2023 Draft Talk

[Sunshinepacker]

Again I understand the concept, but I will never embrace ******* a team/staff into a plan for the draft rather than drafting the players they feel are the best. Now of course say we are sitting there at #15 and Porter Jr is there, Lukas Van Ness is there...even Broderick Jones is there....and Gute looks at the room and says what does the board say?

"Porter Jr is our highest rated prospect left, we had him as #9....Lukas Van Ness we have at #12." - someone in the room

"And JSN we have the #16th best prospect....MLF thoughts?" - Gute

"Give me JSN or give me someone to protect Love would be my opinion..." MLF

"We're taking JSN....keep keen eye on edge rushers and TEs fellas moving forward, if our board gets too thin we gotta make something happen there." - Gute

I would get that hypothetical discussion and understand it - even if I disagreed ultimately with the pick in the sense of we did not get the best available player.

I never said, or even thought that. I said trade down…that means you get more, slightly lower ranked guys not passing one higher ranked player for one worse player.

 

[tynimiller]

I never said, or even thought that. I said trade down…that means you get more, slightly lower ranked guys not passing one higher ranked player for one worse player.

Cannot plan on trade downs either, boxing in a plan to trade back leads to taking a trade that isn't the package someone should do.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Cannot plan on trade downs either, boxing in a plan to trade back leads to taking a trade that isn't the package someone should do.

Ok, so no more hypothetical discussion on a draft we can't forecast because planning on trades is not certain enough? This is a forum discussing the future of something we have no input into. If we can't talk about our ideal scenarios in a '2023 draft talk' topic, then what are we doing here?

 

[tynimiller]

Ok, so no more hypothetical discussion on a draft we can't forecast because planning on trades is not certain enough? This is a forum discussing the future of something we have no input into. If we can't talk about our ideal scenarios in a '2023 draft talk' topic, then what are we doing here?

Not at all, Mondio and you and I were discussing concepts of how to approach the draft - you shared yours I was merely expressing either how our organization's tendencies or my own personal beliefs don't quite line up with that.

I love the idea of trading back, but it's incredibly tough to do a "planned" approach to it.

 

[Schultz]

IF Porter Jr., Van Ness, Jones & JSN are still available at #15 I would HOPE Gute has the sense to trade #15 to Washington (for #16 & #97), or #15 & #78 to Pittsburgh for #17 & #49. He'd still have his choice of the remaining 2 or 3 of that list and have better draft ammo.

Please explain why these other teams would do that?

 

[Pkrjones]

Please explain why these other teams would do that?

If they had a specific player in that group (probably Porter Jr) that they wanted & didn't want to be leap-frogged by another team.

Why does Gute slide back & then forward (as with Alexander pick)? Because he could amass more picks & still go get "his guy".

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Packers are probably going to need to put DL towards the top of their draft need list, unless they can find a starting quality player in Free Agency.

The Seahawks signed former Packer and former Seahawk Jarren Reed. Being reported as a two-year deal worth up to $10.8 million

 

[gemoran4]

Not going to lie, i'm pretty fundamentally against taking TEs in the first round. You can easily find good TEs in the middle rounds, and 1st round TEs almost never live up to their billing. That being said there's not many positions I would be terribly upset with us taking in the 1st round (even TE for that matter, though I think it'd be a waste).

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

You can easily find good TEs in the middle rounds

Gute has used two 3rd round picks on TE's since he arrived and neither of them have been particularly good. Now give the TE depth in this draft, maybe he can finally break that streak. That said, I think there will be a run on TE's and what you get in round 3 or 4, is going to be a lot riskier than one of the top 2-4 TE's.

 

[OldSchool101]

Imo I wouldn’t go into a draft with blinders on. As much as I like the trade back concept, I’m only doing it if I pick up some draft capital etc.

If a team reached out to us to trade back slightly but overcompensated us to do so? I’d strongly consider that move back.

As an example if Chargers offered us a #21+#54 + #200
For
#15 +#256
I’d likely take that trade back

 

[Heyjoe4]

Gute has used two 3rd round picks on TE's since he arrived and neither of them have been particularly good. Now give the TE depth in this draft, maybe he can finally break that streak. That said, I think there will be a run on TE's and what you get in round 3 or 4, is going to be a lot riskier than one of the top 2-4 TE's.

Agreed. Gluten needs to come out of round 1 with either Mayer or Musgrave. Hopefully they get the Jets' #13 pick. In that case I'd add Van Ness or Branch.

Good TEs are not to be found after round 2. That's not an absolute rule, but just check the record on Packer 3rd round TEs. Pathetic.

 

[Pkrjones]

Packers are probably going to need to put DL towards the top of their draft need list, unless they can find a starting quality player in Free Agency.

The Seahawks signed former Packer and former Seahawk Jarren Reed. Being reported as a two-year deal worth up to $10.8 million

He was a placeholder until Slaton & Wyatt were ready...they're ready for '23. I'd wait until day 2 or even 3 for a DL.

 

[Heyjoe4]

He was a placeholder until Slaton & Wyatt were ready...they're ready for '23. I'd wait until day 2 or even 3 for a DL.

Agree that Reed was a placeholder. Feel pretty good about Clark, Wyatt, and Slaton on the inside. iDL need some depth, but that can be taken in a later round. Urgent needs are TE, S, OT, Edge.

 

[Schultz]

If they had a specific player in that group (probably Porter Jr) that they wanted & didn't want to be leap-frogged by another team.

Why does Gute slide back & then forward (as with Alexander pick)? Because he could amass more picks & still go get "his guy".

IMO both of those trades are lobsided to the Packers benefit. Would be nice if somehow it worked out that way.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Not going to lie, i'm pretty fundamentally against taking TEs in the first round. You can easily find good TEs in the middle rounds, and 1st round TEs almost never live up to their billing. That being said there's not many positions I would be terribly upset with us taking in the 1st round (even TE for that matter, though I think it'd be a waste).

