2023 Tyni's Prospect Thread

[tynimiller]

They might not know what Rodgers is doing, before Jone's $7M roster bonus kicks in (3/17/2023). Once that kicks in, he is all but a lock to be a Packer in 2023. I would hope that they can agree to a restructure with jones.

Yup, that is one MAJOR factor why I truly believe at ABSOLUTE latest we will know before that date.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yup, that is one MAJOR factor why I truly believe at ABSOLUTE latest we will know before that date.

The good news, this is the 3rd straight year that the Packers have had to make contingency plans for whatever Rodgers decides that he wants to do. So they probably have it down to a science with Board A - Stays, Board B - Retires and Board C - Traded.

 

[Mondio]

I can't see GB waiting until then to do something with Jones. #1, they're not going to trade him with that contract. #2 they aren't going to pay 7M bonus and then pay 8M in salary. #3 They aren't going to pay a 7M bonus and then restructure his 8M salary into more bonus money after.

If they keep or trade either way, he's going to need to be dealt with before that first bonus is paid. and if they're going to just cut him, get on with it. I would think getting a restructure done 1st is best for all involved, regardless of what Rodgers does. He's good enough that we'd get some value in trade at least, and he's good enough to keep for a young or old QB if you can restructure. I think just flat out cut is best cap wise, but hurts the team from a talent standpoint and potential draft pick stand point.

 

[tynimiller]

The good news, this is the 3rd straight year that the Packers have had to make contingency plans for whatever Rodgers decides that he wants to do. So they probably have it down to a science with Board A - Stays, Board B - Retires and Board C - Traded.

I’m hoping for there sake these boards are hanging over a small bar with high end options to get through the BS time frame now till a board is known lol

 

[tynimiller]

I can't see GB waiting until then to do something with Jones. #1, they're not going to trade him with that contract. #2 they aren't going to pay 7M bonus and then pay 8M in salary. #3 They aren't going to pay a 7M bonus and then restructure his 8M salary into more bonus money after.

If they keep or trade either way, he's going to need to be dealt with before that first bonus is paid. and if they're going to just cut him, get on with it. I would think getting a restructure done 1st is best for all involved, regardless of what Rodgers does. He's good enough that we'd get some value in trade at least, and he's good enough to keep for a young or old QB if you can restructure. I think just flat out cut is best cap wise, but hurts the team from a talent standpoint and potential draft pick stand point.

I could see a world where IF we enter a rebuild covering that $7M roster bonus and then moving him might make him more palatable to get some now (2023) draft capital back to help build a future roster.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I’m hoping for there sake these boards are hanging over a small bar with high end options to get through the BS time frame now till a board is known lol

No denying it, after an 8-9 season, the Packers have a lot of decisions to make on players whose contracts expired and some that didnt. Many of those decisions pivot on which direction the team can go, rebuild or reload. However, it appears that everything revolves around the carousel that Rogers has been riding. Seems the Packers are content to wait until the day that he decides to continue to ride it, step off of it or jump to a new one.

 

[Mondio]

Things GB did last year "while on the Rodgers Carousel"

Released Z smith

Released Billy Turner

Restructured David Bahktiari

Signed Preston Smith to a very friendly extension

Restructured Adrian Amos

Traded Devante Adams

All moves good for the team, and didn't require Aaron Rodgers.

My guess is they'll do the same this year and all the hand wringing will be for naught, again.
Jones needs to be redone regardless, we all knew it when he signed it and he's either in the teams future plans, or he's not. He'd be good here with Rodgers again, he'd be very beneficial to have with your new QB who needs a run game to help him along.
Crosby, I'd offer him a contract in line with who he is and where he is as a player. He's not going to sign for a minimum and he's not going to break the bank.
Lewis? not sure, he probably wants to retire.
Cobb, pretty cheap non guaranteed contract. He can still likely beat out any bottom of the roster player so if he does, cool.
BahkT is a clear keep for me, regardless of who's QB. Our Oline is good on the left, needs a lot of help on the right. I'm not putting Rodgers or Love out there with a massive hole on the right and one I just made on the left too. Recipe for disaster for the old guy, or the new guy.
Tonyan, low level low vet contract offer. He's not breaking bank anywhere. he can sign or leave.

