2023 Draft Talk

[Schultz]

I have GB picking unofficially
15-45-78-116-149-170-232-235-242-256

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I find charts like this one below, really helpful to keep track of picks and more importantly, approximate value of ours and other teams picks. So many of them to choose from now, with each one valuing picks a bit differently.

2023 NFL Trade Value Chart

www.drafttek.com

 

[Heyjoe4]

I find charts like this one below, really helpful to keep track of picks and more importantly, approximate value of ours and other teams picks. So many of them to choose from now, with each one valuing picks a bit differently.

2023 NFL Trade Value Chart

www.drafttek.com

This is cool Poker, thanks. So if I read this correctly, GB's 1st and 2nd round picks = 446, the same value as Detroit's #3 overall pick. So they could trade #15 and #45 for #6. If everyone were willing. I know that's an approximation, but is that how to read it?

And it looks like the assumption is that Chicago trades its #1 pick to Carolina, for...... something.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This is cool Poker, thanks. So if I read this correctly, GB's 1st and 2nd round picks = 446, the same value as Detroit's #3 overall pick. So they could trade #15 and #45 for #6. If everyone were willing. I know that's an approximation, but is that how to read it?

Well in "theory". However, just reading that example you gave, made me say "yes Packers, yes Packers, take the deal!!!!". Then I looked at some charts. First, Detroit has the #6 pick, so that changes things and then depending on your chart (they all vary) that you fly by, your draft philosophy, the board at the time, your needs, etc. it can really vary. Seems like most teams really value those high first round picks and want way more value than the charts show. Just look at what the Bears got to swap the #1 for the #9 pick with the Panthers.

Here is the chart I use the most. Again, just my preference and I think it just kind of gives you a "where to start" guideline.

2025 NFL Trade Value Chart

www.drafttek.com

 

[Pkrjones]

And it looks like the assumption is that Chicago trades its #1 pick to Carolina, for...... something.

Most are saying Chicago fleeced Carolina in the trade of #1 for #9, #61 in '23 + DJ Moore, and Carolina's '24 1st rounder & '25 2nd rounder. I thought #1 was worth much more.

Per this "new" trade chart the Bears got fleeced. IMHO, I think the real trade value chart is somewhere in between the "Jimmy Johnson chart from the '90's & this one.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Well in "theory". However, just reading that example you gave, made me say "yes Packers, yes Packers, take the deal!!!!". Then I looked at some charts. First, Detroit has the #6 pick, so that changes things and then depending on your chart (they all vary) that you fly by, your draft philosophy, the board at the time, your needs, etc. it can really vary. Seems like most teams really value those high first round picks and want way more value than the charts show. Just look at what the Bears got to swap with the #1 for the #9 pick with the Panthers.

Here is the chart I use the most. Again, just my preference and I think it just kind of gives you a "where to start" guideline.

2025 NFL Trade Value Chart

www.drafttek.com

Agreed. For example, Detroit is likely looking for a QB, and it's possible that one of the big 4 will be available. They wouldn't trade that away if that's the case. So yeah, good point, there are a lot of other considerations. And I didn't see the news that Chicago had traded #1. This is still a good chart for gauging the value of a trade.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Most are saying Chicago fleeced Carolina in the trade of #1 for #9, #61 in '23 + DJ Moore, and Carolina's '24 1st rounder & '25 2nd rounder. I thought #1 was worth much more.

Per this "new" trade chart the Bears got fleeced. IMHO, I think the real trade value chart is somewhere in between the "Jimmy Johnson chart from the '90's & this one.

I agree. I thought the Bears could have gotten a lot more for #1. Seems like their GM is playing a long game here, and maybe that's the way to play it. Hard to go from worst to first in one season. The Bears trade may be a good one, but no one will know for at least 5 years. That's a lot of uncertainty.

 

[tynimiller]

I agree. I thought the Bears could have gotten a lot more for #1. Seems like their GM is playing a long game here, and maybe that's the way to play it. Hard to go from worst to first in one season. The Bears trade may be a good one, but no one will know for at least 5 years. That's a lot of uncertainty.

They got a CRAP ton for that pick. Not just the draft equity this year and next but an instant WR1 added to their team. That is insanely good trade by them.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I agree. I thought the Bears could have gotten a lot more for #1. Seems like their GM is playing a long game here, and maybe that's the way to play it. Hard to go from worst to first in one season. The Bears trade may be a good one, but no one will know for at least 5 years. That's a lot of uncertainty.

