2019 Free Agent Wishlist

[Un4GivN]

Just to add for this conversation

Packers UFA next year:
Clay Matthews OLB
Randall Cobb WR
Muhammad Wilkerson DE
Marcedes Lewis TE
Lance Kendricks TE
Byron Bell RT
Davon House CB
Bashaud Breeland CB
Eddie Pleasant FS
Ibraheim Campbell SS
Jake Ryan ILB
Geronimo Allison WR
Dan Vitale FB

Assuming the Packers keep none of these... Which I think we will keep Allison, Ryan, maybe some others.

That leaves you at 38.5 mil about 10 mil of that will go to Rookies, which is especially high this year if we go for two first rounders.

Now you are at 28.5 mil with 1 TE, (Graham) 3 OLB (Burks, Fackrell, and Perry) 4 Safeties none of which are any good (Raven Green, Josh Jones, and Natrell Jamerson, Tramon Williams).

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

We need to stack both lines. Free agents. Draft..... We have two 1st round picks. Oline/d line. Or d line online. Then bring in a stud olineman. And draft a couple 4th round project guards. And a half dozen 7th rd/ udfa's... And Wilkerson coming back mid season off pup. And. More.

 

[OldSchool101]

Why would Dee Ford sign for 10/year?

Good edges, and he is one, are gonna go higher than that. He would get a contract that is at minimum, like Nick Perry's.

That’s why I said.... I’d be extacic! Electrified!

There are certainly larger contracts possible but many are incentive laden so it’s as much about the particulars of a contract (guaranteed monies? Term length? Etc..)
Watch JJ.. he’ll probably lock up around 15M annually depending on incentives and contract length. Maybe a little less if it’s highly guaranteed. This isn’t Khalil Mack or JJ Watt either.

 

[CaptainCanuck]

Would gladly take Jadeveon Clowney or Earl Thomas

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Spriggs isn't that bad tbh.

He's not good enough to be isolated against Khalil Mack, but not very many are. Our coaching not giving help to our OT's doesn't exactly help out. But Spriggs really isn't that bad.

Springs has been terrible for all of his tenure with the Packers. It might be smart to keep him as a cheap backup but I definitely feel more comfortable with him not being on the field.

Just to add for this conversation

Packers UFA next year:
Clay Matthews OLB
Randall Cobb WR
Muhammad Wilkerson DE
Marcedes Lewis TE
Lance Kendricks TE
Byron Bell RT
Davon House CB
Bashaud Breeland CB
Eddie Pleasant FS
Ibraheim Campbell SS
Jake Ryan ILB
Geronimo Allison WR
Dan Vitale FB

Assuming the Packers keep none of these... Which I think we will keep Allison, Ryan, maybe some others.

That leaves you at 38.5 mil about 10 mil of that will go to Rookies, which is especially high this year if we go for two first rounders.

Now you are at 28.5 mil with 1 TE, (Graham) 3 OLB (Burks, Fackrell, and Perry) 4 Safeties none of which are any good (Raven Green, Josh Jones, and Natrell Jamerson, Tramon Williams).

The Packers draft picks will reduce the cap space by only approximately $5.6 million.

 

[Un4GivN]

The Packers draft picks will reduce the cap space by only approximately $5.6 million.

Really? I looked at this site here using 2017 as a standard.

https://www.spotrac.com/

The top 7-12 spots in the NFL draft average about 3-5 million against the cap their first year.
The end of the first round, (Saints pick) about 2 million a year.
1.2 million or so for a high second rounder.
The final 5 average around 500k for the first year or 2.5 million.

So just an estimation I got 8.5 to 10.5 million for rookie deals.

Then this website estimates about 10.6 million for next years draft signings.

https://overthecap.com/draft/

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Really? I looked at this site here using 2017 as a standard.

https://www.spotrac.com/

The top 7-12 spots in the NFL draft average about 3-5 million against the cap their first year.
The end of the first round, (Saints pick) about 2 million a year.
1.2 million or so for a high second rounder.
The final 5 average around 500k for the first year or 2.5 million.

