Three Positions Gute Has To Target EARLY in 2025 Draft

[tynimiller]

Serial underachievement is also a pattern you know...I'm not naive. I know its not easy.
But that's the very nature of competitive sport! Nobody gives you anything..
One cannot persist with the rinse and repeat and then expect to be be commended for standing still..

The only thing Gute hasn’t hit massively well is high draft picks and in truth injury has taken a lot of his top picks which no one can predict….but timing in FA and moving on from guys has been dynamite decision making. If he has an offseason in FA like he did last time he had some money and last year (McKinney and Jacobs) plus doubles up with a draft success like last year he’s done about all you can ask from a GM to do in their time.

You do realize truths can exist and still demand better, that’s precisely how Gute feels no doubt and 31 other GMs today (including Philly).

 

[Magooch]

It is kind of wild though when you break some of it down.
Like consider their cap distribution. Look at the Eagles offense...
Jalen Hurts is paid like a top 10 QB.
Saquon is the 3rd-highest paid RB in the league, and I believe 2nd most guaranteed money.
AJ Brown is the 3rd-highest paid WR, and Devonta Smith is just outside the top 10, I think he is #11.
Mailata #5 LT
D i ckerson #1 LG
Johnson #4 RT

But on the other side of the ball they have the 8th LEAST cap space going to their defense. And yet I think most everyone would agree...it was largely their defense that won them the title.

And look at a lot of the key contributors over there.
Leading tackler was Zack Baun, he has been HUGE for them. But was a completely unheralded FA signing, like 3m for the year. Zero fanfare and has been absolutely pivotal.
Nakobe Dean, 24. Reed Blankenship, 25 (UFA) DeJean, 21. Quinyon Mitchell, 23. Jalen Carter, 23. Nolan Smith, 23. Jordan Davis, 24. Gardner-Johnson, FA.
Just about every key contributor was either a "hit" on a draft pick or a "value" FA signing, with few exceptions... That's not to say it's just that they were lucky but I would say to have that kind of sustained "hit rate" over time is also exceedingly unlikely. Either that, or the Eagles scouting department is truly the best ever, lol...

 

[tynimiller]

It is kind of wild though when you break some of it down.
Like consider their cap distribution. Look at the Eagles offense...
Jalen Hurts is paid like a top 10 QB.
Saquon is the 3rd-highest paid RB in the league, and I believe 2nd most guaranteed money.
AJ Brown is the 3rd-highest paid WR, and Devonta Smith is just outside the top 10, I think he is #11.
Mailata #5 LT
D i ckerson #1 LG
Johnson #4 RT

But on the other side of the ball they have the 8th LEAST cap space going to their defense. And yet I think most everyone would agree...it was largely their defense that won them the title.

And look at a lot of the key contributors over there.
Leading tackler was Zack Baun, he has been HUGE for them. But was a completely unheralded FA signing, like 3m for the year. Zero fanfare and has been absolutely pivotal.
Nakobe Dean, 24. Reed Blankenship, 25 (UFA) DeJean, 21. Quinyon Mitchell, 23. Jalen Carter, 23. Nolan Smith, 23. Jordan Davis, 24. Gardner-Johnson, FA.
Just about every key contributor was either a "hit" on a draft pick or a "value" FA signing, with few exceptions... That's not to say it's just that they were lucky but I would say to have that kind of sustained "hit rate" over time is also exceedingly unlikely. Either that, or the Eagles scouting department is truly the best ever, lol...

The lower tier FA signings are insane as well...I'm telling you, they hit on EVERY decision.

 

[txj]

It is kind of wild though when you break some of it down.
Like consider their cap distribution. Look at the Eagles offense...
Jalen Hurts is paid like a top 10 QB.
Saquon is the 3rd-highest paid RB in the league, and I believe 2nd most guaranteed money.
AJ Brown is the 3rd-highest paid WR, and Devonta Smith is just outside the top 10, I think he is #11.
Mailata #5 LT
D i ckerson #1 LG
Johnson #4 RT

But on the other side of the ball they have the 8th LEAST cap space going to their defense. And yet I think most everyone would agree...it was largely their defense that won them the title.

