I would say a top flite WR is a luxury pick this season. Especially if we draft in the top half of rd 1. One of several need positions could be filled at that spot.
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tynimiller
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Um.....so let me get this straight it is either keep watson but lose all the guys you listed or draft Harrison Jr and lose Watson?
I'm sorry but that is the easiest choice ever and not even something which should be considered. You keep everyone but Watson and add MHJr.
Fair assessment. While Gluten can't plug all the holes - LT, S, RB, and CB would be my priorities. I think the D line is ok, he'll eventually have to draft Clark's replacement.
And adding another athletic ILB like Walker would be good. Walker is above average with potential for more. The Edge is ok with Gary and LVN but needs depth. Smith is in decline.
They don't need a rebuild. They need much better coaching and help at these positions.
tynimiller
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To be fair the DL needs a replacement for what we'd hoped Wyatt would be or a new rookie replacement for all the time Slaton has been proving worthy of playing but arguably not worth a second contract due to cost.
FTR which many may not realize...of our iDL their snap counts by % of total Defensive snaps tell a massive story for Wyatt:
Kenny Clark - 71.4
TJ Slaton - 58.16
Devonte Wyatt - 48.52
Karl Brooks - 35.06
Colby Wooden - 24.15
I mean Slaton and Wyatt are different types but I truthfully expect a first rounder to not be getting out snapped by a fifth rounder with one more year of time in the NFL....
Thanks for the stats. Yeah I think it's fair to say that neither Wyatt or Walker have lived up to 1st round status, with Wyatt being the biggest disappointment. Brooks and Wooden have played well considering draft position.
Slaton has also played well considering draft position. I guess that's one reason why having more picks is so valuable.
tynimiller
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Walker's lack of progression this year is setting up this team handling the aging of Campbell not well at all. Truthfully if Gute wrote down a priority is leaving Day2 with a new off ball LB for us as a must I'd completely understand it.
Yeah Walker has the physical traits to play a cover ILB, but he just can't execute. He can't cover and he can't shed blockers. He's a decent tackler, but damn I expect more from a high draft pick. And yeah, Campbell is on the back 9.
There is no part of Walker's game that stands out. I mean he's not terrible. He lacks the instincts needed to play that position. Has a future as a backup, but barring a huge year 3 jump, that's it.
He is a good example of how hard it is to find real NFL talent in the draft. Walker and Wyatt illustrate that. Both first round picks, both from a collegiate champion at Georgia, and then **** in the NFL.
tynimiller
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I'm not as negative on Walker, but I'm in the same camp of I need more for sure. Would love him to not be expected to be our ILB1 for sure.
thequick12
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Im not getting why youd have to drop watson to draft Marvin Harrison Jr
The way i see it they have 4 locks at wr heading into 2024...
Christian Watson (2nd), Romeo Doubs (4th), Jayden Reed (2nd), Dontayvion Wicks (5th)
And 2 locks at te...
Luke Musgrave (2nd), Tucker Kraft (3rd)
That leaves room for up to 2 wrs and 2 tes on the 53 man roster.
Marvin Harrison Jr (1st) and another mid round guy has to be an option at wr. As does possibly a more veteran guy like Tee Higgins or bpa Mike Evans. Malik Heath could definitely stick as well
At te a more veteran guy also has to be an option along with a mid round pick. Ben Sims could also hold onto his spot
tynimiller
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It was the hypothetical scenario I was responding to.
Agreed. Unless they traded up, which would be nuts, they have no chance at MH Jr.
They do have needs at LT, S, CB, and RB and roughly in that order. They have five picks in rds 1-3, so they should be able to get some decent talent. I don't know the draft depth at these positions.
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I think that in the Journal Sentinel podcast a few weeks ago, one of them talked with Watson about the hamstrings. They discussed how Clay Matthews had chronic hamstring issues his first few seasons as well, until he figured it out. Watson has been hiring private experts who seem to agree that it is his lower back (I believe that's what it was, either that or abs) that are too weak which leads to hammy issues. Essentially it's something that he's got to work on in the offseason.
