Dillon.......keeping defenses honest.

[Heyjoe4]

No, he wouldn't have been there in the 5th.

Correct. Drafting a guy too early is better than the alternative (losing him). Maybe he’s there in the 3rd, but with those measurables, I think Gluten did the right thing.

 

[Dantés]

They look at everything on a per play basis, not taking into account that even an average RB on most teams is going to touch the ball far more than any WR will. I think the reasoning behind the pick is that Dillon's impact goes beyond simple YPC and potentially impacts the PA game to such a degree. It's all theoretical until we actually see it, but he's not a guy that defenses want to see get past the first level and could lead to some overcommitment from the LBs and safeties

PFF's strength is in identifying what took place. That's their differentiation-- they look at every play and say "here's what happened."

The draft is about looking not just as what a player did, but what he can do and how it projects. It's about traits more than it's about production.

PFF has no special ability when it comes to recognizing or projecting traits, and thus I don't see why they would be especially relevant to the draft conversation.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I guess the NFL will just need to put in a new rule, stating that no RB'S are eligible to be drafted in the 1st or 2nd rds..

Reason #1, any RB can be successful and help a team after Rd 2.

Reason #2, all RB'S are interchangeable, regardless of size and skill set.

Reason #3, offensive scheme and what current RB'S are on teams rosters have no bearing on which RB the team should draft, they all bring the same attributes.

Reason #4 WE WANTED A WR DRAFTED, and that's the only skill position that could help the Packers offense moving forward.

I could care less what the Packers wanted, I just think it's silly to draft a position in round 2 that you probably aren't going to give a second contract, ESPECIALLY when a team already has one of the top 6 or 7 RBs in the NFL on the roster. You're talking about spending a 2nd round pick on a guy that will most likely be a starter for the team for 3 years. Compare that to a CB, OT, WR, pass rusher who, if they're good, will be on the team for a decade.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

PFF's strength is in identifying what took place. That's their differentiation-- they look at every play and say "here's what happened."

The draft is about looking not just as what a player did, but what he can do and how it projects. It's about traits more than it's about production.

PFF has no special ability when it comes to recognizing or projecting traits, and thus I don't see why they would be especially relevant to the draft conversation.

Because there are certain traits that translate to the NFL from college on a much more consistent basis. E.g., pass rushers that are highly productive in college tend to translate more consistently than those guys with a ton of potential but not much actual production. Offensive tackles are somewhat similar regarding consistency in pass blocking. Knowing which traits that "took place" in college are the best indicators of performance professionally can help identify potential busts and sleepers.

 

[Dantés]

Because there are certain traits that translate to the NFL from college on a much more consistent basis. E.g., pass rushers that are highly productive in college tend to translate more consistently than those guys with a ton of potential but not much actual production. Offensive tackles are somewhat similar regarding consistency in pass blocking. Knowing which traits that "took place" in college are the best indicators of performance professionally can help identify potential busts and sleepers.

There are traits that translate, but PFF hasn't proven to be particular good at identifying them.

They've been particularly horrible at pass rusher, for example, when they've decided to go way off consensus.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

There are traits that translate, but PFF hasn't proven to be particular good at identifying them.

They've been particularly horrible at pass rusher, for example, when they've decided to go way off consensus.

I'd also add that they are, as far as I know, the only service that NFL teams consult that actually publishes there draft information. Whether they're right or not (and let's be honest, the best drafters are around 50%) there is value in actually putting something on the record.

 

[GleefulGary]

I'd also add that they are, as far as I know, the only service that NFL teams consult that actually publishes there draft information. Whether they're right or not (and let's be honest, the best drafters are around 50%) there is value in actually putting something on the record.

NFL teams do not use PFF as consultants for scouting reports. They use them to collect data, like snaps in man, zone, cover 1, 2, 3, 4, etc etc.

If NFL teams wanted their scouting expertise, they'd just hire them.

 

[Dantés]

I'd also add that they are, as far as I know, the only service that NFL teams consult that actually publishes there draft information. Whether they're right or not (and let's be honest, the best drafters are around 50%) there is value in actually putting something on the record.

NFL teams contracted with PFF for data before their draft division even existed.

 

[Packer Fan in SD]

I've seen quotes from Gute recently talking about how he learned a lot from Ron Wolf. Seems like he's also learned to make the same mistakes as Wolf. Wolf's biggest regret was not getting Favre enough weapons.

But he also traded a first for an untested third string QB that was in the coaches doghouse.

I could care less what the Packers wanted, I just think it's silly to draft a position in round 2 that you probably aren't going to give a second contract, ESPECIALLY when a team already has one of the top 6 or 7 RBs in the NFL on the roster. You're talking about spending a 2nd round pick on a guy that will most likely be a starter for the team for 3 years. Compare that to a CB, OT, WR, pass rusher who, if they're good, will be on the team for a decade.

It seems like a smart move if you have one year left on your starter that won’t see a second contract. You now have several more years of play from a no second contract position.

