Week 5: Packers @ Lions

[OldSchool101]

I think this could be a big game. Last week, I watched Dallas pretty much run up and down the field with Zeke. I knew Detroit was in trouble when they left Dallas with over 2 min and a timeout and a FG needed to seal the deal.

GBs running game (and short passing) is going to be too much for Detroit to handle, if MM decides to exploit them. I’d like to see us control the clock with systematic long drives and get our TEs more involved inside their 20.

If our D plays even as a shadow of last week? this should be a W. I still have the utmost respect for what Stafford can she’ll out, but the GB Offense finds a stride in the middle of this one..
GB 33 Detroit 22

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Their pass defense is statistically strong. Surprisingly, they're 4th in the league in sacks at 13 (tied with the Packers, in fact). Some relative unknowns are making big contributions: Eli Harold (3), Devon Kennard (4).

Their secondary is solid as far as I know. Slay is an excellent corner, and Quinn and Diggs are both solid starters.

My guess is that the skewed defensive statistics are a combination of a weak run defense and some legitimate talent when it comes to pass defense.

Once again, as HRE and I have pointed out in this thread the Lions pass defense is ranked only 27th in passer rating allowed. The reason they haven't allowed a ton of yards is solely based on a lack of attempts against them.

 

[Dantés]

Once again, as HRE and I have pointed out in this thread the Lions pass defense is ranked only 27th in passer rating allowed. The reason they haven't allowed a ton of yards is solely based on a lack of attempts against them.

I saw that after I posted. It’s notable.

However, I am still surprised at how often they’ve gotten to the QB, especially with Ansah only accounting for one sack (especially high number given the relative low amount of pass attempts against them).

 

[HardRightEdge]

Its the media and the fans who keep bringing it up who are turning it into drama. The Packers will have 500 yards and 45 points against the Lions and all of a sudden everything is hunky dory again.

Rodgers might say a solid game plan would yield "600 yds".

 

[Sunshinepacker]

See, I'm all for getting the ball to Jones more, but I still want a committee. Jones gets to hurt so why expose him to a lot of carries in a game we should win? I like Jamaal, he is a nice compliment and can take a pounding. There are plays and situations that he is better suited too. Montgommery should only be used on delays, sweeps, screens and passes. No more between the tackles.

It's kind of weird how quickly guys get labeled as injury-prone. I'm not saying we need to hand the ball to Jones 32 times a game but it's obvious he's the best RB. He should be on the field for more than a third of the offensive snaps. That doesn't mean you give him the ball on every one of those snaps but the defense is going to have to place a lot more emphasis on the run with Jones just being in the game compared to Williams. Yeah, make Williams the goal line guy, sure. But don't take your best RB off the field for two-thirds of the game.

 

[Mondio]

He either missed outright or much of a game he was injured in, in about a third of the season last year. To start this year he missed a month of TC, so most of it and then was suspended 2 weeks. How much did you want to give him in a game we were never in danger of losing? I can't say I'd label him "durable".

 

[pacmaniac]

First I've heard of Allison having a concussion.

 

[AmishMafia]

It's kind of weird how quickly guys get labeled as injury-prone. I'm not saying we need to hand the ball to Jones 32 times a game but it's obvious he's the best RB. He should be on the field for more than a third of the offensive snaps. That doesn't mean you give him the ball on every one of those snaps but the defense is going to have to place a lot more emphasis on the run with Jones just being in the game compared to Williams. Yeah, make Williams the goal line guy, sure. But don't take your best RB off the field for two-thirds of the game.

Whether he carries the ball or blocks he is subject to injury. We are playing thee worst team in the NFL for stopping the run. I expect Williams to move the sticks just fine. Having Jones in will not help the Packers chances of winning. Unless it moves us from 98% to 98.2%. There is no reason to expose him to injury. Run Williams and if things are going south, then increase Jones workload. I hope they make things easy on Rodgers as well. Lots of runs and mostly short quick passes. Let's keep him upright this game and let that knee heal.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Once again, as HRE and I have pointed out in this thread the Lions pass defense is ranked only 27th in passer rating allowed. The reason they haven't allowed a ton of yards is solely based on a lack of attempts against them.

I saw that after I posted. It’s notable.

However, I am still surprised at how often they’ve gotten to the QB, especially with Ansah only accounting for one sack (especially high number given the relative low amount of pass attempts against them).

It's a smallish sample size in sloppy early season football. It's probably worth looking at each Detroit game to get a better sense of these stats. I've excluded QB runs from the rushing stats (this ain't college ball).

Week 1

Darnold: 116.8 passer rating, 2 sacks
Non-QB runs: 30 for 168, 2 TDs, 5.6 avg.

Week 2

Garoppolo: 118.4 passer rating, 6 sacks
Non-QB runs: 25 for 186, 1 TD, 7.4 avg.

Week 3

Brady: 65.1 passer rating, 2 sacks
Non-QB runs: 18 for 87, 0 TDs, 4.8 avg.

Week 4

Prescott: 118.6 passer rating, 3 sacks
Non-QB runs: 31 for 181, 0 TDs, 5.7 avg.

A couple of things jump out:

• 6 of Detroit's 13 sacks came against SF. That didn't stop SF from putting up 30 points and 346 yds on 60 plays.
• All 4 opponents have been able to run the ball effectively, with the ability to adjust for Elliott by week 4 not in evidence while also not being affective against the pass in that game
• Brady's performance is an obvious abberation and outlier, and while the rushing average in that game is impressive it actually drove down the 4 game average
• Excluding the abberant week 2 Patriot's performance, while carving out QB runs from the data, Detroit's passing and rushing defense has been even worse than it appears.