And look at a lot of the key contributors over there.
Leading tackler was Zack Baun, he has been HUGE for them. But was a completely unheralded FA signing, like 3m for the year. Zero fanfare and has been absolutely pivotal.
Nakobe Dean, 24. Reed Blankenship, 25 (UFA) DeJean, 21. Quinyon Mitchell, 23. Jalen Carter, 23. Nolan Smith, 23. Jordan Davis, 24. Gardner-Johnson, FA.
Just about every key contributor was either a "hit" on a draft pick or a "value" FA signing, with few exceptions... That's not to say it's just that they were lucky but I would say to have that kind of sustained "hit rate" over time is also exceedingly unlikely. Either that, or the Eagles scouting department is truly the best ever, lol...

This is why I'm not buying the "lucky hit" description. They've done it now over 4 seasons. If its luck then Gute is unlucky. And that is a damning verdict!

 

[tynimiller]

This is why I'm not buying the "lucky hit" description. They've done it now over 4 seasons. If its luck then Gute is unlucky. And that is a damning verdict!

LOL....yet for more than 60 years teams have not somehow hit as much as Howie did in the four year stretch...and to be fair the FA signings many of us highlighted were just this past year. Over the four year stretch they had a few misses on some lower tier FAs, but still the short stretch of time highlighted intensifies how much of a tear Howie and the Eagles have been on because it just hasn't happened much at all in my lifetime and before.

 

[txj]

LOL....yet for more than 60 years teams have not somehow hit as much as Howie did in the four year stretch...and to be fair the FA signings many of us highlighted were just this past year. Over the four year stretch they had a few misses on some lower tier FAs, but still the short stretch of time highlighted intensifies how much of a tear Howie and the Eagles have been on because it just hasn't happened much at all in my lifetime and before.

Which means he's got it right where others have failed. And he has SB appearances to show for it.
What I find hilarious about your position is the automatic assumption that it is mere luck, simply because, as you claim, its not been done before...

 

[tynimiller]

Which means he's got it right where others have failed. And he has SB appearances to show for it.
What I find hilarious about your position is the automatic assumption that it is mere luck, simply because, as you claim, its not been done before...

LOL nope negative. I've outlined how it all cannot be luck. You simply choose not to see it.

You stated due to it being constant for four years it isn't luck...so which is it...what he's done in four years (which reminder he's not been president forever, but been around since 2000 in some capacity) is a statistical anomaly and any statistical analyst will expect a return to more normal range of results occurs.

 

[txj]

LOL nope negative. I've outlined how it all cannot be luck. You simply choose not to see it.

You stated due to it being constant for four years it isn't luck...so which is it...what he's done in four years (which reminder he's not been president forever, but been around since 2000 in some capacity) is a statistical anomaly and any statistical analyst will expect a return to more normal range of results occurs.

LOL. A statistical anomaly, otherwise called luck!!!

 

[tynimiller]

As far as the draft, the irony is Howie has done a LOT of what Gute does...they both are addicted to Georgia defensive athletic freaks... @txj this and Gute's high success rate in FA is actually two of the biggest reasons I really think the next two/three seasons might be special.

Green Bay - Stokes, Walker, Wyatt, Bullard all top 60 picks from Georgia last four years.
Philly - Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith (Nolan is the only guy Gute could have drafted and didn't)

Both have strong propensity to draft OL early within the first two rounds of the draft:

Green Bay - Myers, Morgan (1 start rookie year)
Philly - ****erson, Jurgens (no starts rookie year)

Both believe in trenches are focus 5th round one...last four years:
GB - 7 guys drafted one of which is a starting LT and another is Karl Brooks, and also TJ Slaton who tore it up this season.
PHI - 7 guys drafted one of which is Tuipulotu

 

[tynimiller]

LOL. A statistical anomaly, otherwise called luck!!!

Negative, every statistical anomaly or happenings is the result of a lot of ingredients for lack of a better term.

 

[gopkrs]

I realize I'm probably going against the grain. But if there is a top notched center available in the first; I would not at all be bummed if we picked him. I don't think the future is Myers and the way Jenkins has been playing, I'm not betting the farm on him either. I don't hold it against him when he had bad hikes in the rain with zero practice. At least not too much, but instead of getting better at L guard; he has not been as good. Maybe a really good center could help him out. Actually could help on both sides.

