Free Agency: Packers Should Green Bay Pursue?

[Sunshinepacker]

The problem with this logic is that you're using contracts that were signed in 2016 (Jones) and 2015 (Heyward) as a combined comparison of a deal that would be signed in 2020 or 2021.

The cap was 143 million in 2015 and 155 million in 2016. It's currently 198 million and projects to about 207 million next off-season.

Jones' cap figure was 5.2% of the total cap when he signed, and Heyward's was 6.4%, for a combined 11.6% of the total salary cap. In 2020 dollars, their combined price tag would be 23M (or 24M next offseason), not 17M.

If you want to actually compare a 17M price tag for Clark to the combination of two players, you need to find guys who were just signed, or do the math and figure out older comps that fit the percentage.

So an accurate comparison would be Michael Pierce and Emmanuel Sanders. Or another would be Robby Anderson and Quinton Jefferson. If I have to pick between Clark and a comparison of that caliber, it isn't even a question.

Well, Shelby Harris hasn't signed yet so give me Tyler Boyd at WR and Harris at DT for less than $17m per season and I'll take those two to help the team more than just signing one guy at DT not named Aaron Donald. Again, this is ALL contingent on contract. If Clark signs for $12m per year, then that would be wonderful. According to overthecap.com that would make him the highest paid 3-4 DT in the NFL.

Please, look at the point of the post and stop missing the forest to check the details on the trees. The team could also use corners and TEs so those are also positions that could be looked at.

 

[Dantés]

Well, Shelby Harris hasn't signed yet so give me Tyler Boyd at WR and Harris at DT for less than $17m per season and I'll take those two to help the team more than just signing one guy at DT not named Aaron Donald. Again, this is ALL contingent on contract. If Clark signs for $12m per year, then that would be wonderful. According to overthecap.com that would make him the highest paid 3-4 DT in the NFL.

Please, look at the point of the post and stop missing the forest to check the details on the trees. The team could also use corners and TEs so those are also positions that could be looked at.

I literally responded directly to your point and disagreed with you precisely on the grounds that you were contending. So I don't know what you're talking about, "missing the forest for the trees." You created a totally faulty comparison based on contracts that have no relevance to the current salary cap climate. I'd say that pointing that out is fair game.

You may think that Tyler Boyd and Shelby Harris would be a better duo to have than Kenny Clark. I strongly disagree. I would also point out that contracts like Boyd's, i.e. extensions that players did with their original team before hitting free agency, aren't realistic comp's to what one could get on the open market. Guys who make it to actual FA make more than guys who extend before they ever get there. That's why a player of Boyd's quality only made 1M more in 2020 cap dollars than a guy of a lower caliber, like Robby Anderson.

Lastly, Clark is not a 3-4 NT. He's an interior defensive lineman. True 3-4 NT's play about 40% (or less) of the snaps in today's NFL. The Packers are rarely ever in a 3-4 alignment. Yes, Clark can and does play in that spot when we occasional roll out a 3-4, but the vast majority of the time, he's played somewhere from a shade to a 3T alignment in sub package-- nickel or dime.

This is an important distinction, because guys like Michael Pierce or Damon Harrison, true 2-down NT's, are rightfully going to make far less than Clark. But Clark is not limited to anything like their role, because he's a dangerous interior pass rusher. Hence, 12 sacks from the interior over the last two seasons, and many more hits and pressures.

So once again, I would argue that you're making a faulty comparison.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I literally responded directly to your point and disagreed with you precisely on the grounds that you were contending. So I don't know what you're talking about, "missing the forest for the trees." You created a totally faulty comparison based on contracts that have no relevance to the current salary cap climate. I'd say that pointing that out is fair game.

