Valdes-Scantling

[Do7]

just watched the highlights of Packers last season on YouTube. I cannot believe how many of the highlights in the first 5 or 6 weeks were MVS. It's mind-blowing how he completely disappeared after making so many impact plays early on. I'm hopeful he gets a fresh start whenever football returns and shows he belongs.

I REALLY want him to emerge as a star, like Adams did in his third year, but my faith in him is diminishing. My expectations for him this season is low, though I hope he proves me and every other doubter wrong.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

just watched the highlights of Packers last season on YouTube. I cannot believe how many of the highlights in the first 5 or 6 weeks were MVS. It's mind-blowing how he completely disappeared after making so many impact plays early on. I'm hopeful he gets a fresh start whenever football returns and shows he belongs.

I don't think there is a Packer fan that doesn't want him to excel next season. They just have to guard against relying on that happening. You are right, he showed hints of good things his rookie season, started out his 2019 campaign looking like he was improving and then the wheels came off. Maybe he was playing injured or distracted by an off the field situation, we may never know. He probably has at least one season to come out and prove he belongs, unless he just flat out gets beat by guys in training camp/preseason.

 

[Dantés]

just watched the highlights of Packers last season on YouTube. I cannot believe how many of the highlights in the first 5 or 6 weeks were MVS. It's mind-blowing how he completely disappeared after making so many impact plays early on. I'm hopeful he gets a fresh start whenever football returns and shows he belongs.

MVS accounted for 19 catches on 34 targets in the first six weeks last year, or a 56% catch rate. That's pretty bad. For reference, the 100th ranked NFL player in catch % last year was at 65%.

He got benched because he just wasn't reliable, as a receiver in key conversion opportunities, or as a run blocker. So it isn't mind blowing, as much as predictable.

I think all Packer fans hope he finds more consistency in 2020 so that his speed can be a consistent asset to the offense.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

MVS accounted for 19 catches on 34 targets in the first six weeks last year, or a 56% catch rate. That's pretty bad. For reference, the 100th ranked NFL player in catch % last year was at 65%.

He got benched because he just wasn't reliable, as a receiver in key conversion opportunities, or as a run blocker. So it isn't mind blowing, as much as predictable.

I think all Packer fans hope he finds more consistency in 2020 so that his speed can be a consistent asset to the offense.

Goes to show you that sometimes the "eye test" isn't always right, since I was convinced he had a pretty decent start to the 2019 season as well. In taking a closer look, I would have to correct the OP, on the 6 games and say the first 7 games. MVS's 7th game against Oakland was statistically pretty productive (2 catches 133 yds, 1 TD). What fools us is that in those 7 games he had 6 long plays (47, 40, 26, 46, 59 and 74 yds), so I think that is where many of would say he had a good start to the season. Unfortunately, after that, his longest catch was an 11 yarder in the season finale against Detroit and in 8 games he only had 5 catches on 19 targets.

I would be fine if he could have a lot of those big plays on a consistent basis, but the well dried up after the Oakland game. He also needs to become more than just a home run/boom or bust WR.

 

[superdan]

just out of curiosit, how many of those targets that did not get completed were considered high percentage passes vs how many were deep balls? Stats don't tell the whole story. Not arguing, just wondering if that data exists.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

just watched the highlights of Packers last season on YouTube. I cannot believe how many of the highlights in the first 5 or 6 weeks were MVS. It's mind-blowing how he completely disappeared after making so many impact plays early on. I'm hopeful he gets a fresh start whenever football returns and shows he belongs.

Unfortunately MVS is a one-trick pony solely capable of using his speed to get open. His route running is atrocious though which will most likely result in him not having a consistent impact moving forward.

just out of curiosit, how many of those targets that did not get completed were considered high percentage passes vs how many were deep balls? Stats don't tell the whole story. Not arguing, just wondering if that data exists.

MVS had the highest average depth of target of all Packers receivers last season at 16.8 yards. Rodgers targeted him 10+ yards downfield on 29 attempts (10 completions) and 20+ yards 19 times (5 completions).

That serves as evidence that he's primarily a deep threat that doesn't produce a whole lot in that area though.

 

[superdan]

I wonder what the average depth of target was for all the other guys? I'm assuming catch percentage drops steadily as the average target depth increases.

 

[Dantés]

I wonder what the average depth of target was for all the other guys? I'm assuming catch percentage drops steadily as the average target depth increases.

MVS had an average air yards per target of 16.6, which is huge. So that's certainly a piece of the puzzle. But on its own, that doesn't account for such a low catch %.

