2023 Draft Talk

[tynimiller]

we should know more concretely of our draft placing over Christmas Dinner. For time being, we’re conceivably in that top #10-15 area. I’d be totally good with TE, Michael Mayer.

I am fine with us getting him at any spot from #1 - last pick However, I strongly feel picking him at #1 or #2 is poor use of the pick because a trade for TONS of draft equity no doubt was declined.

 

[OldSchool101]

I am fine with us getting him at any spot from #1 - last pick However, I strongly feel picking him at #1 or #2 is poor use of the pick because a trade for TONS of draft equity no doubt was declined.

Do you mean OUR #1 selection?
Or are you being sarcastic?
Hard to tell you’re pretty serious about the draft

 

[tynimiller]

Do you mean OUR #1 selection?
Or are you being sarcastic?
Hard to tell you’re pretty serious about the draft

If we had the #1 pick and we called Mayers number I would bhave ecstatic from the prospect we have coming our way. I would disagree it was best use of that pick and believe trading back would be best

 

[Packerbacker1996]

We need a solid O and D line before we draft anything else. If you can't win up front you ain't gonna win much of anything.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

With the "talk" of possibly moving Rasul Douglas to Safety I think another high CB pick will happen. Top 5 "needs" for 2023, IMHO, are: CB, TE, OT, WR, and possibly OLB.

I would prefer to re-sign Amos and keep Douglas at cornerback. In that case I don't see the need to spend an early rounder on a CB.

Do you mean OUR #1 selection?
Or are you being sarcastic?
Hard to tell you’re pretty serious about the draft

I'm quite sure @tynimiller was talking about if the Packers had the first overall selection in the draft.

 

[Pkrjones]

I would prefer to re-sign Amos and keep Douglas at cornerback. In that case I don't see the need to spend an early rounder on a CB.

Amos is currently the 22nd highest paid Safety in the league and as a UFA will count $7.95Mil against GB's cap due to "pushing out" his cap $. He turns 30 in April '23. I don't think he's worth the $9Mil/yr average that he was playing on, and not sure if I'd want to extend him (which would help spread-out his cap hit) for more than 3yr/$18Mil which would drop him down to 28th highest paid Safety. I'd rather spend a top 3 draft pick on a 21 year old who likes to hit.

 

[OldSchool101]

If we had the #1 pick and we called Mayers number I would bhave ecstatic from the prospect we have coming our way. I would disagree it was best use of that pick and believe trading back would be best

My initial feeling (from just doing some mocks and limited research ) is he’ll be gone by #20 overall. Partly because he’s really the only bonafide Day 1 at his position.
So effectually I agree with you. If we’re picking say… #14 overall and take Mayers? it’s a slight reach.

One thing teams can do in the draft (that I appreciate) is a mini trade-back. You can silently agree with a team moving up to not take your ideal 1 selection. That means trading back 2 spots only risks 1 other team. Often that 1 or 2 team standing in the way are not in the least bit needing the position/player we are most interested in.

Those 2 slots could get us a 3rd Round comp area or a late 2nd rounder in the next 2024 draft. That’s what I’d be watching. If a team behind us is needing a TE, I’d probably just pull the plug on them and draft Mayers in the teens.

 

[tynimiller]

My initial feeling (from just doing some mocks and limited research ) is he’ll be gone by #20 overall. Partly because he’s really the only bonafide Day 1 at his position.
So effectually I agree with you. If we’re picking say… #14 overall and take Mayers? it’s a slight reach.

One thing teams can do in the draft (that I appreciate) is a mini trade-back. You can silently agree with a team moving up to not take your ideal 1 selection. That means trading back 2 spots only risks 1 other team. Often that team standing in the way is not one that needs a TE as they may be totally set with many other needs.

Those 2 slots could get us a 3rd Round comp area or a late 2nd rounder in the next 2024 draft. That’s what I’d be watching. If a team behind us is needing a TE, I’d probably just pull the plug on them and draft Mayers.

I don’t disagree honeslty with this BUT I will say I truly have never liked a tight end prospect as much as him as he can truly do starter level work day 1 in every facet.

Call it a reach but I still will smile should we pick Mayer regardless of where that happens.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don’t disagree honeslty with this BUT I will say I truly have never liked a tight end prospect as much as him as he can truly do starter level work day 1 in every facet.

Call it a reach but I still will smile should we pick Mayer regardless of where that happens.

