Consider the 49ers running game

[PackinMSP]

And how bad they whooped us.

Good running games win games

 

[jhawk008]

True.. I mean I remember when the Niners ran the ball down the Chiefs throat and won the SB over a pass heavy offense.











O wait....

 

[Steven J. Weissmann]

Memories of the 49ers running all over the Packers defense, leaves me feeling strongly about the need to bulk up the interior of the defense, to stop the run better. That was just embarrassing.

 

[Do7]

True.. I mean I remember when the Niners ran the ball down the Chiefs throat and won the SB over a pass heavy offense.











O wait....

SF abandoned the run against KC. I remember the defensive players saying how relieved they were because they had no answer in stopping their run attack, and were confused as to why they abandoned their run game. Imo had SF ran the ball like they did against us, they would've won in all likeliness.

 

[Fredrik87]

And lets acknowledge the fact that they had Kittle and Juice the best blocking TE & FB running in front as well as a good O-line.
A dominate D and that they ran the ball with Deebo quite a bit as well.

The Niners RB's aren't high draft picks either.

 

[easyk83]

And how bad they whooped us.

Good running games win games

We have a 37 year old quarterback and our running game consists of a very good but oft injured starter and a good backup who is average at best as a primary back. Dillon should upgrade our second offering and give us a guy who projects as a punishing bell cow starter. He should also be able to play as a third down back and in single back sets. What I like is the prospect of running draws with him out of a spread offense. With him on the field Defenses will be forced to bunch their DL together(slowing their pass rush) otherwise he might murder their second and third line defenders. Dillon should slow the rush and help create space in the passing game just by being on the field.

Rodgers has been bringing up Elway's late career success, he's going to have to lean on a running game if its going to work for him.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

Best strategy is to draft A project QB in the first instead of Patrick Queen.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yes, lets consider the 49ers.

SF just drafted Aiyuk in the 1st. round and Samuel and Hurd in the 2nd. and 3rd., respectively, last year, and Pettis in the 2nd. the year before that.

The draft status of their RBs last season, with Pro Day/Combine stats linked:

Mostert - UDFA, on his 7th. team in 4 years
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=109374&DraftYear=2015

Breida - UDFA
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=126718&DraftYear=2017

Coleman - 3rd. round by Atlanta, signed to a 2 year, $8.5 mil second contract
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=122467&DraftYear=2015

These are small, fast backs. As far as athletic measureables, the first two illustrate that can be found in the UDFA ranks.

Now consider the SF O-Line last season, perhaps the best run blocking unit in the league. It happens to include three 1st. rounders and a 2nd.

So, the idea that the Packers are in any way emulating this approach is unfounded. The better comparison based on the most recent evidence, which others have mentioned, is LaFluer's 2018 Titans.

 

[757Niner]

Yes, lets consider the 49ers.

SF just drafted Aiyuk in the 1st. round and Samuel and Hurd in the 2nd. and 3rd., respectively, last year, and Pettis in the 2nd. the year before that.

The draft status of their RBs last season, with Pro Day/Combine stats linked:

Mostert - UDFA, on his 7th. team in 4 years
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=109374&DraftYear=2015

Breida - UDFA
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=126718&DraftYear=2017

Coleman - 3rd. round by Atlanta, signed to a 2 year, $8.5 mil second contract
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=122467&DraftYear=2015

These are small, fast backs. As far as athletic measureables, the first two illustrate that can be found in the UDFA ranks.

Now consider the SF O-Line last season, perhaps the best run blocking unit in the league. It happens to include three 1st. rounders and a 2nd.

So, the idea that the Packers are in any way emulating this approach is unfounded. The better comparison based on the most recent evidence, which others have mentioned, is LaFluer's 2018 Titans.

Yea its more than just allocating resources@RB. Shanny firmly believes in running the ball. And he builds his personnel....from the O-line on down to do so. I know a lot of coaches say they are committed to running the ball. But few are consistent with it and tie it into their scheme.

