2020 Salary Cap Situation

[Pokerbrat2000]

Any thoughts on this? Does the math look right? Are there any missing numbers? Is Clark worth $17 mil / year? What is the 30% rule? Seriously, what is the 30% rule? I thought that only applied in the crossover from the 2010 uncapped year to new CBA years in 2011 and following.

I know some of those answers, but I'd like you to do the work since you posted it.

I agree with you, but as I am reading this, all I could picture was....

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[HardRightEdge]

A few words on the 30% rule and Ken Ingalls' projection of a 5 year, $85.75 mil (cough, cough) Clark contract. The idea is that the annual salary increases after 2020, interpreted as "cash payouts" including roster and in-season bonuses but not signing bonuses, can't go up more that 30% from year to year thereby limiting the potential to backload the contract. Here's Ingall's math:

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Here's the language from the CBA:

"No NFL Player Contract extending into a season beyond the Final League Year may provide for an annual increase in Salary, excluding any amount attributable to a signing bonus as defined in Section 6(b)(iii) above, of more than 30% of the Salary provided for in the Final League Year, per year, either in the season after the Final League Year or in any subsequent season covered by the Player Contract."

Which begs the question, how is it that Rodgers' and Wentz's contracts, to take two quick examples, do not conform to this rule? I wouldn't assume the rule applies to Clark since it is not clear when it does and does not apply, or even if this provision was tossed out in a subsequent amendment.

As for those $ amounts, the highest paid 3-4 DT under a recent multi-year contract is Eddie Goldman at $10.5 mil / year over 4 years:

https://overthecap.com/position/3-4-defensive-tackle/

Even if we threw in 3-4 DEs, which Clark isn't, Ingalls' numbers would place Clark as the second highest paid 3-4 DL in the league on a per year basis behind only Aaron Donald:

https://overthecap.com/position/3-4-defensive-end/

Clark's a good player, not a great player, and frankly he got his a*s handed to him like everybody else in that SF game. If anything close to $17 mil / year is what it would take to sign him, over 5 f*cking years no less, I'd pass, make him play on the 5th. year option, and plan on finding a replacement for 2021. I don't believe those $'s or that eventuality will come to pass.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I agree with you, but as I am reading this, all I could picture was....

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Not entirely.

 

[Jason Edens]

Any thoughts on this? Does the math look right? Are there any missing numbers? Is Clark worth $17 mil / year? What is the 30% rule? Seriously, what is the 30% rule? I thought that only applied in the crossover from the 2010 uncapped year to new CBA years in 2011 and following.

I know some of those answers, but I'd like you to do the work since you posted it.

I don't see Clark being worth $17 mil / year under the current cap. We need a second DT, and you can afford two mid tier DTs at that price and be better off as a whole imo. He is a really good player, and if he can get that kind of money somewhere else, more power to him. I agree @HardRightEdge make him play on his 5th year contract, and make plans next year.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The 5th year option on Kenny Clark is $7.59M. Signing him to a 5 year deal worth $17.15/year, with $43.5 M guaranteed would be foolish on the Packers part. I like Kenny and would love to see him stay in Green Bay, but not for that kind of money, he isn't THAT big of a consistent difference maker IMO.

Spotrac has his "market value" even higher @ $18.2M.year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/kenny-clark-18975/market-value/

Play him on his 5th year deal, which is what I think every team should do in this situation and then evaluate towards the end of the season. If you can't resign him, let him walk and take the credit towards a potential compensatory pick.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

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There's no reason to save $7.5 million of cap space for in-season transactions, his other numbers are a bit off as well. In addition I highly doubt Clark and Bulaga will account for a combined cap hit of $24.25 million in 2020.

Clark's a good player, not a great player, and frankly he got his a*s handed to him like everybody else in that SF game. If anything close to $17 mil / year is what it would take to sign him, over 5 f*cking years no less, I'd pass, make him play on the 5th. year option, and plan on finding a replacement for 2021. I don't believe those $'s or that eventuality will come to pass.

In my opinion Clark is an elite player the Packers desperately need to keep even after the 2020 season. He didn't perform up to expectations last season mostly because of a back injury that kept him out of practice the week before the NFCCG as well.

 

[gbgary]

the Packers are in win-now mode. they really have no choice but to extend/resign clark and bulaga. if they don't then what's the point of the last 2 off-seasons? anything less is steps backward. clark is young and at the peak of his abilities. bulaga may be coming off his best season. rodgers' health is paramount...lanes for jones. can you imagine the middle of the D without clark? they're really up against it in a lot of ways...cap wise especially. they're at least a season, probably two, of having to decide to blow things up.