They can make everyone of those decisions right now and I'd bet most has nothing to do with Aaron Rodgers.

Every year it's something else and every year it passes by not being anything close to what everyone says. It's like last year was so long ago nobody can remember LOL.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Heck I would even draft Bijan Robinson at 15 as he would also help take pressure off Love. If Rodgers leaves I see no sense keeping Aaron Jones. I can see trading him. We would otherwise have to extend him.
I think Robinson will be very special.
If Johnson is there at 15 you don’t even think twice.

I definitely don't want the Packers to use their first rounder on a running back.

They might not know what Rodgers is doing, before Jones's $7M roster bonus kicks in (3/17/2023).

I guarantee the Packers will know about Rodgers decision by the start of the league year on March 15.

I could see a world where IF we enter a rebuild covering that $7M roster bonus and then moving him might make him more palatable to get some now (2023) draft capital back to help build a future roster.

I don't see any scenario in which it makes sense for the Packers to pick up Jones roster bonus to move on from him afterwards.

 

[tynimiller]

I definitely don't want the Packers to use their first rounder on a running back.



I guarantee the Packers will know about Rodgers decision by the start of the league year on March 15.



I don't see any scenario in which it makes sense for the Packers to pick up Jones roster bonus to move on from him afterwards.

ONLY if in full blown rebuild and he wants out. Very unlikely I agree

 

[Deleted member 6794]

ONLY if in full blown rebuild and he wants out. Very unlikely I agree

Even then it would be smarter to release Jones and save the cap space.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't see any scenario in which it makes sense for the Packers to pick up Jones roster bonus to move on from him afterwards.

I may be wrong with what Tyni was trying to convey, but if the Packers wanted to try and trade Jones, due to his rather large cap hit this year, the Packers might have to pick up that roster bonus, for 2 reasons. One, to have time to shop him and two, to make him more marketable in a trade.

 

[tynimiller]

Even then it would be smarter to release Jones and save the cap space.

Arguably yes, but not if they already have a suitor willing to give more draft equity than a comp pick would be in 2024.

Of course that comes with a cost hit too

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Arguably yes, but not if they already have a suitor willing to give more draft equity than a comp pick would be in 2024.

Of course that comes with a cost hit too

If they release Jones, they don't get a compensatory pick, since he is under contract until 2024. If they can't resign him after that season, it would be factored into a possible 2026 comp pick.

 

[tynimiller]

If they release Jones, they don't get a compensatory pick, since he is under contract until 2024. If they can't resign him after that season, it would be factored into a possible 2026 comp pick.

Duh, brain fart here on my end for sure there. That strengthens the argument "for trading" even if it costs a little first.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Duh, brain fart here on my end for sure there. That strengthens the argument "for trading" even if it costs a little first.

Yup. If the Packers were to pick up his signing bonus and offer him up in a trade, the new team would only be on the hook for $8.5M, which would be a bargain for them, so they might be willing to trade a premium pick. That team would also have him under contract in 2024 for $12M.

Problem for the Packers, either way, it is a big cap hit.

I just realized his 3/17/23 Roster bonus is "only" $7M. The other $400K on his roster bonus is a per game on active roster of $23,529 bonus.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm completely opposed to the Packers taking a $7 million cap hit to possibly get a better compensation in a trade of Jones. A team acquiring him should restructure his contract to lower his cap hit next season if they don't want him to count $16 million against their cap in 2023.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm completely opposed to the Packers taking a $7 million cap hit to possibly get a better compensation in a trade of Jones. A team acquiring him should restructure his contract to lower his cap hit next season if they don't want him to count $16 million against their cap in 2023.

As I think many of us would be overall. However, correct me if I'm wrong we restructure his 2024 hit is just going to be ludacris and we are right back where we are no?

Jones is set to hit our cap with like $20M for round figures, ignorantly high for a RB this day and age...likewise a restructure only seems to have about the ability to save $4M of that....$16M is still crazy to spend on a RB especially if we're in a reset/rebuild mentality for a year.

