First Round Prospect Discussions Specifically

[Dantés]

Great topic. Some thoughts. I have 5 needs by the way. Pick #23.

5. WR- I am not sold on any of them. If they have one of them not only rated higher than 23 but also better than any current player than go for it.
4. LT- I would have trouble passing on Banks or getting Conerly after a trade down.
3. Outside corner. -JA uncertainty, Hobbs being better in the slot are reasons to grab one. IMO neither Barron or Johnson will be there. None of the other guys are 23 pick IMO.
2. DE/Edge- Plenty of talent at 23 and in later rounds. It seemed to me that Hafley prioritized containment over pressure last season. Definitely against mobile QBs. So..................
1. DT- IMO a Hafley D needs inside pressure. I love Harmon for this, but Grant being a 1technique guy pulls him into a virtual tie for me. IMO.

So which of the five would you say has the steepest drop after round 1?

 

[OldSchool101]

2 edges I think have a very low probability of us going after would be M Green RD1 and Sawyer RD2. Basarki did a good wright up on players in relation to Gute thresholds and both scored very low in relation to the types he has pursued as GM. Both have <=32” arms, which by itself would be an anomoly. Green is a sliver over 250lb at 6’3” which is also just outside the bottom threshold we typically like. Now that said, both are consensus selections that are near or just before our neighborhood draft placing. So if our ideal prospects are all gone you never know. Both break protocol in a hard way though.

 

[Schultz]

So which of the five would you say has the steepest drop after round 1?

1. OT.

 

[tynimiller]

The drop from tier one to tier two groups as I see them:

OT - It’s a cliff, like flat sheer cliff if honest.

RB / Edge / S - gentle slope that many wouldn’t even call a hill

WR - steeper slope than above, small hill

CB - For sure considered a steep hill but one that any healthy minded person wouldn’t be intimidated by.

DL - not separating the types within, it is very much a gentle slope as well really.

TE - it is a sheer drop but unlike OT is a drop you’d live from if you fell because that second tier is still pretty good.

 

[Schultz]

Thanks, Tyni, my vertigo just started up.

 

[OldSchool101]

I see WR as a position that, while it’s definitely in the top several positional needs, isn’t a must in RD1. Sure I’d love a Golden type pick, that would be exciting. Christian Watson likely wouldn’t be a RD1 selection in a draft redo. He’s probably a Top 50 prospect, maybe top 40 because of the emphasis at WR in recent years. I certainly wouldn’t take Watson over the top 4 WR in 2025 if he was a Rookie. Now that’s not an attack on him, but moreso where I think #9 Value would be if he was in this class.

I think there’s a reasonable chance to get near Watson like production from a RD2 WR. Egbuka, Beck, heck.. even Savion Williams was a 900+ all purpose Player and 12TD and rising who’s a consensus 3rd Rounder. There’s some guys inside our top 3 selections that can give our current group some juice.

I think we can go after a RD1-2 All around talented WR and still back up WR in Day 3 with another selection.

 

[OldSchool101]

As far as DL. I really like a Derrick Harmon type selection in RD1. I think as good as TJ was for Day3, that caliber DL would provide immediate juice. That thinking goes very much in line with what we saw in FA. Fix the trenches with not only an equal player, but get someone who can provide some elevated disruption by allowing flexibility across the trenches, this time on Defense. Plug Harmon in there with Kenny or Wyatt and that’s formidable grouping. He’s very quick and has deceptive long stride when QB’s flush out. He’s seeing tape regularly running QB’s into the sideline chalk for minimal gains. I’ve noticed in recent drafts CBS has been “Charlie Campbell-like” remarkable in evaluation and calling projections to near actual. They have him at #16 overall and even if it’s a little high? At #23 that’s a very safe selection. NFL draft Buzz has his Pass Rush grade at 90 and run D grade at 87, which you don’t see very often. Now his knock is he’s pulled a Wyatt and scored lower by occasionally not finishing a TFL or Sack all up in the pocket, but he’s disruptive in all phases and the game is slower for him. I think thats the hard part, we can elevate his finishing love touches through coaching imo.


As a comparative great player, Kenneth Grant has a DraftBuzz pass rush grade of 90 and Run grade of 81, but with much better finish on Tackling (76) My feelings wouldn’t be hurt with Grant either. He’s got some BJ Raji in his film. Man he’s a Big Boy who looks NFL like. At 330-335lb, Grant isn’t going to get moved easily either, especially goal line. There’s two ways to skin a Pass Rush cat. Bringing inside disruption and not allowing a QB to step up in the pocket is another valid formula. Grant is really the direct replacement for TJ and likely an upgrade (Tederell like against the Run but with better Pass Rush) in his Rookie season.

 

[Dantés]

There are a few guys who, if they fell, I would be most inclined to stick and pick.

Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas
Shemar Stewart, DE, Texas AM

But if those guys are gone, I think my favorite option this year is trading back.

 

[OldSchool101]

Another possible prospect is Donovan Ezeiruaku. To begin, he’s a 2024 ACC Defensive player of the Year and All American. His single season 16.5 Sacks tied his schools program Record.
His 20.5 TFL (26.5% tackle for loss rate) is “near-elite” disruptive. However overlapping that with 16.5 Sacks is a whole different matter imo. It shows he’s not a 1-trick pony, he’s multi faceted.
Then we couple that with he’s a product of the Hafley system, so Jeff already knows him well and Haf would be able to determine quickly how to apply him.
For myself, we are very close to being SB competitive. That = leaning production over projection in 2025 specifically. If we get 1-2 improvements on an already very capable Defensive unit, I think we get off that top 6-10 plateau ranking area and into the top 1-5 area. Obviously we need to go after CB or maybe maybe DE also. Yet I’d argue applying pressure at DL helps the DB room as a bi-product. Similar to our FA gyrations of adding a dominant LG, it makes Elgton the Cornerstone of a wall of protection.

Personally I’d like to trade back 2,4,7 Slots get our guy on DL or WR wrapped up Day 1. I just trust Gute can still fulfill a primary need using 25,27,30 overall. Then use that draft equity to move up if necessary and stick a good WR or DT/DE with a Bonafide top45-50 selection. Use RD1 to gain equity and consolidate start Day2 with a top50 moveup + bonus top 100 area prospect. It’s betting on our Draft ability in later Day1 and allowing extras dart throw(s) in that Kraft.. to Evan Williams.. Zach Tom areas.

 

[OldSchool101]

I liked what Ted did in Day1 and I didn’t like what Ted did in Day1.
Imo The trade back to #33 for the #1 selection in Day 2 and #1 pick in Day3 was 200% along the correct thought process of betting on self ability for key strategic purposes. I disagreed on losing a potential 5th year option but that’s just me. Forget about the actual picks for a second (Kevin King and then Biegel from the Badgers). As a general rule a players ranked at 23 and 27 are not some far cry. Often your ideal player doesn’t even get selected in a backup if you know your trade back partners intention. It leaves 3 intriguing draft prospects susceptible to being plucked. Likely 1-2 don’t even get selected. Who would’ve guess GB selects Quay Walker?? Teams do weird stuff.

Now in Day 1 at pick #12 or #14 overall that’s another story. Those are potential top 10 prospects that slide across our selection. For me I’d rather move up a spot or two there. So that philosophy changes in each draft and each order placement. In this draft? I like having an extra 3rd Round equity to manipulate the Board.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Does anyone know much about Trey Amos?

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10139528-trey-amos-nfl-draft-2025-scouting-report-for-ole-miss-cb

 

[tynimiller]

Does anyone know much about Trey Amos?

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10139528-trey-amos-nfl-draft-2025-scouting-report-for-ole-miss-cb

@dantes and I have shared a decent amount about him but he is VERY much a Packer type from historical traits perspective from beginning to the end.

He is one of five CBs that at #23 I predict will be in play possibly for GB, with Jahdae and Will Johnson likely both gone.

Amos has been a lot of places with three seasons with the Ragin' Cagins and has always been a wide corner his whole career in college. After leaving Louisiana he transferred to Alabama and then this past year over to Ole Miss.

Amos everywhere has seen success against all receiver types and doesn't back down from anyone. He has solid length which was confirmed at combine with 31.25 arms, surpassed GB's 190lb threshold and while not a blazer is fast enough running a 4.44. However, what I loved on his tape is he can and does well in man coverage BUT his football IQ causes him to be just as valuable in zone calls as well. I've heard some claim hip tightness in his backstep but I'll be honest I have to disagree. My main worry with Amos is he is an older prospect and I partially wonder is he near his ceiling...

His best film for sure IMO was the week 11 game against Georgia, but also against Duke in their bowl game.

 

[Dantés]

I am personally not expecting CB as early as a lot of people, but Amos is definitely their type.

And to be clear, I'm not going to be upset if they take a CB early. I just don't think they've set themselves up in a way where that's the intention.

 

[tynimiller]

I am personally not expecting CB as early as a lot of people, but Amos is definitely their type.

And to be clear, I'm not going to be upset if they take a CB early. I just don't think they've set themselves up in a way where that's the intention.

I predict both trenches before CB, zero Jaire noise just further confirms that as my prediction.