 

[tynimiller]

I realize I'm probably going against the grain. But if there is a top notched center available in the first; I would not at all be bummed if we picked him. I don't think the future is Myers and the way Jenkins has been playing, I'm not betting the farm on him either. I don't hold it against him when he had bad hikes in the rain with zero practice. At least not too much, but instead of getting better at L guard; he has not been as good. Maybe a really good center could help him out. Actually could help on both sides.

I just don’t see personally a high graded out center. Now some say that is where Grey Zabel from NDST ends up playing his best NFL level ball at, but besides that there really isn’t any like we’ve had in previous drafts.

Wilson (Georgia) or McLaughlin (Ohio State) seem to be most people’s favorite true centers but I haven’t seen any buzz for them much even more than a late second rounder.

I really love the idea of Willie Lumpkin going center, that dude is insanely short but no one could move him at Senior Bowl and his movement skills I suspect are going to be awesome. Not a true center but I think he could be special there maybe.

Jake Majors from Texas is the kid I want and I’d even consider in the third cuz I think he is as good as Myers is by end of his rookie year maybe early if he soaks all in quickly.

I still though feel our best bet is Jenkins to center and Morgan goes LG or LT and I’d love to see us draft a stud OT that could compete against Rhyan and maybe push him out

 

[Wraith09]

So with a quarter of the 2024 season having come and left....the earliest (still premature) directional growth or stagnation (or death...) are becoming visible.

First, let's not even use Corner as one of these three...everyone with half a football brain cell knows it - barring a massive change down the stretch by say a King coming in or Stokes waking up or Nixon doing something...my money is ******* CB in the first round of the 2025 draft.

Cornerback - I would argue that 2025 the need for cornerback will be as high as it arguably has been since maybe a decade ago. Unlike last year where we had a promising Valentine, a hopefully healthy and coming back Stokes, an energized Jaire and for some reason a team hopeful Nixon is good......2025 unless something big turns around we won't have Stokes as part of the discussion (he isn't playing good enough for more than a one year deal that is CHEAP), Nixon has time and time again been the weak link team's target and Jaire for another year cannot stay healthy. Yes, Jaire is really really good typically when he is healthy - worst case he is a clear starting CB anywhere (whether a teams' CB1 or CB2). But truthfully after that Valentine is the clear next best and everyone knows I love the kid but still we have to have more.

BUT here are three positions I think folks may not like to hear we need to target but we really should in the first two days of the 2025 draft...

Defensive Line...I understood why we passed on some guys I really liked in 2024 along the trenches...Wooden and Brooks both showed promise as rookies, Slaton played amazing in 2023 with more snaps and Wyatt was finally starting to come into his own....however resting on our laurels and expecting Kenny to continue to play at elite or just below level simply isn't happening. Slaton has not played up to a new contract offer IMO, especially because Brooks and Wooden in limited snaps appear to be ready for a more action (Brooks especially) and Wyatt is finally coming into his own. HOWEVER, also a big piece is folks Kenny Clarke is starting to slow....yes he is incredibly young still really chronologically but 2025 would be his tenth season folks, that body has seen a lot of NFL snaps. Getting a high level (first or second round type) guy that can be an absolute wrecking ball in the middle and force this team to ask if Clark is still the best there would instantly make this team better across ALL aspects of the defense. We have the pressure guys that seem special at that in Wyatt and Brooks along the inside...get me a high level run and pass type player like Clark has been for so long (until this year).
Some of my favorite early interior DL prospects - Mason Graham - Michigan, Tyleik Williams - Ohio State, TJ Sanders - South Carolina, Dontay Corleone - Cincy, Kenneth Grant - Michigan