It certainly would be nice to furnish our QB with a relatively cheap, but dynamic O weapon. We’re just not accustomed to that type move at all.
Rodgers would probably sip on a shot of high grade Scotch contemplating such a move

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Amos is currently the 22nd highest paid Safety in the league and as a UFA will count $7.95Mil against GB's cap due to "pushing out" his cap $. He turns 30 in April '23. I don't think he's worth the $9Mil/yr average that he was playing on, and not sure if I'd want to extend him (which would help spread-out his cap hit) for more than 3yr/$18Mil which would drop him down to 28th highest paid Safety. I'd rather spend a top 3 draft pick on a 21 year old who likes to hit.

Amos, like a lot of players on defense, hasn't performed up to potential this season for some reason. If the Packers conclude Barry is the one to blame for it and that Amos will be able to regain his form prior to this year I would prefer to having him back over a rookie starting at safety next year.

I agree they shouldn't overpay to bring him back though.

If we’re picking say… #14 overall and take Mayers? it’s a slight reach.

I wouldn't consider selecting Mayer at #14 as a reach at all.

One thing teams can do in the draft (that I appreciate) is a mini trade-back. You can silently agree with a team moving up to not take your ideal 1 selection.

I highly doubt teams actually agree on not selecting a specific player but I believe general managers get a decent feel on which prosoects other teams are interested in while negotiating with them.

 

[Magooch]

Amos, like a lot of players on defense, hasn't performed up to potential this season for some reason. If the Packers conclude Barry is the one to blame for it and that Amos will be able to regain his form prior to this year I would prefer to having him back over a rookie starting at safety next year.

It's kind of veering OT for this particular thread but this is the big thing for me.
When considering personnel decisions it's easy to look and say "Player X has been down this year" and take that to mean they should be moved/not extended/etc on an individual level. But I think we also have to consider the larger context. In general...if one player is playing "down" then it's probably on the player (or at least some circumstances specifically relating to the individual). But if multiple players on a given unit are "down" then I typically find it rather unlikely that each one of them are *individually* trending downward. In those situations I think that's more reflective of coaching.

And so when we look at our defense I think we can simply ask: How many players are playing "up" and how many players are playing "down?" At the moment I would wager the "down" outweighs the "up," which to me suggests an issue with the coaching of that particular unit.

Obviously there are cap considerations to take into account and sometimes you simply can't afford to bring back a given player even if you think it's not their "fault" but I would be hesitant to make any significant and/or large-scale changes to our defensive personnel when IMO the issue is not entirely on the players themselves...

 

[OldSchool101]

I highly doubt teams actually agree on not selecting a specific player but I believe general managers get a decent feel on which prosoects other teams are interested in while negotiating with them.

Sure. Get a feel. Yeah you betcha like this


There’s many approaches with their GM like..
“Ok I’ll trade with you.. but if Christian Watson just happens to get selected by you then your Momma won’t have any feeling after I club her legs like Tonya Harding on a skater”, like that kinda feel?

Or do you more like telling their GM
“Just remember one thing…. if you choose a WR? that it’s very hard to talk without a tongue”

I kinda like the tougher Harding approach myself.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It is now official, the Packers were awarded 2 compensatory picks in the upcoming draft. A 5th and a 7th. I could be wrong, but originally, I thought they were predicted to receive 3 picks.

Packers Awarded Two Compensatory Draft Picks

www.msn.com

 

[Heyjoe4]

It is now official, the Packers were awarded 2 compensatory picks in the upcoming draft. A 5th and a 7th. I could be wrong, but originally, I thought they were predicted to receive 3 picks.

Packers Awarded Two Compensatory Draft Picks

www.msn.com

They have like 4 picks in round 7 I think and none in round 6. And they will certainly get picks if they deal Rodgers.

I don't have any stats, but it seems Gluten has done better in rounds 4 through 7 than 1 through 3. Maybe, maybe not.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't have any stats, but it seems Gluten has done better in rounds 4 through 7 than 1 through 3. Maybe, maybe not.

Depends on how you "rate" draft classes. No doubt that Round 3 has been Gute's Achilles heal. So much that, I would almost prefer he trade that damn pick away!

Also, I think the only drafts that should be fully graded "now" are his first two, since the rookie deals are now done and the other 3 drafts are still in progress of evauating.

