Keep the rest of our powder dry?

[Heyjoe4]

Since we're already off topic here, here's a valuable link to track the progress of this crisis on the macro level:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Confirmed cases in the US is currently 27,000. Yesterday it was 19,000. As expected, and as experienced in other countries, the confirmed case curve is going parabolic as testing ramps up. Inept response at the federal level, a still on-going, sit-on-the-hands, "shallow state" approach as the war powers act is not implemented ("We are not a shipping clerk") has exacerbated and continues to exacerbate early transmission, creating a broader and growing base of carriers which will prolong the crisis. States are in competition for resources as we move into the phase where states hoard whatever essential equipment and supplies they can get their hands on, rather than the federal goverment demanding the for-profit medical system produce what is needed as fast as possible, holding their feet to the fire, and getting it distributed to where it is needed most.

One small slice of this absurdity is evidenced in the fact that even if one got a free test, the Big 2 lab testing corporations, at least as of yesterday, wouldn't process the test unless that person has insurance. 40,000,000 Americans do not. It would be a no brainer is this trillion dollar relief package to take a tiny slice or that package and guarantee federal payment for tests for the uninsured. Duh.

It would behoove you to listen to "President" Cuomo's identification of the problems and prescriptions for getting after this thing.

Regardless of whether one agrees or disagress with that critique, the proof will be in the numbers and they will be undisputable.

As for the other of matter of "keeping one's powder dry" with respect to an investment portfolio, tracking those Johns Hopkins numbers on a daily basis will likely provide a signal. When the case curve starts to flatten the crisis will be under some kind of coordinatated control. That's probably a fairly long way off, and the economic damage in the interim is likely to be quite severe.

You nailed it. Dear Leader, for whatever twisted reason, won’t use the War Powers Act to enforce production of needed supplies. So the states are competing with each other and the suppliers. That’s just nuts.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yes, the testing has to get much better...and everywhere. We need to get a handle on the true stats, and we do this by helping other parts of the world. Other places, as you pointed out, think things are not that bad probably because symptoms are not that bad and they just are not testing anyone. So the virus will expand.

I don't think you understand the situation. The US is the poorest equiped structurally and in leadership among industrialized countries to handle this problem. The Senate is about to pass a $2 trillion "relief" package, double what was spent on the financial crisis bailout. Of course, those bailouts were fully paid back, with interest. While we await the details on this package, you can expect most of that money will not be paid back.

At this stage, you might as well call the US ground zero.

It will be of interest to see how much of this "relief" is supply-side vs. how much will go directly into the hands of those who need it and will spend it. 40% of US households don't have $400 in the bank. Those households are heavily weighted to the kinds of service jobs experiencing heavy layoffs. I would hope, but don't expect, a federal supplement to state unemployment insurance.

Targetted business loans are in order. We don't need a mass of bunkruptices triggering a debt crisis on top of everything else.

 

[HardRightEdge]

You nailed it. Dear Leader, for whatever twisted reason, won’t use the War Powers Act to enforce production of needed supplies. So the states are competing with each other and the suppliers. That’s just nuts.

He's more about the distribution of credit and blame than goods and services. He even pulled out the G.W. Bush/Chaney gambit, "I am a war time president," a campaign proclamation. This happens to be one of those things that will resist lies, spin, hyperbole, happy talk, self-aggrandisement and, ultimately, bureaucratic and technocratic imcompetence.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I don't think you understand the situation. The US is the poorest equiped structurally and in leadership among industrialized countries to handle this problem. The Senate is about to pass a $2 trillion "relief" package, double what was spent on the financial crisis bailout. Of course, those bailouts were fully paid back, with interest. While we await the details on this package, you can expect most of that money will not be paid back.

At this stage, you might as well call the US ground zero.

It will be of interest to see how much of this "relief" is supply-side vs. how much will go directly into the hands of those who need it and will spend it. 40% of US households don't have $400 in the bank. Those households are heavily weighted to the kinds of service jobs experiencing heavy layoffs. I would hope, but don't expect, a federal supplement to state unemployment insurance.

Targetted business loans are in order. We don't need a mass of bunkruptices triggering a debt crisis on top of everything else.

Yeah I heard Trump say he “hopes” corporations don’t spend the aid on stock buybacks (which do nothing for the economy and only support the stock price). He ”hopes” they don’t do it? How about “Here’s $***,***,***. Do NOT F@#$%$# spend it on buybacks or your sorry *** will be in jail!”

War-Time President. Big Man. Yeah, right.

(Sorry, that was all political and had nothing to do with the Pack. I just couldn’t resist.)

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yeah I heard Trump say he “hopes” corporations don’t spend the aid on stock buybacks (which do nothing for the economy and only support the stock price). He ”hopes” they don’t do it? How about “Here’s $***,***,***. Do NOT F@#$%$# spend it on buybacks or your sorry *** will be in jail!”