That last part is the massively crucial aspect of it all. If Rodgers says he is back, and Gute and Co. agree to run it back - you bet your sweet biffy they'll eat Aaron's current number if they have to but most likely will restructure of course.

However, IF Green Bay is truly going to enter a mode of reset for future with Love getting something for Jones rather than absolutely zilch for him either now or after 2023 or even after 2024...lower the cap hit and have the picks to attempt to reload at positions with rookie deals. If you flood a team with rookie deals and quickly in 2023 ascertain who is the future and who isn't, you enter a post 2023 season with a clear indication of where to hit FA and also the 2024 draft (likely to have similar or better draft position than this year).

As a fan I'm not excited about a stripping down of the roster persay, but it is a logical direction IF we are truly turning to the future.

 

[Mondio]

I can't see them going with Love and then giving him nobody to play with. That said, IMO if Jones can't be restructured to a nice friendly deal i'm ok with an outright cut. Under zero circumstances am I paying 7M for the chance to try and trade him later. Both Jones and Williams were late round picks. A guy like Williams was just gotten for 3 M a year. I'd take my chances at RB. But they might feel will continue to be a dynamic of a playmaker and we need some of those. Right now we have 1 very early in the making and that's it besides Jones.

Jones is either in their plans or not. I don't think there needs to be any other considerations as to who is QB

 

[tynimiller]

I just don't see how the QB doesn't change the mindset of the future and how we tackle 2023 and into 2024 for that matter. If Rodgers is here, it's because this organization is going to "run it back" for like the fourth time and no doubt resign at minimum I'd suspect a couple of the four/five guys Rodgers has specifically brought up in discussions of future; Lazard, Tonyan, Lewis, Crosby, Cobb.

I have no issue, despite disagreement, with that tactic if that is the decision you make at QB. That said, if you roll to the future, a massive cap reset is needed and that cannot truly be accomplished without some removal of big contracts off the books and if able replace with rookie deals. I'm not saying getting rid of Jones makes this team better from a weapons, W/L column or the running back room specifically...however the logic of removing him whether by cut, pay and trade or trade (doubtful at his cost presently before that bonus is paid) is something I understand as needed sadly if that is the direction we start rolling - even if it means saying goodbye to probably one of my favorite GB Packers presently playing for us.

 

[tynimiller]

Either way back to prospects:

So I did a deeper dive into the prospects at TE not named Mayer.

I'll be honest folks, I truly think Luke Musgrave could potentially come out of this TE draft class as one of the best and I wouldn't be shocked if some GMs actually think there may be more of a dynamic TE in him than Mayer even if his measurables and RAS come back what is being rumored.

Overall Luke is a prototypical TE body type at 6'6' 250lbs who historically showcased immense athleticism in high school where he played primarily defensive edge and wide receiver. He's been flexed all over in alignments at Oregon State and I envision more of the same at the next level. Oregon State was not an air attack style offense and often times Luke found himself blocking to set up rushing yards, he does so efficiently and his speed comes in handy at next level blocking (however not an overpowering presence like Darnell or Mayer prospects); he may not have any decleater level blocks at the next level but he will position himself well and has enough strength to hold or mirror defenders to seal holes long enough for the runner to slip through.

Through the air when called on Luke has excelled and his hands are one of his strongest attributes here. He truly has the stride speed of a TE that if he don't get a bump on him he can quickly take up space and stress the middle seams of a defense which opens up the entire field through the air.

Personally I'm in the same boat on Musgrave as I am on Tucker Kraft...3rd round grade, but would understand due to need if we roll one of their names out in the second round - I prefer in 2nd if we go TE to nab Darnell Washington or Dalton Kincaid but would understand it if we heard Musgrave or Kraft...both of which I have slightly ahead of Sam LaPorte from Iowa.

 

[Mondio]

I just don't see how the QB doesn't change the mindset of the future and how we tackle 2023 and into 2024 for that matter. If Rodgers is here, it's because this organization is going to "run it back" for like the fourth time and no doubt resign at minimum I'd suspect a couple of the four/five guys Rodgers has specifically brought up in discussions of future; Lazard, Tonyan, Lewis, Crosby, Cobb.

