Official 2023 season opener pregame thread: @Chicago Bears

[tynimiller]

You can score 24 points a game as long as your defense holds the opposition to under that figure. The fact is, with the inexperience of Love and his receivers, coupled with what appears a lack of defensive depth, and the Packer defense will spend a lot of time on the field. Time equals fatigue, and fatigue equals mistakes. The end result is points on the board for the opposition.

I repeat. If the Packers want to win (this means consistently not just on a singular game basis), they need to score 30 points a game.

So the defense is going to be nearly ten points per game worse than they were last year???

 

[Voyageur]

So the defense is going to be nearly ten points per game worse than they were last year???

I think you missed my point. One of the keys to winning games is time of possession. When you have the ball, you can score. You need to control the ball, and I don't think this young Packer team is going to dominate that stat.

But, people can believe what they want. I'm just giving my opinion based on my own experience.

 

[milani]

How's their offensive line? How well does the rpo work with a lousy o-line and a QB that has fumbleitis?

It should have some hiccups. But the Bear line in the past several years still allowed Fields to do his thing along with a guy named Montgomery. Especially against us. There were other reasons we beat them.

 

[tynimiller]

I think you missed my point. One of the keys to winning games is time of possession. When you have the ball, you can score. You need to control the ball, and I don't think this young Packer team is going to dominate that stat.

But, people can believe what they want. I'm just giving my opinion based on my own experience.

What do you mean? If you believe GB needs to score thirty a game in order to win, that would mean precisely what I said no?

 

[OldSchool101]

My best guess is our D will hover around 20.0 points per game average. Anything under that, such as in the teens, would be a big improvement. At 19.0 per game allowed I think we could stay over .500 this season.

A good goal for our Offense in its relative infancy would be 22-23.0 points per game scored. Our Offense at 24 points per game we’d be at or over over .500 Win/Loss. At 26 points per game scored most teams would be talking playoffs.

Only 3 teams have scored 30+ per game since 2020 (across 3 seasons)
2020 Tampa
2020 GB and
2021 Dallas

 

[Firethorn1001]

I repeat. If the Packers want to win (this means consistently not just on a singular game basis), they need to score 30 points a game.

They should make it 40.

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[milani]

What do you mean? If you believe GB needs to score thirty a game in order to win, that would mean precisely what I said no?

It appears we may have a team that scores over 30 points a game but cannot control the football possession. So then our game scores will be like 38-35. Sounds like the old AFL football. I like it.

 

[Schultz]

You can score 24 points a game as long as your defense holds the opposition to under that figure. The fact is, with the inexperience of Love and his receivers, coupled with what appears a lack of defensive depth, and the Packer defense will spend a lot of time on the field. Time equals fatigue, and fatigue equals mistakes. The end result is points on the board for the opposition.

I repeat. If the Packers want to win (this means consistently not just on a singular game basis), they need to score 30 points a game.

You can maybe sell me on the Packers will need to score 30 pts. to have a chance to win. They are in no way, shape or form going to average 30 pts. a game. That is completely unrealistic. IMO.

 

[tynimiller]

You can maybe sell me on the Packers will need to score 30 pts. to have a chance to win. They are in no way, shape or form going to average 30 pts. a game. That is completely unrealistic. IMO.

It's only happened like thirteen times since 2010 across the entire league. If we average that much, shoot if we average 26+ we are winning the North.

 

[Voyageur]

You can maybe sell me on the Packers will need to score 30 pts. to have a chance to win. They are in no way, shape or form going to average 30 pts. a game. That is completely unrealistic. IMO.

Look back at the last 4 seasons. You'll find our losses have been mostly at the hands of scores where the opposition scored near, or over 30 points. Even last year, with our 9 losses, 5 of them were when the opposition scored 27 or more. Add those 5 losses to the win column, and instead of being 8-9, we're suddenly 13-4, and have a shot at going deep into the playoffs.

Even if the defense is a little better this year, than it has been over recent years, they're going to have to be better to hold their own. Reason? Our offense isn't going to be as effective sustaining drives under Love, as it was with Rodgers, simply because Love is still learning how to control games. It could happen, but it takes time.

In the meantime, because they'll spend more time on the field, our defense is going to be gassed. We do not have the depth out there to keep them fresh. When teams tire, they give up points. It's a waterfall effect.

But, like I said, people have to believe what they want to believe. That said, until they prove me wrong, I won't change my mind, unless someone can present an opposite view that can be supported by facts, not just conjecture. My opinion is based on analysis of stats, and past actions.

 

[tynimiller]

Look back at the last 4 seasons. You'll find our losses have been mostly at the hands of scores where the opposition scored near, or over 30 points. Even last year, with our 9 losses, 5 of them were when the opposition scored 27 or more. Add those 5 losses to the win column, and instead of being 8-9, we're suddenly 13-4, and have a shot at going deep into the playoffs.

