2020 Salary Cap Situation

[HardRightEdge]

WR #2?

Not that, but now that I think about it I may be desperate for a golf swing change that takes pressure off my back.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's time again to make the donuts I suppose.

The NFL has advised teams that the 2020 cap will be in the range of $196.8 - $201.2 mil.

Last season in came in at the lower end of the estimated range, $188.2 mil against the estimated range of $187.0 - $191.1 mil. TV ratings were better this year. Let's use the mid-range of the estimate, $199.0 mil cap for 2020.

Various sources have the Packer cap carryover in the $5 - $6 mil range. Taking the midpoint of $5.5 mil, that gives the Packers working available cap of $204.5 mil.

The Packers currently have 43 players under contract for 2020 with a cap cost of about $174.5 mil after some minor dead cap. Lets assume Graham will be cut which takes us to 42 players with a cap cost of 166.5 mil.

That gets us to available cap space of $38 mil.

If we assume Clark will be signed to a 4 year backloaded deal, we can reckon that's a wash relative to his $7.7 mil 5th. year option. On the subject of backloading, it's hard to see Gutekunst going as extreme as last year with those 4 primary free agents. As contracts stand now, the difference between 2019 and 2021 cap costs for Rodgers, Adams, the Smiths, Amos and Turner is an increase of $41 mil. With Clark on a backloaded deal, that increase would go to over $50 mil. It's hard to think the new CBA in 2021 will make up that 2 year difference. 2021 also has a more difficult free agency class than 2020's: Bakhtiari, Jones, King and Linsley. Replicating last year's free agency haul is not likely short of a "2021 be damned" approach.

Anyway, lets work with that $38 mil as baseline. The draft class will come in somewhere around $7.5 mil for the 10 picks assuming the conditional pick for Reggie Gilbert comes through. Then subtract another $500,000 for an undrafted rookie filling out the 53 man roster. Knock off another $3 - $4 mil for practice squad and the injury replacement reserve.

So, what you have to work with is a draft class plus $26.5 mil in free cap space.

To "stay even", you have to re-sign or replace in kind the following starters: Bulaga, Graham, Martinez and Tramon Williams, with no clear up-and-comer replacements on the roster, along with Crosby and Ervin on special teams. I did not include Allison in that list as expendable or Lazard as an inexpensive exclusive rights free agent. Then there are rotational players like Lewis and Fackrel who have some value, though I think to make this all work you have to count on Gary to make the step up next season.

There's some discussion of releasing Linsley and Taylor in addition to Graham to pick up an additional $13 mil in cap which would bump available cap to $39.5
mil. That would take the current roster of OLs down to Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Turner and Patrick the presumtive center, with the remainder being Light, Madison, Nijman and Leglue. Given that collection of bench players, just guys barring some surprise I would not expect, you'd be looking at finding a starting RT and two bench players who can play if need be. Given other needs, I don't think you can get rid of both Linsley and Taylor without acquiring a backup of some value.

Patrick showed enough that I would not have a problem picking up the $8.5 mil in releasing Linsley to get the free space up to the $35 mil range. If not retaining Taylor then acquiring a similarly priced vet who can swing G/T or at least play both OT positions would be needed. I find Veldheer something of a mystery. Given the demand and prices for OTs and given how well he played in relief, it's somewhat hard to explain the weak demand for his services on the waiver wire. At 33 years old, but with most of a year's worth of R&R, and experience at both OT positions and even some OG, a Taylor-out-Veldheer-in move on a one year deal would be a net add if he has no market as a starter.

All in all, given the number of key players with heavy cap backloads going into 2021 along with the free agents coming up after 2020, I don't think you're going to see four name free agents this go round. Maybe 2, with something more than this season's $5 or $6 mil carryover going into 2021.

The toughest job will probably be an getting the ILB position where it needs to be.

I think we'll need to get 3 starters out of this draft to go with a couple of decent free agents and Gary having some impact in year 2. In the end, you have to stack drafts to get where you want to go regardless. It gets harder after 2020.