Queue up the forum member that wants to fire the training staff....
Queue up the forum member that wants to fire the training staff....
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Why would we have to "lose" players to draft a WR? Not getting your logic. Are you saying try to trade up for Harrison and throw Watson in with everything else? Harrison will be one of the top 3 guys off the board, I wouldn't be in favor of moving up to get him, unless the Packers lose out and are sitting at the #4 or #5 pick?
As far as using a high pick on a WR, I wouldn't at this point, too many other needs (LT, S, CB, ILB). All the WR's this season are either rookies or 2nd year guys. Give them some time with Love and an NFL offense. Trust me, I have been the one screaming for better WR talent for years, I think we finally have it.
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Malik Nabors or Rome Odunze would be the only Top End types we’d flirt with AND will be on our radar to some degree. Marvin won’t make it to us and we won’t trade up to get him imo.
Like anything else, until we draft a WR that early I have a hard time thinking we’ll completely change our draft methodology. We’ve been very successful drafting WR’s in Day2-into the 4th Round.
If there was a position group that needs help it’s our Secondary. I’d add 1 high end Safety or 1 high end CB. There’s a few difference makers in the level of J’aire 2.0 that would completely change the dynamics of our DB room.
I’ve seen as many as 25 WR’s grade out in the top 3 Rounds (including that Compensatory area). That means there’s an above average probability that several fall moderate to hard right into our lap. We have SIX draft picks in Rounds 2,3,4 and that is absolutely an area to snag a really great deal as we repeatedly go on the clock.
Brian talked about how getting an extra 3rd Rounder often nets him a guy on their Top 50 board. WR is the most likely position group of that in 2024. Especially with the Bills having a 8-6 record showing some inconsistencies. If he sees a WR rated at #45,48,51 on our board he might pass at pick #47. However, He’s not going to ignore that player if he’s close enough to sniff with the Bills bonus pick. I highly doubt he drafts more than 1 WR this year, but 60% chance he goes WR.
Like anything else, until we draft a WR that early I have a hard time thinking we’ll completely change our draft methodology. We’ve been very successful drafting WR’s in Day2-into the 4th Round.
If there was a position group that needs help it’s our Secondary. I’d add 1 high end Safety or 1 high end CB. There’s a few difference makers in the level of J’aire 2.0 that would completely change the dynamics of our DB room.
I’ve seen as many as 25 WR’s grade out in the top 3 Rounds (including that Compensatory area). That means there’s an above average probability that several fall moderate to hard right into our lap. We have SIX draft picks in Rounds 2,3,4 and that is absolutely an area to snag a really great deal as we repeatedly go on the clock.
Brian talked about how getting an extra 3rd Rounder often nets him a guy on their Top 50 board. WR is the most likely position group of that in 2024. Especially with the Bills having a 8-6 record showing some inconsistencies. If he sees a WR rated at #45,48,51 on our board he might pass at pick #47. However, He’s not going to ignore that player if he’s close enough to sniff with the Bills bonus pick. I highly doubt he drafts more than 1 WR this year, but 60% chance he goes WR.
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Agreed and well said. Going after MH Jr. would be nuts. I think the top needs are LT, S, CB and RB - and I can see ILB given Campbell's decline and the average play of Walker. And the Packers have two picks in rds 2 and 3, so they should get some decent talent.
In spite of recent disappointments, I'm ok with the talent. I'm not ok with the coaching, especially the DC but what's new? Barry will be gone and MLF will be on the hot seat next year. He'll be judged, rightfully, by the DC he selects and upping his testosterone level with the team. Not everyone will be Dan Campbell, but MLF needs to take his tutu off and start acting like a leader.
I certainly expect the team to win 10 - 12 games next year and make the playoffs. And I expect less extremes in performance from week to week. This isn't a team in rebuild. The team has decent talent, it will get better in the offseason, and everyone will have another year of experience.
Time to see if MLF can win without Rodgers. If he can't someone else can. Maybe that guy in Boston......
