official Jimmy Graham signed

[HardRightEdge]

This is a very fair deal.

This is a very risky deal. Together with the Wilkerson deal, we're in "win now" mode with the expectation these players can turn back the clock several years.

And even if they do, does anybody think this is a championship roster as currently constituted? I don't. If you're happy with 10 or 11 wins and getting bounced in the playoffs then you'll probably like this.

Let's say Rodgers' shoulder is sound. Then you can reasonably expect 7 years to build something. If it is not, then "win now" ain't gonna work anyway.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Much better than what some were fearing for sure.

It depends on your time frame. The 3 year / $30 mil was already known. What was not known is how it is distributed over the 3 years.

If you're in the "win now" camp you should like it. If you think it will take more than one year to build a championship roster, then you shouldn't.

 

[Mondio]

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It says quite clearly the only guaranteed money is the $11 million signing bonus. That's prorated over the term of the contract, $3.66 mil per year. The dead cap and saving you cite are for 2020, not 2019.

It also says quite clearly under salary "guaranteed". as well, which is what I was getting at. I quite clearly said that it said the only thing guaranteed was the signing bonus. Which doesn't jive with what they have in their chart. Hence the question. The 7.whatever million salary and the dead cap from the prorated signing bonus adds up to around 11 million. and that was for 2020, 2019 has it pretty much flipped. 7+ for cap proration and 3+ for salary (guaranteed), which apparently it's not, though their chart says it is.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What I like about the deal is that it gives the Packers a reasonable out after one or two years. Reminds me a bit of the contract they signed Julius Peppers to.

Only way this really stings is if Graham pulls a Mo Bennett, but I don't expect that from JG.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

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It also says quite clearly under salary "guaranteed". as well, which is what I was getting at.

Over the Cap puts any part of the base salary guaranteed in a second row below the basic number. Just take a look at Cousins for example:

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[Mondio]

Over the Cap puts any part of the base salary guaranteed in a second row below the basic number. Just take a look at Cousins for example:

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ahh, got it.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And even if they do, does anybody think this is a championship roster as currently constituted? I don't. If you're happy with 10 or 11 wins an getting bounced in the playoffs then you'll probably like this.

The Packers definitely need to upgrade at edge rusher and cornerback for this roster to be considered championship caliber. Maybe Gutekunst will be able to pull off some moves to achieve that this offseason.

 

[Dantés]

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It also says quite clearly under salary "guaranteed". as well, which is what I was getting at. I quite clearly said that it said the only thing guaranteed was the signing bonus. Which doesn't jive with what they have in their chart. Hence the question. The 7.whatever million salary and the dead cap from the prorated signing bonus adds up to around 11 million. and that was for 2020, 2019 has it pretty much flipped. 7+ for cap proration and 3+ for salary (guaranteed), which apparently it's not, though their chart says it is.

I love it so much that you have your "How to take a screenshot" tab open still.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Wilkerson signed a one-year, prove-it deal. That's not the case with Graham though as the Packers would pay him $13 million for a single season if they decide to release him before the start of the 2019 league year. In addition the team would take a cap hit of $7.3 million in dead money at that point.

I give you a qualified agree. I see Wilkerson as more of a "rent-a-player" situation. If he doesn't "prove it", he's gone. If he does, then what? You're shelling out some unlikely to be earned cap at the conclusion of the season. Then what? A 3 year, $30 mil deal like Graham? At 30 years old? With Clark in his contract year? That sets you up for an overallocation to the DT positon come 2020.

Here's the thing. One can find instances of core non-QBs having very productive years after age 30. One thing about those guys: they show consistent high performance throughout their careers up to that point. I wouldn't pay Wilkerson that kind of money no matter what he does.

 

[Mondio]

Well I've had an iMac for 12 years now and shift command4 to cut my shot from a screen doesn't work well from the PC I'm on at work.

 

[Dantés]

Well I've had an iMac for 12 years now and shift command4 to cut my shot from a screen doesn't work well from the PC I'm on at work.

I would have had to look it up too.

 

[GleefulGary]

So we got Graham, who I think can exceed the production of Jordy + plays a position of need for us, and Wilkerson for $200k more than the cost of Jordy?

That's fantastic. I'm a fan.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Packers definitely need to upgrade at edge rusher and cornerback for this roster to be considered championship caliber. Maybe Gutekunst will be able to pull off some moves to achieve that this offseason.

Those are the defensive positions that cost big bucks to acquire quality players, nearly all of whom are snapped up. If there are any cap/going younger casualties available after the draft, maybe then.