 

[tynimiller]

PFF would rate Wolf a very successful GM lol

 

[GleefulGary]

Good grief. Can you imagine if Twitter existed when Wolf traded for Favre?! Would've been majestic.

 

[OldSchool101]

It’ll be interesting to see what the breakdown is after Jones’ carries.

1. I can see Dillon initially being used more as the season progresses. So that could indicate Jamaal still being used more in a #2 role that first quarter of the season, gradually phasing Dillon into the #2 RB role as the season reaches quarter #2.

2. I see Dillon getting an early role in short yardage situations and splitting the workload there with Jones. Dillon could also be featured in goal line or 3rd-4th n short situation early on.

3. It’s also possible Jones’ role in the passing game becomes more emphasized. Which would allow for Dillon to get some additional snaps as Jones rushing workload is very slightly diminished.

4. Dillon’s snap count could conceivably be split with Jones more evenly in December and beyond, while Jamaal’s role would be diminished.

There’s also a couple important questions.

1. Will GB’s increasing usage of Dillon impact Jones rushing/passing/TD totals from 2019. In particular that big TD # Jones had last year?
2. Will it affect Jones FA value enough for GB to possibly retain both RB’s going forward?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Why don't you think Dillon will have any success?

Because PFF told you so!

I repeat it once again for you as it seems you have a hard time understanding it. Not a single expert considered Dillon a day two pick.

I would have been fine with selecting him on day three of the draft as the Packers needed more depth at running back entering the draft but there was no reason to pick any that early.

With Jones being the starter Dillon will have to move past Williams to receive any significant playing time. I'm not certain that will happen this offseason, therefore I highly doubt he will have an impact in 2020.

Thanks John Madden.....and Aaron Jones is not Barry Sanders either...LOL

I wasn't the one comparing Dillon to Henry.

Based on...?

This is funny to me. I say that he's similar to Henry (not identical-- similar) and offer lots of reasons why I think that's true.

People reply basically saying "nuh uh!" with nothing to support their opinion.

Aside of wishful thinking you haven't offered any valid reason to make me believe Dillon will have a similar impact as Henry in the NFL.

The only one who really has any validation is Jeremiah.

Why wouldn't Dillon help in regards to play action and offensive versatility? Some details, please.

Jeremiah had both Dillon and Deguara as day three picks as well.

First of all Dillon won't receive a significant amount of snaps. In addition opponents won't put an extra defender in the box or have a safety or linebacker overcommit to defending the run because of him.

Unfortunately Rodgers will still not have a more talented receiving corps to throw to on play action.

If Jonathan Taylor is #80 for you, and Dillon isn't even top 250, you're bad at this.

Do you think that Dillon is as good as Taylor???

 

[GleefulGary]

I repeat it once again for you as it seems you have a hard time understanding it. Not a single expert considered Dillon a day two pick.



First of all Dillon won't receive a significant amount of snaps. In addition opponents won't put an extra defender in the box or have a safety or linebacker overcommit to defending the run because of him.

Unfortunately Rodgers will still not have a more talented receiving corps to throw to on play action.



Do you think that Dillon is as good as Taylor???

Well your first claim isn't true at all. Brian Gutekunst viewed Dillon as a day 2 pick, obviously. I think an NFL GM can be considered am expert. I mean, he's not employed by PFF, but I still think he's okay. Now since you have a hard time understanding, I do not care what the media experts think. They don't know ****.


Defenses don't put extra defenders in the box for Aaron Jones. He must not impact play action either.

The gap between Dillon and Jonathan Taylor is not much.

You are, of course, entitled to your own opinion. What irks me, is that outside of you saying the picks are bad, and that the media doesn't like the picks, you haven't explained any of it! Can you explain why you think Taylor is far and above Dillon? Good grief, offer something other than what you parrot! Maybe watch the players. They're not bad.

 

[GleefulGary]

I asked why you think Dillon won't have success, and your answer was legitimately "Nobody had him as a day 2 pick." That's just dumb.

I've seen players that people had as top 10 picks flame out, I've seen players that were drafted multiple rounds "early" that were good. The draft is hard. The media "experts" aren't all knowing.

 

[tynimiller]

I asked why you think Dillon won't have success, and your answer was legitimately "Nobody had him as a day 2 pick." That's just dumb.

I've seen players that people had as top 10 picks flame out, I've seen players that were drafted multiple rounds "early" that were good. The draft is hard. The media "experts" aren't all knowing.

Nuh ugh...only when their opinion aligns with mine are they right DUH!

 

[Dantés]

Aside of wishful thinking you haven't offered any valid reason to make me believe Dillon will have a similar impact as Henry in the NFL.

Then you're ignoring it or not paying attention.

Henry:

• 6'3" 247#
• 4.54 forty
• 37" vert; 130" broad
• 7.20 3C
• Huge tackle breaking runner with limited CFB receiving work.
• One cut ability to see the hole and get north/south.
• Dangerous long speed to break off big plays w/ head of steam.
• Short yardage bully.
• 2nd round pick.