I have no issue, despite disagreement, with that tactic if that is the decision you make at QB. That said, if you roll to the future, a massive cap reset is needed and that cannot truly be accomplished without some removal of big contracts off the books and if able replace with rookie deals. I'm not saying getting rid of Jones makes this team better from a weapons, W/L column or the running back room specifically...however the logic of removing him whether by cut, pay and trade or trade (doubtful at his cost presently before that bonus is paid) is something I understand as needed sadly if that is the direction we start rolling - even if it means saying goodbye to probably one of my favorite GB Packers presently playing for us.

because you either think Love is a QB worth keeping around in which case he needs a team around him too, or you don't.

and if Jones isn't restructuring his contract and I don't think he's in our future, I don't care if Rodgers does what to come back, he's going to have do it without Jones.

There are lots of right or wrong answers. I don't know how valuable the Packers consider Jones. He doesn't have enough value to me to keep at his current contract, that much I"m sure of.

But if they figure he's valuable enough to keep for Rodgers, why not Love?

 

[tynimiller]

But if they figure he's valuable enough to keep for Rodgers, why not Love?

I only can speak for me, but I see logic and think many may feel same way in the organization. If you go to Love, I personally feel only those ignorant to reality would think we have the same shot at success at least initially in his "growing pains" year of 2023. Now don't take that wrong though - I don't think Green Bay ends up much worse than they did in 2022 had Love started than we did with Rodgers...but I think best case you get lucky, win some close ones and Love in year one has us in a similar 2023 situation maybe fighting for a bottom wildcard spot...but either way 2023 is the "figure out" year and is all about IMO setting up for 2024.

That is where I think some hurt now could be justified if it is all geared towards making that push forward with Love OR if 2023 confirms Love isn't the answer - you really don't want to be caught with a bad cap situation pushing things forward with Love thinking he could win, AND restraining you in 2024 with numerous other holes now formed which you didn't take advantage of the reset year that could have been for 2023.

An entirely other angle to answer your posed question is because they've done things for Rodgers before. The most obvious one is the fact they traded draft capital for Cobb - which from all accounts and all but signed in ink admitted by Gute was strictly to appease his QB. If Rodgers comes back, it makes sense that they push the can and force everything they can finagle to work to work for one year in an effort to appease Rodgers and win a SB in his final act.

The crazy thing is which I know we both agree with, no matter what the next few weeks/month holds - one thing is true a lot of decisions made in them are going to have massive impacts to the future of the organization - good or bad...and only time will tell how it all works out.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I only can speak for me, but I see logic and think many may feel same way in the organization. If you go to Love, I personally feel only those ignorant to reality would think we have the same shot at success at least initially in his "growing pains" year of 2023.

Agreed. Unless Love unveils the inner Rodgers in himself right away, there are going to be some growing pains/losses. Which is to be expected and if Love isn't the answer, those growing pains last longer, until you find the next Brock Purdy.

Whether is happens in 2023, 2024 or whenever, Rodgers will at some point, step away from the game. At that point in time, the Packers are officially in rebuild mode and a part of that rebuild process will be to get cap healthy again.

 

[tynimiller]

Agreed. Unless Love unveils the inner Rodgers in himself right away, there are going to be some growing pains/losses. Which is to be expected and if Love isn't the answer, those growing pains last longer, until you find the next Brock Purdy.

Whether is happens in 2023, 2024 or whenever, Rodgers will at some point, step away from the game. At that point in time, the Packers are officially in rebuild mode and a part of that rebuild process will be to get cap healthy again.

Correct and the recent moves of teams like Eagles, Bengals and Jags also illustrate the strip down, hit draft hard is your only shot of rejuvenating quicker....now yes if you don't hit the draft it can extend your suffering instead of clinging to mediocrity for more years.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Correct and the recent moves of teams like Eagles, Bengals and Jags also illustrate the strip down, hit draft hard is your only shot of rejuvenating quicker....now yes if you don't hit the draft it can extend your suffering instead of clinging to mediocrity for more years.

Yes and all 3 of those teams seemed to nail their QB pick in the process. Can the Packers or other teams win it all with a Brock Purdy or an other unknown, sure, but probably not until the defense is top 5 and you are able to put multiple weapons for the QB onto the field.