Official 2023 season opener pregame thread: @Chicago Bears

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think our D will be quite a bit better this year. Unless Barry calls too many conservative plays. Looking forward to watching Devonte Wyatt. He is a big piece of the puzzle and if he plays well; we will do much better against the run.

This is where I am at too.

The Packers have the horses on the front 7 of the defense, as well as ok depth behind the starting 7. The secondary is really the only question mark for me. If the front 7 play up to their potential, that puts a lot less pressure on the 4 guys in the secondary. Barry needs to use this to help the secondary, by mixing up his front end guys and taking some chances by bringing the house on occasion. Like most here, I am sick of seeing a defense with quite a bit of talent, playing on their heels and not on their toes.

 

[Voyageur]

If someone says they need to score 30 points a game, this means you average 30 points a game - no? I'm genuinely not trying to be difficult, but this whole thing just seems crazy confusing if that isn't what it means.

Either way past five seasons ppg given up and scored by us for anyone curious

2022 - gave up 21.8 / scored 21.7
2021 - gave up 21.8 / scored 26.5
2020 - gave up 23.1 / scored 31.8
2019 - gave up 19.6 / scored 23.5
2018 - gave up 25 / scored 23.5

Let's see if rephrasing it will make sense for you. The Packers offense is a work in progress. They won't be able to control the ball as much as they should against good defenses.

Because they can't control the ball, the opponent will get more opportunities, and more time to score.

Based on the performance of our defense over the last few years, that could mean a lot of points scored against us. Even if they've improved, because of what will be a weakness in our offense, the defense will have to perform better just to stay even with what they were over the last few years. Those teams gave up about 30 or more points in nearly every game we lost (26 points on up).

The point is, to be competitive we have to outscore the opposition in games. If you beat a weak team 35-10, and lose to two average teams 31-27, and 31-28, you may have averaged about 34 points a game, and given up about 26 a game. That amounts to scoring 90 points in 3 games for an average of 30 PPG, and the opponent has scored 72, for an average of 24 points a game. You got beat because you couldn't put 30 points or more on the board. Had you made one more winning drive to score, there's a good chance you would have taken 3 to 7 points off the board for the opposition and you could win those two games.

Look at the last 4 years, and you can see that when we lose, we give up a lot of points. That is not consistency.

I'm not going to go any further in this discussion. It just isn't worth the effort to be honest. We will just have to agree. If your problem is semantics, please, have all the fun you want with it. I just don't give a rat's *** to be honest.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Taking averages, across 17 games and then trying to come up with a formula "to win" is flawed. I realized this when I was putting together the Packers last 10 years of playoff games. That said, you will probably win more games than you lose, if you score 30 points in any particular game. Just like if your defense can hold the other team to under 20 points, your chances of winning go up.

I don't see this offense scoring over 25 points all that often, which is why I don't think they are going to win more than 5-6 games.

 

[Voyageur]

Taking averages, across 17 games and then trying to come up with a formula "to win" is flawed. I realized this when I was putting together the Packers last 10 years of playoff games. That said, you will probably win more games than you lose, if you score 30 points in any particular game. Just like if your defense can hold the other team to under 20 points, your chances of winning go up.

I don't see this offense scoring over 25 points all that often, which is why I don't think they are going to win more than 5-6 games.

I estimated about 7 wins. But it could be less, that's for sure. It could also be a couple higher, but I doubt it.

I don't think there's a formula to win either. Just score as much as you can. Then do your best to stop the other team from scoring as much.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I never bet on NFL games, but if I was to bet 1 game this week, it would have to be to take the Chiefs and give up the 5.5 points that they are now favored to win by. Yeah, they might be without both Kelce and Jones, but come on, at home, against the Lions?

 

[milani]

27 is in the 30 point range. Look at the 3 previous years. Here's the scores put up in all those losses.

2021 - 38, 13, 34, 37, 13
2020 - 38, 28, 34, 31
2019 - 34, 26, 37, 37

Three consecutive seasons lost in the playoffs. Two because teams put up over 30 points in each of the games.

I'm not going to argue with you on this. Let's see how the season plays out.

Those last 2 37s were to SF.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Those last 2 37s were to SF.

Yup and 2 of the losses in 2020 were to Tampa Bay, the 2nd being in the NFCCG as well. The 2 teams that were the Packers Achilles heels in a season.

10/18/2020: Bucs: 38 Packers:10
1/24/21: Bucs: 31 Packers: 26

Now in the 2021 Season, the Packers also played San Fran twice. However, they caught the 49'ers with a bunch of key injuries in the first game and squeaked out a 30-28 win. In the Divisional round, played at Lambeau, both defenses played really well and the 9'ers squeaked out a 13-10 win.

 

[gopkrs]

Neither Watson nor Doubs are practicing.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Neither Watson nor Doubs are practicing.