Really good analysis, given you’re working with some unknowns (for ex, can Bulaga be resigned?). But the weaknesses better be addressed this year cause if I’m reading your analysis right, 2021 is going to be hard just to stand pat.

I do agree that if/when big bucks go out in FA, it has to be for a stud ILB. Next is a veteran WR, although it’s possible an impact WR can be acquired in the draft, just unlikely picking at #30.

Anyway, great job.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Really good analysis, given you’re working with some unknowns (for ex, can Bulaga be resigned?). But the weaknesses better be addressed this year cause if I’m reading your analysis right, 2021 is going to be hard just to stand pat.

I do agree that if/when big bucks go out in FA, it has to be for a stud ILB. Next is a veteran WR, although it’s possible an impact WR can be acquired in the draft, just unlikely picking at #30.

Anyway, great job.

Thanks. By the way, where are going with that gun in your hand?

 

[Heyjoe4]

Thanks. By the way, where are going with that gun in your hand?

I wish I had a nickel for ever time I’ve been asked that. Then again, I’ve been leading with my chin....... But to answer your question, I’m goin’ down Mexico way.

 

[OldSchool101]

Could Sullivan step in and play to Willams' level? I don't know. But is it more likely than Jackson or Holman have a light go on? Probably. Is it more likely than, for example, Keke making a second year jump? Maybe, maybe not, and that goes to priorities.

I like your thought on snap counts affecting the priority to address a particular position. I see a similar type philosophy with the numbers of players at a particular position. As an example, Obviously if a given team uses 6 CB’s and just 3 TE’s there’s a relative greater need at the CB position. You could further that and also look at it as a hybrid comparison by taking the top tap snaps from the CB position verses the DL position etc..

That said, I believe the D system being utilized in GB is highly reliant on having, at minimum, two DL that are highly effective. While that’s somewhat subjective, I believe GB has ONE bonafide great DL in Kenny Clark. This is just a theory, but in a hypothetical scenario, had GB had TWO Kenny Clark’s in the middle? I believe it would have impacted the D dramatically in a domino effect. The better example than Lancaster for me would be Dean Lowry, he’s a good backup on nearly any top 10 D, but he’s not nearly graded high enough for #2 interior DL.

Having inside pressure would force the play to be transacted outside the interior pocket. That, in turn, flushes the ball carrier (QB, RB etc..) into the lanes of our OLB. That is the strength of the GB Defense and that concept needs to be addressed. It’s IMO the most overlooked upgrade needed (Right behind the obvious ILB and WR).

With another above average grade Veteran presence (Think Wilkerson before he was injured etc..) worked into the Lineup and another formidable LB, things would instantly look better.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Jones and Williams got rookie contract performace escalators. Subtract $3 mil from availalbe cap.

 

[tynimiller]

So been thinking...the window is short, BUT I'm personally wondering if Linsley could potentially be a fairly decent piece of trade bait out there instead of a total cut and save situation. With the depth at WR in this class, having some back end round equity...personally I'd think a team in need of a Center and has the cash Linsley would be worth a 4th OR maybe a 5th and toss a 7th.

Get something in return for a starting level guy still, that many argue just isn't on the Packers plans for the future.

 

[Mondio]

I don't think Linsley would bring much in trade. I don't think there is anything exceptional in his game. he's ok at center, some days better than others, but he's really like so many other centers in the league I don't think that level of production is unattainable for people.

Not that it isn't valuable for a team to have, it is, but when you attach his price tag i'm not sure anyone gives up a pick at any level to take that. 8.5 million for what could be a 1 year rental. If someone got 2-3 years out of that 8.5 million we might find a willing trade partner.

But with things as they are, I see zero chance he is traded and i'm 50/50 that he isn't a cap saving cut before the season starts.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't think Linsley would bring much in trade. I don't think there is anything exceptional in his game. he's ok at center, some days better than others, but he's really like so many other centers in the league I don't think that level of production is unattainable for people.

