Dillon.......keeping defenses honest.

[Sunshinepacker]

NFL teams contracted with PFF for data before their draft division even existed.

Ok, so? They are still a professional service that teams use and go on the record with their thoughts. That's still true, right?

 

[Sunshinepacker]

NFL teams do not use PFF as consultants for scouting reports. They use them to collect data, like snaps in man, zone, cover 1, 2, 3, 4, etc etc.

If NFL teams wanted their scouting expertise, they'd just hire them.

They watch more film than anyone else sharing their thoughts in the public sphere and by their very conversations/opinions they spur discussion and provide information. Whether their opinions are correct or not, there is A LOT of value in the information they provide on college players.

 

[tynimiller]

They watch more film than anyone else sharing their thoughts in the public sphere and by their very conversations/opinions they spur discussion and provide information. Whether their opinions are correct or not, there is A LOT of value in the information they provide on college players.

False, I would guarantee you scouting departments on actual NFL teams watch more, if they didn't NFL teams would hire the PFF folks faster and for more than PFF can pay them.

Let me stress, this isn't saying they're useless, but they also like any other opinion or data are still in the end subjective and not the "bible" of all things prospect related.

**EDIT full disclaimer of being wrong. I missed your 'public sphere' part the first time. This claim may be accurate but there is no way of knowing.

 

[GleefulGary]

They watch more film than anyone else sharing their thoughts in the public sphere and by their very conversations/opinions they spur discussion and provide information. Whether their opinions are correct or not, there is A LOT of value in the information they provide on college players.

Sure. I don't think they're terrible, I just don't think they're the scouting gospel. They also have some blatant bias and inaccuracy.

 

[Dantés]

Ok, so? They are still a professional service that teams use and go on the record with their thoughts. That's still true, right?

It's irrelevant to their draft coverage.

 

[Dantés]

They watch more film than anyone else sharing their thoughts in the public sphere and by their very conversations/opinions they spur discussion and provide information. Whether their opinions are correct or not, there is A LOT of value in the information they provide on college players.

This, I agree with. This touches on what has always made PFF valuable-- data.

I think their metrics are great and I value the information they can provide. But I don't think they differentiate themselves at all in terms of being able to project college players to the pros. In fact, I think thus far they've been among the worst when compared to other major media outlets that cover the event. Exceptions exist, but most of the time they go out on a limb and break consensus on a player, they end up looking pretty bad in retrospect.

This is what's funny about Dillon-- by PFF metrics, he's really good. He has a really high grade and some really impressive data points. But their draft people, Mike Renner and others, decided that he didn't belong in their overall 250, which is really funny.

They've realized that their grades don't just translate to the pros. So that means they have to watch the players and make individual determinations based on opinion (like everyone else). And they're not particularly good at it.

 

[GleefulGary]

This, I agree with. This touches on what has always made PFF valuable-- data.

I think their metrics are great and I value the information they can provide. But I don't think they differentiate themselves at all in terms of being able to project college players to the pros. In fact, I think thus far they've been among the worst when compared to other major media outlets that cover the event. Exceptions exist, but most of the time they go out on a limb and break consensus on a player, they end up looking pretty bad in retrospect.

This is what's funny about Dillon-- by PFF metrics, he's really good. He has a really high grade and some really impressive data points. But their draft people, Mike Renner and others, decided that he didn't belong in their overall 250, which is really funny.

They've realized that their grades don't just translate to the pros. So that means they have to watch the players and make individual determinations based on opinion (like everyone else). And they're not particularly good at it.

I remember when their metrics had Jaire rated higher than Josh Jackson, but their draft board had Jackson higher. It's an odd disconnect.

 

[Dantés]

I remember when their metrics had Jaire rated higher than Josh Jackson, but their draft board had Jackson higher. It's an odd disconnect.

I also recall them saying that Jackson was one of the best press man corners in the draft... playing for Iowa... who almost never plays man.

 

[PackAttack12]

Something else I came across this morning that helps explain the Dillon pick.

Last year, Aaron Jones played 55% of the snaps at RB in games for which he was active. That was 22nd in the NFL (in terms of % snaps for the RB1 on the team). And I would say that his work load last year was right at the top end of what you want to give that type of player.

So basically in an ideal Aaron Jones season, he's only giving you half the snaps. That means that unless you add at RB, almost half the snaps are going to Williams, who's JAG in my opinion.

There's zero question about this. I was frustrated at times last season with how much the carries were being split up, due to how much the production fell off with Williams in there as opposed to Jones. However, I definitely understand the fear of giving Jones more of the workload.

If Dillon lives up to his billing, it's going to give the Packers a, dare I say elite, running attack.

The question then becomes. What do you do with Williams for 2020? Do you trade him for another position of need? Or do you leave him on the 53 incase of injury.

Right now, I'm thinking all three (Jones, Dillon, Williams) will be on the opening day roster.

 

[Mavster]

3 years of play for a second round pick vs a decade or more from a second round pick. One of those options is better than the other.

I can’t say I’m a big fan of spending a 2nd on a RB. All goes well and he performs to GBs expectations then they just find themselves in the spot we’re currently in with AJones.

 

[Dantés]

There's zero question about this. I was frustrated at times last season with how much the carries were being split up, due to how much the production fell off with Williams in there as opposed to Jones. However, I definitely understand the fear of giving Jones more of the workload.

If Dillon lives up to his billing, it's going to give the Packers a, dare I say elite, running attack.

The question then becomes. What do you do with Williams for 2020? Do you trade him for another position of need? Or do you leave him on the 53 incase of injury.

Right now, I'm thinking all three (Jones, Dillon, Williams) will be on the opening day roster.

Maybe I would be surprised, but I think people overestimate Williams' value. I'm not sure you could get anything for him.