In some years, they may have gotten more, but I think the fact that there are 4 QB's that people are talking about going in the first 10 picks, made it harder for them to negotiate a much better deal. Carolina obviously didn't want to take a chance that 1 of those QB's is still around at #9. Of course, they may have a favorite too.

The Bears are also still in a position at #9, that if a QB needy team behind them, sees a guy they really like is still on the board, the Bears may trade that #9 pick for even more picks. Those top 5 picks in the first round are super valuable and unless there was a slam dunk, way above the rest of the pack guy, I would be inclined to do exactly what the Bears did.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Per this "new" trade chart the Bears got fleeced. IMHO, I think the real trade value chart is somewhere in between the "Jimmy Johnson chart from the '90's & this one.

I think you could look at it from either side and say one came out ahead of the other. Trading for future picks is a real gamble in my opinion. All those future picks could be anywhere from being the first pick in the round, to the last pick. The Bears and their fans are going to be cheering for the Panthers to have 3 really crappy seasons in a row. The Seahawks scored well with the Russell Wilson trade. Russell had a bad year, as did Denver and as a result, the "future first round pick" that the Seahawks got in the deal, turned into the 5th pick in the draft.

 

[Schultz]

One crappy season down 2 to go.

 

[OldSchool101]

I have GB picking unofficially
15-45-78-116-149-170-232-235-242-256

Oh yeah you just reminded me. We exchange 6th-7th for Rams sending the Bohorquez Punter rental

 

[OldSchool101]

In some years, they may have gotten more, but I think the fact that there are 4 QB's that people are talking about going in the first 10 picks, made it harder for them to negotiate a much better deal. Carolina obviously didn't want to take a chance that 1 of those QB's is still around at #9. Of course, they may have a favorite too.

The Bears are also still in a position at #9, that if a QB needy team behind them, sees a guy they really like is still on the board, the Bears may trade that #9 pick for even more picks. Those top 5 picks in the first round are super valuable and unless there was a slam dunk, way above the rest of the pack guy, I would be inclined to do exactly what the Bears did.

#9 is still formidable and my guess is they’ll quite possibly choose the very best of OT, WR, TE or RB

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

#9 is still formidable and my guess is they’ll quite possibly choose the very best of OT, WR, TE or RB

If they don't trade back even more. But yeah, if there is a run on QB's, they will still get a top 5 player and perhaps the best player, from one of the other 21 positions.

 

[Schultz]

I would be shocked if the Bears didn't go OL or DL with pick #9. They just got a WR1, Kmet is the real deal at TE. RB is always a bad idea in round 1. IMO.

 

[tynimiller]

I would be shocked if the Bears didn't go OL or DL with pick #9. They just got a WR1, Kmet is the real deal at TE. RB is always a bad idea in round 1. IMO.

I agree with OL/DL but I also think Edge or DB wouldn't shock me.

 

[PikeBadger]

Most are saying Chicago fleeced Carolina in the trade of #1 for #9, #61 in '23 + DJ Moore, and Carolina's '24 1st rounder & '25 2nd rounder. I thought #1 was worth much more.

Per this "new" trade chart the Bears got fleeced. IMHO, I think the real trade value chart is somewhere in between the "Jimmy Johnson chart from the '90's & this one.

Totally disagree. Both teams are bereft of talent. Carolina essentially traded 5 should be eventual starters for 1. I'll take the 5 every time.

 

[gopkrs]

I would be shocked if the Bears didn't go OL or DL with pick #9. They just got a WR1, Kmet is the real deal at TE. RB is always a bad idea in round 1. IMO.

Except the bears have a history of some really great RBs. They could go for it.

 

[Schultz]

IMO they will draft a RB. If they re-sign Montgomery not until day 3. If they don't then day 2 IMO. IMO they like Herbert enough to not force an early RB pick.

 

[Mondio]

If the Bears were smart, they'd fix their line first. They apparently like their QB, now protect him. I hope they're not smart, go for the glitz guys, go for the glitz.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I agree with OL/DL but I also think Edge or DB wouldn't shock me.