Not that it isn't valuable for a team to have, it is, but when you attach his price tag i'm not sure anyone gives up a pick at any level to take that. 8.5 million for what could be a 1 year rental. If someone got 2-3 years out of that 8.5 million we might find a willing trade partner.

But with things as they are, I see zero chance he is traded and i'm 50/50 that he isn't a cap saving cut before the season starts.

IF he is of the average level play, than that is even more reason we must cut him. $8.5 Million should be providing far more than IMO. He contributes more to his value than Graham, but if he is merely as you described and viewed as such by Gute and Co. than they would be ignorant not to kick him to the curb.

 

[gbgary]

down to $21.9m per spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

$23.7 per overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

According to NFL.com, the league's 32 teams have been informed that the projected salary cap for 2020 will fall somewhere between $196.8 million to $201.2 million. On the low end, that's a 4.5% increase over the 2019 salary cap, and on the high end, that's a 6.9% increase over the $188.2 million cap that teams were given for 2019.

 

[HardRightEdge]

down to $21.9m per spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

$23.7 per overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

The long answer is in the OP with adjustments now required for Jones' and Williams' performance escalators. Those escalators are applied per the CBA and based on snap counts, a little less than a $3 mil deduction is cap sapce.

Here's a revised shorter answer to get to available cap for free agency:

Take the midpoint of those numbers, actually 22.0 mil and 23.7 mil: call it $22.9 mil for 51 players currently under contract on both lists, then apply the following adjustments:

• Add $8 mil with Graham's eventual release.
• Subtract about $7.5 mil for the the 10 future players in the 2020 draft class. By the time you get down to the third round they're all fairly close to the rookie minimum.
• Add back about $5.2 mil for the 10 guys at the bottom of the current salary list that they replace. If anybody from the 3rd. round down is cut, it's pretty much a wash vs. minimum guys already under contract.
• Subtract $1 mil to get to 53 players with a couple of minimum salary guys added
• Subtract $1.4 mil for the practice squad
• Subtract a conservative $2 mil held in reserve for minimum salary injury replacements. Guys on IR and PUP as well as their replcements all count against the cap.

That gets you to $24.2 mil available for free agency.

Clarks extention can be cap neutral for 2020 if they backload the cap with a large signing bonus.

After that, it comes down to whether the Packers are ants or grasshoppers. The 2021 cap cost for core players under contract escalates very substantially from 2019 to 2021 with several core players hitting free agency, notably Bakhtiari, Jones, King and Linsley.

The current cap cost for the 27 or 28 players under contract for 2021 is about $142 mil according to the two usual sources, not including Clark or those four 2021 free agents.

Gutekunst's statement about being less active in free agency this year has more to do with 2021 than it does with available 2020 cap space. The 2019 cap costs for the Smiths, Amos and Turner was $23.4 mil. A repeat fits narrowly under the cap space whether Bulaga is included in that group or not. But to do that would require heavy backloading of the cap hits in those new contracts and starts to blow out the cap space in future years.

As always, if you pay a free agent $15 mil per year and that's the performance you get, then he's an 0.500 player. Stacking drafts, getting starters, core players and stars on cheap rookie deals is essential.

The one wild card, of course, is the outcome of the new CBA taking affect in 2021. While Murphy may have some inkling of where this is going at this stage I doubt anybody has a firm grasp on what the team cap number will be in 2021. They don't even know how many games they will be playing at this stage.

 

[mradtke66]

IF he is of the average level play, than that is even more reason we must cut him. $8.5 Million should be providing far more than IMO. He contributes more to his value than Graham, but if he is merely as you described and viewed as such by Gute and Co. than they would be ignorant not to kick him to the curb.

I would tend to rate Linsley higher than Mondio, but he's otherwise spot on. 8.5M for 1 year isn't worth much. Any team trading for him would either be renting him or have to immediately extend him. That lowers his value on the market.

If, to make up a number, he's a 3rd round player, his contract might lower his true value to a 5th. Possibly even a 6th. That said, a conditional 7th is still more than nothing, so if the team elects to move on, I'd prefer that conditional 7th.

