rodgers and expressing dis belief that he was still there. I don’t remember hearing the name Jordan Love at all during the draft until the Packers traded up and surprised EVERYONE and drafted him. The Packers had a big need at several positions … (not QB) and yet had just been to the NFCCG coming off of a 13-3 regular season record. In 2005 the Packers were not even really contenders in anyone but Packer Fans and John Madden‘s eyes. Favre was threatening to retire every year and Rodgers fell in their lap.

 

[tynimiller]

I disagree wholeheartedly with that. I do not find it even remotely close. Every detail in those situations is different. Rodgers was predicted to go number 1 overall … then couldn’t come to pre draft contract terms with the 49ers. With every single draft pick in that draft the commentators were talking about Rodgers and expressing dis belief that he was still there. I don’t remember hearing the name Jordan Love at all during the draft until the Packers traded up and surprised EVERYONE and drafted him. The Packers had a big need at several positions … (not QB) and yet had just been to the NFCCG coming off of a 13-3 regular season record. In 2005 the Packers were not even really contenders in anyone but Packer Fans and John Madden‘s eyes. Favre was threatening to retire every year and Rodgers fell in their lap.

You're comparing the players Rodgers and Love, I was comparing the organizational situations. I've never heard more than maybe one analyst that would argue Love was the prospect Rodgers was, many felt strongly he was a first rounder, but no one was a concensus Top 10 or so prospect.

 

[swhitset]

You're comparing the players Rodgers and Love, I was comparing the organizational situations. I've never heard more than maybe one analyst that would argue Love was the prospect Rodgers was.

read the entire post. I compared both. I see little to no similarity to the organizational situations. One had a QB threatening to retire and a team rebuilding. The other had a QB that had publicly said he wanted to play to 40 and a team that albeit needed a few players … had just been to the NFCCG.

 

[swhitset]

read the entire post. I compared both. I see little to no similarity to the organizational situations. One had a QB threatening to retire and a team rebuilding. The other had a QB that had publicly said he wanted to play to 40 and a team that albeit needed a few players … had just been to the NFCCG.

btw … It is possible to believe Gutenkunst has done and overall great job… and still believe that drafting Love was a massive mistake.

 

[tynimiller]

btw … It is possible to believe Gutenkunst has done and overall great job… and still believe that drafting Love was a massive mistake.

Actually I disagree. No one, for or against the pick itself can with credence declare it a mistake yet - only time can and will play that claim true or false. We can predict or think, but no one knows yet.

I wouldn't have done it personally.

 

[gopkrs]

Actually I disagree. No one, for or against the pick itself can with credence declare it a mistake yet - only time can and will play that claim true or false. We can predict or think, but no one knows yet.

I wouldn't have done it personally.

But they can pretend to know. The odds are with them. Even QBs taken really high don't have a great success rate. And certainly low hall of fame rate. I liked the pick. Thought it was in the best long term interest of The Pack. I still am not against it.

 

[Voyageur]

btw … It is possible to believe Gutenkunst has done and overall great job… and still believe that drafting Love was a massive mistake.

I think a person could safely say that outside of the decision to draft Love, Gutey has done a pretty good job with the draft, and leave it at that. That's kind of how I see it anyhow.

 

[Krabs]

Actually I disagree. No one, for or against the pick itself can with credence declare it a mistake yet - only time can and will play that claim true or false. We can predict or think, but no one knows yet.

I wouldn't have done it personally.

I think that people can think it was a mistake already. Even if he ends up working out 5-6 years down the road I think that it was a short term mistake. If they would have taken Queen it would have helped the defense immediately and they would have had a long term fix to their ILB issues.

 

[swhitset]

But they can pretend to know. The odds are with them. Even QBs taken really high don't have a great success rate.

And that is exactly why some of us believe it was a mistake. The Packers were in a hard push for a Superbowl…the team had a few glaring holes that needed to be filled. But instead chose to use their top draft pick (plus another lower pick) to draft what by your own admission was an extremely risky prospect that was not in a position that would help them achieve the ultimate goal. I’m all for drafting for the future… but that was not the time to do it.