Za'Darius Smith All-Pro Snub

[Dantés]

The AP NFL All Pro selections came out. I don't have too many issues with the choices, but Za'Darius Smith definitely got snubbed.

The 1st Team at EDGE are Chandler Jones and T.J. Watt.

The 2nd Team are Shaq Barrett and Cam Jordan.

The selections make it pretty clear what drove the choices-- sack totals. With 13.5 sacks this season, Za'Darius was 6th overall, and four of the guys in front of him are the four mentioned above. The other is Danielle Hunter.

However, that's a reductionist outlook on the position.

Smith was tied for 1st in the NFL with 37 QB hits, per PFF.

Smith created the most disruptions as a pass rusher, with 84, of anyone in the league per Next Gen Stats. They also credited him with the 2nd most turnover causing pressures.

By espn stat's measure, his 61 pressures were the most in the NFL.

His 17 tackles for loss (outside of sacks) were 3rd among all edge rushers, with Shaq Barrett (19) being the only All Pro selection with more.

Furthermore, he did it against everyone. He beat left tackles, right tackles, guards, centers, and auxiliary blockers all season-- often facing double teams.

By rights, he's a 1st Team All Pro. The other selections are great, but their seasons did not measure up to Za'Darius'.

 

[Do7]

It doesn't matter, while that is true, we're aiming for a much bigger prize so chances are he wouldn't be able to go anyways!

 

[PackAttack12]

I hope this adds even more fuel to his fire to wreak absolute havoc on the NFL playoffs for three games.

 

[XPack]

It doesn't matter, while that is true, we're aiming for a much bigger prize so chances are he wouldn't be able to go anyways!

I'm sure it matters, irrespective of whether he's able to go or not.

 

[AmishMafia]

It doesn't matter, while that is true, we're aiming for a much bigger prize so chances are he wouldn't be able to go anyways!

Go where?

 

[PackAttack12]

Go where?

It doesn't matter, while that is true, we're aiming for a much bigger prize so chances are he wouldn't be able to go anyways!

All-pro is different than the Pro-Bowl, sport.

 

[C-Lee]

Pro Bowl All Pro? We're going to the Super Bowl!

 

[Do7]

Pro Bowl All Pro? We're going to the Super Bowl!

This man gets it!

 

[longtimefan]

All pro is by media I believe

 

[OldSchool101]

I hope this adds even more fuel to his fire to wreak absolute havoc on the NFL playoffs for three games.

I know right!? Wouldn’t it be just fantastic to see him just wreck another OL or two again on his way to a Defensive MVP. Now that would bring a smile!!

 

[HardRightEdge]

In addition to the solid argument presented by Dante in the OP, PFF named Z. to their first team All Pro team along with T.J. Watt while crediting Z. with a league leading 90 pressures. While that pressure count compared to ESPN's league leading 60 continues to call into question the subjectivity of advanced stats hidden behind a veneer of numbers, the fact that so many advanced analytics from so many sources indicate first team qualifications is telling.

Even raw pressure counts don't tell the whole story. For example, pro-football-reference.com came up with 55 pressures off of 35 total blitz rushes for Z. It should come as no surprise that the Packers blitzed very little this season.

In comparison to Chandler Jones, even if you were to look askance at fuzzy pressure numbers and overweight sacks as definitively impactful, pro-football-reference.com has him down for 41 pressures, 14 fewer pressures worth of fuzziness in the comparison, but his productivity came on 143 total blitz rushes. An asute observer would downgrade the sack count in the comparison for all the extra help Jones received in getting that number.

In fairness to Jones, he led the league in forced fumbles with 8 compared to Smith's 1. Fumbles are roughly a 50/50 proposition, so if we count the 8 as a 4 turnover equivalent, that's a huge contribution. If those forced fumbles came on strip sacks when blitzing, again you have the question what he'd do without all the help in the comparison. The overall difference between the two players based on these stats is not as large as the voting would suggest and if you break down run defense where would you be? I'm thinking it's a toss-up knowing what I know which is far from I'd need to know since I watched next to no AZ football this year. And the voters are in the same boat. You can bet few if any of voters watched all the leading candidates enough to make an informed decision.

The vote counts are at the bottom of this link:

https://apnews.com/eeca59cc33eb5eeb11f3d08e7b0328c1

50 media guys cast one vote at each positional slot, e.g., 50 votes cast at QB, 100 votes cast at WR, etc. There's no scale or ranking involved. A vote is all or nothing.

Z got 9 votes and landed in 5th. place, 3 votes behind Jordon to make second team. 8 players got at least one vote. I'd have to do a lot more digging and hundreds of hours of tape watching on Game Pass to say if that's right or wrong. I'm not voting and don't care all that deeply to do a full post morem. But I'll say this much:

Like the guys who vote for this would tell you, I believe I've watched enough football for long enough to know what an All Pro season looks like and Z's certainly qualifies. On the other hand, like the voters, I've not seen enough of the other guys to say they are not a notch better. The difference is that if I did have a vote, and wasn't going to do 100's of hours of film study, as few if any of these voters were inclined to do, I'd be using the advanced metrics from these various sources to inform me about players I have not seen much.