As far as why we might cut him. Patrick is way cheaper and did a suitable job subbing for Linsley. Assuming he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, that net 8 million in cap space could be more useful anywhere is. Moving Patrick to starting center means you lost your interior swing player, so perhaps we'd keep Taylor to be a backup? Perhaps we'd spend a little of that savings on a backup? Maybe invest a 5th rounder for a project?

 

[HardRightEdge]

It might be a good idea to release Linsley, but I doubt that happens. It would be pretty unusual to release a healthy core player in his prime. Further, it would require drafting fairly high for C/G depth, a pick that could be applied to other needs. That may need to be done already at the OT position with Bulaga in limbo and Bakhtiari's impending free agency after 2020. Even with Bulaga signed, there's no OT bench to speak of.

This is not a Daniels parallel. Daniels had been showing some decline in performance along with health issues, while hitting the 30 year old mark.

I suppose Linsley might yield something in trade with a team in acute need for a center with the intent to extend him into a second contract, along the lines of the Packer's signing of Amos. Still, with that cap number for 2020 and the uncertainty of what that extension would require until he's actually in house would keep trade compensation to a minimum.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’m also leaning a guess that Linsley is here in 2020. But IMO much will depend on the decision with Bulaga and several others in order to see a better picture of the agreed direction. I would personally be reluctant to switch out 2 pieces in a OL squad that has been largely successful. It also takes time to congeal in a semi-intricate O system and it’s somewhat risky to experiment at this point. Although “we were looking for a Center when we found Corey” so to speak.

That said, GB does have alternatives if they felt the need to use the monetary advantages of improving at other positions, extend another current veteran player etc..

Cezar Ruiz is just one quick example of several a player who won’t command top draft resources (likely late 2nd day or early 3rd day (similar to Linsley’s selection)) that could provide alternative competition with existing, internal top prospects for Linsley’s successor. Linsley’s potential net cap savings is not going unnoticed and has already been a discussion behind closed doors. Not to mention the effect of balancing compensatory values in the near future.

 

[Jason Edens]

Gutekunst's statement about being less active in free agency this year has more to do with 2021 than it does with available 2020 cap space. The 2019 cap costs for the Smiths, Amos and Turner was $23.4 mil. A repeat fits narrowly under the cap space whether Bulaga is included in that group or not. But to do that would require heavy backloading of the cap hits in those new contracts and starts to blow out the cap space in future years.

I appreciate your analysis. Based on the quote, wouldn't it make sense to target a player that is willing to play for a contender on a one year offer. I believe he tried to trade for Emannuel Sanders but San Fran just beat us out. I can't find it now but I read an article that put forward a case for us to try and pick up Watkins on a one year deal. Perhaps we could do that and find a more long term solution in the upper or mid round of the draft. We really do need an ILB, and I think La Fleur's scheme requires a solid OL. We have two really good running backs and an agin QB that need the line for the offense to have a chance.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I appreciate your analysis. Based on the quote, wouldn't it make sense to target a player that is willing to play for a contender on a one year offer. I believe he tried to trade for Emannuel Sanders but San Fran just beat us out. I can't find it now but I read an article that put forward a case for us to try and pick up Watkins on a one year deal. Perhaps we could do that and find a more long term solution in the upper or mid round of the draft. We really do need an ILB, and I think La Fleur's scheme requires a solid OL. We have two really good running backs and an agin QB that need the line for the offense to have a chance.

What Gutekunst said, I believe, is that the prices were not right on the players he was interested in. Whether Sanders was among those guys I couldn't say. Personally, I don't have a lot of ethusiasm for that player at this stage of his career.

