The Khalil Mack thread -- now a Bear for $155million

[OldSchool101]

In the debate over two first round picks or Mack , I would think it comes down to what does one subscribe to; a bird in the hand, or two in the bush?

If you combine those 2-1st rounders for a top 10 pick..
that’s like Big Bird in a small bush

 

[SD Cheesehead]

My first step is I go to Rodgers and see what he thinks. Does he want Mack? How much does he want Mack? Would he be willing to help out a little bit on his contract to help get him here? Getting Rodgers done and then letting someone like Kendricks go would probably be enough to get Mack in here for next year and then our cap opens up to pay him the real money for a couple years after that along with Rodgers. I would love to be able to get him in here to play opposite of Perry and have Clay roaming the middle with Martinez! Oh the possibilities! With that said.......paying a defensive player around 25 million a year is ridiculous and really limits future moves with Rodgers already demanding huge money. Using the two first round picks next year is a much more safe option hoping to hit on some cheap talent for a few years and using that 25 million a year on a couple of very good free agents every year. Much safer but if GUTE pulls the trigger then IN GUTE I TRUST!

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I'm a little late on this thread but at first because I wasn't buying into the hype but now I'm all on board.

I think our two 1sts for 2019 or a 1st in 2019 and a 1st in 2020 is enough to make the deal. I don't think CM3 needs to be traded to make this happen. With the loss of Ryan for the season I believe Clay would be fine to move inside and we play Mack and Perry on the outside. We let Burks develop in sub packages and in practice. If either Clay or Perry goes down (seemingly inevitable), we don't leave the cupboard bare.

I don't think we need AR12's input to make this move. The offense is not affected in any way; except the fact that they should be averaging more possessions in a game.. A deal can be structured to keep everyone if they allocate the money the right way in the upcoming years.

Our upcoming FA Classes are:

2019 - CM3, Cobb, Wilkerson, Ha Ha - The value of all four of these guys will be entirely determined by their play this year. Hopefully CM3 is realistic about his value as he heads into his mid 30s. Cobb has to stay healthy and produce, if MVS or EQS outperform him or even get a semblance of his production he's gotta take a pay cut. Wilkerson and Ha Ha already know that it's a make it or break it season for long term deals.

2020 - Bulaga, G-Mo, Clark, Daniels, Crosby - If Bulaga makes it to 2020 it's a miracle; so there's some money to recoup right there. G-Mo I think can be the next version of Robert Ferguson, so he won't break the bank. Crosby is a kicker and he better not do what he did the last time. Clark and Daniels will command all the money but the impending release of Bulaga should take some of the sting out of it. I think Daniels and Clark can also be had for "Team Friendly Deals".

If BG can pull this off, you can no longer mention Ron Wolf without bringing him up as well.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think he’s cost prohibitive. I’m not as concerned with the 1st rounders because we could get 2 Datone Jones types (and I don’t mean that being a good thing). Then again we could package a couple of draft picks to move easily into the top 20..top 15 or even possibly a top 10 overall pick in 2019.
We’d have that player at a discount for possibly the remainder of #12’s career. Not to mention what kind of FA acquisitions we could have for the $15M+ yr savings at whatever position we deem.
I’m not opposed to being bold but the $$ needs to be right.

 

[sschind]

I'm a little late on this thread but at first because I wasn't buying into the hype but now I'm all on board.

I think our two 1sts for 2019 or a 1st in 2019 and a 1st in 2020 is enough to make the deal. I don't think CM3 needs to be traded to make this happen. With the loss of Ryan for the season I believe Clay would be fine to move inside and we play Mack and Perry on the outside. We let Burks develop in sub packages and in practice. If either Clay or Perry goes down (seemingly inevitable), we don't leave the cupboard bare.

I don't think we need AR12's input to make this move. The offense is not affected in any way; except the fact that they should be averaging more possessions in a game.. A deal can be structured to keep everyone if they allocate the money the right way in the upcoming years.

Our upcoming FA Classes are:

2019 - CM3, Cobb, Wilkerson, Ha Ha - The value of all four of these guys will be entirely determined by their play this year. Hopefully CM3 is realistic about his value as he heads into his mid 30s. Cobb has to stay healthy and produce, if MVS or EQS outperform him or even get a semblance of his production he's gotta take a pay cut. Wilkerson and Ha Ha already know that it's a make it or break it season for long term deals.