Either now or then, he'd have to cut somebody of consequence to pick up the cap space by the time the rookies are signed and the 53 man, PS and PUP/IR reserve is set: Matthews or Cobb which then leaves no depth or a hole; maybe squeeze somebody in with $4.7 mil from cutting Bulaga. I suppose they could cut Matthews to free space for a 4-3 edge guy if Petine's plan is to play a lot of 4-3 hybrid. Paying him this kind of money to play ILB or OLB in that scheme is a waste. You'd think if that was the plan, Matthews would be gone by now.

 

[brandon2348]

I give you a qualified agree. I see Wilkerson as more of a "rent-a-player" situation. If he doesn't "prove it", he's gone. If he does, then what? You're shelling out some unlikely to be earned cap at the conclusion of the season. Then what? A 3 year, $30 mil deal like Graham? At 30 years old? With Clark in his contract year? That sets you up for an overallocation to the DT positon come 2020.

Its a "year to year league". No telling what will happen next year and who will develop nicely and who will regress. I like what the Packers are doing as whats the alternative? Saving up for when Rodgers is 36? There is just no guarantees in that. Gotta go for it now and every year coming up.

Yes there are holes on the roster but the Packers are still 20 mill minus rookies under the cap and have 12 draft picks. Plenty of time and firepower to address current roster needs. At least we finally have someone willing to do it calling the shots.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So we got Graham, who I think can exceed the production of Jordy + plays a position of need for us, and Wilkerson for $200k more than the cost of Jordy?

That's fantastic. I'm a fan.

You have to consider Graham's cap hit will increase significantly for the 2019 season or the dead money the Packers will inherit if they decide to release him.

Those are the defensive positions that cost big bucks to acquire quality players, nearly all of whom are snapped up. If there are any cap/going younger casualties available after the draft, maybe then.

In my opinion the draft is the only way to improve at edge rusher. There are some decent free agents still available at cornerback or possibly via trade though.

With the Packers currently approximately $18 million under the cap Gutekunst could sign a defensive back without having to make a corresponding move.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Its a "year to year league". No telling what will happen next year and who will develop nicely and who will regress. I like what the Packers are doing as whats the alternative? Saving up for when Rodgers is 36? There is just no guarantees in that. Gotta go for it now and every year coming up.

Yes there are holes in the roster but the Packers are still 20 mill minus rookies under the cap and have 12 draft picks. Plenty of time and fire power to address current roster needs. At least we finally have someone willing to do it calling the shots.

It's a year-to-year league for those teams at or on the cusp of championship caliber or where the GM and coach are on the bubble.

It's a multi-year plan for teams that are not at that point. I see the Packers as having aged in place, and Graham and Wilkerson are not helping matters any. There is not enough production out of cheap rookie deals on the books.

Yeah, I would have "saved up" for when Rodgers at age 36. A couple of very good drafts might make it 35 before he's extened or franchised. I would have cut bait with Cobb, Matthews and perhaps even Bulaga if the medicals are not rosy, as was done with Nelson, take that total $35 mil cap savings and then go out and get a second contract CB and WR and get a lot younger. Then bank on the draft (which has to be done anyway) to fill in the other holes by having this year's guys in year 2 in 2019.

If Guttekunst's drafts are as minimally productive as Thompson in recent years you're not going anywhere. So however you slice it, FA's nor not, he's going to have to draft well and fast.

 

[brandon2348]

It's a year-to-year league for those teams at or on the cusp of championship caliber or where the GM and coach are on the bubble.

It's a multi-year plan for teams that are not at that point. I see the Packers as having aged in place, and Graham and Wilkerson are not helping matters any. There is not enough production out of cheap rookie deals on the books.

Yeah, I would have "saved up" for when Rodgers at age 36. A couple of very good drafts might make it 35 before he's extened or franchised. I would have cut bait with Cobb, Matthews and perhaps even Bulaga if the medicals are not rosy, as was done with Nelson, take that total $35 mil cap savings and then go out and get a second contract CB and WR and get a lot younger. Then bank on the draft (which has to be done anyway) to fill in the other holes by having this year's guys in year 2 in 2019.

If Guttekunst's drafts are as minimally productive as Thompson in recent years you're not going anywhere. So however you slice it, FA's nor not, he's going to have to draft well and fast.

Some would say MM is on the bubble with only getting extended a year. Time will tell on Wilkerson and Graham(which I like both signings) but we needed to get some top end talented vets and that's the hope here.