You may think that Tyler Boyd and Shelby Harris would be a better duo to have than Kenny Clark. I strongly disagree. I would also point out that contracts like Boyd's, i.e. extensions that players did with their original team before hitting free agency, aren't realistic comp's to what one could get on the open market. Guys who make it to actual FA make more than guys who extend before they ever get there. That's why a player of Boyd's quality only made 1M more in 2020 cap dollars than a guy of a lower caliber, like Robby Anderson.

Lastly, Clark is not a 3-4 NT. He's an interior defensive lineman. True 3-4 NT's play about 40% (or less) of the snaps in today's NFL. The Packers are rarely ever in a 3-4 alignment. Yes, Clark can and does play in that spot when we occasional roll out a 3-4, but the vast majority of the time, he's played somewhere from a shade to a 3T alignment in sub package-- nickel or dime.

This is an important distinction, because guys like Michael Pierce or Damon Harrison, true 2-down NT's, are rightfully going to make far less than Clark. But Clark is not limited to anything like their role, because he's a dangerous interior pass rusher. Hence, 12 sacks from the interior over the last two seasons, and many more hits and pressures.

So once again, I would argue that you're making a faulty comparison.

Clark didn't make an impact against the 49ers. Very few players on the Packers did, so I'm not trying to knock him, he's very good. Paying him at the expense of improving other positions does NOT help the Packers close the gap with the 49ers or other elite teams like the 49ers. Losing him and not making impacts elsewhere with that money will widen the gap, however. So, in any analysis, what matters is what is done with that money. There aren't too many DT's who have proven to be worth massive contracts. I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

 

[Dantés]

Clark didn't make an impact against the 49ers. Very few players on the Packers did, so I'm not trying to knock him, he's very good. Paying him at the expense of improving other positions does NOT help the Packers close the gap with the 49ers or other elite teams like the 49ers. Losing him and not making impacts elsewhere with that money will widen the gap, however. So, in any analysis, what matters is what is done with that money. There aren't too many DT's who have proven to be worth massive contracts. I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

The difference in how we see this is that I think you have to narrow the gap by keeping him and building on top of your core, not by dismantling your core. To let him go and spread his price tag out over two guys would widen the gap, not narrow it, in my opinion. Replacing Kenny Clark for Shelby Harris makes things dramatically worse, and adding Robby Anderson or similar to the offensive side ain't beginning to make up for it.

I also totally disagree with the statement in bold. I can think of a number of guys currently under contract who have totally paid off. Fletcher Cox, Grady Jarrett, Geno Atkins, Jurrell Casey, Cam Heyward, Akiem Hicks, etc, etc.

It's strange to me that in one post you'd talk about closing the gap with the 49ers (who have invested HUGE in their interior DL) and talk about investing in iDL not paying off. That doesn't make sense.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's a terrible idea for the Packers to get rid of Clark. They will need to create cap space in a different way to improve other positions of need or successfully address them in the draft.



I'm not convinced Jackson is a better passer than any of the other quarterbacks you mentioned.

Well we have a small sample size, and I didn’t watch every Ravens’ game, but it looks to me like he had a pretty good arm. Do you know his final numbers on TDs/INTs/Passer Rating? But again, I’m reluctant to throw in with running QBs much beyond 5 years.

Aaron Jones being a fifth round pick should serve as evidence there's absolutely no need to spend a first round pick on a running back.

As a side note, teams have to consider position of need when making a draft selection. Best value available is the way to go.



I agree that there's no reason to reach for a prospect based on need. Running back can definitely be addressed after the first three rounds of the draft though.



I guess Newton's asking price might end up being a reason no team signs him this offseason.



At this point a running back selected late in the first round would be paid close to $6 million on the fifth year option and $12.5 million while being franchised. In my opinion that doesn't justify spending a first rounder on the position by any means.



In my opinion there wasn't any drop-off in performance with Patrick taking over for Linsley last season. Therefore I don't see the need to retain Linsley considering the Packers could save significant cap space by releasing him.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The original deal that was reported was 3/13.5/6.