2020 - Bulaga, G-Mo, Clark, Daniels, Crosby - If Bulaga makes it to 2020 it's a miracle; so there's some money to recoup right there. G-Mo I think can be the next version of Robert Ferguson, so he won't break the bank. Crosby is a kicker and he better not do what he did the last time. Clark and Daniels will command all the money but the impending release of Bulaga should take some of the sting out of it. I think Daniels and Clark can also be had for "Team Friendly Deals".

If BG can pull this off, you can no longer mention Ron Wolf without bringing him up as well.

So the Packers open the vault and pay Mack and that is going to want to make Clark and Daniels sign team friendly deals? I doubt it. Keep in mind that this years 10 million dollar players are probably 2020's 15 million dollar players If Clark and Daniels produce over the next two years they are going to be the big name free agents in 2020 and if they see Mack getting the big bucks they are probably going to want it as well.

 

[rodell330]

So the Packers open the vault and pay Mack and that is going to want to make Clark and Daniels sign team friendly deals? I doubt it. Keep in mind that this years 10 million dollar players are probably 2020's 15 million dollar players If Clark and Daniels produce over the next two years they are going to be the big name free agents in 2020 and if they see Mack getting the big bucks they are probably going to want it as well.

It’s way easier to find linemen who can play the run...but finding an elite elite pass rusher? Uh I’ll take Mack 7 days a week and twice on Sunday no doubt about it.

 

[Jerellh528]

So the Packers open the vault and pay Mack and that is going to want to make Clark and Daniels sign team friendly deals? I doubt it. Keep in mind that this years 10 million dollar players are probably 2020's 15 million dollar players If Clark and Daniels produce over the next two years they are going to be the big name free agents in 2020 and if they see Mack getting the big bucks they are probably going to want it as well.

If this years 10 mil players are 2020’s 15 mil players then by that time Mack’s 22 mil contract will be a discount . Jk but in all seriousness, contracts are rising yearly, Mack is almost twice the player of anyone else we have on defense right now. Daniels and Clark are the only two within the same stratosphere talent wise, I prolly would let Daniels walk due to age and being priced out . I think mack is worth it

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm going to take a hard pass on Mack. I might have been on board if he was seeking Von Miller type money, but the Rams and Donald are about to set the bar way too high for one defensive player, even one as good as Mack.

I would not have a problem giving up those first 2 round picks to get him, since that is the only trade leverage the Packers have over other teams, but the cap dent Mack would make at $24M+/year, no thanks.

 

[RRyder]

I'm a little late on this thread but at first because I wasn't buying into the hype but now I'm all on board.

I think our two 1sts for 2019 or a 1st in 2019 and a 1st in 2020 is enough to make the deal. I don't think CM3 needs to be traded to make this happen. With the loss of Ryan for the season I believe Clay would be fine to move inside and we play Mack and Perry on the outside. We let Burks develop in sub packages and in practice. If either Clay or Perry goes down (seemingly inevitable), we don't leave the cupboard bare.

I don't think we need AR12's input to make this move. The offense is not affected in any way; except the fact that they should be averaging more possessions in a game.. A deal can be structured to keep everyone if they allocate the money the right way in the upcoming years.

Our upcoming FA Classes are:

2019 - CM3, Cobb, Wilkerson, Ha Ha - The value of all four of these guys will be entirely determined by their play this year. Hopefully CM3 is realistic about his value as he heads into his mid 30s. Cobb has to stay healthy and produce, if MVS or EQS outperform him or even get a semblance of his production he's gotta take a pay cut. Wilkerson and Ha Ha already know that it's a make it or break it season for long term deals.

2020 - Bulaga, G-Mo, Clark, Daniels, Crosby - If Bulaga makes it to 2020 it's a miracle; so there's some money to recoup right there. G-Mo I think can be the next version of Robert Ferguson, so he won't break the bank. Crosby is a kicker and he better not do what he did the last time. Clark and Daniels will command all the money but the impending release of Bulaga should take some of the sting out of it. I think Daniels and Clark can also be had for "Team Friendly Deals".

If BG can pull this off, you can no longer mention Ron Wolf without bringing him up as well.

1: There's almost no scenario where we trade for Mack and Mathews is on the roster with him. They would need immediate cap space to accommodate his new deal and Mathews is by far the most logical guy to cut in that scenario

2: Why on earth do you think Clark would take a "team friendly" deal? I guess you could argue Daniel's might (not bloody likely but ok let's roll with it) but Clark? If he continues to progress like he has he'll be not just the top lineman on the market but also very well could be one of the best lineman in the league and one that will be looking to cash in on his first big payday.

I just dont get the logic behind thinking Clark will be taking a hometown discount.