If neither of them can go, that would mean Love starts his career as a starter with Jayden Reed, Malik Heath and Samori Toure at WR and Luke Musgrave at TE.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think our D will be quite a bit better this year. Unless Barry calls too many conservative plays. Looking forward to watching Devonte Wyatt. He is a big piece of the puzzle and if he plays well; we will do much better against the run.

yeah I’m guessing similar.
I see our starting DL as a “very slight” upgrade over Lowry- Reed etc. I see our DL rotation (depth) “moderately” improved.
I think we also keyed on Run stop this draft.
Speaking of which, Karl Brooks was underestimated based on Conference imo. He had the 3rd most interior pressures in the entire FBS. He’s not fast but he finds ways to make up for that in burst and IQ. I think we hit the jackpot there in Rd6

Cox is pretty good at everything he just needs refinement on his assignment. He’s got a little loose cannon in his play early on, but If that aggressive temperament can be harnessed he’s a great depth piece.

Even the depth at CB is looking up. This Valentine kid was an absolute steal and he’s all over the place effective. I was almost as impressed with his nose to switch gears into run support on an absolute dime. He must’ve had a really good coach because he’s acutely aware of where that ball is at all times.

We had a really good draft when we are seeing early returns at multiple positions and they are 6th Round- UDFA guys.

 

[milani]

If neither of them can go, that would mean Love starts his career as a starter with Jayden Reed, Malik Heath and Samori Toure at WR and Luke Musgrave at TE.

Do we just smile and say Oh Well.

 

[tynimiller]

SOB.....Doubs and Watson both on injury report and did not practice today. MLF said today he will give those two and Bakh until gametime for decision.

Not gonna lie, if we do a whole season of this with Bakh again I am unsure I can continue to like him being here...

 

[OldSchool101]

SOB.....Doubs and Watson both on injury report and did not practice today. MLF said today he will give those two and Bakh until gametime for decision.

Not gonna lie, if we do a whole season of this with Bakh again I am unsure I can continue to like him being here...

I think we’ll see 2 of those 3 suit up. This seems to be a game of cat n mouse used for purposes of confusion for our opposition. Matt has always been about deception on Offense. Get your opponent on an emotional rollercoaster ride

 

[milani]

SOB.....Doubs and Watson both on injury report and did not practice today. MLF said today he will give those two and Bakh until gametime for decision.

Not gonna lie, if we do a whole season of this with Bakh again I am unsure I can continue to like him being here...

I believe Bahk will play but they are treating him as if one turn of the wheel would end his career. He is now in that old man category in which you rest him all week and play him on Sunday. Doubs and Watson are precautionary. .

 

[Voyageur]

I think we’ll see 2 of those 3 suit up. This seems to be a game of cat n mouse used for purposes of confusion for our opposition. Matt has always been about deception on Offense. Get your opponent on an emotional rollercoaster ride

I agree. I think he held Watson out on a precautionary basis. Doubs? It might be a little more concerning since he's been out with a hammie for a while. Bakh? He's probably going to be on that list most of the year the way it looks. He's not going to practice too much.

That 2 out of 3 is probably correct. Doubs is the one I question being ready.

 

[milani]

I agree. I think he held Watson out on a precautionary basis. Doubs? It might be a little more concerning since he's been out with a hammie for a while. Bakh? He's probably going to be on that list most of the year the way it looks. He's not going to practice too much.

That 2 out of 3 is probably correct. Doubs is the one I question being ready.

Wasn't Doubs out with hamstring part of last year also?

 

[OldSchool101]

If I had to choose, I’d almost want Watson out there between those two injured WR
I think #9 has already proven he’s a big play waiting to happen. That said it’s very possible that’s Doubs will become the All Around better Receiver.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think we’ll see 2 of those 3 suit up. This seems to be a game of cat n mouse used for purposes of confusion for our opposition. Matt has always been about deception on Offense. Get your opponent on an emotional rollercoaster ride

Then....he should be saying that AJ and Love are also questionable.

 

[OldSchool101]

Then....he should be saying that AJ and Love are also questionable.

Wonderful idea! Poker you never fail me

Although… that might be too obvious. We might want to stick to WR’s and grin n Bear it

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wonderful idea! Poker you never fail me

Although… that might be too obvious. These Bears might catch on

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[Voyageur]

Wasn't Doubs out with hamstring part of last year also?

Last year's injury was a high ankle sprain. I had to check. Couldn't remember. But, these are two pretty serious problems to have happen. They may be using caution, and maybe not. We'll know Sunday.

 

[OldSchool101]

That’s going to be Rashan helping Fields back into Hi-Bear-nation

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[Voyageur]

By-the-by. Both Watson and Doubs are suffering from hammy injuries.

 

[tynimiller]

Last year's injury was a high ankle sprain. I had to check. Couldn't remember. But, these are two pretty serious problems to have happen. They may be using caution, and maybe not. We'll know Sunday.

Doubs was quoted saying he feels good, fingers crossed it is all precautionary.

 

[JK64]

Neither Watson nor Doubs are practicing.

I saw this. ******** ****!! I'm so tired of this ****. the ******* can't even get through practice without pulling a hamstring. WTF? Packers' trainers get a big fail here.