One thing I'd like to know is the average time-to-pressure. A good secondary generates coverage pressure and sacks. Is a guy getting his pressures at 3 seconds or 2 or 4, and what's the difference on blitz vs. no blitz?

It does appear that most voters just looked at the sacks and forced fumbles and went with that. They may be right, but it may just be a happy accident for Jones, I couldn't say for sure. Maybe some threw up their hands and voted on reputation as the difference maker, Jones being an All Pro in 2017. Reputation and body of work counts for a lot in these things. Maybe a couple think pot is the demon weed and knocked Z down a notch for his pot bust. Who knows.

These votes rely on the averaging out in the "wisdom of crowds", a concept with a sketchy track record. I do know Z's perfornace this season was All Pro caliber. I'm pretty happy about that. Maybe he'll get the vote next year when somebody else might deserve it a little more because of his growing reputation. That's the way these things often work out.

 

[Dantés]

In addition to the solid argument presented by Dante in the OP, PFF named Z. to their first team All Pro team along with T.J. Watt while crediting Z. with a league leading 90 pressures. While that pressure count compared to ESPN's league leading 60 continues to call into question the subjectivity of advanced stats hidden behind a veneer of numbers, the fact that so many advanced analytics from so many sources indicate first team qualifications is telling.

This was my thought too. I agree that pressures are a dubious metric, but when every major advanced metric outlet you can find is in agreement, you have to figure there's fire behind all the smoke. And of course, we witnessed it happening as Packer fans.

Good nugget on the blitz %. That certainly makes a difference.

One other ridiculous result of the All Pro voting-- T.J. Watt is a first team edge rusher and a second team off-ball linebacker (a position that he does not play...). Apparently a good % of the media guys who vote on this stuff aren't clear on the distinction between a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 OLB.

 

[gbgary]

"go?" being named ALL PRO is an award, an honor...not a game.

 

[Sky King]

...Apparently a good % of the media guys who vote on this stuff aren't clear on the distinction between a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 OLB.

Once again, my signature line below is apropos.

 

[Passepartout]

Really he got robbed. What a shame!

 

[Notso]

There's also this little nugget.

Packers OLB Za'Darius Smith has been NFL's most double-teamed edge rusher.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...has-been-nfls-most-double-teamed-edge-rusher/

 

[HardRightEdge]

One other ridiculous result of the All Pro voting-- T.J. Watt is a first team edge rusher and a second team off-ball linebacker (a position that he does not play...). Apparently a good % of the media guys who vote on this stuff aren't clear on the distinction between a 3-4 OLB and a 4-3 OLB.

There may be a knucklehead or two accounting for some of that. I think the more likely scenario is some voters who had T.J. Watt as their #3 edge rusher, and thereby couldn't give him a vote at his position, liked him enough as a player over the off-the-ball candidate "Linebackers" thay threw him a vote out of position.

Z. also go a vote as an off-the-ball linebacker. Is that a knuckhead vote or is it, "F*ck the position designations, he's too good to leave out." Well, when you see the other 1/2 dozen or so edge players getting a vote or two at Linebacker, I'd say there's a fair amount of "f*ck you" in the equation. I'm pretty sure all the voters know Miller and Mack, among others, do not play off the ball and we see them getting votes there.

The "Flex" voting is odd. Now you've got both first and second teams a player short with guys playing two positions. Voters clearly don't like the idea of one RB vote and kinda defied the idea of Flex which should be a slot receiver, or a TE in certain offenses that use two a lot, or RBs who spend more time split out than these guys. All you get here is the skill position player that a voter likes best after he's run out of votes at the standard positions.

The "Defensive Back" category is a joke. Peters and Humphries made the first team as DBs while getting only one CB vote between them. They each got 7 DB votes as some voters 5th. best DB one presumes. Sherman on the other hand got 10 CB votes, and because of that only 1 DB vote. They're all perimeter corners, and the voters liked Sherman better. A couple of voters interpreted this DB postion as "slot corner", with Tramon Williams and Chris Harris getting a couple of votes, to take a two examples, but not many looked at it that way.

If you're going to have this seperate DB position, just give the nod to the CB or S with the next highest vote total (Sherman) or keep the voting category and name the 5th. DB as the guy who has the most CB or S plus DB votes (Mathieu). Or better yet, make them vote for slot corners. Of course voters would have to figure out who they are and what they do which might be a burden. As it stands, a miscount is embedded in the struture.

I'm actually starting to like the Pro Bowl voting better, for all its obvious flaws. At least a wider net is cast with fewer worthy names getting left off, sadly not the case for Z. We have an instance in the All Pro defensive backfield where the system doesn't even know how to count.