I don't agree completely that good TEs can be found in round 3 or later. But you have a point that some recent TEs picked in round 1 haven't been very good. I think Irv Smith was a first rounder, and another guy Atlanta took with the 4th overall pick. Can't recall his name but he hasn't live up to a 4th overall pick.

 

[Schultz]

Quick question. What is the deadline for teams to offer contracts to players that have been tendered? For example Josh Nijman.

 

[Pkrjones]

Quick question. What is the deadline for teams to offer contracts to players that have been tendered? For example Josh Nijman.

It was today at 4pm. Should hear about them tonight or tomorrow.

 

[Schultz]

I know we tendered Nijman. When is the deadline for other teams to offer him a contract and then for GB to decide to match it or take the 2nd round pick? I think that is how it works.

 

[Pkrjones]

I know we tendered Nijman. When is the deadline for other teams to offer him a contract and then for GB to decide to match it or take the 2nd round pick? I think that is how it works.

April 21 to get a signed offer from another club. April 26 for original team to match or receive draft pick.

2022-23 NFL Important Dates | NFL Football Operations

Get an overview of the important NFL dates for 2022-23 league year.

operations.nfl.com

 

[Schultz]

Thank you very much. I figured it would be before the draft. Thanks for confirming. The pick if taken would be for 2024 draft?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And in whatever case IMO when you are trying to develop a young quarterback it's more beneficial to that young QB to have an elite supporting cast filling out the offense and a mediocre defense than it is for him to have an elite defense backing him up but to be surrounded with a mediocre supporting cast.

Unfortunately I consider it close to impossible to add enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to surround Love with an elite supporting cast for this season.

Packers are probably going to need to put DL towards the top of their draft need list, unless they can find a starting quality player in Free Agency.

The Seahawks signed former Packer and former Seahawk Jarren Reed. Being reported as a two-year deal worth up to $10.8 million

I guess the front office believes Wyatt is able to step in as a solid starter this season. That would reduce the need to address the defensive line early in the draft.

Thank you very much. I figured it would be before the draft. Thanks for confirming. The pick if taken would be for 2024 draft?

As far as I know the pick would end up being in this year's draft.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Any body have guesses as to what the Packers are looking for from the Jets? I think it's a first and second rounder this year - well let's say I expect they'll get a first and second rounder this year. If they're asking for two first rounders, which I think they are, the Jets aren't gonna want to go for that.

I don't see either team as having much leverage. Unless the Jets decide to go after Jackson, both the Packers and the Jets have sold out on this trade. Will be interesting to see how it ends.

 

[Poppa San]

Will be interesting to see how it ends.

My prediction is both fan bases will feel they got shafted. The journos will spin it with lipstick and mascara for the pig that it is.

 

[Magooch]

Any body have guesses as to what the Packers are looking for from the Jets? I think it's a first and second rounder this year - well let's say I expect they'll get a first and second rounder this year. If they're asking for two first rounders, which I think they are, the Jets aren't gonna want to go for that.

I don't see either team as having much leverage. Unless the Jets decide to go after Jackson, both the Packers and the Jets have sold out on this trade. Will be interesting to see how it ends.

That's kind of more or less where I'm at, but all three ways.

The Packers have limited leverage in that there seems to really be only one seriously interested party. Rodgers has publicly voiced a desire to leave (to that team, no less) and the team has also said they're ready to move on. Rodgers is still under contract and could (in theory) "force" his way back into GB and we'd have to foot the $60m bill.

The Jets have limited leverage in that they are very short on options. They will either have to spend more (both in terms of draft capital and money, most likely) to get a guy like Lamar, or settle for a considerably worse option like Tannehill or just going with Wilson. They have already given their fanbase the expectation of Rodgers or bust, and have already added Lazard (on what is IMO an inflated contract if not for the purpose of drawing Rodgers) and Hackett on top of that. And Rodgers himself has said he wants to play there, so the pressure is on them to get a deal done.

And even Rodgers himself has limited leverage in that he now finds himself under contract with a team that doesn't want him and only one seriously interested party. He doesn't have a no-trade clause, so while he doesn't HAVE to accept a trade elsewhere, his only real recourse is threatening retirement which of course sees him forfeit a LOT of money. His bonus isn't due until the start of the season so there's not much pressure to move the deal along in a hurry.

In that sense I don't feel like any of the three parties involved are really in a particularly advantageous position.

That said I still hold that there is now more pressure on the Jets to get a deal done than there is on the Packers to lower their demands to facilitate one.

Yes, we would take on a massive hit to carry both Rodgers and Love on the roster next season, but I have to think that the Packers FO would at least have a contingency plan in place if it were to come to that. I'm not sure precisely what that would look like but I doubt they signed and structured that contract for Rodgers without considering the possibility of having to pay him in 2023. And my math may be off but IIRC I think the difference in cap hit between trading him and keeping him ends up being "only" around 20m. And as I have said before I don't see Rodgers going nuclear and simply forcing his way back onto the GB roster. And even if that threat does exist I think GB has enough time and flexibility at the moment that they can likely call that bluff and ride it out for now.

I do also wonder if worst comes to worst and we're unable to get a deal with the Jets but Rodgers doesn't want to retire if they'd perhaps negotiate some kind of buyout/contract re-write. Rodgers retires, we pay some kind of buyout (less than currently owed) and in exchange relinquish his rights and he can sign elsewhere. Just completely spitballing there though.

 

[tynimiller]

It is the massive lack of real true leverage in the scenario which is why I still think the biggest return immediately will be players provided in it not picks and conditional picks in future is where potentially Day 1 picks come into play.