 

[Dantés]

1. TEN: C. Ward, QB, MIA
2. CLE: A. Carter, DE, PSU
3. NYG: T. Hunter, CB/WR, COL
4. NE: A. Membou, OT, MIZZ
5. JAC: M. Graham, DT, MICH
6. LV: A. Jeanty, RB, BSU
7. NYJ: W. Campbell, OL, LSU
8. CAR: T. McMillan, WR, AZ
9. NO: S. Stewart, DE, TAMU
10. CHI: K. Banks, OT, UT
11. SF: M. Williams, DE, UGA
12. DAL: K. Grant, DT, MICH
13. MIA: J. Barron, DB, UT
14. IND: T. Warren, TE, PSU
15. ATL: J. Walker, ED, UGA
16. ARI: W. Johnson, CB, MICH
17. CIN: J. Pearce, DE, TEN
18. SEA: M. Golden, WR, UT
19. TB: J. Campbell, LB, UA
20. DEN: M. Green, ED, BGU
21. PIT: S. Sanders, QB, COL
22. LAC: C. Loveland, TE, MICH

Ok, so here's one way the board could fall. Rule out the trade down option. Here's who is on the board at variation positions of need:

WR:

-E. Egbuka, OSU
-L. Burden, MIZZ
-J. Higgins, IAST

OT:

-J. Conerly Jr, OR
-J. Simmons, OSU

DT:

-D. Harmon, OR
-W. Nolen, MISS

DE:

-D. Ezeiruaku, BC
-N. Scourton, TAMU

CB:

-M. Hairston, UK
-S. Revel, ECU

For me, it comes down to Harmon, Ezeiruaku, Simmons, and Conerly.

If Simmons' medicals are really clean, he would be very tough to pass on.

If that's less certain, I probably choose Harmon, but I'm happy with any of them.

 

[Thirteen Below]

His best film for sure IMO was the week 11 game against Georgia, but also against Duke in their bowl game.

I find it interesting that his best games appear to have been in a bowl game and against a Bulldogs team that (IIRC) was #2 in the nation at that time.

Thanks for the detailed breakdown.

I predict both trenches before CB, zero Jaire noise just further confirms that as my prediction.

More and more I've been thinking the exact same thing about Jaire the last couple of weeks. I think Gute's Plan A is to close his eyes, cross his fingers, and roll the dice with him one more season.

But I still think the most likely scenario is trading back to the bottom of the round, taking a WR, and picking edge, CB, and DT on Day 2. Even if Jaire sticks, we're still a little thin at CB, drafting a CB this year means we don't necessarily have to rely on a rookie to be a key player in 26.

But then again if we take a CB to develop, we might get better value on Day 3.

That's just my opinion; I'm nowhere near the draft expert you two are.

Love your new sig, by the way.

 

[gopkrs]

1. TEN: C. Ward, QB, MIA
2. CLE: A. Carter, DE, PSU
3. NYG: T. Hunter, CB/WR, COL
4. NE: A. Membou, OT, MIZZ
5. JAC: M. Graham, DT, MICH
6. LV: A. Jeanty, RB, BSU
7. NYJ: W. Campbell, OL, LSU
8. CAR: T. McMillan, WR, AZ
9. NO: S. Stewart, DE, TAMU
10. CHI: K. Banks, OT, UT
11. SF: M. Williams, DE, UGA
12. DAL: K. Grant, DT, MICH
13. MIA: J. Barron, DB, UT
14. IND: T. Warren, TE, PSU
15. ATL: J. Walker, ED, UGA
16. ARI: W. Johnson, CB, MICH
17. CIN: J. Pearce, DE, TEN
18. SEA: M. Golden, WR, UT
19. TB: J. Campbell, LB, UA
20. DEN: M. Green, ED, BGU
21. PIT: S. Sanders, QB, COL
22. LAC: C. Loveland, TE, MICH

Ok, so here's one way the board could fall. Rule out the trade down option. Here's who is on the board at variation positions of need:

WR:

-E. Egbuka, OSU
-L. Burden, MIZZ
-J. Higgins, IAST

OT:

-J. Conerly Jr, OR
-J. Simmons, OSU

DT:

-D. Harmon, OR
-W. Nolen, MISS

DE:

-D. Ezeiruaku, BC
-N. Scourton, TAMU

CB:

-M. Hairston, UK
-S. Revel, ECU

For me, it comes down to Harmon, Ezeiruaku, Simmons, and Conerly.

If Simmons' medicals are really clean, he would be very tough to pass on.

If that's less certain, I probably choose Harmon, but I'm happy with any of them.

Egbuka and then Conerly

 

[Dantés]

Egbuka and then Conerly

Do you think they would take Egbuka or is that just your preference?

 

[gopkrs]

Do you think they would take Egbuka or is that just your preference?

My preference. I don't have any idea what they are going to do. Abd to be honest, I don't know the difference between Conerly and Simmons.

 

[Dantés]

My preference. I don't have any idea what they are going to do

I'm pretty conflicted on him as far as whether the Packers would consider it.

