Trade Theory

[Heyjoe4]

That Raiders OL is very suspect, Even more so than ours, but having some elite receivers should help.
Interesting listed on the Raiders depth chart early last year was Keisean Nixon, Rasul Douglas and Dallin Leavitt as their depth at CB and Safety. We even got their Head Coach (ok it’s a technicality there)

That's interesting. I had no idea Douglas came from LV, or Leavitt. Well if their OL is weak then the passing game gets limited to short(er) passes. I hope that doesn't afflict the Packers' OL. I'm aware Bakh and Jenkins may not play in Minnesota, but still thought there were some strong players.

 

[Schultz]

Eh I think they'll probably make it to the playoffs personally, but I also feel that was a good team before he arrived and he is one of the only WRs that have left at a time in their career I felt they would do well elsewhere. Cobb actually mildly proved me wrong as he saw success in Dallas for sure and when healthy is still showcasing that he is 40-50 yard per game type producing guy.

I think it will be tough for LV to make the playoffs. That is 6 very tough divisional games.

 

[Poppa San]

I think it will be tough for LV to make the playoffs. That is 6 very tough divisional games.

All division games are tough for all teams. The Lions and Vikings are not pushovers in their matchups. The Bears though I'll grant they've been Brett's and Aaron's personal beeches the past 30 seasons. The division may play soft to the rest of the league but the intra-division games are the epitome of any given Sunday.

 

[Schultz]

The AFC West is by far the best division in Football. There are tough divisional games and their are Tough divisional games and then their are TOUGH divisional games and finally their are TOUGH Divisional GAMES.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

The AFC West is by far the best division in Football. There are tough divisional games and their are Tough divisional games and then their are TOUGH divisional games and finally their are TOUGH Divisional GAMES.

Agreed. I hope no one is trying to compare the Packers divisional games vs. the gauntlet of the AFC West.

 

[PikeBadger]

I was going to say this wasn't the case...but saw you put 2008 limit on it and also said Watkins doesn't count. I get the 2008 but the Watkins is just morphing to fit a narrative. I also crack up when folks whine and complain about no 1st round WRs. We've had some insanely good WRs in this time frame that played as good or better than a TON of round 1 guys; Nelson, Jennings, Cobb, Jones, Adams...just to name the best 5.

Round 1 WR's come at the expense of other more positions on the roster that are more important. The best WR on the planet is not going to catch the ball an average of 10 times a game. Having a very sturdy o-line and d-line is far more important than having a Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss or Jerry Rice.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Round 1 WR's come at the expense of other more positions on the roster that are more important. The best WR on the planet is not going to catch the ball an average of 10 times a game. Having a very sturdy o-line and d-line is far more important than having a Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss or Jerry Rice.

I think that's true and probably a good guide to drafting. Unless there is an insanely gifted WR in the first round, and maybe even then, it's best to take a stud lineman, offense or defense, and save a pick on a WR for the 2nd round or later. The linemen are involved and making an impact on every play. Not necessarily so for a WR.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Agreed. I hope no one is trying to compare the Packers divisional games vs. the gauntlet of the AFC West.

Not even close. All of the teams in the AFC West would do well to split with each other. The Packers should win 5 or all 6 of their in-conference games. In most power rankings, the Packers are top 5 and the closest conference rival, usually Minnesota, is around 20th.

It reminds me of all those years the Patriots were always winning the AFC East. It was a notoriously bad conference. That's changed now, but for years and years it was an almost guaranteed 6 wins for the Pats.

 

[Poppa San]

It reminds me of all those years the Patriots were always winning the AFC East. It was a notoriously bad conference. That's changed now, but for years and years it was an almost guaranteed 6 wins for the Pats.

One would think that but since the 2000 season the Patriots swept their division just twice, 2007 and 2012. They typically split with the Dolphins more often than not. Many seasons losing to the Jets also.

 

[Heyjoe4]

One would think that but since the 2000 season the Patriots swept their division just twice, 2007 and 2012. They typically split with the Dolphins more often than not. Many seasons losing to the Jets also.

Wow that's interesting, thanks. I would have thought that number to be 4 or 5 at least. Splitting with the Dolphins and Jets, of all teams. Now the Dolphins are playing better. The Jets seemed to be permanently mired in the bottom. Anyway, those are interesting numbers.

 

[PikeBadger]

The AFC West is by far the best division in Football. There are tough divisional games and their are Tough divisional games and then their are TOUGH divisional games and finally their are TOUGH Divisional GAMES.

Paper tigers until live bullets are fired. We'll see. The AFC West teams have some suspect offensive and defensive lines. Lots of talk about how good the raiders can be. I could see them finishing 6-11. I think the Chiefs are going to regress some. I see Denver coming on strong in the back half of the season and losing to Baltimore in the AFC championship game.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Paper tigers until live bullets are fired. We'll see. The AFC West teams have some suspect offensive and defensive lines. Lots of talk about how good the raiders can be. I could see them finishing 6-11. I think the Chiefs are going to regress some. I see Denver coming on strong in the back half of the season and losing to Baltimore in the AFC championship game.

