2016 Playoffs round 2 -- in big D

[yooperpackfan]

Random thought approaching game time: I would like to see one Janis end-around today

That would be sweet!

 

[Sky King]

Obviously, you do not understand "the room" which is how and why the sports books in Las Vegas operate at a profit. So, let somebody who lives in Las Vegas (and who also is close to people who have made a nice living in the industry) try helping you to understand what goes into oddsmakers setting the betting line. I'll try to keep it so simple that even you may be able to understand it.

Sports books exist to make money. As such, they try to attract bets that are split 50/50 dollar-wise between the two teams. Why? Because the their "vig" is usually 10% of the total dollar amount being bet. In other words, they get to keep 10% of the money for themselves regardless of which team wins. Call it their commission. They establish the spreads to get as much money as possible being bet as evenly as possible on both participants. Sports books could win or lose big if they deliberately tried to get bettors to bet in a lopsided manner. Instead, they adjust the spread leading up to the game to influence where the books want the betting money to be placed. They don't "like" teams the way you like teams. But they do like your money. They want you to like your team enough to bet on them.

Let's look at some betting factors that involve both the Cowboys and the Packers. Both teams have many die-hard fans who will bet on their teams purely out of sentiment. It's akin to voting (with money) for their favorite team. The sports books love this because of the vig. But other bettors bet to win and have little sentiment other than love of cash. The more bettors the better. Keeping it split 50/50 is the trick.

The spread can both encourage that more money will be bet in total and also that more money will be bet on one team or the other. Remember the vig. So, when the books increase the spread it may be to get more money bet on the other team. For example, the home team being favored by three points is a given. When the spread is adjusted up or down it is meant to influence the betting. If the bets are balanced the spread may be adjusted to help maintain that balance. If you see the spread shift before Sunday keep that in mind. The spread is influenced by the power rating and also by how the bets are being placed. Betting dollars may outweigh the power ratings.

Ever wonder why the spread sometimes includes a half point when no games ever end up being won or lost by such a margin? If you haven't figured that out yet then you may need to remove the Stetson because it could be restricting the flow of blood to your brain. But in case you have no idea here's one important reason why: Should the scoring differential set by the books and the final score of the game be exactly the same, 3 points for instance, it results in a "push." It's a tie of sorts. That means nobody wins (that placed a bet under that spread). There goes the vig on those bets. The money goes back to the bettors. All of it. That displeases the books. And here's something else that you may not know: You can buy points either way in the spread. I'll leave it to you to figure that one out. Hint: Think vig.

Las Vegas books love no team. It"s strictly business. But please continue clinging to that misconception. By all means visit us and place bets with your heart. Besides building billion dollar+ casinos with your losses it helps to lower my taxes.

Hope to see you out here real soon.

First time that I ever quoted my own posts but this was too good to pass-up.
Moments ago I received this from my link who happens to be a local Las Vegas sports book professional:

The line went up to 5. That means ton of public money on cowboys. That's always a good sign. Public is rarely on the right side. Smart money coming in on Packers heavy at plus 5 at the books.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Packers inactives:

Joe Callahan
Jayrone Elliott
Kyle Murphy
Jordy Nelson
Quinten Rollins
James Starks
JC Tretter

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Cowboys:

Richard Ash NT Inactive
Jonathan Cooper OG Inactive
Leon McFadden DB Inactive
Alfred Morris RB Inactive
Mark Nzeocha OLB Inactive
Mark Sanchez QB Inactive

 

[Arod2gjdd]

Also Aikman and Buck are fine, who cares.

 

[P-E-Z]

Cowboys:

Richard Ash NT Inactive
Jonathan Cooper OG Inactive
Leon McFadden DB Inactive
Alfred Morris RB Inactive
Mark Nzeocha OLB Inactive
Mark Sanchez QB Inactive

No Sanchez?? I was so counting on a butt fumble!!!

 

[MiamiBeachPacker]

Packers - 27
Cowboys - 24

 

[Packerdawg]

Let's go Pack! No turnovers.