He is talented and has deep speed that, for now, is unique to the roster. In my opinion, he got benched because he was coming up small in conversion opportunities and wasn't getting it done as a run blocker, which really does matter to LaFleur.

He's super talented, and I would love to see it work for him. But there were good reasons why he saw the bench over the second half last year. It's up to him to respond.

 

[Dantés]

For reference, here is the top 10 in air yards per target, and their catch % on the season:

1. Mike Williams, LAC, 17.4, 54%
2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB, 16.6, 46%
3. Ted Ginn, NO, 16.1, 54%
4. Breshad Perriman, TB, 16.1, 52%
5. James Washington, PIT, 15.6, 55%
6. Kenny Golladay, DET, 15.4, 56%
7. Robby Anderson, NYJ, 15.3, 54%
8. Mike Evans, TB, 15.3, 57%
9. John Ross, CIN, 14.9, 50%
10. Stefon Diggs, MIN, 14.9, 67%

As you can see, MVS's catch % is significantly below the norm even for the NFL'd deep targets.

 

[superdan]

For reference, here is the top 10 in air yards per target, and their catch % on the season:

1. Mike Williams, LAC, 17.4, 54%
2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB, 16.6, 46%
3. Ted Ginn, NO, 16.1, 54%
4. Breshad Perriman, TB, 16.1, 52%
5. James Washington, PIT, 15.6, 55%
6. Kenny Golladay, DET, 15.4, 56%
7. Robby Anderson, NYJ, 15.3, 54%
8. Mike Evans, TB, 15.3, 57%
9. John Ross, CIN, 14.9, 50%
10. Stefon Diggs, MIN, 14.9, 67%

As you can see, MVS's catch % is significantly below the norm even for the NFL'd deep targets.

nice stats, thank you.

hopefully all this catch percentage talk is irrelevant otherwise our new guy doesn't look so good.

Between 2015 and 2018, only two receivers in the NFL with more than 300 total targets caught a lower percentage of those targets than the 51.8 percent Funchess caught with the Carolina Panthers.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I wonder what the average depth of target was for all the other guys? I'm assuming catch percentage drops steadily as the average target depth increases.

Here's a list for the Packers last season:

MVS 16.8
Kumerow 14.9
Lazard 14.6
Tonyan 12.4
Graham 10.3
Adams 10.2
Allison 8.4
Vitale 6.8
Lewis 5.9
Jones 2.4
Williams -0.6

He is talented and has deep speed that, for now, is unique to the roster. In my opinion, he got benched because he was coming up small in conversion opportunities and wasn't getting it done as a run blocker, which really does matter to LaFleur.

MVS struggles running the correct route which was definitely a reason for him being benched as well.

 

[gopkrs]

I think MVSs problem has been running a good route. He just does not seem quick so not good at faking. I imagine he is going where the plays calls for him to go.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think MVSs problem has been running a good route. I imagine he is going where the plays calls for him to go.

It would be a huge plus if MVS ran the designed route. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case way too often.

 

[gopkrs]

What I was trying to say was that it is hugely important how you get where you are going. And in a regular pattern (ie: not streaking down the field), he seems to have trouble shaking the defender. Just does not look smooth or tricky in his cuts. Can't imagine that he consistently is running in the wrong direction. Just don't think he gets open.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

What I was trying to say was that it is hugely important how you get where you are going. And in a regular pattern (ie: not streaking down the field), he seems to have trouble shaking the defender. Just does not look smooth or tricky in his cuts. Can't imagine that he consistently is running in the wrong direction. Just don't think he gets open.

It seems like MVS has significant troubles breaking his routes correctly. That has led to Rodgers and him not being on the same page way too often.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What I was trying to say was that it is hugely important how you get where you are going. And in a regular pattern (ie: not streaking down the field), he seems to have trouble shaking the defender. Just does not look smooth or tricky in his cuts. Can't imagine that he consistently is running in the wrong direction. Just don't think he gets open.

I would like to think MLF was just setting all the other NFL defenses up and lulling them into a false sense of security. We shall see the REAL MVS in 2020. Teams are going to sleep on him, thinking he is a one trick pony that can't run a good route and all of a sudden, he is going to pull out the whole can of whoop a&& on everyone.

I don't think MVS is dead in the water, nor do I think he is in as bad of a position as J'Mon Moore was in about this time last year, but he will need to show some good growth, or he may see his NFL career cut very short.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't think MVS is dead in the water, nor do I think he is in as bad of a position as J'Mon Moore was in about this time last year, but he will need to show some good growth, or he may see his NFL career cut very short.

Moore was able to get open. Unfortunately he couldn't catch a cold though.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Moore was able to get open. Unfortunately he couldn't catch a cold though.