My understanding is that Dennard is primarily a slot corner, where the Packers have a glaring need.

They should be in on him.

Yeah that sounds like pretty cheap insurance for the secondary. The only guy I feel REALLY good about back there is Alexander. Amos and Savage make for a decent-enough starting S group, and I do expect Savage to mature and become better at control. Anyway, sounds like Denmark would be a good move, given cap space at any moment in time.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm sorry but this comment allows zero room for context. Let's see what his contract is before we decide it's a terrible idea. If he's asking for an average of $16m+ per year (what the top DTs are making) then I don't think he's worth it. Sorry, but this team has too many holes to count on spending that amount of money on a guy who is AWESOME at his position but isn't as valuable by himself as a combination of say, Cameron Hayward and Marvin Jones would be (two guys who combine for $17m per year).

Once again, I agree the team has several positions in need of an upgrade but you don't improve the overall talent level on it by letting a 24-year old elite defensive lineman walk away in free agency to sign two average players on the DL and another position.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Once again, I agree the team has several positions in need of an upgrade but you don't improve the overall talent level on it by letting a 24-year old elite defensive lineman walk away in free agency to sign two average players on the DL and another position.

I’m late to this discussion, but any notion of letting Clark go is NUTS. Gluten needs to use the remaining cap, the draft, FA, and maybe trades to get Clark some much needed help on the DL. Players like Clark come along rarely, so I agree that we need to keep him. Will it cost $16 mil/year? I have no idea but all one has to do is look at what elite veteran iDL players are getting and that pretty much sets the market. Replacing Clark with 2 or 3 average iDLs is not an answer. That’s why Gluten is being cautious in FA. IMO we need to keep homegrown talent like Clark and Bakhtiari.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

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How the hell did we forget about Ted Ginn? I'll take him over Gabriel any day. He would be our de-facto KR next to Ervin, and depth behind him at PR as well.

 

[hasamikun]

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How the hell did we forget about Ted Ginn? I'll take him over Gabriel any day. He would be our de-facto KR next to Ervin, and depth behind him at PR as well.

Man, Ginn wasnt really productive in his last 3,4 season and is already 34 years old. While Gabriel hasnt been any more produtive than Ginn, he is 5 years younger and would be as cheap as Ginn.

I’m late to this discussion, but any notion of letting Clark go is NUTS. Gluten needs to use the remaining cap, the draft, FA, and maybe trades to get Clark some much needed help on the DL. Players like Clark come along rarely, so I agree that we need to keep him. Will it cost $16 mil/year? I have no idea but all one has to do is look at what elite veteran iDL players are getting and that pretty much sets the market. Replacing Clark with 2 or 3 average iDLs is not an answer. That’s why Gluten is being cautious in FA. IMO we need to keep homegrown talent like Clark and Bakhtiari.

I agree. One major criticism of Ted Thompsons era was that they didnt keep any defensive starters and the defense therefore sucked . Now arguing that letting the arguably best defensive player go is wild. You dont improve your team with letting elite players go and use that money to get 3 average guys.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Man, Ginn wasnt really productive in his last 3,4 season and is already 34 years old. While Gabriel hasnt been any more produtive than Ginn, he is 5 years younger and would be as cheap as Ginn.



I agree. One major criticism of Ted Thompsons era was that they didnt keep any defensive starters and the defense therefore sucked . Now arguing that letting the arguably best defensive player go is wild. You dont improve your team with letting elite players go and use that money to get 3 average guys.

And add to that the fact that Clark has been a Packer for a number of years, is only 24, and is one of the league’s best players at the position........ yeah, you don’t let guys like that go. If a team was in total rebuild and in need of draft picks, then maybe. GB is not in that position.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

IMO we need to keep homegrown talent like Clark and Bakhtiari.

While I'm in favor of re-signing Bakhtiari the Packers need to be cautious about it. He will be 30 years old at the start of the 2021 season and the team needs to be sure about his back issues not being a problem going forward before signing him to a massive extension.

