Dillon.......keeping defenses honest.

[GleefulGary]

I don't see how LaFleur's desire to bring some balance to the offense or his system in general fails to play to Rodgers strengths. Seems to me that that's a pretty good idea for a 36 year old quarterback.

Allowing Rodgers to be more effective in PA is a losing effort.

 

[easyk83]

I don't see how LaFleur's desire to bring some balance to the offense or his system in general fails to play to Rodgers strengths. Seems to me that that's a pretty good idea for a 36 year old quarterback.

To me this pick was about making the passing game that we more effective in addition to boosting our rushing threat. Dillon more than either Jones or Williams fits and compliments Aaron Rodgers who frankly would line up every snap in a spread offense if given the opportunity. From watching Dillon what becomes apparent it that he has great acceleration for any back, that 132 inch broad jump shows up in games. He is huge strong and he runs with authority and he really does this out of single back spread sets.

Defense in the NFL is about conceding what you can live with conceding. Though Aaron Jones is a good back with him on the field in a single back offense a DC can opt to spread his line out drop his safeties back and keep his LBs back in coverage too. It's well known that Rodgers gets impatient with the run game and tends to start checking to passes even when it doesnt make sense. So you can dare the Packers to run and yes Jones will get his yards but odds are the gains will be what you can live with and worth the trade off in order to limit Rodgers pressure him and cover up his preferred routes. With Dillon you flat out cannot do this. You simply have to keep your DL in tight and bunched because you cannot allow a 250 pound stallion to gallop into your secondary at will. Dillon could be a guy who slows down the rush and creates space in the passing game just by being out there on the field. Which should in turn help receivers get open faster and or allow longer routes like double moves to develop.

 

[Dantés]

A league leading 70.3% of the Packers' rushing attempts last year were inside zone or outside zone rushes.

It's unclear what Dillon would do as an OZ rusher. He ran mostly gap scheme in college, but his skill set as a one-cut back is ideally suited to IZ. I think that's where we see most of his usage.

However, it should be said that the Titans use Derrick Henry in OZ quite a bit, and he's really effective in it. If people don't like the Derrick Henry comp, tough. Suck it up. That's who Dillon is most similar to in the league at the moment.

 

[Dantés]

Interesting nugget I picked up in an espn article from Kevin Seifert:

There is a difference between employing the zone-run scheme and imposing a run-based offense. As it has turned out, the 49ers and Vikings have leaned more on the run than the Packers have. Perhaps the best way to assess those values is to eliminate playcalls from the fourth quarter, which can skew wildly based on game situations. Viewed from that perspective, the Packers have run the ball 238 times in the first three quarters of games, the third-fewest in the league -- hardly a shock given Rodgers' stature and career history. However, the 49ers (306) rank No. 2, behind only the Ravens (353), while the Vikings (297) are tied for No. 3. Conversely, the 49ers and Vikings both have among the NFL's 10 fewest dropbacks during the first three quarters; the Packers have the 11th-most.

So while the Packers were 13th in rushing attempts overall, apparently they were 30th through the first three quarters. That statistic is telling in one way and deceiving in another.

First off, just the obvious, this article was written before the final two games of the season, in which the Packers ran the ball a lot (62 times between the two games).

Secondly, Rodgers skews the Q4 stats because 26 of his 46 rush attempts were in that quarter. The running backs also saw more work in Q4, but not by that dramatic a margin:

Q1: 57 (Jones); 17 (Williams)
Q2: 54 (Jones); 34 (Williams)
Q3: 62 (Jones); 21 (Williams)
Q4: 63 (Jones); 35 (Williams)

But the telling part is that while the Packers made a lot of progress away from McCarthy's absurdly imbalanced offense (34/66 run/pass! Are you kidding Mike?), they were still a lot more pass happy than what season totals would make it appear and a lot less run heavy than you want to be in this offense.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

A league leading 70.3% of the Packers' rushing attempts last year were inside zone or outside zone rushes.

It's unclear what Dillon would do as an OZ rusher. He ran mostly gap scheme in college, but his skill set as a one-cut back is ideally suited to IZ. I think that's where we see most of his usage.

However, it should be said that the Titans use Derrick Henry in OZ quite a bit, and he's really effective in it. If people don't like the Derrick Henry comp, tough. Suck it up. That's who Dillon is most similar to in the league at the moment.

I watch every Tennessee game, I've watched a lot of Dillon's tape. They are similar in that they are big guys who move well. But it's pretty lazy comparison if you're projecting scheme fits.

 

[Dantés]

I watch every Tennessee game, I've watched a lot of Dillon's tape. They are similar in that they are big guys who move well. But it's pretty lazy comparison if you're projecting scheme fits.