In looking at just those 2 b(2018 and 2019), I would say he has done well in rounds 1-2. Only full bust was Josh Jones and the jury is still out on Savage, but he played well in his first 3 seasons. None of the round 3 and later are with still with the team in those 2 drafts, so that isn't very good. To be honest, his later rounds (3-7) and not looking at 2022 just yet, besides maybe MVS, have been somewhat awful.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

 

[Heyjoe4]

Depends on how you "rate" draft classes. No doubt that Round 3 has been Gute's Achilles heal. So much that, I would almost prefer he trade that damn pick away!

Also, I think the only drafts that should be fully graded "now" are his first two, since the rookie deals are now done and the other 3 drafts are still in progress of evauating.

In looking at just those 2 b(2018 and 2019), I would say he has done well in rounds 1-2. Only full bust was Josh Jones and the jury is still out on Savage, but he played well in his first 3 seasons. None of the round 3 and later are with still with the team in those 2 drafts, so that isn't very good. To be honest, his later rounds (3-7) and not looking at 2022 just yet, besides maybe MVS, have been somewhat awful.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

Thanks for the details. Yeah I retract my rounds 4 thru 8 comments for those two years.

And yeah, round 3 has been awful. Sternberger and Rodgers come to mind. I’m sure I’m missing some.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

And yeah, round 3 has been awful. Sternberger and Rodgers come to mind. I’m sure I’m missing some.

It has been the kiss of death for Gute:

2018: Oren Burks (got some playing time out of him, but meh)
2019: Jace Sternberger (bust city)
2020: Josiah DeGuara (not a fan, some like his blocking, but meh)
2021: Amari Rodgers (bust city)
2022: Sean Rhyan (already talk of giving up on him)

 

[Heyjoe4]

It has been the kiss of death for Gute:

2018: Oren Burks (got some playing time out of him, but meh)
2019: Jace Sternberger (bust city)
2020: Josiah DeGuara (not a fan, some like his blocking, but meh)
2021: Amari Rodgers (bust city)
2022: Sean Rhyan (already talk of giving up on him)

Thx. Was Burks a TE? And what position does Rhyan play? That’s how bad the round is. I don’t remember Rhyan.

 

[Schultz]

GB was originally expected to garner another 7th round comp pick by the people who predict these type of things.

 

[tynimiller]

I’d trade up or back out of the third at this point if I’m Gute lol


If the Jets offer a third in the trade deal I’m not doing it lol “Rather have a fourth” lol

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Thx. Was Burks a TE? And what position does Rhyan play? That’s how bad the round is. I don’t remember Rhyan.

Burks was an ILB and special teamer. We did get some playing time out of him, but he was pretty bad at ILB.

Rhyan was drafted as an OL. guessing the plan is/was to play him at RT? He was suspended in 2022, his rookie season for 6 games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Burks was an ILB and special teamer. We did get some playing time out of him, but he was pretty bad at ILB.

Rhyan was drafted as an OL. guessing the plan is/was to play him at RT? He was suspended in 2022, his rookie season for 6 games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.

Thanks Poker. How quickly we (I) forget. Yeah I remember Burks now. Hopefully Walker is for real at ILB. Well, as long as he doesn’t get tossed from games…

I’ll keep an eye on Ryan. Bakh won’t last forever. My guess is that if they trade Rodgers for picks, they’ll deal with OT after S and TE. Could get em all in first two rounds.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I’ll keep an eye on Ryan. Bakh won’t last forever. My guess is that if they trade Rodgers for picks, they’ll deal with OT after S and TE. Could get em all in first two rounds.

If Love is the new QB, I believe that puts them in rebuild or at least regroup mode. A great way to start it, would be to have 4-5 picks in the first 2 rounds. Now nothing is guaranteed on draft picks, but the more high valued darts you have, chances are, you will hit a target or two. Also, getting the cap under control by 2024, so Gute can go out and plug a few holes with quality FA's is critical too.

 

[OldSchool101]

As far as Compensatory selections Looks the Packers get:
#170 (5th)
#257 (7th)

Holy Mackerel go check out the 49ers! They get Compensatory picks:
#99,#101,#102 (3rd’s);
#173 (5th);
#216 (6th);
#253,#255 (7ths);
4 of those were for their Coaches getting either a GM position or Head Coaching position elsewhere.

 

[OldSchool101]

As of today we are picking
1 15(15)
2 14(45)
3 15(78)
4 14(116)
5 15(151)
5 35(171)
6 14(191)
7 15(234)
7 37(256)
7 40(259)