Spotrac has his "market value" even higher @ $18.2M.year.

yup. salaries, at every position, are only going up. a $10m bump in the cap gets eaten up with the snap of your fingers.

Any thoughts on this? (the ingalls' tweet)

(retweeted by aaron nagler) just some info. a dose of probable reality.

 

[gopkrs]

There's no reason to save $7.5 million of cap space for in-season transactions, his other numbers are a bit off as well. In addition I highly doubt Clark and Bulaga will account for a combined cap hit of $24.25 million in 2020.



In my opinion Clark is an elite player the Packers desperately need to keep even after the 2020 season. He didn't perform up to expectations last season mostly because of a back injury that kept him out of practice the week before the NFCCG as well.

Backs can be troublesome. Who's to know if he will continue to have back problems? I guess the GB docs have to make a guess about that.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

they really have no choice but to extend/resign clark

I disagree with that, they have the choice to make him play on his 5th year option. Frankly, I am sick of teams panicking and handing out new contracts, when there is a year or more still on the old. I mean I get it, you want to keep the player happy and not potentially lose him because he feels you didn't commit to him earlier. However, with how much guaranteed money there is in today's contracts, I think careful thought has to be given to contracts such as Clark's. If you guess wrong and his playing level doesn't increase or drops off, you just handicapped your team with having to carry that contract. Also and I hope I am wrong, but with the kind of money these guys are now getting upfront, is it just me or have we seen an increase in the number of holders of these new huge contracts, drop-off in level of play once the ink is dry? Hard to blame someone that just tucked enough cash in the bank to take care of him and 30 families for a lifetime, if his commitment to a dangerous job drops off a bit.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Spotrac has his "market value" even higher @ $18.2M.year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/kenny-clark-18975/market-value/

Spotrac has Martinez's "market value" as $16.3 mil per year:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/blake-martinez-19085/market-value/

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in those estimates.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I wouldn't put a lot of stock in those estimates.

Agreed, was just pointing out that "predicted values" of Free agents are all over the board. I think some of them use a very simplified program of calculating their projected valued based on their previous years stats and how those rank among those at their positions and how they are paid. Martinez is a great example of that. IF some team is willing to pay him $16.3M/year, I have some old bridges I would like to sell them.

I will say, out of all the Packer potential free agents, I am the most curious as to what Blake ends up getting paid. I can see a fan from Dallas only seeing his Stats and think that they are getting one hell of a player for only $15M/year.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

the Packers are in win-now mode. they really have no choice but to extend/resign clark and bulaga.

The Packers definitely have choices. As Poker correctly pointed out Clark is under contract for the 2020 season and they could replace Bulaga with a combination of Veldheer or another defent priced veteran and an early draft pick, although that would be a risky move.

 

[gbgary]

The Packers definitely have choices. As Poker correctly pointed out Clark is under contract for the 2020 season and they could replace Bulaga with a combination of Veldheer or another decent priced veteran and an early draft pick, although that would be a risky move.

not extending clark exposes him to being poached in free agency. he has all the leverage. the only choice the Packers have is extend or trade him. losing him by whatever manner is a step backward.
as for bulaga, it's re-sign him or go with something of less quality (a step back). you end up keeping a TE in to help (which limits rodgers weapons) or exposing rodgers to more sacks/injury. more steps backward. moving an interior guy out weakens the interior again. an area that they've only now got shored up from the past.

martinez? i think a lot depends on how the next team uses him. here he sits on an island by himself and is held back away from the LOS. they don't want him attacking much. when he does he seems to get the sack a lot. his tackle totals aren't anything to sneeze at. the Packers will draft someone to take his place in round one and keep their fingers crossed.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

not extending clark exposes him to being poached in free agency. he has all the leverage. the only choice the Packers have is extend or trade him.

You are assuming that Clark himself wants to sign a new contract right now. Maybe he and his agent want to wait until after free agency, when his value might be driven higher based on FA signings.

I also don't agree with your logic. The Packers exercised his 5th year option and thus have the 2020 season to offer Clark a new contract and in doing so, could base it on how he is performing. He cannot get poached in free agency this year. 2021 would be the year he hits Free Agency if we don't resign him before the start of the new 2021 league year.

I think your assumption is based on your feeling Clark will just get better, so pay him now and try to save a few bucks? While you could be right, what happens if he gets hurt or his play drops off?

You of all people, the one who complained about resigning Rodgers well before his contract was up should see this? I actually agreed with wanting the Packers to wait on Rodgers extension.

Whatever the Packers do with Clark, it will be a pretty decent sized contract with a decent sized guarantee. If they feel like his play will keep getting better and it works with this years cap, then pay him now, if he is willing to sign. However, if the price tag is too high and they can't justify the cap hit, let him play out his 5th year and let him walk. Should be a nice plus entry on the Compensatory Pick calculation.