No comp is perfect and no two players are identical, but Dillon is a lot like Henry in his one cut style. He has the skill set to execute zone runs in a very similar way to Henry. This is not just a size/athleticism comp, though that on its own is pretty compelling.

People seem to balk at this comparison as though it's being asserted that Dillon is an elite RB prospect, or that he is being projected to being an elite running in the pros. They forget that Henry was viewed in much the same way Dillon was before his draft. Many of the same weaknesses were noted at that time. There's a reason he ended up in the 2nd round.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't see how LaFleur's desire to bring some balance to the offense or his system in general fails to play to Rodgers strengths. Seems to me that that's a pretty good idea for a 36 year old quarterback.

I'm fine with having a balanced offense but there's no reason to ignore the lack of talent on the receiving corps but instead use their first three picks on a quarterback, running back and fullback while not having a dire need at any of the positions.

Oh I do? I haven't ever mentioned Henry in regards to Dillon. I didn't even like the pick, man.

I do think Dillon is a good player, and I think PFF not having him in their top 250 is mind blowingly stupid.

Don't lie, okay?

I'm sorry, it was Dantes who compared Dillon to Henry. It seems you get out of your way to defend the selection of him even while admitting that you didn't like it for some reason though.

While PFF ranked him worse than most other media outlets there wasn't a single one grading him as a second rounder as far as I'm aware.

Allowing Rodgers to be more effective in PA is a losing effort.

The Packers passing offense would greatly benefit from improving on play action passes. I don't think Dillon will help much in that regard though.

If people don't like the Derrick Henry comp, tough. Suck it up. That's who Dillon is most similar to in the league at the moment.

Unfortunately I don't believe that Dillon will come close to having as much success as Henry at the NFL level.

 

[GleefulGary]

Why don't you think Dillon will have any success?

Because PFF told you so!

 

[tynimiller]

Unfortunately I don't believe that Dillon will come close to having as much success as Henry at the NFL level.

Thanks John Madden.....and Aaron Jones is not Barry Sanders either...LOL

 

[Dantés]

Unfortunately I don't believe that Dillon will come close to having as much success as Henry at the NFL level.

Based on...?

This is funny to me. I say that he's similar to Henry (not identical-- similar) and offer lots of reasons why I think that's true.

People reply basically saying "nuh uh!" with nothing to support their opinion.

I would argue this is because they're not actually looking into Dillon, they're just throwing a fit that it was Dillon and not a WR.

 

[tynimiller]

I would argue this is because they're not actually looking into Dillon, they're just throwing a fit that it was Dillon and not a WR.

WE HAVE A WINNER....what does he win Al????

 

[GleefulGary]

I'm sorry, it was Dantes who compared Dillon to Henry. It seems you get out of your way to defend the selection of him even while admitting that you didn't like it for some reason though.

While PFF ranked him worse than most other media outlets there wasn't a single one grading him as a second rounder as far as I'm aware.



The Packers passing offense would greatly benefit from improving on play action passes. I don't think Dillon will help much in that regard though.

Several things.

No, I wasn't, and really I'm still not a huge fan of taking a RB as early as we did. There's a few factors here though. RB's went off the board earlier than expected. There really weren't any YAC WR's available at the selection that wouldn't have been a huge reach. I'd rather have Dillon in the 2nd than Duvernay in the 2nd. Antonio Gibson was available, and I'd probably prefer him, but again, I'm just a random guy. I don't know what the Packers know.

I'm not defending the pick as much as I am defending the player. I didn't love the pick, but Dillon is a good player. Anybody not recognizing that is just being blind. Sorry, but it's true. He's a unique talent.

As far as media rankings, I legitimately could not give a crap. I have seen so many teams "win" and "lose" the draft, and having the opposite happen. The draft is really freaking hard. NFL teams miss. The media misses much, much, more. So forgive me for not caring what the media thinks about the draft. If they knew ****, they'd be employed by the NFL. The only one who really has any validation is Jeremiah. Lance Z is better than most, and Duke Manyweather is the only person to listen to as far as OL. And that's it.


Why wouldn't Dillon help in regards to play action and offensive versatility? Some details, please.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm just curious does anyone remember what PFF thought of Davante Adams or Aaron Jones coming into the draft? I honestly have zero clue...

 

[Dantés]

Something else I came across this morning that helps explain the Dillon pick.

Last year, Aaron Jones played 55% of the snaps at RB in games for which he was active. That was 22nd in the NFL (in terms of % snaps for the RB1 on the team). And I would say that his work load last year was right at the top end of what you want to give that type of player.