I really like the Dillion pick though. Its not that he's a talented RB but its the type of RB he is. A in-between-the-tackles physical back that will just wear down a defense. A guy who will be much harder to tackle in the 4th quarter than he was in the 1st & 2nd. Rodgers needs that kind guy to allow him to pick his spots during critical drives. Your play-action is only as good as your run game production in those moments..

 

[Mondio]

Yea its more than just allocating resources@RB. Shanny firmly believes in running the ball. And he builds his personnel....from the O-line on down to do so. I know a lot of coaches say they are committed to running the ball. But few are consistent with it and tie it into their scheme.

I really like the Dillion pick though. Its not that he's a talented RB but its the type of RB he is. A in-between-the-tackles physical back that will just wear down a defense. A guy who will be much harder to tackle in the 4th quarter than he was in the 1st & 2nd. Rodgers needs that kind guy to allow him to pick his spots during critical drives. Your play-action is only as good as your run game production in those moments..

Someone gets it

 

[Fredrik87]

Yes, lets consider the 49ers.

SF just drafted Aiyuk in the 1st. round and Samuel and Hurd in the 2nd. and 3rd., respectively, last year, and Pettis in the 2nd. the year before that.

The draft status of their RBs last season, with Pro Day/Combine stats linked:

Mostert - UDFA, on his 7th. team in 4 years
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=109374&DraftYear=2015

Breida - UDFA
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=126718&DraftYear=2017

Coleman - 3rd. round by Atlanta, signed to a 2 year, $8.5 mil second contract
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=122467&DraftYear=2015

These are small, fast backs. As far as athletic measureables, the first two illustrate that can be found in the UDFA ranks.

Now consider the SF O-Line last season, perhaps the best run blocking unit in the league. It happens to include three 1st. rounders and a 2nd.

So, the idea that the Packers are in any way emulating this approach is unfounded. The better comparison based on the most recent evidence, which others have mentioned, is LaFluer's 2018 Titans.

Not to mention the fact kyle juszczyk and kittle are both elite run blockers.

 

[Dantés]

Yes, lets consider the 49ers.

SF just drafted Aiyuk in the 1st. round and Samuel and Hurd in the 2nd. and 3rd., respectively, last year, and Pettis in the 2nd. the year before that.

The draft status of their RBs last season, with Pro Day/Combine stats linked:

Mostert - UDFA, on his 7th. team in 4 years
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=109374&DraftYear=2015

Breida - UDFA
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=126718&DraftYear=2017

Coleman - 3rd. round by Atlanta, signed to a 2 year, $8.5 mil second contract
http://www.draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=122467&DraftYear=2015

These are small, fast backs. As far as athletic measureables, the first two illustrate that can be found in the UDFA ranks.

Now consider the SF O-Line last season, perhaps the best run blocking unit in the league. It happens to include three 1st. rounders and a 2nd.

So, the idea that the Packers are in any way emulating this approach is unfounded. The better comparison based on the most recent evidence, which others have mentioned, is LaFluer's 2018 Titans.

It's not unfounded. It's exactly what LaFleur is doing.

They took Deguara to be their version of Kyle Juszczyk.

In terms of running back investment, you conveniently ignored that they spent 4/30 on McKinnon.

In terms of running back mold, it's not about size, it's about style. Backs of various shapes and sizes can thrive in a zone scheme as long as they have the vision, patience, and ability to make the cut and get downhill at the right time. No doubt LaFleur's experience in Tennessee made him fond of the idea of having a back like Henry in this offense. But

As for their offensive line, their top players in snap counts players last year were Laken Tomlinson (traded for a 5th round pick), Mike Person (journeyman originally drafted in the 7th), Weston Richburg (high end FA acquisition), Mike McGlinchey (1st round pick), and Justin Skule (rookie 6th round pick).

And the last comment makes no sense. LaFleur is a disciple of the same offense that Shanahan operates. In his one season in Tennessee he ran... that offense. It's the same offense he brought to Green Bay and which he is now trying to collect the ideal personnel for.

 

[PackinMSP]

Dantes

I think you're mostly right. I like the Dillon pick actually.