Very interesting AFC prediction. What about the Bills? They seem to be stuck, much like the Packers, with going dark when the playofff lights shine.

I do agree KC will regress. The Raiders are the Raiders and I don't see them winning more than 9 or 10 games. But aside from the West, it's hard not to like the Bills.

 

[PikeBadger]

Very interesting AFC prediction. What about the Bills? They seem to be stuck, much like the Packers, with going dark when the playofff lights shine.

I do agree KC will regress. The Raiders are the Raiders and I don't see them winning more than 9 or 10 games. But aside from the West, it's hard not to like the Bills.

Buffalo is a very good team. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won the Super Bowl. My suspicion is they well start very well and flatten out. I just see Baltimore and Denver coming on strong late in the season

 

[Heyjoe4]

Buffalo is a very good team. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won the Super Bowl. My suspicion is they well start very well and flatten out. I just see Baltimore and Denver coming on strong late in the season

I can see Baltimore coming on and competing for the SB. Denver was becoming a pretty good team by the end of last season, and will only be better with Wilson. Put it this way, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens back in the SB.

As for the NFC, SI has the Bucs beating the Packers in the NFCCG, again....... We'll see. I don't think the Bucs are as strong as recent seasons. The Packers are certainly in the hunt for a SB appearance. A lot depends on 1) the D living up to expectations, 2) two WRs emerging as legit #1 and #2 players and 3) STs not giving anything away. Seems obvious but that's the formula, I think.

 

[Schultz]

Paper tigers until live bullets are fired. We'll see. The AFC West teams have some suspect offensive and defensive lines. Lots of talk about how good the raiders can be. I could see them finishing 6-11. I think the Chiefs are going to regress some. I see Denver coming on strong in the back half of the season and losing to Baltimore in the AFC championship game.

I hope I get a new crystal ball for Christmas. Mine does not see any of those things happening.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I hope I get a new crystal ball for Christmas. Mine does not see any of those things happening.

I think the Ravens can compete, but probably not farther than the AFCCG, and that's if they stay healthy and things fall their way. The consensus in the NFC seems to be the Packers and the Bucs. That I can see. But if that's the matchup in the NFCCG, again...... Well, I can't take losing another NFCCG and a second to Brady. SB or bust.

 

[OldSchool101]

The AFC West is by far the best division in Football. There are tough divisional games and their are Tough divisional games and then their are TOUGH divisional games and finally their are TOUGH Divisional GAMES.

When you are looking around at the Trades that happened? obviously Davante is at the forefront of the headlines.
Yet Russel Wilson going to Denver is very formidable and I'm sure glad he didnt come to the NFC North for 6 seasons.
Denver had a #3 ranked Defense last season, now they basically spent their draft picks shoring up the Run Defense with Uwazurike and Bonitto, as it was really the only notable area of concern (15th ranked Rush Defense) Denver stands to compete as one of the best Defenses in this league, again. They are now built very similar to the Packers and that does not bode well for the Raiders. That Division has some really good QB play there and the only definitive weakness is the Chargers Defense. Obviously, we need not mention what KC can do to present problems, so the Raiders have their hands full there and I predict the Raiders go 3-3 in their Division, which does not leave them much room to lose elsewhere. The Raiders start out early against Arizona and @Tennesse at best they split those 2 contests. Later in the season they go on the road @Saints @Rams and play at home against the 49ers and Patriots. They'd better win everything else because that's a toughy.
The NFC North looks pretty good about now

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Damn I could've sworn Nelson was hurt on artificial turf. I also recall, I hope correctly, that he wasn't touched on the play. I think he jumped for a pass that fell incomplete, looked to land normally, walked off the field normally, and then we got word he tore his ACL.

Nelson actually caught that ball but was hurt without being touched.

It’s not hard to figure out. The total number of FA, Trade or Drafted WR from Round 1 = 0. Javon Walker was the last WR to be selected in Day 1 that played for GBP through Trade or Draft.

Actually that's not true as Koren Robinson and Tavon Austin played for the Packers as well. Although neither of them had a significant impact.

In addition you need to consider that the Packers have spent more second rounders on wide receivers than any other team in the league since 2003 with a total of six though.

The fact the Day 2 WR guys did so well was as much a testament to Coaching, GM projection/drafting, OL quality and QB play. GBP have done far more with far less than any team in this league at WR (your repeated contention is WR somehow are a singular product of their production) That isn’t just a testament to WR back then, it’s a testament to what’s about to happen in 2022 and beyond.

While I agree the factors you mentioned need to be considered there's absolutely no doubt Adams, Cobb, Jennings and Nelson were already talented players in the first place once they got drafted.