So basically in an ideal Aaron Jones season, he's only giving you half the snaps. That means that unless you add at RB, almost half the snaps are going to Williams, who's JAG in my opinion.

 

[Dantés]

I'm just curious does anyone remember what PFF thought of Davante Adams or Aaron Jones coming into the draft? I honestly have zero clue...

They weren't doing draft coverage when Adams came out. Jones was #285 on their big board in 2017.

These were some of their outlier opinions from that season:

• Derek Barnett at #3 overall
• Jordan Willis at #15
• Malik McDowell at #21
• Jourdan Lewis at #24
• Jojo Mathis at #46

 

[Patriotplayer90]

RBs are always going to be way undervalued on PFFs board.

 

[Dantés]

RBs are always going to be way undervalued on PFFs board.

That's true, but even so they screwed up the Dillon ranking.

If Jonathan Taylor is #80 for you, and Dillon isn't even top 250, you're bad at this.

They told the world that undrafted James Robinson of FCS Illinois State is a better prospect than A.J. Dillon.

I like PFF for metrics and I will definitely hear them out on what they think of players, but I don't think they have a clue what they're doing when it comes to the draft. There's no reason that they should be taken any more seriously than other amateur outlets like TDN and the like.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Opposing cornerbacks beware.
He is as big as the linebackers trying to tackle him.... They insist on this one cut zone scheme. And now they have a big fullback sizes running back that runs a 4.5 40!? Lol. One cut and pound it is the plan. The 4.5 speed should be enough to make them pay if he breaks through. I'm hoping he is one of those "faster than his 40" types of guys. Considering he got his 248 pounds across the line in 4.51 seconds. He may surprise with another gear??? Like Jordy surprised...
Even if he doesn't... I guarantee we didn't draft him for his speed. If I remember he had a 41 " vert and 130+" broad ... I was like huh!?
Didn't draft him for that either. Although his burst is going to be impressive.
He is a tank. He will get the hard yard .He will finish the runs. And he will be able to take the pounding of 20+ carries a game if we need... That imo is why we drafted him... One cut and point it . 250 pound torpedo.....

Strategically. It's going to open up our entire offense. You think those quick CBS are going to be effective against our new monster rb? Doubt it. You think the safety/lb tweeners are going to be effective? Eh..... I like our chances.....


Big burst. Big guy. Big speed.... Going to force defenses to play bigger....

That will open up the field for #12... Big time .

All good points. This guy will only need one cut. No one is gonna arm tackle him and it’ll likely require 2 or 3 defenders to get him down as he carries the pile for another 4 or 5 yards.

I know the 40” vertical jump may not mean much on the field, but WTF! How does ANY guy standing 6’ and weighing 248 lbs. jump 40”, much less run a 4.5 40? That’s off the charts athleticism and speed. I think there are WRs taller and lighter than Dillon that don’t get near those numbers.

 

[Dantés]

So what could Dillon's workload on the ground look like as the RB2 in 2020.

Last season, the Packers totaled 984 run attempts or pass attempts as a team. I will work based on that figure. The run/pass ratio was 42% and 58% respectively, which was up from 34% and 66% in 2018. Based on LaFleur's background and what the draft class seemed to signal, I am projecting that the trend towards balance will continue, landing at something like 46% run and 54% pass.

46% run of the 984 total would mean 453 rushing attempts.

Rodgers scrambles accounted for 43 attempts in 2018 and 46 in 2019, so we will project 45 in 2020, which would leave 408.

Aaron Jones is extremely talented, but best suited to a lower work load than what he saw in 2019, especially considering his heavy usage in the passing game. I would guess that taking a RB in the 2nd was partially motivated by a desire to keep him from being over-used. So I will project 215 carries for Jones, which leaves 193.

Last year, there was a smattering of what I will call "random attempts" that came from guys like Tra Carson, Tim Boyle, WR's, etc. These sub 10 carry types collectively accounted for 22 carries. If we assume 20 this season, that leaves 173.

Jamaal Williams is the most difficult part of this exercise for me. Last year, he had 107 carries, but he was not inspiring with them. Again, the drafting of a 2nd round running back seems to signal a dissatisfaction with the depth behind Jones. So I am going to project a much smaller role of 25 carries in 2020 based on what I think the team is saying with their draft decisions.

So that would leave 148 carries for Dillon, assuming that he's showing himself worthy in camp as the RB2 as we all should probably expect. So what would 148 carries amount to? Here are the yardage totals along the YPC spectrum from the disappointing 4.0 to the unrealistic 5.0.