So just an estimation I got 8.5 to 10.5 million for rookie deals.

Then this website estimates about 10.6 million for next years draft signings.

https://overthecap.com/draft/

You have to realize that the draft picks will replace 10 players making at least a combined $4.95 million on the roster though, therefore the actual salary cap used on them will be a maximum of $5.6 million.

 

[Un4GivN]

You have to realize that the draft picks will replace 10 players making at least a combined $4.95 million on the roster though, therefore the actual salary cap used on them will be a maximum of $5.6 million.

That interesting, so you have to 1 to 1 release players to pick up your draft picks?

I always thought it was after free-agency and you would only have people on your roster that you wanted to keep.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

The Packers have many needs, on both side of the ball. That being the case, perhaps they will bring in half-a-dozen or so second and third tier free agents rather than one big or two big splash signings.

That said, Landon Collins is an interesting prospect......

 

[HardRightEdge]

Really? I looked at this site here using 2017 as a standard.

Then this website estimates about 10.6 million for next years draft signings.

https://overthecap.com/draft/

You have to realize that the draft picks will replace 10 players making at least a combined $4.95 million on the roster though, therefore the actual salary cap used on them will be a maximum of $5.6 million.

You have to consider that not all of the 10 players the draftees might replace currently existing ones because they don't actually exist. Overthecap currently shows 46 guys under contract for 2019 season; Spotrac shows 48. This head count has been rising with IR replacements getting 2 year deals.

If we start with the 48 players from Spotrac, that leaves 5 open roster spots not currenlty counted against any projected 2019 cap number. So it's fair to subtract the Packers first 5 picks from available cap space.

Using the numbers in the Overthecap link above, assuming the Packers draft at position #11, the current subtractions from projected 2019 cap space to get to 53 players are:

Round 1: $3.23 mil
Round 1 (from New Orleans): $1.85 mil
Round 2: $1.26 mil
Round 3: $0.76 mil
Round 4: $0.68 mil

Total: $7.8 mil

Spotrac shows 2019 cap cost for the 48 players currently under contract for 2019 + a nominal amount of already incurred dead cap = $156.3 mil. overthecap shows $154.3 for 2 fewer players. That's about $1 mil discrepancy since the extra 2 players only count for about 1 mil. Let's go with spotracs more conservative number.

So, cap cost for the current 48 players + those first 5 draftees = $164 mil for a baseline roster of 53 players.

Subtract $1 mil for the practice squad. Subtract a minimum of $3 mil to be held in reserve for PUP/IR replacements through the 2019 season.

Estimated baseline 2019 cap cost before free agency = $168 mil

The NFL announced last week a projected team cap number for next season in the range of $187 - $191.1 mil. Let's use the mid-point of $189 mil.

According to the NFLPA, the Packers current cap space available for carryover = approx. $8 mil.

Current estimated Packer 2019 cap number = $197 mil

That leaves $29 mil in 2019 cap space for free agents.

Obviously this is a moving target as the March free agency period approaches, with some possible cuts to accrue more cap space, but this is about as close as we can get at this moment.

There's a possibility of two high value second contract players. But if, as some propose, Cobb and Matthews are brought back at, say, $5 mil a pop, then two high value free agents might be a bit tight as things stand currently.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Texans are slated to have around 75M in cap space, which would be a lot more than the Packers and 6th most in the league.

That's certainly a worthy consideration. While I consider this free agency "want list" exercise premature, for those so engaged perhaps it would be best to plumb the rosters of the teams at the bottom of the following linked list of projected 2019 cap space based on current contracts in place:

Be sure to click on the 2019 tab: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

I'll say this much. I would look askance at Graham-type "win now" FAs in a third contact or beyond for top $. I would not even sniff at those players unless they are coming off peak performance seasons and have exhibited durability with no major injuries and few missed games over the last couple of seasons.