This whole 2015 WR “scare” business? Every last team in the NFL has peaks and valleys. This Staff decided to go Defense and it doesn’t need the 2011 Juggernaut Offense to Win because it didn’t work! Talk about getting embarrassed by the Giants
It needs the 2010 Defense and a methodical Bradyish type Offense that is consistent and runs effectively in January. (Which is the reasoning for near 20 years of D selections)

I agree the Packers might be able to win games this season relying far more on their defense than in past seasons. My point is that it's realistic to expect the offense to regress without a legit #1 receiver though.

I never disagreed with that. It was the whole point I was making. The production came even though we did NOT throw heavy resources at that position group.

We know from players at WR leaving GB never pulled a Casey Hayward move. The environment at GB was the catalyst for their notable success (now watch Davante put up 1800 yards..NOT!).

That's not a fair comparison as none of the receivers that should be considered left the Packers in the prime.

Wow that's interesting, thanks. I would have thought that number to be 4 or 5 at least. Splitting with the Dolphins and Jets, of all teams. Now the Dolphins are playing better. The Jets seemed to be permanently mired in the bottom. Anyway, those are interesting numbers.

While the Jets have been abysmal over the past few years you need to realize they made it to two consecutive AFCCG in 2009 and '10.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Nelson actually caught that ball but was hurt without being touched.



Actually that's not true as Koren Robinson and Tavon Austin played for the Packers as well. Although neither of them had a significant impact.

In addition you need to consider that the Packers have spent more second rounders on wide receivers than any other team in the league since 2003 with a total of six though.



While I agree the factors you mentioned need to be considered there's absolutely no doubt Adams, Cobb, Jennings and Nelson were already talented players in the first place once they got drafted.




I agree the Packers might be able to win games this season relying far more on their defense than in past seasons. My point is that it's realistic to expect the offense to regress without a legit #1 receiver though.



That's not a fair comparison as none of the receivers that should be considered left the Packers in the prime.



While the Jets have been abysmal over the past few years you need to realize they made it to two consecutive AFCCG in 2009 and '10.

That's a wild bit of history on the Jets. For whatever reason, I do not remember them getting as far as the AFCCG in 2009 and 2010. I guess it's just proof that we usually forget about the teams that lose. Even with SBs, I'll remember the winners and forget who lost. Well with the exception of the Packer wins.

 

[tynimiller]

Love that Captain pointed out something so many forget - our investment at high prospect WRs in round two since 2003 is unrivaled.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Love that Captain pointed out something so many forget - our investment at high prospect WRs in round two since 2003 is unrivaled.

Agreed and that's why the insistence by some for taking a WR in round 1 is misplaced. For whatever reason, there just aren't a lot of WRs taken in round 1 who become impact players their first year. I don't have any stats to back this up, but just think it's better to look for other position players in round 1 - CB, DL, OL to name a few. Seems like the payoff comes sooner. It's just damn hard to go from college to the NFL, regardless of draft position.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That's a wild bit of history on the Jets. For whatever reason, I do not remember them getting as far as the AFCCG in 2009 and 2010.

It's pretty easy to forget about it as the Jets haven't made the playoffs since.

Agreed and that's why the insistence by some for taking a WR in round 1 is misplaced. For whatever reason, there just aren't a lot of WRs taken in round 1 who become impact players their first year.

While there aren't any guarantees that a receiver being selected in the first round ends up having an immediate impact there have been quite a few over the past few seasons.

Take a look at the numbers since 2018 here: https://stathead.com/tiny/glxzB

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's pretty easy to forget about it as the Jets haven't made the playoffs since.



While there aren't any guarantees that a receiver being selected in the first round ends up having an immediate impact there have been quite a few over the past few seasons.

Take a look at the numbers since 2018 here: https://stathead.com/tiny/glxzB

Thanks for sending that list, interesting. It looks like there are five rookies from last year on that list in the top 15, most notable being the leader Ja'Marr Chase.

Funny I don't see Tee Higgins. He's a guy some fans have argued should have been taken instead of Love. I don't recall where he went. I'm just surprised he's not on the list.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Thanks for sending that list, interesting. It looks like there are five rookies from last year on that list in the top 15, most notable being the leader Ja'Marr Chase.

That's not a top 15 list but contains every wide receiver drafted in the first round since 2018.

Funny I don't see Tee Higgins. He's a guy some fans have argued should have been taken instead of Love. I don't recall where he went. I'm just surprised he's not on the list.

Higgins was selected with the first pick of the second round back in 2020. Therefore he's not on the list.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's not a top 15 list but contains every wide receiver drafted in the first round since 2018.



Higgins was selected with the first pick of the second round back in 2020. Therefore he's not on the list.

Thanks for the updates. Good chart w/ good information.

It's bittersweet, though. It seemed like when the Packers drafted in the last few years, the top receivers were gone. Even so, IMO the current situation with the WR group could have been avoided - either through the draft or FA with better personnel decisions the last few years. It seemed like the assumption was Rodgers would fix everything. Even the year MVS was selected all the WRs taken were in later rounds. All day 3 I think. I might be wrong. It may not have been possible. Even so.......