As far as the draft everyone in the league is needing a good draft now more then ever. Success in this league is dependent on drafted players producing in year one and two now. Look no further then the Saints last year and there success. We have 12 swings at it so thats a positive.

Also, as far as Vegas is concerned were one of the Super Bowl favs. I know thats not everything but were far from falling off the map. We have a competent GM now and if Pettine is even 50 percent better then Capers well be good.

 

[HardRightEdge]

With the Packers currently approximately $18 million under the cap Gutekunst could sign a defensive back without having to make a corresponding move.

It's actually about $19 mil with $4.7 mil going to Wilkerson according to the terms Demovsky just reported on ESPN. Subtract $3 million for the upper round draft pickes replacing minimum salary guys, $1 mil to fill out the 53 man roster, 1 million for the PS, and I would keep $4 mil in reserve for PUP/IR replacements. That's $11 mil to work with. In "win now" mode, the $4 mil may be light if you have to go out and buy an Evans or a Brooks to replace a starter(s) on IR or PUP before opening day.

You might get a decent CB in a backloaded deal.

Here's the thing: If you don't win this year, you've expended $40 mil in cap this year on Matthews, Cobb, Graham, Wilkerson and Bulaga, with additional large dead cap with Graham in the following year, and then the cap picture looks pretty bad for 2019 when you look at the $ and the 2019 free agents,

In my view, the odds of "win now" are poor; the odds in targeting 2019 would be better.

While the Randall move was quite anti-Thompson who kept his high picks to the bitter end, the FA signings are a doubling down on the uncharistic Thompson FA singings last year to get over the hump.

Thompson was kicked upstairs to "scout emertus" for failing in that attempt. It's a little ******.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Some would say MM is on the bubble with only getting extended a year.

He had a year added taking him through 2019. I thought this was an indication of a two year plan to straighten things out, which I endorse. I guess not.

 

[HardRightEdge]

As far as the draft everyone in the league is needing a good draft now more then ever.

This is the 8th. year of the rookie salary schedule implemented with the 2011 CBA. It's nothing new. And it's not one good draft, it's the aggreate quality of the previous 4 drafts where you have all of those guys on cheap rookie deals.

And yet, this has been the biggest trading off-season in recent memory. Why? I think it's because of a couple of factors. One is relative parity, with the only team that looked dominent last year being Philly before Wentz went down and they won anyway. You've also got some teams going the Seattle route from a few years ago: the emerging QB and some other core players are cheap and they use the cap to make a run at it with some vet acquisitions.

I just don't believe the Packers are good enough with enough cheap core players and cap space to go that route, but they're trying it anyway.

 

[HardRightEdge]

ahh, got it.

There you go.

 

[brandon2348]

This is the 8th. year of the rookie salary schedule implemented with the 2011 CBA. It's nothing new. And it's not one good draft, it's the aggreate quality of the previous 4 drafts where you have all of those guys on cheap rookie deals.

And yet, this has been the biggest trading off-season in recent memory. Why? I think it's because of a couple of factors. One is relative parity, with the only team that looked dominent last year being Philly before Wentz went down and they won anyway. You've also got some teams going the Seattle route from a few years ago: the emerging QB and some other core players are cheap and they use the cap to make a run at it with some vet acquisitions.

I just don't believe the Packers are good enough with enough cheap core players and cap space to go that route, but they're trying it anyway.

Yes, parity is at an all time high but the Packers are getting ready to pay Aaron Rodgers 30 million a year so what other choice do they have? It forces them to try and find Value in a M. Wilkerson(which I believe is great value) pick up and a splash move at TE. When we start selling out like the Seahawks last year and trading future draft capital for a one year window then I will be concerned.

Thompson isn't calling the shots on draft day anymore which IMO is cause for optimism. Lets see what Gute can do.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Here's the thing: If you don't win this year, you've expended $40 mil in cap this year on Matthews, Cobb, Graham, Wilkerson and Bulaga, with additional large dead cap with Graham in the following year, and then the cap picture looks pretty bad for 2019 when you look at the $ and the 2019 free agents.

I haven't done a detailed analysis on the Packers cap outlook for 2019 but they seem to be in a better situation than this year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I haven't done a detailed analysis on the Packers cap outlook for 2019 but they seem to be in a better situation than this year.

Well. if you look at the cap space and the list of FAs, it doesn't look very good. I posted both somewhere up the line here.

 

[GleefulGary]

If you cut Matthews who do you replace him with?

Same with Bulaga?