 

[PackAttack12]

Maybe I would be surprised, but I think people overestimate Williams' value. I'm not sure you could get anything for him.

To your point, he'd probably provide more value as the 3rd back.

 

[tynimiller]

To your point, he'd probably provide more value as the 3rd back.

I predict if he is, it won't be beyond this season. The organization will weight the progress of Dexter and also what the Memphis UDFA back can do and that actually may have a bigger say if Jamaal is kept around or traded away for anything.

 

[GleefulGary]

I predict if he is, it won't be beyond this season. The organization will weight the progress of Dexter and also what the Memphis UDFA back can do and that actually may have a bigger say if Jamaal is kept around or traded away for anything.

Decent chance Dillon is the only RB that returns next year.

 

[PackAttack12]

Decent chance Dillon is the only RB that returns next year.

Agreed. Williams and Dillon as the 1/2 punch does nothing, and Jones could very well price himself out of Green Bay. As bad as I hate to say it, it was imperative to take a running back IF the thought is that Jones likely won't be here beyond this season.

 

[tynimiller]

Decent chance Dillon is the only RB that returns next year.

Definitely possible, I remember saying instantly this pick was both a possible future move, but also a great dynamite duo in the present as well. Jones stays we have an awesome pairing (at least on paper comparing styles and skillsets)....if he goes Dillon appears to be possibly a successor in the waiting with a year to adjust and get used to the NFL/GB system.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Sure. I don't think they're terrible, I just don't think they're the scouting gospel. They also have some blatant bias and inaccuracy.

Agreed. If they were perfect they would be the highest paid GMs in the NFL.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I also recall them saying that Jackson was one of the best press man corners in the draft... playing for Iowa... who almost never plays man.

I actually recall them questioning his ability to play press man since he played so much off coverage. They rated him very highly but did point out that there were questions to him transitioning if he was asked to play press in the pros.

 

[Dantés]

I actually recall them questioning his ability to play press man since he played so much off coverage. They rated him very highly but did point out that there were questions to him transitioning if he was asked to play press in the pros.

People would question their ranking him CB1 because of those concerns and I would see responses about how he graded really well in "press," not differentiating between being in a press alignment, and actually playing press man.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Now since you have a hard time understanding, I do not care what the media experts think. They don't know ****.

Since you have a hard time understanding it, I don't care what you think about draft prospects. While the media, just like NFL teams, are wrong about prospects a lot they have way more knowledge than you.

Defenses don't put extra defenders in the box for Aaron Jones. He must not impact play action either.

The Packers weren't successful using play action last season. Dillon most likely won't change that at all.

I asked why you think Dillon won't have success, and your answer was legitimately "Nobody had him as a day 2 pick."

Dillon has a lot of mileage on his body coming out of college, doesn't offer a whole lot as a receiver and he lacks the ability to make sharp cuts.

People freak out that this means Dillon must be an elite prospect, but Henry was by no means considered an elite prospect.

Fine, you're right that Dillon is a similar type of running back as Henry. That doesn't mean he will have as much success based on the reasons mentioned above though.

3 Year College Stats
Attemps 602 - Rushing Yards 3,591 - YPC 6.0 - TDs 42

3 Year College Stats
Attempts 845 - Rushing Yards 4,382 - YPC 5.2 - TDs 38

Which is which is the question....

Is there any reason you ignore that Henry put up those numbers playing in the SEC while Dillon faced significant weaker opposition???

More importantly, where did they have Andy Isabella?

Or Rashan Gary?

As bad as I hate to say it, it was imperative to take a running back IF the thought is that Jones likely won't be here beyond this season.

It's true the Packers needed to select a running back in this year's draft. But there was no reason to spend a second rounder on the position.

 

[tynimiller]

Is there any reason you ignore that Henry put up those numbers playing in the SEC while Dillon faced significant weaker opposition???

Not ignoring anything. I'm already the one that stated he isn't Henry. However, Henry is easily the best physical, skillset comparison of the top shelf Dillon may be come. I cannot think of another back presently I'd argue is as similar for the size, speed and skillset he brings to the table. One can clearly see this, yet still not believe Dillon is going to be like Henry.

 

[Dantés]

Fine, you're right that Dillon is a similar type of running back as Henry. That doesn't mean he will have as much success based on the reasons mentioned above though.

That is true. It's not unusual to see very similar prospects go in different directions once they hit the league.

My point is not "he's like Henry, therefore bank on production like Henry's."

My point that he could likely fit the offense in much the same way that Henry has fit the offense, providing he works out.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

How much did Lacy weigh at the end of his career in GB? It had to have been more than 247. Dillon is more comparable to him than Henry as a runner, IMO.

 

[Dantés]

How much did Lacy weigh at the end of his career in GB? It had to have been more than 247. Dillon is more comparable to him than Henry as a runner, IMO.

A.J. Dillon's body fat at the combine was 7.8%. He's amazingly lean for such a huge player.

Comparing him to a guy who ate himself out of the league is pretty silly.

 

[tynimiller]

How much did Lacy weigh at the end of his career in GB? It had to have been more than 247. Dillon is more comparable to him than Henry as a runner, IMO.

Stats/measurables I could find on Lacy from 2013:
5'11"
220lbs
4.64 Pro day Forty
Vertical: 33.5
Bench: nothing found
Broad: nothing found
Hands: 9.48
Arms: 31

vs

Dillon:
6'0"
247lbs
4.53 Forty
Vertical: 41
Bench Press: 23
Broad Jump: 131
Hands: 9 5/8
Arms: 31 5/8
3 Cone: 7.19

Dillon is a bigger man than Lacy was, but performs faster, the Lacy comp isn't terrible though if we are discussing past runners when they came into the league...and not after, because Lacy changed BIG TIME.