 

[gbgary]

clark-

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bulaga-

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[gbgary]

You are assuming that Clark himself wants to sign a new contract right now.

guaranteed money talks.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

guaranteed money talks.

If I am Clark's agent, Doug Hendrickson, I might be saying "Hey Big Fella, the Packers are really eager to give you a new deal and not play you on your 5th year option. However, their offer is lower than what I think you are worth. Let's sit this out until after Free Agency and let them see what guys with lesser talent than you are being paid, their offer will go up."

Now if he fears that Kenny could get hit by a bus or busted with 420 lbs of pot anytime soon, sure, then take the money and run!

 

[tynimiller]

Now if he fears that Kenny could get hit by a bus or busted with 420 lbs of pot anytime soon, sure, then take the money and run!

So you're saying IF he signs an extension here soon....he is a drug dealer or user....we heard it here first folks! LOL!

 

[gopkrs]

guaranteed money talks.

Yes, absolutely. However, they could wait and do the contract during the season. Cash still counts and we can see about his back.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So you're saying IF he signs an extension here soon....he is a drug dealer or user....we heard it here first folks! LOL!

LOL.....well we never really know do we? That is why all of this guaranteed money is a bit scary. What I was trying to point out though was the fact that I think most people assume a player is sitting there waiting to sign a new deal ASAP. I don't think that is always the case. A player and his agent might be strategically waiting things out, guessing that the longer they wait, the higher said players contract goes. There is no doubt that Clark had a really solid 2019 season, which put him in the drivers seat for his new contract. Then again, he could have gotten injured and be left wondering what his future holds. All about timing and circumstances.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

not extending clark exposes him to being poached in free agency. he has all the leverage. the only choice the Packers have is extend or trade him. losing him by whatever manner is a step backward.
as for bulaga, it's re-sign him or go with something of less quality (a step back). you end up keeping a TE in to help (which limits rodgers weapons) or exposing rodgers to more sacks/injury. more steps backward. moving an interior guy out weakens the interior again. an area that they've only now got shored up from the past.

martinez? i think a lot depends on how the next team uses him. here he sits on an island by himself and is held back away from the LOS. they don't want him attacking much. when he does he seems to get the sack a lot. his tackle totals aren't anything to sneeze at. the Packers will draft someone to take his place in round one and keep their fingers crossed.

The Packers could franchise tag Clark after next season as well so him having all the leverage simply isn't true.

While it would be risky to let Bulaga leave in free agency Gutekunst shouldn't re-sign at any cost. Although difficult it's possible to find an equivalent talent in the draft.

Martinez most likely isn't worth what at least another team will offer to sign him, therefore it would be smart for the Packers to move on from him.

There is no doubt that Clark had a really solid 2019 season, which put him in the drivers seat for his new contract.

Actually Clark had kind of a down year for his standards last season most likely because of back issues. Therefore it might be cheaper for the Packers to extend him at this point.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Actually Clark had kind of a down year for his standards last season most likely because of back issues. Therefore it might be cheaper for the Packers to extend him at this point.

I said that based on what I read and I think that was taking into consideration his back issues as well. The article talked about how even with the injury, his game had stepped up. Despite his back, his snap count went up 149 from his previous high and his stats were about equal to or higher in some categories to any previous season. His back issue, depending on its status, might be a reason to be cautious about extending him. No doubt Clark is a good player, but he is going to require a lot of cabbage to stay and if that back is chronic, I would be hesitant on how long and how much you lock him up for.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I said that based on what I read and I think that was taking into consideration his back issues as well. The article talked about how even with the injury, his game had stepped up.

I don't agree that Clark stepped up his game last season.

While he was dominant in several contests there were others in which he didn't have an impact, possibly because of his back issues.

If the Packers medical staff feels optimistic about his long term prognosis it might be a good time to extend him at this point.

 

[HardRightEdge]

yup. salaries, at every position, are only going up. a $10m bump in the cap gets eaten up with the snap of your fingers.

Since $10 mil gets eaten up with the snap of the fingers, salaries cannot be going up sharply at all positions, at least not across an entire roster. A 6% bump in cap is still 6% to be spread across the roster. Below the surface of big name, high ticket, yada yadas, something else is going on. Can you guess what it might be?

 

[superdan]

Loving what I am seeing in this forum, first time here.

I haven't read much discussion about releasing Jamaal Williams for the cap savings. It wouldn't be the first time the Packers have said "sorry, we'd like to keep you, but can't at this increased price." Cut him & save just over $2M. There is always a chance we could refresh his contract to keep him for less as well.