Yeah the Bears need a lot. With the trade back, they did get some decent draft capital and a good player. Some of the draft capital won't hit until next year, but hey, that's how you build or rebuild a team without destroying the cap in FA.

They've certainly sent the message that Fields is their guy. I don't think Fields will be a Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, or Burrow - but he'll be good enough with his arm, and better with his feet.

Looks like a changing of the guard is coming in the NFC North. Pretty sure the Lions will be the pre-season favorites to win it this year. The Bears need at least another year, but a 8-9, 9-8 season would be a huge step forward for them.

 

[tynimiller]

Yeah the Bears need a lot. With the trade back, they did get some decent draft capital and a good player. Some of the draft capital won't hit until next year, but hey, that's how you build or rebuild a team without destroying the cap in FA.

They've certainly sent the message that Fields is their guy. I don't think Fields will be a Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, or Burrow - but he'll be good enough with his arm, and better with his feet.

Looks like a changing of the guard is coming in the NFC North. Pretty sure the Lions will be the pre-season favorites to win it this year. The Bears need at least another year, but a 8-9, 9-8 season would be a huge step forward for them.

Lions are my pick atm with so many unknowns in Love and Fields.

They won that trade for sure and honestly if Fields fails this season they’ll still have high draft equity to move for a QB again if needed in 2024

 

[OldSchool101]

Lions are my pick atm with so many unknowns in Love and Fields.

They won that trade for sure and honestly if Fields fails this season they’ll still have high draft equity to move for a QB again if needed in 2024

It looked like a lopsided trade until I did the math. Amazingly I came up within +-50 total draft points (+Add in, Chicago) after applying loss of time and DJ Moore’s value.

After watching Fields do what he did with a stripped Roster, I feel very comfortable that as the next 2 seasons unfold you’ll see him surge

Also I predict Ryan Poles is the best and most reasonable chance Chicago has at rebuilding. I know how you have fun drafting players, now watch what he does with those 8 top 150 overall college draft selections to get the train moving. He’s got an impressive resume of player acquisition. I have Ryan Poles as a strong Wild Card in our Division going forward.

I’m not a fan of Chicago, but I highly respect Ryan Poles and I absolutely love how he goes about his business under the radar. His silent, but direct involvement in KC had him as one of the hottest in the league in player acquisition. Ryan could teach a master’s class for finding player talent groupings throughout the draft.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It looked like a lopsided trade until I did the math. Amazingly I came up within +-50 total draft points (+Add in, Chicago) after applying loss of time and DJ Moore’s value.

After watching Fields do what he did with a stripped Roster, I feel very comfortable that as the next 2 seasons unfold you’ll see him surge

Also I predict Ryan Poles is the best and most reasonable chance Chicago has at rebuilding. I know how you have fun drafting players, now watch what he does with those 8 top 150 overall college draft selections to get the train moving. He’s got an impressive resume of player acquisition. I have Ryan Poles as a strong Wild Card in our Division going forward.

I’m not a fan of Chicago, but I highly respect Ryan Poles and I absolutely love how he goes about his business under the radar. His silent, but direct involvement in KC had him as one of the hottest in the league in player acquisition. Ryan could teach a master’s class for finding player talent groupings throughout the draft.

Looking back on last season, I wish that Rodgers hadn't owned the Bears on Dec. 4th. I think had the Packers lost that game, they would have "given themselves permission" to start Love in the remaining 4 games. Not only would that have probably given the front office more information on what they would do with both Rodgers and Love, but quite possibly, it would be the Packers and not the Bears with a bunch of picks in rounds 1 and 2.

 

[OldSchool101]

Looking back on last season, I wish that Rodgers hadn't owned the Bears on Dec. 4th. I think had the Packers lost that game, they would have "given themselves permission" to start Love in the remaining 4 games. Not only would that have probably given the front office more information on what they would do with both Rodgers and Love, but quite possibly, it would be the Packers and not the Bears with a bunch of picks in rounds 1 and 2.

I know. It was a tough call there and even if we got into a Wild Card scenario, we have to ask ourselves honestly if we were built for a deep playoff run. We just weren’t.

It’s a shame because imo Gutey is above average at acquiring players. However I think he’s below average at team building and the the more global logistics of roster building. He’s learning, but making key mistakes along the way.

Hopefully we stick this draft, because we don’t get to pick in the teens very often.