2018 Salary Cap Analysis

[Pokerbrat2000]

I definitely think there are cheaper versions of Matthews, Nelson or Cobb. The questions will be. Will those versions:

1. Be available?
2. Fit in the Packers offense/defense?
3. If they do, how quickly?
4. Will that player end up playing better or worse than expected?

The 3 players in question are considered to be overpaid by most. However, will any of them play for the Packers in 2018 at a level that is equal to their pay? If I am Gunt, I am getting all 3 and their agents in to try and renegotiate their contract. If that doesn't work out, then I am seeing how I replace them in the FA market or draft, before making the decision on whether to cut them or not.

 

[Mike McCarthy]

I definitely think there are cheaper versions of Matthews, Nelson or Cobb. The questions will be. Will those versions:

1. Be available?
2. Fit in the Packers offense/defense?
3. If they do, how quickly?
4. Will that player end up playing better or worse than expected?

The 3 players in question are considered to be overpaid by most. However, will any of them play for the Packers in 2018 at a level that is equal to their pay? If I am Gunt, I am getting all 3 and their agents in to try and renegotiate their contract. If that doesn't work out, then I am seeing how I replace them in the FA market or draft, before making the decision on whether to cut them or not.

Don’t forget about Bulaga his body has been cashed for approximately 3 years now, do we really need him on IR collecting his cash for another season, I think not.

 

[OldSchool101]

a

I definitely think there are cheaper versions of Matthews, Nelson or Cobb. The questions will be. Will those versions:

1. Be available?
2. Fit in the Packers offense/defense?
3. If they do, how quickly?
4. Will that player end up playing better or worse than expected?

The 3 players in question are considered to be overpaid by most. However, will any of them play for the Packers in 2018 at a level that is equal to their pay? If I am Gunt, I am getting all 3 and their agents in to try and renegotiate their contract. If that doesn't work out, then I am seeing how I replace them in the FA market or draft, before making the decision on whether to cut them or not.

We're in no man's land right now and that's a good thing. The best time for change is when you're already committed to change and 2018 is like no other year we've seen as Packer fans IMO. It's been Shakedown Street and while I know it's tough to make changes and scary as heck to lose some of the guys we've come to know as our brand label, it's also probably the most psyched I've been since Aaron Rodgers became well.... Aaron Rodgers.
I want us to get that feeling back like we had in 2010 and we need to go full throttle this year in FA and the Draft and take every resigning like it's our last. We all just had a really tough year and the best thing about that is we have everything to gain and nothing to lose.
Let's explore every last player option with a winning attitude and those players that aren't part of the long term winning strategy (yes that goes for you Clay, Jordy and Cobb) need to get while the gettins' good. You know the old saying "I was looking for a job when I found this one" that applies to every player because we were "looking for a star when we found them" and we can be looking for a Star again. If I gotta take my $35Million and find another Jordy, Clay and Cobb so be it. Do I want to? absolutely not, but I might even just a cut one right away to set precedent. There isn't a player that wants to be on the decline looking into the unknown.
Gutenkunst you better rock this ship or I'll come up with a nickname that will bring you down hard and fast!

 

[Mondio]

Unless we decide to really unload some guys, I think those expecting any more FA moves than we've seen recently are going to be disappointed. But we do have a lot of options. Cut guys and sign others, package guys and draft picks, get new ones, move up in the draft, or just draft all 10, 11, 12 whatever picks we get, let older contracts play out and use cleared space next year to sign FA's after we see which young guys are going to pan out? I think it will take luck to really push for a Super Bowl next year. lots of options for this team, they just have to make the right decisions

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Don’t forget about Bulaga his body has been cashed for approximately 3 years now, do we really need him on IR collecting his cash for another season, I think not.

Bulaga will be a tougher call IMO and it will depend on how quickly he can come back and if the staff thinks he can stay healthy. He still has 2 years and $4.8M of dead cap. Not to mention, it isn't like Spriggs is ready to take his spot.

 

[swhitset]

I'm still in that crowd if a trade would be the most sensible option. If trading him results in an improved defense, better overall team, and better cap situation, how could any Packers (not Rodgers) fan possibly be upset about going that route?

that's a lot of qualifying "ifs".