War-Time President. Big Man. Yeah, right.

(Sorry, that was all political and had nothing to do with the Pack. I just couldn’t resist.)

Absurd. Every analyst and his brother predicted that the corporate tax cuts would go largely to stock buybacks. Why?

1) Coporations were already borrowing hand over fist at low interest rates to buy back shares to boost share prices. What were they going to do with free money?
2) The "greatest economy in history" was only growing at 2.0 - 2.5%, pretty sluggish, not requiring accelerated corporate investment.
3) There was no shorage of productive capacity.

It was those very buybacks that boosted the stock market that Trump so proudly proclaimed was his doing! Is he a fool or a liar? It really doesn't matter and I'm beyond trying to guess which or both.

Right now, any money going to corporations or small businesses should be targetted to preventing their loans from being called. It wouldn't take many weeks or months for many businesses seeing sharply depressed or zero revenue coming in the door to be in violation of loan covenents or outright default on loan payments. Again, the last thing we need is a debt crisis.

I make no appologies for being off topic.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Absurd. Every analyst and his brother predicted that the corporate tax cuts would go largely to stock buybacks. Why?

1) Coporations were already borrowing hand over fist at low interest rates to buy back shares and boost share prices. What were they going to do with free money?
2) The "greatest economy in history" was only growing at 2.0 - 2.5%, pretty sluggish, not requiring accelerated corporate investment.
3) There was no shorage of productive capacity.

It was those very buybacks that boosted the stock market that Trump so proudly proclaimed was his doing! If he a fool or a liar? It really doesn't matter and I'm beyond guess which or both.

Right now, any money going to corporations or small businesses should be targetted to preventing their loans to be called. It wouldn't take many weeks or months for many businesses seeing sharply depressed or zero revenue coming in the door to be in violation of loan covenents or outright default on loan payments.

Well I see the point at which the Dems and GOP are divided today is just this. The GOP wants no limits on how the money is spent. Hey I’m an investor and I’m as sick as anybody about what is happening. But saving lives should be the guiding light for all these legislators, for all of us. On top of the virus, it’s sickening, as is Dear Leader’s reluctance to act on the War Powers Act and repurpose as much manufacturing as possible on desperately needed medical supplies. What a country we live in.

All we have to do to save lives is stay the hell home and watch Netflix. How tough is that?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Here's a fun story.

A couple of nights ago Rand Paul tried to highjack Senate deliberations on the crisis relief package with a call for a bill to end the Afghaniston war which all but ended anyway.

Guess who has now contracted the Corona virus? Yeah, you guessed, in the "there is some justice in this world" department.

 

[rmontro]

I would like to see the politicians focus on the problems at hand right now, instead of engaging in political sniping against each other. I see that was too much to ask, however.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Here's a fun story.

A couple of nights ago Rand Paul tried to highjack Senate deliberations on the crisis relief package with a call for a bill to end the Afghaniston war which all but ended anyway.

Guess who has now contracted the Corona virus? Yeah, you guessed, in the "there is some justice in this world" department.

Rand Paul. Ugh. I don’t like the guy but wouldn’t wish this virus on anyone. At the same time, Karma can be kind or cruel. That’s up to the individual. Any deliberations in Congress other than fighting this virus need to be tabled, or there won’t be anything to debate.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I would like to see the politicians focus on the problems at hand right now, instead of engaging in political sniping against each other. I see that was too much to ask, however.

I’m generalizing, but our representatives are too stupid or too greedy or just plain lack any empathy to make progress on this virus. It’s not just the #1 priority right now, it’s the only priority.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well I see the point at which the Dems and GOP are divided today is just this. The GOP wants no limits on how the money is spent.

That's because it is easier to administer. Once money goes into a corporate coffer it is impossible to know how it was spent because you do not know what money would have been spent on what in the absence of that injection. It was the same approach in the financial crisis in the absence of viable alternatives in an immediate time frame.

It seems to me money should be loaned on the basis of a claim of impending insolvancy to be reviewed and clawed back later on a case by case basis. That requires a deep state with deep competency. As it stands, $2 trillion probably will not be enough given the high leverage in the economy, corporate and household, using blunt instruments.