How the hell did we forget about Ted Ginn? I'll take him over Gabriel any day. He would be our de-facto KR next to Ervin, and depth behind him at PR as well.

Ginn hasn't been a returner the past two seasons. In addition there's no room for a backup returner on the roster.

Man, Ginn wasnt really productive in his last 3,4 season and is already 34 years old. While Gabriel hasnt been any more produtive than Ginn, he is 5 years younger and would be as cheap as Ginn.

I agree. One major criticism of Ted Thompsons era was that they didnt keep any defensive starters and the defense therefore sucked.

To be fair, Ginn had three consecutive seasons with over 700 receiving yards from 2015-17. He regressed over the past two years.

Thompson should be criticized for not using free agency or trades to improve the defense but he definitely retained most of the core players on that side of the ball.

 

[PackAttack12]

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[Do7]

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Once again Detroit picks up our hand me downs.

 

[Dantés]

The Lions must have recognized that Allison is a #elite separator.

 

[Heyjoe4]

While I'm in favor of re-signing Bakhtiari the Packers need to be cautious about it. He will be 30 years old at the start of the 2021 season and the team needs to be sure about his back issues not being a problem going forward before signing him to a massive extension.



Ginn hasn't been a returner the past two seasons. In addition there's no room for a backup returner on the roster.



To be fair, Ginn had three consecutive seasons with over 700 receiving yards from 2015-17. He regressed over the past two years.

Thompson should be criticized for not using free agency or trades to improve the defense but he definitely retained most of the core players on that side of the ball.

“While I'm in favor of re-signing Bakhtiari the Packers need to be cautious about it. He will be 30 years old at the start of the 2021 season and the team needs to be sure about his back issues not being a problem going forward before signing him to a massive extension.”

Yeah I think a three year contract is as far as they should go. And back issues notwithstanding, he’s turning 30 in 2021 as you point out. He has held up better physically than Bulaga, one reason I’m not opposed to giving him three more years.

I’d like to see a chart showing when OTs start to decline and eventually retire. Tough position to play, and it’s risky to be taking on a 3-year deal for a guy who will turn 30 with back problems. All that said, GB will likely have to pay market value to keep him. IMO, it’s a risk worth taking. He protects #12’s blind side and has done so admirably for many years. He’s also rated highly (top 1-3) of LTs in the league, if not the best. I know, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but I think this is a signing Gluten has to make and then we collectively hold our breath that his play continues at a high level.

It also provides some time to draft his ultimate replacement. Not an immediate priority, but will be in the next 2 years.

 

[Do7]

In random news, Lambeau Field is trending on twitter. At least for me it is anyways.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yeah I think a three year contract is as far as they should go. And back issues notwithstanding, he’s turning 30 in 2021 as you point out. He has held up better physically than Bulaga, one reason I’m not opposed to giving him three more years.

All that said, GB will likely have to pay market value to keep him. IMO, it’s a risk worth taking. He protects #12’s blind side and has done so admirably for many years. He’s also rated highly (top 1-3) of LTs in the league, if not the best. I know, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but I think this is a signing Gluten has to make and then we collectively hold our breath that his play continues at a high level.

There's no doubt Bakhtiari was an elite left tackle before struggling at times last season. The Packers should be extremely reluctant to pay him like that if the back problems develop into chronic issues this year though.