 

[PikeBadger]

Bulaga will be a tougher call IMO and it will depend on how quickly he can come back and if the staff thinks he can stay healthy. He still has 2 years and $4.8M of dead cap. Not to mention, it isn't like Spriggs is ready to take his spot.

I’m not convinced Spriggs won’t be ready to be a starting RT next year. Most people thought the same way about Lane Taylor when Sitton was suddenly released. The problem I see is possibly having to replace BOTH the starting RT and RG at the same time.

 

[thequick12]

I definitely think there are cheaper versions of Matthews, Nelson or Cobb. The questions will be. Will those versions:

1. Be available?
2. Fit in the Packers offense/defense?
3. If they do, how quickly?
4. Will that player end up playing better or worse than expected?

The 3 players in question are considered to be overpaid by most. However, will any of them play for the Packers in 2018 at a level that is equal to their pay? If I am Gunt, I am getting all 3 and their agents in to try and renegotiate their contract. If that doesn't work out, then I am seeing how I replace them in the FA market or draft, before making the decision on whether to cut them or not.

There's definitely no cheaper version of Matthews available. Still I'd hope the new gm could extend him and lower his cap number. There's definitely a cheaper version of the post Rodgers injury nelson available but not the prettiest injury nelson. Still once again I'd like to see gm or ball or whomevers job that is get creative and somehow lower his 2018 cap number as well. I get that's more difficult in his case as he may wanna retire after this season. I personally think he can be a top 5 slot receiver in 2018 with a healthy Rodgers and at least top 10 for an additional 2 seasons if he wants. As for Cobb I think he's the one you could 100% get a cheaper replacement possibly even a draft pick. He's got great chemistry with Rodgers from the slot but if nelson is to get more snaps in the slot then Cobb becomes the most expendable of the group.

 

[thequick12]

So how about Morgan Burnett? Sprotrac estimates he can command a 4 year 45 million dollar contract on the open market. Would you resign him or let him walk ? I don't think there's anyway I could pay him that much even though I really like him as a player. I'd have to try and sign Tre Boston, Eric Reid, or Terrance Brooks at a lesser rate. And then draft a guy like deshonn elloit from Texas.

 

[Poppa San]

So how about Morgan Burnett? Sprotrac estimates he can command a 4 year 45 million dollar contract on the open market. Would you resign him or let him walk ? I don't think there's anyway I could pay him that much even though I really like him as a player. I'd have to try and sign Tre Boston, Eric Reid, or Terrance Brooks at a lesser rate. And then draft a guy like deshonn elloit from Texas.

I'd let Burnett walk for that type of money. Not even bother to sign a safety. Let Dix and Jones flip for the SS spot and take the best of the other and Brice and Rollins as the FS. Try to get something out of Rollins.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'd let Burnett walk for that type of money. Not even bother to sign a safety. Let Dix and Jones flip for the SS spot and take the best of the other and Brice and Rollins as the FS. Try to get something out of Rollins.

Agreed. I like Burnett, but he isn't THAT big of a difference maker to pay him almost double what he has been making.

S could definitely be a position of need in the draft. If Dix has a repeat performance of 2017, I don't see him being around more than another year either.

 

[Mondio]

10 million per? No thanks

 

[Half Empty]

that's a big

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.

Much like keeping them is a big IF. Much like drafting is a big IF. Much like new coaching with holdover players is a big IF. It's not as big a reach to think that at least equal production could be found.

 

[gbgary]

Much like keeping them is a big IF. Much like drafting is a big IF. Much like new coaching with holdover players is a big IF. It's not as big a reach to think that at least equal production could be found.

they're known quantities in this system though...cobb and jordy especially. who knows what clay will be like in the new d scheme. i'm not against bringing in a mercenary but in a win-now scenario he'd better be a substantial upgrade. i say keep all three especially if the other two will do the Packers a solid as jordy's said he'll do.