 

[HardRightEdge]

There's also this little nugget.

Packers OLB Za'Darius Smith has been NFL's most double-teamed edge rusher.

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...has-been-nfls-most-double-teamed-edge-rusher/

What he's showing there is win rate (getting to the QB in under 2.5 seconds) vs. the frequency of double teams. The further to the upper right you go, the more effective the pass rusher once you've adjusted for the double teams. You are correct that he's showing Z. as the most frequently doubled team. I find that a little surprising but not that much. The Packers don't blitz much, they rush 3 more often than I'd like (which would be never), and Z. is the biggest threat.

Anyway, by the measures taken in this chart, the top pressure guys are Z., Clowney, Garrett, Lawrence and Quinn. At least Smith got 9 All Pro votes; the others got none. I wonder where this guy gets his data.

This guy has Z. ranked 8th. in pressure rate. But he's limiting pressures to edge snaps exclusively and only those where pressure is generated inside 2.5 seconds. Z. has increasingly taken snaps inside and has been especially effective from that spot.

Where does this guy get his data? How do you vet it? We see wide variances in what constitutes a pressure in the raw numbers from other sources. At least Z. is consistently at the top of those rankings as cited above.

There's more to life on the edge than bringing pressure, but it is a good place to start.

 

[Ogsponge]

The AP NFL All Pro selections came out. I don't have too many issues with the choices, but Za'Darius Smith definitely got snubbed.

The 1st Team at EDGE are Chandler Jones and T.J. Watt.

The 2nd Team are Shaq Barrett and Cam Jordan.

The selections make it pretty clear what drove the choices-- sack totals. With 13.5 sacks this season, Za'Darius was 6th overall, and four of the guys in front of him are the four mentioned above. The other is Danielle Hunter.

However, that's a reductionist outlook on the position.

Smith was tied for 1st in the NFL with 37 QB hits, per PFF.

Smith created the most disruptions as a pass rusher, with 84, of anyone in the league per Next Gen Stats. They also credited him with the 2nd most turnover causing pressures.

By espn stat's measure, his 61 pressures were the most in the NFL.

His 17 tackles for loss (outside of sacks) were 3rd among all edge rushers, with Shaq Barrett (19) being the only All Pro selection with more.

Furthermore, he did it against everyone. He beat left tackles, right tackles, guards, centers, and auxiliary blockers all season-- often facing double teams.

By rights, he's a 1st Team All Pro. The other selections are great, but their seasons did not measure up to Za'Darius'.

wait you mean the guy that should be in green and gold was named 1st team all pro? What did you do king? Thanks Ted.

 

[swhitset]

This man gets it!

And you don’t ... there is s nowhere to go. All Pro is an honor and a designation.. and one that actually matters... There is no game to go to. This has nothing to do with the Pro Bowl.

 

[Do7]

And you don’t ... there is s nowhere to go. All Pro is an honor and a designation.. and one that actually matters... There is no game to go to. This has nothing to do with the Pro Bowl.

Must you always take an indirect shot at me in some form? I was simply agreeing with him saying we're going to the SB, and I have since been corrected in the error of what I said. I am well aware that All Pro does not mean the same thing as Pro Bowl. I mean it's not like there were several people that hadn't already corrected me on the matter. But thanks anyways. I get it.

 

[swhitset]

Must you always take an indirect shot at me in some form? I was simply agreeing with him saying we're going to the SB, and I have since been corrected in the error of what I said. I am well aware that All Pro does not mean the same thing as Pro Bowl. I mean it's not like there were several people that hadn't already corrected me on the matter. But thanks anyways. I get it.

well even though several had pointed it out you continued to ignore them and deflected.... a simple acknowledgement would have ended it immediately.

 

[Do7]

well even though several had pointed it out you continued to ignore them and deflected.... a simple acknowledgement would have ended it immediately.

No...You assumed I did. And simply because I chose not to respond to them doesn't mean that "ignored" them, nor can I see how you can flip it to where I deflected. You saw the post I responded to, and it was largely regards to my belief in regards to making it to The Superbowl. I didn't respond because I didn't think there was a need to, it was an honest and silly error on my part and I was hastily corrected and moved on. No harm no foul. There you again always assuming the worst when it comes with me specifically. It's really getting old at this point dude. It's weird how only you just so happened to be the person to go out of there way to respond to that harmless post I made because of some bs notion that I am trying to reflect, especially considering I have a good track record of owning my mistakes. I could argue that you're trying to deflect as what you said was unnecessary, and it would be something you would call me out on. So again what's your deal?

 

[melvin dangerr]

All pro is by media I believe

I thought NFL coaches had some say, can you correct me please

 

[longtimefan]

I thought NFL coaches had some say, can you correct me please

Ap writers I believe.

Coaches have say in pro bowl