Even if the defense is a little better this year, than it has been over recent years, they're going to have to be better to hold their own. Reason? Our offense isn't going to be as effective sustaining drives under Love, as it was with Rodgers, simply because Love is still learning how to control games. It could happen, but it takes time.

In the meantime, because they'll spend more time on the field, our defense is going to be gassed. We do not have the depth out there to keep them fresh. When teams tire, they give up points. It's a waterfall effect.

But, like I said, people have to believe what they want to believe. That said, until they prove me wrong, I won't change my mind, unless someone can present an opposite view that can be supported by facts, not just conjecture. My opinion is based on analysis of stats, and past actions.

As was my comment for your thoughts on this means the defense is going to be nearly ten points per game worse this year....and yet you deflected it as if not also stats and facts. FTR this is coming from a guy that believes we are more likely to win 7 than 9 so this isn't someone naively believing this team is going to be amazing.

 

[Voyageur]

By the way. What I'm stating doesn't indicate you need to "average" 30 points a game. I'm stating we have to score 30 to win most of our games. Check the scores of our opponents in games we've lost over the last few years. You might be surprised.

 

[Voyageur]

As was my comment for your thoughts on this means the defense is going to be nearly ten points per game worse this year....and yet you deflected it as if not also stats and facts. FTR this is coming from a guy that believes we are more likely to win 7 than 9 so this isn't someone naively believing this team is going to be amazing.

I think you need to revisit what I said here. I'm not going to argue with you about whether or not you believe I hurt your feelings. Nowhere did I indicate I thought you were naive, nor did I intend doing so. If that's what you got from what I said, that's on you, not me.

You can't go by average scores. You have to go by actual scores on a game by game basis. If you give up 10 points in one game, and 13 in another, and give up 31 in the next three and lose them, you're only giving up 23 points per game, and getting your rear end handed to you in the W-L column. That's what you need to look at.

EDIT: Also, let's assume we score 30 points in each of those 5 games. You'd be averaging 30 points a game and still have the losing record. It's all about the individual game scores/results. This is the one area where averages fail to tell the whole story.

 

[tynimiller]

By the way. What I'm stating doesn't indicate you need to "average" 30 points a game. I'm stating we have to score 30 to win most of our games. Check the scores of our opponents in games we've lost over the last few years. You might be surprised.

Not shocked really, most of the time if a game gets away from a team it gets to that point. It is quite common...BUT last year our losses were to teams that scored:

23, 27, 27, 23, 27, 15, 27, 40 and 20

Only one loss came at the hands of a team that put up 30 or more.

 

[Voyageur]

Not shocked really, most of the time if a game gets away from a team it gets to that point. It is quite common...BUT last year our losses were to teams that scored:

23, 27, 27, 23, 27, 15, 27, 40 and 20

Only one loss came at the hands of a team that put up 30 or more.

27 is in the 30 point range. Look at the 3 previous years. Here's the scores put up in all those losses.

2021 - 38, 13, 34, 37, 13
2020 - 38, 28, 34, 31
2019 - 34, 26, 37, 37

Three consecutive seasons lost in the playoffs. Two because teams put up over 30 points in each of the games.

I'm not going to argue with you on this. Let's see how the season plays out.

 

[tynimiller]

27 is in the 30 point range. Look at the 3 previous years. Here's the scores put up in all those losses.

2021 - 38, 13, 34, 37, 13
2020 - 38, 28, 34, 31
2019 - 34, 26, 37, 37

Three consecutive seasons lost in the playoffs. Two because teams put up over 30 points in each of the games.

I'm not going to argue with you on this. Let's see how the season plays out.

No argument at least from my thought process on it. Also was just sharing the loss scores.

It's quite common to have such things happen, I mean look at the Eagles all but one of their losses last year were when they gave up over 30

 

[Schultz]

Look back at the last 4 seasons. You'll find our losses have been mostly at the hands of scores where the opposition scored near, or over 30 points. Even last year, with our 9 losses, 5 of them were when the opposition scored 27 or more. Add those 5 losses to the win column, and instead of being 8-9, we're suddenly 13-4, and have a shot at going deep into the playoffs.

Even if the defense is a little better this year, than it has been over recent years, they're going to have to be better to hold their own. Reason? Our offense isn't going to be as effective sustaining drives under Love, as it was with Rodgers, simply because Love is still learning how to control games. It could happen, but it takes time.

In the meantime, because they'll spend more time on the field, our defense is going to be gassed. We do not have the depth out there to keep them fresh. When teams tire, they give up points. It's a waterfall effect.

But, like I said, people have to believe what they want to believe. That said, until they prove me wrong, I won't change my mind, unless someone can present an opposite view that can be supported by facts, not just conjecture. My opinion is based on analysis of stats, and past actions.