Yup and neither are good problems to have. I think many of us thought Moore would work through the dropsies he was suffering, but seems he never did. I hope MVS was just having a hard time learning the new offense, can't be easy to come in as a rookie, learn MM's playbook for one year and then MLF's. Lazard seemed to pull it off, I hope MVS just needed some extra time.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

Yup and neither are good problems to have. I think many of us thought Moore would work through the dropsies he was suffering, but seems he never did. I hope MVS was just having a hard time learning the new offense, can't be easy to come in as a rookie, learn MM's playbook for one year and then MLF's. Lazard seemed to pull it off, I hope MVS just needed some extra time.

I'm hoping we can chalk MVS's second season as a sophomore slump coupled with coming off an injury. Season 3 is big for him, I'm rooting for him to rise to the occasion. Time will tell.

 

[HardRightEdge]

MVS accounted for 19 catches on 34 targets in the first six weeks last year, or a 56% catch rate. That's pretty bad.

It's actually not bad for a receiver that runs a lot of deep routes. Catch % and yards per catch are, generally speaking, inversely proportional. Without looking I can say with confidence the top 100 in catch percent is chock-o-block with RBs, TEs and slots who take a lot of short, high percentage throws without a high yards per catch percent.

To illustrate, here are the top 10 qualifying receivers in yards per catch last season and their catch rate. 6 games is odd cut off since week 7 was his best yardage game. I think week 7 had the long run on a short throw, but that's not to say some of these other guys didn't have one themselves. The wheels started coming off in week 8 & 9 (4 targets, 1 catch, 4 yards in two games) and his snaps started dropping off after week 9. Let's slice it 4 ways and fit him into the rankings.

1 Mike Williams LAC 20.4 ypc / 54.4%
2 A.J. Brown TEN 20.2 ypc / 61.9%
MVS first 7 games: 19.8 / 56.8%
MVS first 9 games: 19.1 / 53.7%
3 Kenny Golladay DET 18.3 ypc / 56.0%
4 Stefon Diggs MIN 17.9 ypc / 67.0%
5 Breshad Perriman TAM 17.9 ypc / 52.2%
MVS full season: 17.4% / 46.4%
6 Mike Evans* TAM 17.3 ypc / 56.8%
7 Michael Gallup DAL 16.8 ypc / 58.4%
8 DeVante Parker MIA 16.7 ypc / 56.3%
9 James Washington PIT 16.7 ypc / 55.0%
10 Chris Conley JAX 16.5 ypc / 52.2%
MVS first 6 games: 14.9 ypc / 55.9%

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's actually not bad for a receiver that runs a lot of deep routes. Catch % and yards per catch are, generally speaking, inversely proportional. Without looking I can say with confidence the top 100 in catch percent is chock-o-block with RBs, TEs and slots who take a lot of short, high percentage throws without a high yards per catch percent.

To illustrate, here are the top 10 qualifying receivers in yards per catch last season and their catch rate. 6 games is odd cut off since week 7 was his best yardage game. I think week 7 had the long run on a short throw, but that's not to say some of these other guys didn't have one themselves. The wheels started coming off in week 8 & 9 (4 targets, 1 catch, 4 yards in two games) and his snaps started dropping off after week 9. Let's slice it 4 ways and fit him into the rankings.

1 Mike Williams LAC 20.4 ypc / 54.4%
2 A.J. Brown TEN 20.2 ypc / 61.9%
MVS first 7 games: 19.8 / 56.8%
MVS first 9 games: 19.1 / 53.7%
3 Kenny Golladay DET 18.3 ypc / 56.0%
4 Stefon Diggs MIN 17.9 ypc / 67.0%
5 Breshad Perriman TAM 17.9 ypc / 52.2%
MVS full season: 17.4% / 46.4%
6 Mike Evans* TAM 17.3 ypc / 56.8%
7 Michael Gallup DAL 16.8 ypc / 58.4%
8 DeVante Parker MIA 16.7 ypc / 56.3%
9 James Washington PIT 16.7 ypc / 55.0%
10 Chris Conley JAX 16.5 ypc / 52.2%
MVS first 6 games: 14.9 ypc / 55.9%

Totally get your point, but all of the guys on this list had a lot more yards then MVS and most of them, with the exception of Perriman, Washington and Conley had 1000+ yard seasons.

So while it was nice that MVS had those 6 long plays (47, 40, 26, 46, 59 and 74 yds) in the first 7 games, that was pretty much it for him. He needs to have those plays and a lot more to be considered a productive WR. Maybe if he maintains his catch rate at what it was through 7 games, 56.8, he could be a very good weapon. But to end the season with a 46.4% rate, means you really stunk it up those last 9 games.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I would sum up the MVS tale of woe in 2019 as follows:

• Rodgers never trusted his route running. Willing to give chances early in the season as part of the development process, he presented too much risk in the run to the playoffs.