El Guapo
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I think that the problem some people see, is that we consistently draft for need and rarely the BPA (Rodgers and Love the glaring exceptions). Defense has been the greatest need throughout most of Rodgers' career in Green Bay, and it never got markedly better despite most of our top picks being on the defensive side of the ball.
Only 3 out of 17 1st round picks since Rodgers became a starter were on offense. Two were linemen (Bulaga and Sherrod) and the other was Jordan Love. Now the 14 defensive players have generally been very good players, but our defense really didn't get better.
IMO the most important defensive stat is the opponents points per game. The stats that I found start in 2003, so in the six years leading up to Rodgers' becoming the starter, we ranked 17.7 on average. Starting in 2009 when we drafted BJ Raji and Clay Mathews, our defense averaged 16.1 through 2022. Not much of a change when we focused on our defensive need. We could blame the scouts and the GMs making the picks, which is fair. But it's also fair to assess the strategy.
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Only 3 out of 17 1st round picks since Rodgers became a starter were on offense. Two were linemen (Bulaga and Sherrod) and the other was Jordan Love. Now the 14 defensive players have generally been very good players, but our defense really didn't get better.
IMO the most important defensive stat is the opponents points per game. The stats that I found start in 2003, so in the six years leading up to Rodgers' becoming the starter, we ranked 17.7 on average. Starting in 2009 when we drafted BJ Raji and Clay Mathews, our defense averaged 16.1 through 2022. Not much of a change when we focused on our defensive need. We could blame the scouts and the GMs making the picks, which is fair. But it's also fair to assess the strategy.
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Points per Game | TeamRankings.com
NFL Football opponent points per game, by team.
www.teamrankings.com
OldSchool101
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Totally agree.I think that the problem some people see, is that we consistently draft for need and rarely the BPA (Rodgers and Love the glaring exceptions). Defense has been the greatest need throughout most of Rodgers' career in Green Bay, and it never got markedly better despite most of our top picks being on the defensive side of the ball.
Only 3 out of 17 1st round picks since Rodgers became a starter were on offense. Two were linemen (Bulaga and Sherrod) and the other was Jordan Love. Now the 14 defensive players have generally been very good players, but our defense really didn't get better.
IMO the most important defensive stat is the opponents points per game. The stats that I found start in 2003, so in the six years leading up to Rodgers' becoming the starter, we ranked 17.7 on average. Starting in 2009 when we drafted BJ Raji and Clay Mathews, our defense averaged 16.1 through 2022. Not much of a change when we focused on our defensive need. We could blame the scouts and the GMs making the picks, which is fair. But it's also fair to assess the strategy.
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Points per Game | TeamRankings.com
NFL Football opponent points per game, by team.
I would only offer that one possible (and regular) offset is us picking very late each draft. There is power in repeatedly picking earlier. We didn’t have a Winning season in 2005,’06,’08
That resulted in these players drafted the next year.
AJ Hawk, D Colledge,
Gregg Jennings, Jason Spitz
James Jones, Brandon Jackson
Corey Hall, BJ Raji, CM3, TJ Lang
Plus a few hits later Bishop, Crosby etc
Lots of homegrown draft picks that were instrumental in our postseason success.
Then we sprinkled some FA additions with Woodson and Ryan Pickett and carried over a few really good veterans in Tramon and Driver etc.
Those 3 seasons drafting in the top 16 (added to our 2005 start at QB Rd1 + Nick Collins in Rd2) were what eventually propelled our SB.
We got our QB. Let’s go hit back to back drafts in the top 16 again and then add at least 1 veteran FA Stud level player in the secondary or possibly upfront on D. Plus maybe a mid tier outside FA G/C Let’s see what all these players injected across 2 seasons do. We’ve got about as good a draft coming up as anything we’ve seen since Rodgers set foot.
Time to get a really good DC. We are literally the 2008 GB Packers and maybe a smidge better.