4.0: 592
4.1: 607
4.2: 622
4.3: 636
4.4: 651
4.5: 666
4.6: 681
4.7: 696
4.8: 710
4.9: 725
5.0: 740

 

[Patriotplayer90]

That's true, but even so they screwed up the Dillon ranking.

If Jonathan Taylor is #80 for you, and Dillon isn't even top 250, you're bad at this.

They told the world that undrafted James Robinson of FCS Illinois State is a better prospect than A.J. Dillon.

I like PFF for metrics and I will definitely hear them out on what they think of players, but I don't think they have a clue what they're doing when it comes to the draft. There's no reason that they should be taken any more seriously than other amateur outlets like TDN and the like.

They look at everything on a per play basis, not taking into account that even an average RB on most teams is going to touch the ball far more than any WR will. I think the reasoning behind the pick is that Dillon's impact goes beyond simple YPC and potentially impacts the PA game to such a degree. It's all theoretical until we actually see it, but he's not a guy that defenses want to see get past the first level and could lead to some overcommitment from the LBs and safeties

 

[Heyjoe4]

Dillon didn't get a lot of receiving opportunities at BC, but he caught the ball cleaning when he got the chance. He looked good running routes and catching passes at the combine, and evidently our area scout that had BC said that he looked good as a receiver in practice.

If he is genuinely a dual threat back, then this pick will provide better value than if he's just the early down hammer that he's perceived to be by many.

Yeah I think that, unlike Eddy Lacy, Gluten wanted a two-dimensional back, maybe not as proficient as Jones, but close. And with that speed, ya gotta believe they see him catching some balls. And if his vertical jump translates to the pro game - well that’s a potential asset as well.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's a fifth round back at best.

Probably. Do you think Dillon would have been around in the 5th round? I think he’s gonna catch his share of passes too. For what it’s worth, I had reservations about taking him in rd 2 as well. Still seems like a stretch.

 

[Heyjoe4]

They look at everything on a per play basis, not taking into account that even an average RB on most teams is going to touch the ball far more than any WR will. I think the reasoning behind the pick is that Dillon's impact goes beyond simple YPC and potentially impacts the PA game to such a degree. It's all theoretical until we actually see it, but he's not a guy that defenses want to see get past the first level and could lead to some overcommitment from the LBs and safeties

Good points. He’s gonna be hard to tackle once he reaches the secondary, especially with that speed.

 

[Heyjoe4]

So what could Dillon's workload on the ground look like as the RB2 in 2020.

Last season, the Packers totaled 984 run attempts or pass attempts as a team. I will work based on that figure. The run/pass ratio was 42% and 58% respectively, which was up from 34% and 66% in 2018. Based on LaFleur's background and what the draft class seemed to signal, I am projecting that the trend towards balance will continue, landing at something like 46% run and 54% pass.

46% run of the 984 total would mean 453 rushing attempts.

Rodgers scrambles accounted for 43 attempts in 2018 and 46 in 2019, so we will project 45 in 2020, which would leave 408.

Aaron Jones is extremely talented, but best suited to a lower work load than what he saw in 2019, especially considering his heavy usage in the passing game. I would guess that taking a RB in the 2nd was partially motivated by a desire to keep him from being over-used. So I will project 215 carries for Jones, which leaves 193.

Last year, there was a smattering of what I will call "random attempts" that came from guys like Tra Carson, Tim Boyle, WR's, etc. These sub 10 carry types collectively accounted for 22 carries. If we assume 20 this season, that leaves 173.

Jamaal Williams is the most difficult part of this exercise for me. Last year, he had 107 carries, but he was not inspiring with them. Again, the drafting of a 2nd round running back seems to signal a dissatisfaction with the depth behind Jones. So I am going to project a much smaller role of 25 carries in 2020 based on what I think the team is saying with their draft decisions.

So that would leave 148 carries for Dillon, assuming that he's showing himself worthy in camp as the RB2 as we all should probably expect. So what would 148 carries amount to? Here are the yardage totals along the YPC spectrum from the disappointing 4.0 to the unrealistic 5.0.

4.0: 592
4.1: 607
4.2: 622
4.3: 636
4.4: 651
4.5: 666
4.6: 681
4.7: 696
4.8: 710
4.9: 725
5.0: 740

Nice breakdown D. Yeah Dillon addresses workload issues with Jones, and underwhelming support from Williams. I’d be happy with the low end of your chart, 592 yards, but think Dillon will come closer to the middle of the chart, so much the better.

 

[GleefulGary]

Probably. Do you think Dillon would have been around in the 5th round? I think he’s gonna catch his share of passes too. For what it’s worth, I had reservations about taking him in rd 2 as well. Still seems like a stretch.

No, he wouldn't have been there in the 5th.