This Mack fantasy is a prime example of the "go for it" crowd not thinking past the next season. It's hard enough to fill out a team with quality players when you have to pay a QB elite money, (and let's not forget Rodgers looming extension), but now people think it's a smart idea to send out multiple 1st round picks in order to pay a non QB elite QB money on top of when we have to pay our elite QB?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Then you're basically saying that you don't want Mack, right? Because there's no way he takes less than 20M.

Mack might not want to sign for less than $20 million per season but I'm not convinced he will actually get that much money.

My first step is I go to Rodgers and see what he thinks. Does he want Mack? How much does he want Mack? Would he be willing to help out a little bit on his contract to help get him here? Getting Rodgers done and then letting someone like Kendricks go would probably be enough to get Mack in here for next year and then our cap opens up to pay him the real money for a couple years after that along with Rodgers. I would love to be able to get him in here to play opposite of Perry and have Clay roaming the middle with Martinez! Oh the possibilities!

The Packers would save only $1.55 million by releasing Kendricks. There's no chance that's enough to fit Mack's deal under the cap for this season.

I think our two 1sts for 2019 or a 1st in 2019 and a 1st in 2020 is enough to make the deal. I don't think CM3 needs to be traded to make this happen. With the loss of Ryan for the season I believe Clay would be fine to move inside and we play Mack and Perry on the outside. We let Burks develop in sub packages and in practice. If either Clay or Perry goes down (seemingly inevitable), we don't leave the cupboard bare.

I don't think we need AR12's input to make this move. The offense is not affected in any way; except the fact that they should be averaging more possessions in a game.. A deal can be structured to keep everyone if they allocate the money the right way in the upcoming years.

The Packers currently have $11.1 million of cap space which wouldn't even allow to trade for Mack if he plays under the fifth year option this season. The only way the team could possibly afford to trade for him is by either including Matthews in a trade or to release him.

I agree that Rodgers shouldn't be asked for advice regarding the matter but the offense would be affected as the team won't be able to spend a lot of money on other players going forward.

Then again we could package a couple of draft picks to move easily into the top 20..top 15 or even possibly a top 10 overall pick in 2019.
We’d have that player at a discount for possibly the remainder of #12’s career.

There's no guarantee that even a top 10 pick would end up having a similar impact as Mack though.

If Clark and Daniels produce over the next two years they are going to be the big name free agents in 2020 and if they see Mack getting the big bucks they are probably going to want it as well.

In my opinion there's a distinct chance the Packers let Daniels walk away in free agency once his current deal expires.

 

[Mondio]

The only way Rodgers should be involved with any of this is if he walks into Gute's office and says, I will sign for my last contract again or less so you can get deals like this done somehow for my last 5 years here. and that's not happening. That's drunk Packer fan on a barstool talking about team building stuff. I'm not swinging for the fence here because I don't think we need to. give up 2 first rounders, cut Matthews and give another elite QB contract out? Then something weird happens like Mack telling Dix to give himself up on an INT in the NFCCG and there's no super bowl anyway. Or god forbid one of those guys gets hurt? Holy **** would we be screwed. all that draft capital given up and nobody coming up because we didn't have the picks to make and no money to get anyone else and probably losing some up and coming talent because we can't afford to sign them again either.

I get it, Mack is good, but IMO it's too easy to neutralize a guy or make a 20 million a year guy look like a 7 million or less a year guy at any position that is not QB.

 

[sschind]

It’s way easier to find linemen who can play the run...but finding an elite elite pass rusher? Uh I’ll take Mack 7 days a week and twice on Sunday no doubt about it.

I'd rather have Mack as well but I'm not sure what that has to do with the assumption that Daniels and Clark would be willing to sign team friendly deals.

If this years 10 mil players are 2020’s 15 mil players then by that time Mack’s 22 mil contract will be a discount . Jk but in all seriousness, contracts are rising yearly, Mack is almost twice the player of anyone else we have on defense right now. Daniels and Clark are the only two within the same stratosphere talent wise, I prolly would let Daniels walk due to age and being priced out . I think mack is worth it

That is actually a good point but I would be concerned that by that point someone signs a 30 million a year deal on defense and Mack holds out again. My main point was that I see no reason why players like Daniels and Clark would be inclined to take team friendly deals when a team mate has recently been made the highest paid defensive player in the league. I'm not expecting Mack, or Donald for that matter, will be the highest paid defensive players in two years. Someone will surpass them. I may have overestimated the 10 million to 15 million dollar jump but Von Miller's 19 million was the benchmark and if rumors are to believed Aaron Donald is not going to just surpass that he is going to obliterate it. We are not talking beating he other guy by a million a year.