 

[Poppa San]

the war powers act is not implemented

What would change if it were implemented? Seizure of stockpiles? Food is being produced. Non medical equipment manufacturers are getting into the game. ABCnews

Hanes expects to ramp up to production of 1.5 million masks weekly, and the consortium of companies it has joined, led by Parkdale Mills America, is expected to ramp up to production of 5 million to 6 million masks weekly

Ventilators?
Detroit won’t save us from a ventilator shortage anytime soon

Respirator manufacturing facilities in the United States are already at 100 percent production capacity and are looking to ramp up by another 15 or 20 percent,

Military response

But the Pentagon is also taking steps to support the Trump administration's whole-of-government response to the coronavirus,

Temporary hospitals

"With the continued spread of COVID-19 expected to exert added pressure on land-based healthcare facilities, including a possible shortage of hospital beds, Carnival Corporation and its brands are calling on governments and health authorities to consider using cruise ships as temporary healthcare facilities to treat non-COVID-19 patients, freeing up additional space and expanding capacity in land-based hospitals to treat cases of COVID-19,"

Until now, all of the above appear to have been freely offered, not taken under threat, which the war powers act implies.
Do you have a cite for the following as I can't seem to be able to verify it:

One small slice of this absurdity is evidenced in the fact that even if one got a free test, the Big 2 lab testing corporations, at least as of yesterday, wouldn't process the test unless that person has insurance. 40,000,000 Americans do not. It would be a no brainer is this trillion dollar relief package to take a tiny slice or that package and guarantee federal payment for tests for the uninsured. Duh.

tracking those Johns Hopkins numbers on a daily basis will likely provide a signal. When the case curve starts to flatten the crisis will be under some kind of coordinatated control.

I can't find the cite now but an article I read or saw supports the idea that the number of new hospital cases is a better indicator of success than the number of positive tests. The only way the cases number works is if everyone was tested on an ongoing basis, which isn't happening here or anywhere besides South Korea and possibly Taiwan. The hospitalization numbers are the goal of the current methods.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's because it is easier to administer. Once money goes into a corporate coffer it is impossible to know how it was spent because you do not know what money would have been spent on what in the absence of that injection. It was the same approach in the financial crisis in the absence of viable alternatives in an immediate time frame.

It seems to me money should be loaned on the basis of a claim of impending insolvancy to be reviewed and clawed back later on a case by case basis. That requires a deep state with deep competency. As it stands, $2 trillion probably will not be enough given the high leverage in the economy, corporate and household, using blunt instruments.

Good point. Well even if the funds are used to reduce the record levels of debt, across the board, that will be useful. And hopefully some of those companies will choose to keep paying people something. The economy rides on the backs of the consumers.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Until now, all of the above appear to have been freely offered, not taken under threat, which the war powers act implies.

What the current approach implies is that the supplies and equipment produced will go to the orders placed first or the highest bidders, not necessarily where they are most needed. If a private producer has more orders than can be filled immediately, you are leaving it to that company to decide where they go. Or, as Trump stated, "We are not a shipping clerk", which is exactly what he needs to be, directing where these products go. Since the Administration has been gutted of expertise, that may not be possible.

In the "closing the barn door after the cow got out" department, for those stuck at home and interested in matters of bureucratic competence or lack thereof, I suggest reading Michael Lewis' "The Fith Risk". That's if Amazon will even ship it as a non-essential.

As for the Pentagon and the Army Corps, they are are on stand-by, not in the fray.

Hospitalized patients is not a good measure of the extent of the crisis. There are only so many beds. If demand exceeds supply then....

 

[HardRightEdge]

Good point. Well even if the funds are used to reduce the record levels of debt, across the board, that will be useful. And hopefully some of those companies will choose to keep paying people something. The economy rides on the backs of the consumers.

It's not about reducing the level of debt. That's not possible. It's about preventing defaults on the debt that already exists. Cascading defaults take bad to worse to very, very bad.

If I default on my debt to you, the loss of those payments to you may result on your default to your creditors, and on down the line to the banks and shadow banks.

 

[Sky King]

If you are trying to cut through the myriad levels of political and panic baloney to achieve some relief regarding our present crisis, consider the attached perspective:

Subject: Ross Rant March 18, 2020

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

The world will never be the same.
..<the main body of what appears to be a paid subscription article has been deleted by a moderator as a violation of our rules>...
Humans rise to the occasion, and the virus is nothing at all by comparison. America is rising up and will be better than ever.

 

[rmontro]

Iran is going to have major risks of revolution.

No wonder their leader is saying the virus is man made by the US, and is specifically designed to genetically attack Iranians. He wants to redirect the hate. No better scapegoat in the middle east than the good old US of A.

 

[AKCheese]

Stupid should be painful. (And now it is)

 

[Poppa San]

If you are trying to cut through the myriad levels of political and panic baloney to achieve some relief regarding our present crisis, consider the attached perspective:

Subject: Ross Rant March 18, 2020

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

...

Did you create this or can you put a link to the article? If it is from a paysite, which my research seems to indicate, then well

Posting Articles:
There has been a number of occasions where a user wants to post an article from another site. We are completely IN FAVOR of posting articles from another since that creates a good discussion on this site. However, there are some guidelines that need to be followed.
...<several lines deleted for brevity> ...
The one thing that NEVER should be done is copying articles from PAY sites. We do not allow this at all and could get us in trouble if we post content from paid sites.

I deleted the content. If I was in error, link to the site as the rules state.