 

[bigbubbatd]

Some people have brought up Brandin Cooks and it looks like he is most definitely on the block and has been connected with the Packers. I dont know contract and cap stuff like many others so a few questions
1. Could the Packers even afford him? I am assuming dropping just Linsley wouldn't be enough
2. His contract looks like it has an opt out after this year. Who chooses the opt out? Him or the team?
3. He has had 4 concussions. Should he even be playing football anymore?
4. What would it cost in terms of picks

Cooks if healthy, obviously would give us an incredibly formidable wr combination - Adams, Cooks, Funchess, and Lazard would be a tough cover. It would also allow us to go DT, ILB, CB, OT in the draft. I just dont see how it would work contract wise

 

[Pkrjones]

I don't think there's any chance of the Rams trading Cooks. His salary ($8mil) & roster bonus ($4mil) are already guaranteed. He costs the Rams $16.8mil on their cap but if traded (with post 6/01 designation) would mean $13mil dead money OR without 6/01 designation almost $30mil dead money...it's cheaper to keep him and then cut him next year for the Rams.

If I'm Gute I wouldn't consider trading anything for him with his head & $$$ issues.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

$177 isn't so bad when you're the defending Super Bowl Champs....

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[Sunshinepacker]

Once again, I agree the team has several positions in need of an upgrade but you don't improve the overall talent level on it by letting a 24-year old elite defensive lineman walk away in free agency to sign two average players on the DL and another position.

And, again, you do if you overpay a player for the impact he has on the team. There is a price for EVERY player, and Clark's price cannot be a top-5 overall DT contract.

Look at it this way. You had dominant Clark this year and he didn't help the team all that much against the best teams in the NFL (granted, the only "best" team that the Packers played last year was the 49ers). So, if you keep him and tie up a large chunk of the cap, you're staying status quo on defense and relying on rookies to make a big impact. Not the normal view on great players but at some point a team needs to weigh the pros and cons of whether to make improvements at multiple positions while losing some talent at one, or retaining talent at one position while probably staying the same at other positions.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

The difference in how we see this is that I think you have to narrow the gap by keeping him and building on top of your core, not by dismantling your core. To let him go and spread his price tag out over two guys would widen the gap, not narrow it, in my opinion. Replacing Kenny Clark for Shelby Harris makes things dramatically worse, and adding Robby Anderson or similar to the offensive side ain't beginning to make up for it.

I also totally disagree with the statement in bold. I can think of a number of guys currently under contract who have totally paid off. Fletcher Cox, Grady Jarrett, Geno Atkins, Jurrell Casey, Cam Heyward, Akiem Hicks, etc, etc.

It's strange to me that in one post you'd talk about closing the gap with the 49ers (who have invested HUGE in their interior DL) and talk about investing in iDL not paying off. That doesn't make sense.

You've listed a lot of great players who have certainly played very well at their positions. However, the Packers aren't going to close the gap with the 49ers when they have holes at CB, WR, TE, OL, ILB, and DE by signing one of the best DT's in the NFL which will sacrifice improving at those positions. CB is probably the most important defensive position in the NFL, followed closely by edge rusher. Clark is an amazing player but the holes on the defense are too plentiful to think that tying up an extra $15m per year in Clark is going to close the gap with the 49ers, much less the Chiefs.

 

[Dantés]

You've listed a lot of great players who have certainly played very well at their positions. However, the Packers aren't going to close the gap with the 49ers when they have holes at CB, WR, TE, OL, ILB, and DE by signing one of the best DT's in the NFL which will sacrifice improving at those positions. CB is probably the most important defensive position in the NFL, followed closely by edge rusher. Clark is an amazing player but the holes on the defense are too plentiful to think that tying up an extra $15m per year in Clark is going to close the gap with the 49ers, much less the Chiefs.

The Chiefs and 49ers that are currently paying mammoth contracts to really important interior defensive linemen? Those 49ers and Chiefs?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

The Chiefs and 49ers that are currently paying mammoth contracts to really important interior defensive linemen? Those 49ers and Chiefs?

The 49ers are paying edge rushers (Armstead and Ford are NOT defensive tackles) plus their best dlineman is on a rookie deal; and the Chiefs certainly did NOT win based on their defensive performance. So, yeah, those 49ers and Chiefs. If you think the Packers can field the Chiefs offense, then I'll buy paying Clark like the Chiefs are paying Chris Jones.