While past performance is no guarantee of future returns, to date this is a pretty bad defense. That said, I would expect the Packers to use the run more often than average unless they get in an early hole.

 

[C-Lee]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1047876279146565632[/TWEET]
Young bloods need to step up.

 

[C-Lee]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/packers/status/1047883569501298694[/TWEET]

Yancey back

 

[HardRightEdge]

First I've heard of Allison having a concussion.

??? He left the game last week after taking a helmet shot to the chops. I'd have surprised if he wasn't in the concussion protocol.

 

[Mondio]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1047876279146565632[/TWEET]
Young bloods need to step up.

Understatement

 

[Snoops]

It is time to unleash Aaron jones and feed him the ball!!!!!! Quit playing

 

[AmishMafia]

Packers 32 lions 13. Boooooyah!

 

[Jerellh528]

Rodgers might say a solid game plan would yield "600 yds".

Nah he said in the buffalo game they shoulda had 45 points and 600 yards. He prolly thinks their defense is inferior to many teams.

 

[Jerellh528]

First I've heard of Allison having a concussion.

You didn’t watch the last game?

 

[C-Lee]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/AaronNagler/status/1047946377614057472[/TWEET]

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Whether he carries the ball or blocks he is subject to injury. We are playing thee worst team in the NFL for stopping the run. I expect Williams to move the sticks just fine. Having Jones in will not help the Packers chances of winning. Unless it moves us from 98% to 98.2%. There is no reason to expose him to injury. Run Williams and if things are going south, then increase Jones workload. I hope they make things easy on Rodgers as well. Lots of runs and mostly short quick passes. Let's keep him upright this game and let that knee heal.

I think the difference between the two is probably larger than 0.2%. Maybe this game is the blowout most suspect (though I'm not sure the Lions offense is an inept as the Bills) but if it's not then I think the best RB probably needs to be on the field more than one third of the game.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Rodgers might say a solid game plan would yield "600 yds".

I think TDs and not settling for FGs would satisfy most (including Rodgers).

 

[Dantés]

I can’t shake a bad feeling about this game. It’s hard for me to envision the Packers defense holding Detroit under 20 in their building. They have too much talent at receiver.

Normally that wouldn’t bother me at all, but Rodgers is still getting back from the knee, the passing game is sputtering a bit, and Adams, Cobb, and Allison could all be out.

I think those that have argued that DET’s passing defense is smoke and mirrors have made some great points. But I still like their chances at home if a less than 100% Rodgers is throwing to three rookies.

I hope they can commit to running the ball. It’s the best way to attack Detroit, and will likely help our defense as well.

 

[Mondio]

I think Graham and Adams will be available, but there’s been such little work with these guys together it’s hard to imagine the passing game just roaring to life anytime soon.

 

[OldSchool101]

We have a pretty good fallback with 3 Veteran TEs with over 1,150 combined career receptions. That’s not something many teams can boast.
Some of us are also forgetting we also have Ty Montgomery who is a seasoned veteran with an extensive knowledge of the Offensive playbook and can quickly adapt to receiver
(and a formidable WR at that). We don’t need him at RB as we have a capable duo already.

As far as Aaron being limited.. He is now 4 weeks removed from his knee injury, so he’s getting closer to losing the knee brace altogether. I wouldn’t underestimate what he can do at 95% capacity.

We have a wealth of experience with a Philbin and MM and we have been very successful in the past in getting inexperienced players ready. Ala our running game 2010.
Nobody wants injuries like this but it’s not like we’re crippled. I’ve been wanting to see more TE sets anyway, maybe I’ll finally get my wish!

 

[sschind]

Whether he carries the ball or blocks he is subject to injury. We are playing thee worst team in the NFL for stopping the run. I expect Williams to move the sticks just fine. Having Jones in will not help the Packers chances of winning. Unless it moves us from 98% to 98.2%. There is no reason to expose him to injury. Run Williams and if things are going south, then increase Jones workload. I hope they make things easy on Rodgers as well. Lots of runs and mostly short quick passes. Let's keep him upright this game and let that knee heal.

Why settle for just fine if you have something better? I just don't see the logic in keeping your best RB off the field just because you are playing the team with the worst run defense in the league. The thing is no matter what happens with the running game (Jones get more carries, Williams does or they get equal shares) we will never know what might have happened if it went some other way. I prefer to have the best guys on the field especially when your best guy may be able to exploit a real weakness in your opponents game..

 

[PackerDNA]

I can’t shake a bad feeling about this game. It’s hard for me to envision the Packers defense holding Detroit under 20 in their building. They have too much talent at receiver.

Normally that wouldn’t bother me at all, but Rodgers is still getting back from the knee, the passing game is sputtering a bit, and Adams, Cobb, and Allison could all be out.

I think those that have argued that DET’s passing defense is smoke and mirrors have made some great points. But I still like their chances at home if a less than 100% Rodgers is throwing to three rookies.

I hope they can commit to running the ball. It’s the best way to attack Detroit, and will likely help our defense as well.

I'm with you. I would not be surprised if we lost this game. The lions are a tough matchup for us at their place even if we were healthy.