Not only is it the "style" as you said though but also his body type.

Guys like Eddie Lacy, Stephen Jackson, Jerome Better, etc. There are other guys with similar body types and styles btw.

These guys really "punish" defenses. They literally just "break them down". These kinds of guys tire our and help to close games down...and if you have a speed back (Jones), he can take it to the house when they are worn out pretty easily as well

That said, Dillon has a lot of mileage already and will probably get more lol.

The best bet is to have him and Jones to save them on wear and tear but we may not be able to afford Jones next year. We will see.

 

[757Niner]

It's not unfounded. It's exactly what LaFleur is doing.

They took Deguara to be their version of Kyle Juszczyk.

In terms of running back investment, you conveniently ignored that they spent 4/30 on McKinnon.

In terms of running back mold, it's not about size, it's about style. Backs of various shapes and sizes can thrive in a zone scheme as long as they have the vision, patience, and ability to make the cut and get downhill at the right time. No doubt LaFleur's experience in Tennessee made him fond of the idea of having a back like Henry in this offense. But

As for their offensive line, their top players in snap counts players last year were Laken Tomlinson (traded for a 5th round pick), Mike Person (journeyman originally drafted in the 7th), Weston Richburg (high end FA acquisition), Mike McGlinchey (1st round pick), and Justin Skule (rookie 6th round pick).

And the last comment makes no sense. LaFleur is a disciple of the same offense that Shanahan operates. In his one season in Tennessee he ran... that offense. It's the same offense he brought to Green Bay and which he is now trying to collect the ideal personnel for.

I get what LaFleur & Gute are doing. You have to build the roster to the scheme you hope to employ. One of the first things Shanny & Lynch did was go out and make Juice the highest paid FB in the NFL while most teams where phasing out the position all together.

But while I applaud the Dillion pick, I was left really puzzled with your bookends picks before and after. I get that ARod is getting long in the tooth. But with you poised for another deep playoff run, all while your toughest foe in the division is seemingly regrouping (Vikes), I question the legitimacy of drafting your heir apparent with a premium pick instead of addressing a need elsewhere.

Then you take your version of Juice. Like I said I get it...but the 3rd round?? I understand that coaches/GM get enamored with guys and want to make sure they get them. Nobody knows that more than Niner fans and Lynch's need to appease Shanny with these trade-up for mediocre skill position players that Shanny falls in love with. But I question the eval with that pick as well.

What Juice does physically and skillset-wise could have been found much later. Juice is a phenomenal blocker. Before you get to everything else he does at a high level, you have to start with his effectiveness as a blocker. That sets up the rest of his game. I really don't see that in Deguara. Like that should be the first thing that jumps out in his tape and it doesn't.

And a 3rd round pick is premium pick in my eyes. Not really where I would choose to address my FB/H-Back of the future...but that's just me. We may have found our potential Juice replacement in the 6th round. That's just where I feel the value aligns within our roster currently and should in most cases.

As far as McKinnon, he was really coveted by Shanny for his ability as a receiver, first and foremost. But RB is not a position that he has a history of using any premium draft picks on. History has shown he can coax production out of any type of RB that can be found later in the draft or not even drafted at all.

I do like the emphasis on the O-Line though. That, more than anything else shows that addressing the rushing attack isn't just a talking point. The rest remains to be seen. But I feel as though Gute may have gotten a little too 'cute' in the 1st and 3rd.

 

[Dantés]

I get what LaFleur & Gute are doing. You have to build the roster to the scheme you hope to employ. One of the first things Shanny & Lynch did was go out and make Juice the highest paid FB in the NFL while most teams where phasing out the position all together.

But while I applaud the Dillion pick, I was left really puzzled with your bookends picks before and after. I get that ARod is getting long in the tooth. But with you poised for another deep playoff run, all while your toughest foe in the division is seemingly regrouping (Vikes), I question the legitimacy of drafting your heir apparent with a premium pick instead of addressing a need elsewhere.