I'm going to take a hard pass on Mack. I might have been on board if he was seeking Von Miller type money, but the Rams and Donald are about to set the bar way too high for one defensive player, even one as good as Mack.

I would not have a problem giving up those first 2 round picks to get him, since that is the only trade leverage the Packers have over other teams, but the cap dent Mack would make at $24M+/year, no thanks.

You have summed up my position exactly (that brother by a different mother...and father comment is scary) 2 first rounders, he is worth that. Two first rounders AND 24+ million a year...no thanks.

Mack might not want to sign for less than $20 million per season but I'm not convinced he will actually get that much money.

In my opinion there's a distinct chance the Packers let Daniels walk away in free agency once his current deal expires.

point 1- that may be true but if the 24 million a year for Donald is true I wouldn't be surprised if Mack gets close to that.
Point 2- Quite possible, the combination of his age and salary may make him unkeepable, or at least more letgoable, but I do not see him taking a team friendly deal.

I don't think we need to. give up 2 first rounders, cut Matthews and give another elite QB contract out?
I get it, Mack is good, but IMO it's too easy to neutralize a guy or make a 20 million a year guy look like a 7 million or less a year guy at any position that is not QB.

That's the bottom line and IMO its too much...even for Mack.

 

[Poppa San]

Wait much longer and this season won't matter. With Mack not practicing, he is reaching the point of camp where players come in, do too much, and get hurt. Probably confirmation bias but a definite risk.
Offer higher of our #1s, #2, CM3 for their #4 and Mack. If they don't want to take CM3 for our cap relief, then #1 and #3.
Mack to sign a 4 year $80m extension. Guarantee this season plus 80% of the next two. Some type of game availability built into that somehow.

 

[OldSchool101]

I would not have a problem giving up those first 2 round picks to get him, since that is the only trade leverage the Packers have over other teams, but the cap dent Mack would make at $24M+/year, no thanks.

Exactly. If we’re willing to spend $24M/yr range to bring a player in from outside, plus add multiple 1st rounders. Imagine the alternative.

Thats the equivalent of acquiring THREE $8M/yr players. Plus losing 2 first day pics. That’s an incredible amount of collateral.

If given the option. I would rather spread our resources across multiple players (give me 3 8M Dollar FA Veterans etc..) I like the security of knowing that if Khalil can’t play for any host of reasons, we don’t have all our eggs tied up in one basket.
I also like the idea of being patient and having an option to package picks and either get a top 10 pick overall in 2019. Or having the option to leverage one or the other to move around the board to get some quality replacements for all these expiring contracts.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

point 1- that may be true but if the 24 million a year for Donald is true I wouldn't be surprised if Mack gets close to that.
Point 2- Quite possible, the combination of his age and salary may make him unkeepable, or at least more letgoable, but I do not see him taking a team friendly deal.

I have a hard time believing the Rams will actually offer Donald $24 million a season but we'll have to wait and see. I agree there's no reason to believe that Daniels or any other player for that matter would agree to a team friendly deal.

 

[sschind]

I have a hard time believing the Rams will actually offer Donald $24 million a season but we'll have to wait and see. I agree there's no reason to believe that Daniels or any other player for that matter would agree to a team friendly deal.

I don't think such a huge jump makes sense either but that's the rumor I read. Funny I can't find it now. On top of that McVay is denying they are close. Guess that's what I get for paying attention to rumors.

You know, if Mack played for another NFC West team and the Rams had a ton of cap space coming up I could see such a deal being considered partially to affect the other team. Pay our man big so their man will want more and put them in a world of hurt sort of thing but they are in different conferences so I can't see it even being a blip on the radar.

 

[Mondio]

It's funny, stat wise, Mack is basically what Matthews was. then one got a big contract and hasn't produced to that level since and the other is looking for an even bigger one. I think Mack is a more complete player, but his hype now is what Matthews was at that point in his career too and we know how everyone feels about Matthews now. Not me, I think healthy he's still 10-12 sack guy and can earn his money, but health has been the problem and can be for anyone at any time.

 

[AmishMafia]

It's funny, stat wise, Mack is basically what Matthews was. then one got a big contract and hasn't produced to that level since and the other is looking for an even bigger one. I think Mack is a more complete player, but his hype now is what Matthews was at that point in his career too and we know how everyone feels about Matthews now. Not me, I think healthy he's still 10-12 sack guy and can earn his money, but health has been the problem and can be for anyone at any time.