Off Ball Linebacker...Most know this is also a need like CB but we also know positional value isn't there for here BUT we have McDuffie in a contract year...we have Eric Wilson in a contract year (yes logic says one or both may be cheap resigns) BUT this team needs to push the gas pedal and find the future pairing with Cooper who is the future. Quay has another year, 2025, to possibly play himself into a role for the future but this cannot be banked on as he simply has laid down three years that say good but not great off ball linebacker...that literally leaves us essentially with Cooper and guys we want around for depth. Now I think we should strive to get Evan Williams and Javon Bullard both in more with X - and one way to do this is play Evan more in that hybrid box/safety role he's done a lot in college, but we NEED a off ball linebacker and I'd love to see Gute do the ole' one early and one late plan of attack here like he's done on some positions before.
Some of my favorite off ball backers right now that may need a top 100 pick - Jamon Dumas-Johnson - Kentucky, Danny Stutsman - Oklahoma, Lander Barton - Utah, Harold Perkins - LSU (dude is an all over chess piece), Barrett Carter - Clemson

Tight End - Musgrave at most is only ever going to be a receiving option...when he is in every team knows its' a key or tendency that he is NOT going to be asked to be a lead blocker unless GB wants to fail. Sims is a TE3 at most. Getting another high level TE wouldn't just push this position forward, it also acts as a buffer to the influx that is bound to hit the WR room at some point in the coming years - stabilizing this position with a TE option now defends against WR issues possibly having a rippling effect.
Some of my favorite Tight Ends to compliment Kraft that for sure deserve a top 100 pick - Colston Loveland - Michigan, Oronde Gadsden - Syracuse (little bit of a Musgrave 2.0 type), Harold Fannin - Bowling Green, Mitchell Evans - Notre Dame.

I like Tyleik Williams and Derrick Harmon for the Pack in round one. At off-ball linebacker, I like several players including Jihaad Campbell, Demetrius Knight Jr., Chris Paul, Cody Simon, Jalen McLeod and Teddye Buchanan. I think after drafting two tight ends and only getting one who can stay on the field, the Packers should want to field two tight ends on the same play, but maybe it’s their buckshot approach to drafting which I wouldn’t be critical of if they could find starters who are effective at their position. Aside from Tyler Warren, I don’t have another tight end I like. However, C.J. Dipper from Alabama might be a seventh rounder to look at. I don’t think this class of corners has a Jaire Alexander amongst them. Jahdae Barron is probably the closest to what the Packers like in their DBs in terms of playing ability and run defense. Given the strengths of this draft class and the Packers intention to run a four man front, I would concentrate their picks on changing their front to younger players who have demonstrated in college that they can collapse the pocket and pressure the QB. The Packers don’t have players with the ability to collapse the pocket week in and week out. They don’t have the speed or power or technical skill. That’s why they’ve changed DCs. If they could manage to move down in the first and/or move down to the top of the second, they might be able to revamp that front four. One of those top DTs could drop into the top of the second round. Rebuilding the D-Line could help out on the back end, as well as adding linebackers who can cover and blitz.

 

[Wraith09]

The thing for me is that IMO it's not just "hit rate" but a big difference in philosophy in how Philly has been aggressive in attacking their assessed needs. In some ways it comes back to the old debate between drafting for need vs BPA/"value".
Philly needed to upgrade their WR room...so they went out and traded a first and a third to move up just two spots in the 1st to draft Devonta Smith....and then turned around and traded a first and third to bring in AJ Brown. Needed a RB, and went out and gave Saquon a top-of-the-market rate in free agency. Needed to revamp their secondary...drafted CB in the first AND traded up to be able to draft their desired CB in the second.
Of course that is not the only way to succeed but I don't think you are EVER going to see that kind of aggression out of the current administration here...Spending a first on a WR then trading a first for another is probably the kind of thing that wakes Gute up in the middle of the night sweating buckets …

I agree. To me it looks like the Packers imitating the “Moneyball” scouts who look into their crystal ball of developing perceived potential instead of looking at actual production and objective analysis of a players abilities. What does it say about a coaching staff that can’t develop players they have a say in drafting, assuming that’s the case. With free agency, compensatory picks, trades and salary caps, I would think a GM could come up with a more varied approach to building a team. The Packers seem to put too many restrictions on the positions they are willing to draft in the first round and the quality of player they draft.

 

[tynimiller]

Those of you claiming Gute ignores production at the cost of athletic traits have not looked up the production of his picks...or have incredibly different perspective on what is considered production than most folks (which FTR is perfectly fine)