Dillon:

• 6'0" 247#
• 4.53 forty
• 41" vert; 131" broad
• 7.19 3C
• Huge tackle breaking runner with limited CFB receiving work.
• One cut ability to see the hold and get north/south.
• Dangerous long speed to break off big plays w/head of steam.
• Short yardage bully.
• 2nd round pick.

Physically, they are about as close as two prospects can be. Their usage in college was extremely similar. Their skill sets in terms of running style and long speed are comparable. They share weaknesses in terms of initial acceleration and elusiveness in tight quarters. They aren't identical, but it's a natural comparison for these reasons and more. People freak out that this means Dillon must be an elite prospect, but Henry was by no means considered an elite prospect.

So keep your "wishful thinking" ******** to yourself. You've offered nothing to support your opinion and apparently ignored everything I've already said to explain why I see this comparison. If you don't know enough about it to even offer something of substance, then I'd be happy to just not hear from you.

 

[tynimiller]

Then you're ignoring it or not paying attention.

Henry:

• 6'3" 247#
• 4.54 forty
• 37" vert; 130" broad
• 7.20 3C
• Huge tackle breaking runner with limited CFB receiving work.
• One cut ability to see the hole and get north/south.
• Dangerous long speed to break off big plays w/ head of steam.
• Short yardage bully.
• 2nd round pick.

Dillon:

• 6'0" 247#
• 4.53 forty
• 41" vert; 131" broad
• 7.19 3C
• Huge tackle breaking runner with limited CFB receiving work.
• One cut ability to see the hold and get north/south.
• Dangerous long speed to break off big plays w/head of steam.
• Short yardage bully.
• 2nd round pick.

Physically, they are about as close as two prospects can be. Their usage in college was extremely similar. Their skill sets in terms of running style and long speed are comparable. They share weaknesses in terms of initial acceleration and elusiveness in tight quarters. They aren't identical, but it's a natural comparison for these reasons and more. People freak out that this means Dillon must be an elite prospect, but Henry was by no means considered an elite prospect.

So keep your "wishful thinking" ******** to yourself. You've offered nothing to support your opinion and apparently ignored everything I've already said to explain why I see this comparison. If you don't know enough about it to even offer something of substance, then I'd be happy to just not hear from you.

Hang on...but how did their PFF grading compare?


LMAO!!!!!


Also, I'm sorry but did you miss there is 3 INCHES difference between these two guys!!!! I mean I don't know what world you live in but 3 more inches is a HUGE difference...in some things. LMAO

 

[tynimiller]

3 Year College Stats
Attemps 602 - Rushing Yards 3,591 - YPC 6.0 - TDs 42

3 Year College Stats
Attempts 845 - Rushing Yards 4,382 - YPC 5.2 - TDs 38


Which is which is the question....

 

[Dantés]

Do you think that Dillon is as good as Taylor???

Is that what I said, Captain? Are you trying to misunderstand or just not capable of following?

Taylor is a high end athlete, he had a lot of mileage in college, he gained a ton of his yards after contact, and he was used minimally as a receiving threat.

Dillon is a high end athlete, he had a lot of mileage in college, he gained a ton of his yards after contact, and he was used minimally as a receiving thrreat.

Now PFF and clearly most analysts felt that Taylor is the more talented runner. I have no issue with that. So wherever they rank him, it makes sense that Dillon would be ranked somewhere behind them.

But the strengths and weaknesses are similar enough to the point that if you like one, you should like the other, even if it's to a lesser degree.

Thus ranking one at 80 and the other isn't even on your board demonstrates an inconsistency.

If they think Taylor is RB3 in this class and Dillon is like RB20, that says a lot more about them then it does about him.

 

[Dantés]

Hang on...but how did their PFF grading compare?


LMAO!!!!!


Also, I'm sorry but did you miss there is 3 INCHES difference between these two guys!!!! I mean I don't know what world you live in but 3 more inches is a HUGE difference...in some things. LMAO

PFF didn't even really like Henry coming out of Alabama. He was 95th overall on their big board that year.

 

[GleefulGary]

PFF didn't even really like Henry coming out of Alabama. He was 95th overall on their big board that year.

More importantly, where did they have Andy Isabella?

 

[Mavster]

To summarize this entire thread for everyone:

PFF bad. Dillon good.

 

[tynimiller]

To summarize this entire thread for everyone:

PFF bad. Dillon good.

Whoa whoa whoa...you forgot that Dillon except for three inches purely in measurables or stats Dillon and Henry are about as similar two guys can get. (disclosure as some don't follow well, this is not a declaration that Dillon will be what Henry is at the next level, hence the purely in measurables and stats).

 

[Sunshinepacker]

It seems like a smart move if you have one year left on your starter that won’t see a second contract. You now have several more years of play from a no second contract position.

3 years of play for a second round pick vs a decade or more from a second round pick. One of those options is better than the other.