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Agree with almost everything here El G, and well said. And yes, defensive ppg is how a D should be measured over the long haul. And it's easy to se why. Ya gotta score more points than ya give up.I think that the problem some people see, is that we consistently draft for need and rarely the BPA (Rodgers and Love the glaring exceptions). Defense has been the greatest need throughout most of Rodgers' career in Green Bay, and it never got markedly better despite most of our top picks being on the defensive side of the ball.
Only 3 out of 17 1st round picks since Rodgers became a starter were on offense. Two were linemen (Bulaga and Sherrod) and the other was Jordan Love. Now the 14 defensive players have generally been very good players, but our defense really didn't get better.
IMO the most important defensive stat is the opponents points per game. The stats that I found start in 2003, so in the six years leading up to Rodgers' becoming the starter, we ranked 17.7 on average. Starting in 2009 when we drafted BJ Raji and Clay Mathews, our defense averaged 16.1 through 2022. Not much of a change when we focused on our defensive need. We could blame the scouts and the GMs making the picks, which is fair. But it's also fair to assess the strategy.
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Points per Game | TeamRankings.com
NFL Football opponent points per game, by team.
As for taking the BPA in the draft, almost no team does it. And a lot depends on where a team stands as far as current talent. Can a team with no good answer at QB afford to not take a solid QB? Probably not, and really QB isn't the best example.
But that's not the Packers (they don't need a QB now anyway, although I would just say the jury is still out on whether Love was the BPA in 2020, my only disagreement). The Packers can afford to take the BPA, and if they were to do that over time, with discipline, they'd get better and have fewer busts. There are a few other practical limitations, but I like the idea of taking the BPA as a matter of practice.
I can easily argue with myself on this point. The Packers needs right now are LT, S, CB, and RB, roughly in order. If a solid LT is sitting there, I probably wouldn't be too upset if he was taken over a BPA. My point is that teams that consistently drafted the BPA would probably end up with better players. I'm certain I'll get disagreement on this. And it's pretty subjective anyway, especially after round 2 or 3.
El Guapo
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I think that you draft for need in the first round or two when it roughly aligns with BPA. However, if it's the middle of the first round and there is an absolute stud DL sitting there....we should take that player over the need.
Pokerbrat2000
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Interesting Stats for 2023.
So far, there has not been a RB or Receiver that has had a 100 yard game for the Packers.
Dontayvion Wicks’ 97 last week against Tampa Bay is the most yards for a WR.
AJ Dillon’s 76 yards in the loss against the Raiders is the highest total for a RB.
So far, there has not been a RB or Receiver that has had a 100 yard game for the Packers.
Dontayvion Wicks’ 97 last week against Tampa Bay is the most yards for a WR.
AJ Dillon’s 76 yards in the loss against the Raiders is the highest total for a RB.
tynimiller
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However, we've had some century guys when you combine rushing and receiving...
Aaron Jones vs CHI
Jayden Reed vs MIN
Jayden Reed vs PIT
Reed and Dillon have both broken 90 a couple other times too
Aaron Jones vs CHI
Jayden Reed vs MIN
Jayden Reed vs PIT
Reed and Dillon have both broken 90 a couple other times too
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Love doesn't typically determine which play is run and who the first options are.
I'm sure this is true. The question is does he follow his reads? Early in the year I'd say no. He'd look to his first read, and if that wasn't open, he'd throw the ball away. Now he looks to be doing a much better job at slowing down the game for himself. I wonder about the order of his reads and how he keeps track when the decisions are made in fractions of a second. Well, that applies to any QB I guess.
On first read, the stats are concerning. But a number of the rookie and 2nd year receivers have stepped up, giving MLF and Love time to spread the ball around.
I would have expected Jones at least to have a few 100 yard rushing games. But he's been injured a lot and on a snap count when he does play. And it's a hard position to play and he's been at it a while.
Dillon is a possession guy and I don't expect 100 yard games from him.
Anyway, RB will need to be addressed in the draft.
tynimiller
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Jones is averaging 3.8 this year per carry / Dillon 3.5....barely any difference this year.
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