He's definitely not a slot only, but I think he needs to play there quite a bit if you're going to get full value out of him. Reed kind of limits them that way because they only use him inside.

But I really like Egbuka's ability to separate and I think with his run blocking he would appeal to Petals.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm pretty conflicted on him as far as whether the Packers would consider it.

He's definitely not a slot only, but I think he needs to play there quite a bit if you're going to get full value out of him. Reed kind of limits them that way because they only use him inside.

But I really like Egbuka's ability to separate and I think with his run blocking he would appeal to Petals.

When I read that he caught everything and he was rated so high; he became my favorite. Very tired of dropped balls. And Ohio State receivers have looked very good recently.

 

[Dantés]

When I read that he caught everything and he was rated so high; he became my favorite. Very tired of dropped balls. And Ohio State receivers have looked very good recently.

He's so similar to JSN, who they passed on. He's a little bigger and a little faster... better blocker. I don't know if it's all enough that they would pull the trigger.

 

[gopkrs]

He's so similar to JSN, who they passed on. He's a little bigger and a little faster... better blocker. I don't know if it's all enough that they would pull the trigger.

Well, for me, there is a bigger need this year at receiver. I just keep seeing in my mind, an empty field on the left side when we are on offense. Even though I like Doubs a lot.

 

[Dantés]

Well, for me, there is a bigger need this year at receiver. I just keep seeing in my mind, an empty field on the left side when we are on offense. Even though I like Doubs a lot.

I can't agree with you there.

Heading into that 2023 draft, the Packers had two guys on the roster who were worth any sort of consideration at receiver-- Watson and Doubs. Virtually the entire WR corps was built in that draft (Reed, Wicks, and Dubose), via UDFA (Heath), and a SFA (Melton). The only other player who made the roster at WR and who was on the roster before that draft was Samori Toure.

Going into this year, they already have Doubs, Reed, Wicks, Heath, and Melton heading into camp. Watson is obviously still under contract, but injured.

Still a legit need, but a little less so compared to 2023.

Now an argument that I could see is draft position. In 2023, they picked 13th and JSN went 20th. So maybe they would have been interested in him later on (say, in the range where they pick this season).

 

[DoURant]

It seems like Gute drafts an "under the radar" pick in Rd 1 every year. Jaire, Gary, Savage, Love, Stokes, Quay, Wyatt, Morgan. Van Ness is probably his most predictable 1st Rd draft pick, of all of these guys. With that in mind, I'm trying to look a little outside the box at a few positions of need, ( my inner Gutey Zen-ness if you will ). Here are a few of the guys that we aren't really talking about, because they might be a little bit in that tweener spot of late 1st early 2nd area, and a couple that could possibly fall to us.

WR - Luther Burden III - Missouri, he could be an alpha #1 WR by year 2 or 3, fast 4.41, so could be that deep threat we need. Now until the Packers actually draft a WR in Rd 1, it almost seems a moot point, but WR is definitely a position of need and Golden and Ebuka are the guys mainly talked about if WR is taken.

DL - Tyleik Williams - Ohio St, a big boy to take TJ Slaton's spot. Really good run defender, someone I would be perfectly fine with taking in Rd 1

EDGE - Princely Umanmielen - Ole Miss, they met with him twice during the draft process already, so there is some interest. 11 Sacks, and 28 pressures this past season.

CB - Will Johnson - Michigan, consensus is he will be gone early, but there is always a guy who falls. Johnson has had multiple injuries in college ( turf toe and hamstring), couple that with he didn't run a 40 time at the combine or at Michigan's Pro Day leaving many to wonder how fast he really is. So never say never, if he makes it to #23, it would be tough to pass him up. Now, Two guys who are pretty much considered 2nd Rd guys... but so was Stokes... they are both tall, fast and are outside corners.

Maxwell Hairston - Kentucky - 4.29 40, & Darien Porter - Iowa St - 4.30 40

The 2 CB's Gute has picked in Rd 1, Jaire and Stokes were both fast, as was S Darnell Savage, which tells me, if you got speed to burn at CB, Gute is interested.

OT - Personally I just don't see taking a Tackle 2 years in a row. I still think they plan on Morgan being a Tackle. Last year they wanted him on the field, and Guard was his best chance to do that. If they draft any offensive linemen in the 1st, my pick is:
OL - Grey Zabel - N Dakota St, he just makes the most sense, as he played 4 positions in college, excelled at all of them, not to mention he was "the guy" at the Senior Bowl practices that stood out at multiple positions... and what do the Packers covet in OL ... VERSATILITY!!

One guy to watch that has a chance to drop is Kelvin Banks -Texas. I think it depends on if Grey Zabel goes before him. If that happens then I think OT could be in play.

Anyway, those are my thoughts on some guys I haven't seen a lot of discussion about, and have a legitimate chance to be "under the radar" picks for the Packers in Rd 1