Then you take your version of Juice. Like I said I get it...but the 3rd round?? I understand that coaches/GM get enamored with guys and want to make sure they get them. Nobody knows that more than Niner fans and Lynch's need to appease Shanny with these trade-up for mediocre skill position players that Shanny falls in love with. But I question the eval with that pick as well.

What Juice does physically and skillset-wise could have been found much later. Juice is a phenomenal blocker. Before you get to everything else he does at a high level, you have to start with his effectiveness as a blocker. That sets up the rest of his game. I really don't see that in Deguara. Like that should be the first thing that jumps out in his tape and it doesn't.

And a 3rd round pick is premium pick in my eyes. Not really where I would choose to address my FB/H-Back of the future...but that's just me. We may have found our potential Juice replacement in the 6th round. That's just where I feel the value aligns within our roster currently and should in most cases.

As far as McKinnon, he was really coveted by Shanny for his ability as a receiver, first and foremost. But RB is not a position that he has a history of using any premium draft picks on. History has shown he can coax production out of any type of RB that can be found later in the draft or not even drafted at all.

I do like the emphasis on the O-Line though. That, more than anything else shows that addressing the rushing attack isn't just a talking point. The rest remains to be seen. But I feel as though Gute may have gotten a little too 'cute' in the 1st and 3rd.

Yeah, I remember when they did that they caught a lot of flak for paying so much for a "fullback." People seem to understand why now. In 2020 cap dollars, they gave him 6M/season.

I think it's fair to question the legitimacy of taking Love instead of a complementary piece. My speculation is that taking Love was one of their scenarios and that they went for it once SF traded up and took Aiyuk. But yeah, I question it! The only conclusion I can draw is that they think Love can become the next franchise QB, and if they're right it will have been well worth it. I guess we will see. If Gutekunst's comments are to be believed, the receivers who he believed could make an immediate impact for Rodgers were gone by the time they selected. Given that six went, I suspect that he's being honest.

I wouldn't think that the 3rd round is the right place to take an H-Back either, but I also didn't think giving a pretty significant contract to one made sense... until it did.

The offense in general, going back to Kyle's dad and further, has never needed to invest in elite running backs. Rather they find guys that can execute what the offense calls for, and the scheme makes them productive because it works. That said, we have seen Shanahan invest in guys who he believes can do that especially well. The Falcons spent a 3rd on Coleman while he was OC, and he clearly must have approved since he brought Coleman to SF when he got the chance. And of course, they paid McKinnon a pretty heft sum for a running back. Those aren't wild investments, but neither is pick #62.

I also think that LaFleur's experience in Tennessee with Henry influenced his interest in Dillon. He unlocked something with Henry in the last four games of 2018. 87 carries, 585 yards, 6.7 YPC. I think he saw what a one cut runner with that kind of size/speed profile could do if he clicked in the offense. Dillon isn't Henry identically, but he's similar.

 

[PackAttack12]

Well if a 49ers running back is gonna go for 220 and 4 TD's against us in next year's NFC Championship Game, it likely won't be Raheem Mostert. He's requested a trade from the 49ers, per Ian Rapoport.

 

[Fredrik87]

Well if a 49ers running back is gonna go for 220 and 4 TD's against us in next year's NFC Championship Game, it likely won't be Raheem Mostert. He's requested a trade from the 49ers, per Ian Rapoport.

I doubt it matters to much to the 9ers it's more Shanahans offense and O-line then the RB's

 

[Sunshinepacker]

And how bad they whooped us.

Good running games win games

Uh, the Packers scored 8 total points in the first game and were shutout for the first half in the second until the 49ers let up after taking a 27-7 lead into the 4th quarter. Yes, their running game was great, but their DEFENSE was the bigger problem.

Good overall teams win games. The Chiefs and Saints sure did well while focusing on the pass.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I get what LaFleur & Gute are doing. You have to build the roster to the scheme you hope to employ. One of the first things Shanny & Lynch did was go out and make Juice the highest paid FB in the NFL while most teams where phasing out the position all together.

I disagree with the idea of using your top 3 draft picks in a draft on players that won't help the team the following year. The goal of running a team is to win, not slowly convert a good team to a potentially different good team over 3 years while not helping the current good team get better. Trying to win a Super Bowl should be more important than scheme.