Let me see if I have your facts straight. Since our offense is not going to be very good and our defense is going to be on the field a lot our not very good offense is going to have to score 30 pts. to win.

 

[Schultz]

By the way. What I'm stating doesn't indicate you need to "average" 30 points a game. I'm stating we have to score 30 to win most of our games. Check the scores of our opponents in games we've lost over the last few years. You might be surprised.

You did not originally state it this way. As a matter of fact that is basically how I stated it in my original reply to you.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I didn't follow much of anything that the Bears did in the preseason. Based on looking at their preseason Stats, Fields didn't play very much, but when he did, he had big yards on passing (5-9 for 180 yds.). That is 36 yards per completion! Must have been mostly homerun balls? The Packers defense needs to not give up big plays, whether they are through the air or with Fields feet, that could kill them.

Anyway, unlike previous preseasons, the Packers played a lot of their starters, including their QB for quite a bit. I think we are going to see the effect of that in Game 1. Which in my opinion gives the upper hand to the Packers. The Bears starters are going to look rusty and out of sync, the Packer starters (on offense) are going to be green, but I think better than what you would expect for an opening game. The Packer defense is full of talent and experience, I think we see an improved bunch right out of the gate.

Packers 31 Bears 17

 

[tynimiller]

I didn't follow much of anything that the Bears did in the preseason. Based on looking at their preseason Stats, Fields didn't play very much, but when he did, he had big yards on passing (5-9 for 180 yds.). That is 36 yards per completion! Must have been mostly homerun balls? The Packers defense needs to not give up big plays, whether they are through the air or with Fields feet, that could kill them.

Anyway, unlike previous preseasons, the Packers played a lot of their starters, including their QB for quite a bit. I think we are going to see the effect of that in Game 1. Which in my opinion gives the upper hand to the Packers. The Bears starters are going to look rusty and out of sync, the Packer starters (on offense) are going to be green, but I think better than what you would expect for an opening game. The Packer defense is full of talent and experience, I think we see an improved bunch right out of the gate.

Packers 31 Bears 17

Fields threw bubble screens that broke for long gains or TDs. I believe his longest completion was still sub 10 yards in the air.

 

[gopkrs]

I hope our default is to cover close. Like somebody mentioned...no more 3rd and 12 and dropping 14 yards. I really hope if Barry is playing not to lose; we let him go early.

 

[Voyageur]

You did not originally state it this way. As a matter of fact that is basically how I stated it in my original reply to you.

Yes. We will have to score 30 or more to beat good teams. Our defense is not good enough alone to stop teams, and our offense isn't strong enough to dominate games with long drives that suck up the clock, and end in scores. If you want to continue believing that the intent of what I said was that we had to score over 510 points during the regular season to win any games, that's your prerogative. We can win some lower scoring games against weaker teams, but solid teams are going to run up the score in most cases, especially if they have strong defenses who can get the ball back quickly for their offense.

We couldn't do it with Rodgers during two straight MVP seasons, why would I even believe for a heartbeat that Love is going to come in, be the savior on offense, and the defense has suddenly become a dominating force?

I don't believe that hype for a moment. It's going to take time before we even know if Love is a quality NFL QB.

 

[PikeBadger]

My best guess is our D will hover around 20.0 points per game average. Anything under that, such as in the teens, would be a big improvement. At 19.0 per game allowed I think we could stay over .500 this season.

A good goal for our Offense in its relative infancy would be 22-23.0 points per game scored. Our Offense at 24 points per game we’d be at or over over .500 Win/Loss. At 26 points per game scored most teams would be talking playoffs.

Only 3 teams have scored 30+ per game since 2020 (across 3 seasons)
2020 Tampa
2020 GB and
2021 Dallas

If we average 24/ppg and give up 19/ppg we"ll definitely be in the playoffs and probably win the division.

 

[tynimiller]

If someone says they need to score 30 points a game, this means you average 30 points a game - no? I'm genuinely not trying to be difficult, but this whole thing just seems crazy confusing if that isn't what it means.

Either way past five seasons ppg given up and scored by us for anyone curious

2022 - gave up 21.8 / scored 21.7
2021 - gave up 21.8 / scored 26.5
2020 - gave up 23.1 / scored 31.8
2019 - gave up 19.6 / scored 23.5
2018 - gave up 25 / scored 23.5

 

[gopkrs]

Yes. We will have to score 30 or more to beat good teams. Our defense is not good enough alone to stop teams, and our offense isn't strong enough to dominate games with long drives that suck up the clock, and end in scores.

I think our D will be quite a bit better this year. Unless Barry calls too many conservative plays. Looking forward to watching Devonte Wyatt. He is a big piece of the puzzle and if he plays well; we will do much better against the run.