For reasons I cannot explain, this league keeps overpaying Sammy Watkins with these $15 - $16 mil per year deals. Until the league smartens up there's no point in considering him. In any case, if KC does in fact release him, which would be the smart thing to do, you can be pretty sure somebody will offer him more than a one year deal. The guy is in his prime years. He's just not worth what he's been getting paid.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Resign Bulaga, Crosby, Lewis, Tonyan, Lazard, Sullivan, Lancaster, Kumerow, Redmond

1. No

2. Yes

3. Yes but not completely necessary

4. Yes

5. Yes

6. Yes

7. Yes probably

8. 50/50 wouldn't hurt but certainly not necessary

9. Yes probably

 

[gopkrs]

1. No

2. Yes

3. Yes but not completely necessary

4. Yes

5. Yes

6. Yes

7. Yes probably

8. 50/50 wouldn't hurt but certainly not necessary

9. Yes probably

Pretty much agree with you. Bulaga is a tough one though because we really need to have someone good there and he may not be easy to find. But I would certainly like to go younger and fresher there. I'd also like to see Jenkins try out center and find a good run blocking L guard that can move the man in front of him on short yardage. But Lancaster?? What do you see here?

 

[Jason Edens]

What Gutekunst said, I believe, is that the prices were not right on the players he was interested in. Whether Sanders was among those guys I couldn't say. Personally, I don't have a lot of ethusiasm for that player at this stage of his career.

For reasons I cannot explain, this league keeps overpaying Sammy Watkins with these $15 - $16 mil per year deals. Until the league smartens up there's no point in considering him. In any case, if KC does in fact release him, which would be the smart thing to do, you can be pretty sure somebody will offer him more than a one year deal. The guy is in his prime years. He's just not worth what he's been getting paid.

He keeps getting paid WR1 money and should be more on the lines of WR2 money. I think Kansas City is going to have to release him for cap reasons or hope Mahommes is more interested in SB rings than getting paid the money he deserves like Brady. Rodgers takes up a lot of cap space, and deservedly so. He has given many average to above average receivers good to great seasons. Favre did the same thing. I think that is why they flop when the leave for free agency. Maybe the smartest thing to do cap wise would be to bring Cobb back for a couple of a million on a one year prove it deal and then draft a couple hoping something sticks.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Pretty much agree with you. Bulaga is a tough one though because we really need to have someone good there and he may not be easy to find. But I would certainly like to go younger and fresher there. I'd also like to see Jenkins try out center and find a good run blocking L guard that can move the man in front of him on short yardage. But Lancaster?? What do you see here?

Eh, I mean i wouldn't say done deal with Lancaster, but I don't think I'd spend any draft capital on that position when we got other pressing needs, or any big FA signings there. If there's a cheaper equal option to him, then release him, but wouldn't seem like re-signing him hurts.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

it’s possible an impact WR can be acquired in the draft, just unlikely picking at #30.

Yes, totally possible. However, relying on it for next season would be a very bad path to take in my opinion. What if the rookie doesn't catch on right away? What if he or Adams gets injured?

I have not read one article about the Packers that boasts about their current WR group, nor have I heard/read anyone say that they have a lot of confidence in the development of the current "non Adams" group.

I get it, some are saying that "The Free Agency WR Market sucks this year and the draft is one of the best for WR's in years". I don't quite buy into the fact that Gute still wont be able to find a #2 WR in Free Agency or via a trade, I also don't buy into the idea that drafting a WR alone will solve the issues we saw at the position last year.

Will be interesting to see the path Gute follows....sign a TE and a WR, as well as an ILB in Free Agency or roll the dice and try to fill a starting spot at one of those 3 positions with a Rookie or someone currently on the roster.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Yes, totally possible. However, relying on it for next season would be a very bad path to take in my opinion. What if the rookie doesn't catch on right away? What if he or Adams gets injured?

I have not read one article about the Packers that boasts about their current WR group, nor have I heard/read anyone say that they have a lot of confidence in the development of the current "non Adams" group.

I get it, some are saying that "The Free Agency WR Market sucks this year and the draft is one of the best for WR's in years". I don't quite buy into the fact that Gute still wont be able to find a #2 WR in Free Agency or via a trade, I also don't buy into the idea that drafting a WR alone will solve the issues we saw at the position last year.