 

[Pkrjones]

Terry Bradshaw picked the Cowboys to win... Green Bay win is definite, now!!
GB 41-Cowboys 27
On to Atlanta...

 

[Packerdawg]

No Sanchez?? I was so counting on a butt fumble!!!

LOL

 

[pacmaniac]

McCarthy's exam is about to begin. Can he make the necessary adjustments from the earlier game this season?

 

[Packerdawg]

The route has started early.

 

[Brady fan not Rogers]

Packers need a better run game if they wanna beat the cowboys

The Packers are probably going to lose if they don't slow the Cowboys

 

[Packer Brother]

Why do l have visions of January 18TH 2015 dancing in my head?

 

[azrsx05]

We might get robbed by the refs. NFL wants the Cowboys in the super bowl

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

We might get robbed by the refs. NFL wants the Cowboys in the super bowl

We had just enough in the tank to avoid that thank god.

This is one of those wins where you come away thinking, I don't know if it was the most amazing thing ever or ... one of those whew I don't know how we came away with it games.

I'll say with how this game opened up and all the things we had going, I would've liked to have seen a bit more of a statement made at various points in the game, such as not missing Davante for that TD that shoulda been had, and MM had me worried when he started calling questionable passes with just under 2 minutes and not draining that clock.

But man oh man, Jared Cook and Mason Crosby are the MVPs of this one and it's not even close. Man oh man and we did this in spite of DC which, I got plenty to say about him, but for now..... Boooyaaahhhhh.

 

[swhitset]

No offense taken at all, I'm just trying to be realistic.. You know how it is, you go over to another forum and your hear confuted discussions going on that makes no sense... If we were playing a truly better team I would be singing a different tune. It's going to take an upset for the pack to win, but I'm hopeful for a great game. I will be back to either congratulate you guys or discuss what went wrong. Peace.

Well ??

 

[mongoosev]

shttt this is unreal!

 

[swhitset]

The Packers don’t stand a chance

Green Bay is a really good team, but let’s not go crazy and outthink the room that they’re so hot, therefore they’re better than the Cowboys.

Let’s look at a few numbers to show just why the Cowboys are the wrong team for the Packers to be facing.

Please define "chance"

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Well ??

Give him time to collect himself!

 

[THill]

Congrats Packer fans from a Cowboys fan. Yes, I'm pretty upset but I think our future looks good.

Let me just say I have never seen a team like the Packers - a pure one man team! It makes the loss even worse for me.

 

[swhitset]

Congrats Packer fans from a Cowboys fan. Yes, I'm pretty upset but I think our future looks good.

Let me just say I have never seen a team like the Packers - a pure one man team! It makes the loss even worse for me.

First... thank you. Second Rodgers is great no question.... but he is not a one man team which I think even many in this forum fail to realize. I actually think a lot of other teams overlook how many offensive weapons the Packers truly have, and that works to the Packer's advantage.

 

[Poppa San]

Give him time to collect himself!

Crow takes a while to prepare properly. And some can't handle it.

 

[THill]

First... thank you. Second Rodgers is great no question.... but he is not a one man team which I think even many in this forum fail to realize. I actually think a lot of other teams overlook how many offensive weapons the Packers truly have, and that works to the Packer's advantage.

Disagree 100%. Your receivers are in the NFL. None that I saw that was special today. The difference is that Rodgers puts the ball in perfect position for them to catch it. He is not missing right now. Ball is right there and any NFL receiver should be able to catch. And I'm being un-bias here.

Congrats! I think no D will be able to stop him. I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta scores 60 against your D. Packers have no D and no running game. They have a QB who is playing out of his mind. that is a one man team to me.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Congrats Packer fans from a Cowboys fan. Yes, I'm pretty upset but I think our future looks good.

Let me just say I have never seen a team like the Packers - a pure one man team! It makes the loss even worse for me.

Really? You watching the same game as the rest of us? Maybe the Cowboys will get some support for Elliott next year, their future is looking bright.

Oh and have a good off season, you've earned it.