• The low points came where he sat down in a short zone seam when Rodgers was leading him with the throw ("Keep running!", INT risk) followed by running through the same route where Rodgers was throwing to the sit down (some expression of disgust, another INT risk). Then there was not running through on an extended play (another "Keep running!"). The evident conclusion is MVS struggled to read zone coverages and do what the QB expected. Is the QB wrong? You don't see this with Adams, Mr. Money on the short slant and one of the best come-backers on the scramble drill.

• 15+ yard competitive sideline throws without coming down with the ball or getting feet down. This is admittedly a small sample size, and in each case you can probably point to something exonerating the receiver--a slight underthow, a CB bumping an elbow or hand, a tough 2-feet-down leading throw. The problem isn't that all these catches should be made. It's a matter of not winning enough on a tough catch.

The guy has all the physical tools. He's just not a very good football player right now, lacking in the execution details that make all the difference and, I fear, a knucklehead. I'm not a believer in 3rd. year jumps when a guy is stuck or going backwards (along with his snaps)--MVS, Burks, Jackson. I would be quite happy to be proven wrong with any outlier.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Totally get your point, but all of the guys on this list had a lot more yards then MVS and most of them, with the exception of Perriman, Washington and Conley had 1000+ yard seasons.

So while it was nice that MVS had those 6 long plays (47, 40, 26, 46, 59 and 74 yds) in the first 7 games, that was pretty much it for him. He needs to have those plays and a lot more to be considered a productive WR. Maybe if he maintains his catch rate at what it was through 7 games, 56.8, he could be a very good weapon. But to end the season with a 46.4% rate, means you really stunk it up those last 9 games.

I don't disagree. I was merely illustrating the reality of YPC and catch % being inversely correlated.

Through 7 games, MVS was on pace for 48 catchs / 951 yds. / 19.8 ypc / 56.7%, right in there with the 1,000 yard guys. What went wrong? See the post above.

 

[Dantés]

Totally get your point, but all of the guys on this list had a lot more yards then MVS and most of them, with the exception of Perriman, Washington and Conley had 1000+ yard seasons.

So while it was nice that MVS had those 6 long plays (47, 40, 26, 46, 59 and 74 yds) in the first 7 games, that was pretty much it for him. He needs to have those plays and a lot more to be considered a productive WR. Maybe if he maintains his catch rate at what it was through 7 games, 56.8, he could be a very good weapon. But to end the season with a 46.4% rate, means you really stunk it up those last 9 games.

His playing time was largely a victim of our absolutely terrible 3rd down conversion rate to start the season. The Packers offense was all feast or famine there for a while. And when they tried to use MVS as a weapon for conversion, he came up small. Hopefully he can develop into a little bit more complete a player.

 

[HardRightEdge]

His playing time was largely a victim of our absolutely terrible 3rd down conversion rate to start the season. The Packers offense was all feast or famine there for a while. And when they tried to use MVS as a weapon for conversion, he came up small.

In the first 9 weeks before MVS's snaps started dropping off the Packers were 39/107, 36.4% on 3rd. down conversions vs. 37.6% for the entire season. However, weeks 1 and 2 saw 8 of 30 conversions in a new offense against two good defensive teams. Weeks 3 - 9 saw a 40.3% conversion rate. None of these numbers are very good, hovering around the league average, with or without MVS.

In those first 9 weeks, MVS was thrown to 14 times on 3rd. down.

On short passes, as defined by pro-football-reference.com as 14 yards or less, MVS was 7 of 9 with 4 first downs, a 44.4% conversion rate, a respectable number, on par with Rodgers' 43.8% 3rd. down coversion rate on those throws.

On long passes defined as 15+ yards, it was 1 of 5 with one 1st. down. He was one completion shy of coming up to Rodgers 38% conversion rate on 15+ yard passes for the season.

All in all, he was one 15+ yard catch shy of the team average and respectability before being mostly benched even if as you say he didn't "come up big".

As it turned out Lazard, was very good on 3rd. down, for the season 13 of 19, 12 first downs, 63.2% coversion rate. It wasn't a case of MVS being a bad 3rd. down receiver as it was finding a more trustworthy option which more than anything distills down to better route running and competing at the ball, regardless of down.

At this point you'd pencil MVS in for a roster spot, but how deep in the depth chart is a whole other question. Who gets drafted and camp/preseason competition (if these things happen) could alter the picture.