Will be interesting to see the path Gute follows....sign a TE and a WR, as well as an ILB in Free Agency or roll the dice and try to fill a starting spot at one of those 3 positions with a Rookie or someone currently on the roster.

One thing to bear in mind though is that the Packers haven't selected a WR in the first three rounds of the draft since 2015 when they picked Montgomery round 3. Going back to our last number of star receivers ...

Davante Adams was round 2
Randall Cobb round 2
Jordy Nelson round 2
James Jones round 3
Greg Jennings round 2
Javon Walker round 1
Robert Ferguson round 2

I guess I just look at that and figure the lack of replacement picks for Cobb and Jordy in the early rounds where these guys were picked has been part of the problem to our current lackluster core. WR can be addressed in the draft, but where you pick matters.

Btw, I'm not opposed to looking at WR free agents, but I'd want to know the names and the price tag. TE ... Only current free agent name I like is Austin Hooper, but I got a feeling Atlanta is going to cut a new deal for him.

The way I'd address our TE situation ... Let Graham walk, re-sign the Mercedes, make either him or Tonyan number 1, the other number 2, and then Sternberger number 3, and as long as he proves not to be injury prone this year, we'll find out whether he's boom or bust.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Will be interesting to see the path Gute follows....sign a TE and a WR, as well as an ILB in Free Agency or roll the dice and try to fill a starting spot at one of those 3 positions with a Rookie or someone currently on the roster.

Unless you're talking about Lewis or Goodson-type rotational players, I'm fairly confident you're not going to see all 3 coming out of free agency. If he starts signing back Bulaga and some of the lower cost older guys like Crosby, T. Williams and Lewis, you'll probably see only one.

No matter how you cut it, you have to get a couple of players out of this draft who contribute right away at whatever positions at least on a par with Jenkins and Savage, and another if Gary does not advance. And if Sternberger is the starting TE he needs to advance as well, obviously.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I guess I just look at that and figure the lack of replacement picks for Cobb and Jordy in the early rounds where these guys were picked has been part of the problem to our current lackluster core. WR can be addressed in the draft, but where you pick matters.

I have been saying this for a few years now. As hard as TT and Gute have tried, they don't seem to be able to find capable WR's outside of the first few rounds. Adams was the last WR brought into Green Bay that has contributed in a starting capacity way. To further complicate that history, when will an early round WR be fully immersed into the playbook and on the same page as Rodgers? First season? I doubt it.

I realize that we don't have the funds to spend on 3 high end FA Starters (WR, TE and ILB).

- WR: I don't think Gute has to spend top money at WR to improve the team. Mid tier $5-7M/year should do it. Then grab a rookie in the first 3 rounds of the draft. That vet + rookie, along with Adams and the youngsters on the current roster are going to be enough. Maybe a Tajae Sharpe or Breshad Perriman type.

- TE: Of the 3, I would spend the most on this position while the getting is good and lock up a quality starter for 3-4 years. Once Kittle signs his new deal, the market is going to be blown up. All that changes if the coaches love Sternberger and think he is the future.

-ILB: I think here is another place you don't have to blow your ***, but you do have to at least try to find one free agent and hope for a top rookie to fall to #30 (Murray or Queen).

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I have been saying this for a few years now. As hard as TT and Gute have tried, they don't seem to be able to find capable WR's outside of the first few rounds. Adams was the last WR brought into Green Bay that has contributed in a starting capacity way. To further complicate that history, when will an early round WR be fully immersed into the playbook and on the same page as Rodgers? First season? I doubt it.

I realize that we don't have the funds to spend on 3 high end FA Starters (WR, TE and ILB).

- WR: I don't think Gute has to spend top money at WR to improve the team. Mid tier $5-7M/year should do it. Then grab a rookie in the first 3 rounds of the draft. That vet + rookie, along with Adams and the youngsters on the current roster are going to be enough. Maybe a Tajae Sharpe or Breshad Perriman type.

I'd look at both potentially, perhaps 1 through FA and one through the draft, and thereby replace 2 of either GMo, MVS or Kumerow