A prime example would be Earl Thomas, assuming he can still command a big contract, which is doubtful but possible if some teams think he's the "missing piece" and believe he's recovered from his injury. The way I see it is he'll be 30 years old, his season ended in 2016 with a broken tibia, and he fractured the same lower leg, perhaps the same tibia, to end his 2018 season. No way, the risk is very high. This team is not a safety away from a championship roster.

I'd be looking at second contract players who have been on the rise, have been durable, currently play on a team that is cap strapped for 2019, and has depth at the position whereby that player is not a high priority. Of course those teams might be able to slash vet contracts to pick up cap space and place a priority on that player. But since the entire exercise is a crap shoot at this juncture, these considerations should get to more likely possibilities if there is such a thing.

 

[Dantés]

In that case, forget about Clowney.

I know he's great, but I would be really careful about paying Clowney. He's been oft-injured. We wouldn't want a repeat of the Nick Perry situation-- give big money to an injury prone guy and he puts his career in cruise control.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Packers have many needs, on both side of the ball. That being the case, perhaps they will bring in half-a-dozen or so second and third tier free agents rather than one big or two big splash signings.

You gotta figure there will be a couple of those for modest money signings, like a House at $1 mil, a Bell or Lewis at $2 mil a pop, or moving up the food chain for a Tramon Williams at $4 mil (going to $6 mil in year 2) or a Wilkerson at $5 mil. The only one of these guys likely to be back next season is Williams, and that's chielfly because the cap savings in releasing him would be a nominal $1.6 mil.

But where did going in for a half dozen of these guys get you this season? Now we're supposed to pile age and suspect performance prospects on top of pre-existing age and injury?

I couldn't make a base case that this was a championship roster going into this past season, with an optimistic projection of possibly 10 wins and maybe something worse, though I did not expect anything this bad.

Backing and filling holes and for depth with a bunch of those kinds of free agent as was done this past season in a "win now" strategy is throwing good money after bad at this juncture, with a worse base case than where we were at this time last season.

The only path to get from here to there in one season, given what we have, is hitting home runs in the draft (as New Orleans did in 2017) while the 2017 draft class develops and elevates their play. Supplement that with a high value younger free agent, or maybe two but that might be a tight squeeze. Then, if those home runs and developments don't materialize sufficiently, that high value younger free agent or two are on hand in 2020 to make another run at it.

This roster is past the point of loading up with bronze bullets. We need the silver ones.

 

[brandon2348]

If we signed D Ford at <=4yr/35-40M?
I’d be Ecstatic.
Then I’d pair him with another OLB with 1 of our 2 first day picks..right after I help Clay pack

Then I’d attempt to lock Earl Thomas on a short term deal 2-3 years.

I’d hit FA one more time at OL and then move on to the draft.

That's pretty much exactly how I would map it out along with adding Parris Campbell in the draft.

 

[sschind]

Anyways, I'd like to make a play for Aaron Lynch from the Bears..

We are down on our quota of A A Rons since we let Rip go.

 

[GleefulGary]

Springs has been terrible for all of his tenure with the Packers. It might be smart to keep him as a cheap backup but I definitely feel more comfortable with him not being on the field.



The Packers draft picks will reduce the cap space by only approximately $5.6 million.

Spriggs hasn't been that bad this year.

Did he struggle 1 on 1 with Mack? Yeah. Who doesn't? He played well against Atlanta, did ok against Chicago.

I'm not saying we should be ok with not bringing in competition for him, but to say he's been terrible this year is absolutely false.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

Please god, just get somebody, anybody that can win us a road game for us next year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Spriggs hasn't been that bad this year.
poor
Did he struggle 1 on 1 with Mack? Yeah. Who doesn't? He played well against Atlanta, did ok against Chicago.

I'm not saying we should be ok with not bringing in competition for him, but to say he's been terrible this year is absolutely false.