 

[tynimiller]

I disagree with the idea of using your top 3 draft picks in a draft on players that won't help the team the following year. The goal of running a team is to win, not slowly convert a good team to a potentially different good team over 3 years while not helping the current good team get better. Trying to win a Super Bowl should be more important than scheme.

If someone doesn't think Dillon helps or instantly made our RB room better, I'm sorry that is just asinine. I 100% get and understand if someone didn't like the pick, but let's step back from the ledge a step at least.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

If someone doesn't think Dillon helps or instantly made our RB room better, I'm sorry that is just asinine. I 100% get and understand if someone didn't like the pick, but let's step back from the ledge a step at least.

Aaron Jones is the better RB, correct? Dillon on the field for 15 snaps a game isn't "helping" the team next year in any material way. Please, don't try and sell me on the idea that a backup RB in the 2nd round is a major help to an already good team.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If someone doesn't think Dillon helps or instantly made our RB room better, I'm sorry that is just asinine.

Actually it's asinine to think that a backup running back will help the Packers more than a possible starter at another position who could have been selected in the second round.

 

[tynimiller]

Actually it's asinine to think that a backup running back will help the Packers more than a possible starter at another position who could have been selected in the second round.

You are stating something I did not claim. I have said time and time again I would not have picked Dillon there. Shoot, because of the word twisting I literally made its own thread.

 

[tynimiller]

Aaron Jones is the better RB, correct? Dillon on the field for 15 snaps a game isn't "helping" the team next year in any material way. Please, don't try and sell me on the idea that a backup RB in the 2nd round is a major help to an already good team.

You said it won't help. That is a conclusive statement that he makes zero affect or difference. My rebuttal wasn't discussing whether I felt a different player would have made a bigger 2020 impact, because I do think there were others that would have. I was merely stating Dillon added to the RB group made it better, and that IMO cannot be disputed.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Let's review a bit of the 49ers approach to roster building. While I find these Shanahan-LaFleur comparisons to be tiresome and largely pointless, we can at least come at this from a fresher roster building perspective to put an exclamation point on the nonsense.

• Staley announces his retirement. The 49ers, wasting no time, announce the trade for Trent Williams on the same day, giving up a 5th. round pick and a future 3rd. rounder. Williams is in a contract year and to this point is in rent-a-player status at $12.5 mil.
• On the same day, a very busy 4/25, Breida is traded to Miami for a 5th. round pick.
• You can bet Mostert's trade demand did not come out of the blue. Mostert's demand is very modest--a roughly $2 mil bump to be in line with Coleman. Despite being a 6th. year player, Mostert has very low mileage, only 198 touches over his career. The agent would have asked and the 49ers would have said "no". The 49ers have not put much value on Mostert's services and would not be particularly surprised by the trade demand. They may pay him in the end, or maybe they trade him, but he wasn't even a glimmer of a priority in this offseason.
• The 49ers did not draft a RB. In Shanahan's 4 years in SF, only one RB has been drafted, Joe Williams in the 4th. round of 2017 who never played an NFL game.
• The 49ers approach toward RBs in the Shanahn era is to sign a veteran with some kind of resume as the default #1 and complement him with UDFAs or an undistinguished FA like Mostert--Hyde in 2017, McKinnon in 2018, then Coleman in 2019. None so far this off season with McKinnon highly questionable.
• Sans Mostert, the depth chart would be McKinnon, Coleman, Wilson, and two fresh rookie UDFAs.
• McKinnon is a reminder that not all ACL injuries are created equal. After missing a year, the repaired knee had not come around and he missed a second year with that same injury. The 49ers could not possibly be counting on his services as the lead back. His career may be over altoghether.
• The 49ers traded for Sanders and a 5th. rounder last season in exchange for a 3rd. and 4th. rounder while spending some decent cap on the balance of Sanders contract. That decent expenditure of cap and picks indicates placing a high priority on an established 3rd. receiving weapon for the run.
• The 49ers drafted Aiyuk in the first round to get that 3rd. receiving weapon, another significant investment, a much higher priorty than the non-existant one at RB.
• The 49ers paid Armstead and drafted Kinlaw with their top pick to replace Buckner.
• In Shanahan's four years in SF, his "genius" offense, purportedly run-first in its genetic makeup, has yielded the following records:

2017: 1-10 with Beathard and Hoyer. That was immediately followed by 5-0 with Garoppolo, coming in cold no less. That should have told you something right there.