 

[PikeBadger]

So how about Morgan Burnett? Sprotrac estimates he can command a 4 year 45 million dollar contract on the open market. Would you resign him or let him walk ? I don't think there's anyway I could pay him that much even though I really like him as a player. I'd have to try and sign Tre Boston, Eric Reid, or Terrance Brooks at a lesser rate. And then draft a guy like deshonn elloit from Texas.

I wouldn’t pay Burnett half that contract. He can walk tomorrow. Jones/Brice can play that position. We need to get a REAL free safety to roam deep and cover to sidelines. That’s the guy that we lack.

 

[PackerDNA]

Neither Jones nor Brice have shown they can handle anything.

 

[Mondio]

I think Brice can, his body just cant' handle the way he plays. He can cover ground and play defense. Just cant' hold up

 

[Half Empty]

they're known quantities in this system though...cobb and jordy especially. who knows what clay will be like in the new d scheme. i'm not against bringing in a mercenary but in a win-now scenario he'd better be a substantial upgrade. i say keep all three especially if the other two will do the Packers a solid as jordy's said he'll do.

Was mostly just ragging on the BIG 'if'. The rest can be argued from both sides. Cobb and Jordy are certainly more known quantities that someone from the outside, but are those known quantities worth what they cost? I don't a thing about available OLBs (and, of course, is Matthews still going to be an OLB?), but at $11+ mil with no dead cap, bringing in someone in place of MAtthews has to be a consideration.

 

[PackerDNA]

I think Brice can, his body just cant' handle the way he plays. He can cover ground and play defense. Just cant' hold up

You may be right about Brice, but for me, enough of the same guys every year, hoping they'll suddenly become something. There's a chance to get aggressive and expand horizons here across the board.

 

[brandon2348]

Burnett isn't worth the $. Can't stay healhty and put more then 3 games together at a time.

 

[bigbubbatd]

Packers getting just over 2 milling in cap money for this year from unused roster bonuses for Bulaga, Rodgers and Bennett

 

[PikeBadger]

Neither Jones nor Brice have shown they can handle anything.

Yet. Time and experience will tell.

 

[PikeBadger]

they're known quantities in this system though...cobb and jordy especially. who knows what clay will be like in the new d scheme. i'm not against bringing in a mercenary but in a win-now scenario he'd better be a substantial upgrade. i say keep all three especially if the other two will do the Packers a solid as jordy's said he'll do.

I could see Bulaga and one of Nelson/Cobb jettisoned this year. I doubt they’d get rid of both receivers at once though. Rodgers would go ballistic I think.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I could see Bulaga and one of Nelson/Cobb jettisoned this year. I doubt they’d get rid of both receivers at once though. Rodgers would go ballistic I think.

I would too if I was Rodgers. Allison is the only slightly proven commodity at WR after Adams/Cobb/Nelson. Even Allison is not a sure thing. Then beyond him......Davis, Janis or Monty, if you return him back to WR? Packers will need to get busy in the FA market if they plan on cutting either Cobb or Nelson.

I get everyone's desire to "cut bait" from bad contracts, but in order to do that, you better have other options to replace the productivity of the guy you are going to cut simply because he makes more money than we think he should.

If Rodgers signs a big new contract and 2 years later his perceived value to the team is less than what he is getting paid, do you cut him loose if your next man up is 75% as good as Rodgers?

 

[OldSchool101]

It's always best not to create turnover in the workplace in order to create a marginal or even trivial savings. We need to respect what Jordy and Cobb have done for us and offer them both deals that are in earshot with their previous contract but also factor in their age and recent reduction in production. I could see offering Jordy a 1-2yr contract not more than the 16M 2yr ceiling but starting a tad lower to give us negotiating room to make him feel like he won. Cobb with something similar but I'd be more aggressive on securing Cobb by leveraging his with guaranteeing him a 3 or 4 year deal (I'd start at 3) so the contracts are staggered.
It sends a poor message to the other players when loyalty goes out the window. We should have a contingency plan of course, we never know what they are thinking either.

As bigbubbatd said, we just picked up 2M roster kickback and we could lock both these players and average an additional -+5M/year combined savings while retaining some pretty solid skill sets and keeping the moral high.