He didn't struggle just against Mack. I'll give you an example. He took 10 snaps for Bakhtiari at the end of the Vikings game. On one play, Griffen gave him a little inside shoulder move, Spriggs went with it, and Griffen went right through his left shoulder straight to the QB for the sack. Spriggs lost leverage/balance leaning into that first move. He's vulnerable to any decent edge player with a counter move, whether you call it poor weight set-up, poor balance, slow feet or slow processing.

I think he has potential at OG where the required range is more limited.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That interesting, so you have to 1 to 1 release players to pick up your draft picks?

The Packers don't have to release any players to pick up draft picks as teams are allowed to carry 90 players on the roster during the offseason. With only the top 51 contracts counting against the cap before the start of the regular season their rookie deals replace another one while calculating the cap space at that point though.

The only one of these guys likely to be back next season is Williams, and that's chielfly because the cap savings in releasing him would be a nominal $1.6 mil.

Just to clarify, the Packers would save $4.75 million of cap space by releasing Williams before the start of free agency in March. The move would result in $1.6 million of dead money counting against the cap.

Spriggs hasn't been that bad this year.

Did he struggle 1 on 1 with Mack? Yeah. Who doesn't? He played well against Atlanta, did ok against Chicago.

The Falcons most likely field the worst defense in the league at this moment though.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

You gotta figure there will be a couple of those for modest money signings, like a House at $1 mil, a Bell or Lewis at $2 mil a pop, or moving up the food chain for a Tramon Williams at $4 mil (going to $6 mil in year 2) or a Wilkerson at $5 mil. The only one of these guys likely to be back next season is Williams, and that's chielfly because the cap savings in releasing him would be a nominal $1.6 mil.

But where did going in for a half dozen of these guys get you this season? Now we're supposed to pile age and suspect performance prospects on top of pre-existing age and injury?

I couldn't make a base case that this was a championship roster going into this past season, with an optimistic projection of possibly 10 wins and maybe something worse, though I did not expect anything this bad.

Backing and filling holes and for depth with a bunch of those kinds of free agent as was done this past season in a "win now" strategy is throwing good money after bad at this juncture, with a worse base case than where we were at this time last season.

The only path to get from here to there in one season, given what we have, is hitting home runs in the draft (as New Orleans did in 2017) while the 2017 draft class develops and elevates their play. Supplement that with a high value younger free agent, or maybe two but that might be a tight squeeze. Then, if those home runs and developments don't materialize sufficiently, that high value younger free agent or two are on hand in 2020 to make another run at it.

This roster is past the point of loading up with bronze bullets. We need the silver ones.

The problem with free agency is that very often teams overpay for a player who just had the best year he's ever going to have. There are exceptions, of course, but they are the exceptions to the rule.

If you get your "silver bullets" from the draft, they're a lot cheaper, at least initially. In order to do that, you have to pick the right guy, and then put up with the rookie growing pains. That's the trade-off.

Edge rushers, which the Packers desperately need, are at a premium, so teams will almost certainly have to overpay for those in free agency. Teams who have a quarterback on a rookie contract are obviously in a better position to "break the bank" for a top-tier edge rusher in free agency......Teams like Green Bay, not so much.

That's just the reality of it.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The problem with free agency is that very often teams overpay for a player who just had the best year he's ever going to have. There are exceptions, of course, but they are the exceptions to the rule.

If you get your "silver bullets" from the draft, they're a lot cheaper, at least initially. In order to do that, you have to pick the right guy, and then put up with the rookie growing pains. That's the trade-off.

Edge rushers, which the Packers desperately need, are at a premium, so teams will almost certainly have to overpay for those in free agency. Teams who have a quarterback on a rookie contract are obviously in a better position to "break the bank" for a top-tier edge rusher in free agency......Teams like Green Bay, not so much.

That's just the reality of it.