2018: 1-2 with Garoppolo before tearing an ACL followed by 3-10 with Mullens and Beathard.

2019: 15-4 with Garoppolo. Any thought that 2017 was some triumph of the uncluttered mind has been dispelled. His 2-0 in relief of the suspended Brady would have had to make a twice-uncluttered mind in the first place, not likely.

Summary: 21-6 with Garoppolo; 4-20 without him.
​

You probably have the drift by now, but lets plow forward with the Packer comparison.

• The 49ers made a significant effort to maintain OL dominance with the Williams signing. By contrast the Packers downgraded their O-Line with Bulaga out and Wagner in. This was not an especially good run blocking line, TE, no-FB, no-H-back group at draft time. Even the purported starter at TE in Sternberger is more a slot TE and nothing to write home about in the run blocking game. Rather than think of Deguara as part of a move to a run-first offense it might be better to think of him as simply shoring up an area that was not a strength to begin with that got weaker while expecting some contributions when not playing FB.
• The 49ers emphasis on the trenches continues with the cap-and-draft capital expenditures on the Armstead extention and Kinlaw-for-Buckner. The Packers did nothing to upgrade the D-Line and have not extended Clark.
• Sanders and then Aiyuk, while the RB group has been de-rostered one guy and maybe two, with the #1 or #2 RB in McKinnon highly questionable with no draftees or FA signings to date, together with those contrasting QB records, it should be smacking you upside the head by now that the 49ers believe they should be helping the arm of the guy who brung them. The Packers drafted a RB in the 2nd. round to complement a strong duo while doing nothing to upgrade a questionable receiver group. That does not resemble where the 49ers are heading.
• Recall that Gutekunst pursued Hooper and I actually believe him when he says he wouldn't have expected better productivity from available WRs in the draft than he'll get out of the experienced guys he has. SF evidently disagrees with that thinking. But the Hooper pursuit is the one area where you can find a comparable roster priority of the 49ers, even if unfulfilled, that has nothing to do with run-first. Alas, you can only do what you can afford and that was not Hooper. So, on to Plan B and Plan C.

Instead of barking up the wrong 49er tree, it would be best to turn the page to the LaFleur-Titans comparison, drafting a Henry wannabe and an H-back corrollary to the Titans heavy use of two-TE sets. You should be very careful here. Mariotta was already on the fast track from #2 pick to mediocrity and maybe worse to come. Just as Beathard and Hoyer are not Goroppolo, Mariotta is not Rodgers.

The more plausible scenario is that the #1 and #2 RBs are in contract years, there isn't any intent to sign the #1 given what he would be asking, the #2 could be traded or Dillon spends a year brushing up his game. If you're not expressing interest in extending the incumbents, you might be concerned about business decisions being made on the field which are not necessarily conscious. Some guys do go backwards in their contract years and that may be one reason why. You didn't have any fullbacks or a TE who is much of a blocker other than an old rotational TE and you've lost your very good RT. Gotta do something about that to stay even. You might want an H-back who can play some in-line or even in the slot when not at FB. There was not a lot of faith in Sternberger given Gutekunst was sniffing around Hooper.

So, lets say you shift two snaps per game from the drop back column to the run column, running or targetting RBs in the passing game on 47% of snaps (like last year's 49ers ) instead of the Packers 44% last season. You're still looking at 600+ Rodgers dropbacks. All signs point to Garoppolo's dropbacks going up.

It's a passing league unless you don't have the talent to do it. It would seem Shanhan has come to this realization if he wasn't aware already, just cooking the meal that the ingredients allowed.