I would add that Clay has been less effective due to the defense around him. He seems quick and strong out there, but too often the QB can quickly dump a pass into the open middle of the field. Another 1/2 second of coverage and Clay gets him. Tighten up coverage and I do think Clay is back at that level. Only area I think he doesnt look good, is he misses tackles he should make sometimes

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't think such a huge jump makes sense either but that's the rumor I read. Funny I can't find it now. On top of that McVay is denying they are close. Guess that's what I get for paying attention to rumors.

I have seen that $24M figure tossed around a lot, here is one. I have also read that this is what Mack is waiting for and should "set the bar" for him to get at least what Donald gets and possible more.

Downtown Rams‏ @DowntownRams
Source: #Rams and DE Aaron Donald are expected to come to an agreement on a massive deal that would pay Donald $24M per year with gurantees in the $65M - $70M range later this week.

"We heard last week from Michael Lombardi that Khalil Mackwas seeking $22 million a year, and this would make that a bargain as well. If Donald does sign a contract for that amount of money, it could push the framework of any potential Mack deal into the $25 million per year range, which is about what the Raiders are currently paying quarterback Derek Carr."

 

[sschind]

I have seen that $24M figure tossed around a lot, here is one. I have also read that this is what Mack is waiting for and should "set the bar" for him to get at least what Donald gets and possible more.

Downtown Rams‏ @DowntownRams
Source: #Rams and DE Aaron Donald are expected to come to an agreement on a massive deal that would pay Donald $24M per year with gurantees in the $65M - $70M range later this week.

"We heard last week from Michael Lombardi that Khalil Mackwas seeking $22 million a year, and this would make that a bargain as well. If Donald does sign a contract for that amount of money, it could push the framework of any potential Mack deal into the $25 million per year range, which is about what the Raiders are currently paying quarterback Derek Carr."

Yup, I did find it. The thing is you can probably get by paying one guy 25+ million (or maybe 30) a year but I think it would be extremely difficult to manage paying two.

Plus, as Oldschool (and others) says not only is that 25 million dollars (or 24) it is also 2 first rounders (though 1 and Clay would make it easier to take) I know finding a player like Mack late in the first is a gamble but we did it once with Matthews and we have two shots now. That isn't even taking into consideration the possibility of moving up.

All in all I don't think its worth the gamble. If Mack was on our team I might say pay him but giving up picks would be too much on top of the salary. The risk is too great even though the roster upgrade would be tremendous. Keeping the two picks and using the money to sign even 2 players would be a much better strategy IMO. That's two first round rookies and two 12 million dollar free agents vs one, albeit a great one, pass rusher. Four potential roster upgrades vs one. When you factor in potential injuries I'll take the four.

When was the last time the highest paid defensive player got a Super Bowl ring? Or offensive player for that matter.

 

[rmontro]

When was the last time the highest paid defensive player got a Super Bowl ring? Or offensive player for that matter.

Well, we're probably going to have the top paid offensive player here once Rodgers gets his contract. That's the problem with the salary cap, if you have a great player it can end up working against you. I guess that's how you keep parity though.

If we got Mack, we could end up with the highest paid offensive AND defensive player. How likely does that sound? I'd say not very.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There are so many ways that the draft picks necessary to get Mack could work out in the Packers favor or disfavor. Could end up being 2 late round picks and 2 rookies similar to what we have seen the last 10 years in Green Bay, hit or miss. Or, both the Packers and the Saints have mediocre seasons and 1 or both of those picks are in the top 10. Either way, I think it is going to take both picks to get Mack and there won't be any way around the $20-25M/year that he will require to keep playing in Green Bay.

Keep the picks and the cash, draft 2 promising Rookies and use the other $15-20M on 1-3 decent players. Those 2 first round picks could become very valuable down the road.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yeah we havn’t even considered that there’s an outside chance the Saints flop a bit and we’ve traded away a top 10 pick or somewhere close to it.
I like what Gute has done overall thus far. Time is on our side with the 2019 picks and Draft day will be here before we know it. Just look what the Bills were able to do moving around the board with their pair of #1 picks and trades.
I think we can do something similar next year.

 

[rmontro]

Yeah we havn’t even considered that there’s an outside chance the Saints flop a bit and we’ve traded away a top 10 pick or somewhere close to it.

Brees could get hurt like Rodgers did last year (God forbid), or Rodgers could get hurt again (God forbid even more), so yeah. They're probably late round picks but that could change.
Maybe I've lived too long under the Ted Thompson reign, but I just don't see this happening.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If Reggie Gilbert can play like he did tonight but against starting caliber guys, we can close this thread.