It goes without saying that whether it's the draft or free agency the outcome is based on the quality of the choices. While a first round pick might be a bust, the fact that the cost is contained under a rookie contract is mere cold comfort. As for free agency, I look askance at the parade of names trotted out as potential acquisitions for the reasons you mention as much as any regular poster here.

You seem to be alluding to Mack. I don't care what the reports might have said about Gutekunst's "serious" interest. It never got that far because, quite simply, he was unaffordable once the costs became evident. I've previously illustrated the impact to 2019 cap (not to mention the cap implications past next year) if you move that Mack contract over to the Packer ledger along while assuming the loss of those two 2019 first rounders. No matter how good Mack might be or will be, that signing would have been disasterous which is why it did not happen.

I've been saying for quite some time the only reasonable path forward for this team is stacking good drafts. This is not some new revelation to me. If the choices are poor, the team will continue to wallow. If those silver bullets are found, then the team will ascend. This is not a team that is one All-Pro future first ballot HOFer away from serious contension.

My point in that post was that p*ssing away cap in dribs and drabs on players past their peaks, retreads and injury risks, is a vain attempt at shoring up a roster that is misperceived as a few holes and depth away from getting back in contention. Better to take that cap and concentrate it on one young player in free agency as a supplement to the draft. There's no guarantee that any guy will work out, but it's a better risk than collecting a bunch of rent-a-players.

The two Gutekunst serious forays into the high-priced free agent market that are verifiable were Graham and Fuller, the latter having been tendered at 4 years / $56 million. If one wants to say a big ticket signing is a 50/50 proposition in light of these efforts, I'd go along with that. How serious his effort to sign Robinson or Watkins might have been once the bidding was underway must remain a matter of speculation as will how they would have performed in the Packer offense. But that 50/50 proposition is better than spending in dribs and drabs on a bunch of guys going nowhere but down.

I like what Gutekunst has been doing bringing in all of these ex-mid round draftees and UDFAs for extended tryouts. I've referred to it as "2018 Draft 2.0". Clearly, there's more to it than that given the decimating injuries. But at least the effort costs little and he didn't do something crazy like trade for some aging player with significant cost as some kind of Hail Mary.

 

[Dantés]

I've posted this elsewhere, but I'm bored. These are the free agents who I like as players and who I actually think have a chance to make it to the market. Note: I'm not saying that the Packers can or should sign all these guys; they're just the ones I like.

• B. Powell, RB, NYJ
• T. Yeldon, RB, JAC
• A. Humphries, WR, TB
• J. James, TE, PIT
• N. Boyle, TE, BAL
• J. James, OT, MIA
• D. Philon, DT, LAC
• A. Barr, OLB, MIN
• P. Smith, OLB, WAS
• Z. Smith, OLB, BAL
• E. Thomas, S, SEA
• A. Amos, S, CHI

The targets on defense are figured on Pettine staying here. If he leaves and the scheme undergoes significant changes, then the desirable players would change dramatically.

 

[speakhands]

I've posted this elsewhere, but I'm bored. These are the free agents who I like as players and who I actually think have a chance to make it to the market. Note: I'm not saying that the Packers can or should sign all these guys; they're just the ones I like.

• B. Powell, RB, NYJ
• T. Yeldon, RB, JAC
• A. Humphries, WR, TB
• J. James, TE, PIT
• N. Boyle, TE, BAL
• J. James, OT, MIA
• D. Philon, DT, LAC
• A. Barr, OLB, MIN
• P. Smith, OLB, WAS
• Z. Smith, OLB, BAL
• E. Thomas, S, SEA
• A. Amos, S, CHI

The targets on defense are figured on Pettine staying here. If he leaves and the scheme undergoes significant changes, then the desirable players would change dramatically.

What's the general consensus on whether Pettine stays?

I, and I expect most people, really want him to stay.

 

[Dantés]

What's the general consensus on whether Pettine stays?

I, and I expect most people, really want him to stay.

I haven't a clue... I want him to stay if the new HC wants him. I don't want him forced on anyone.