The Aaron Rodgers performance thread

[Pokerbrat2000]

Did you see the clip of the high school kid that put a move on Stephen Curry or James?? And I think he made the lay up? He shouldn't have never put a move on that nda star..but when he did he needs to make the final play..

Same premise

It was Steph Curry and the kid dunked the ball successfully.

If it's the same premise, then you need to apply it similarly and not in the vacuum of one player doing something, since what we are talking about is a pass from one player to another.

How many times do you anticipate said HS Kid to be successful in that situation, in not just making the move, but receiving the pass before it and making the basket after it? Should his teammate, James Harden trust that this kid is going to do that every time down the court and pass him the ball each time or maybe based on all the failed times before this one success, James knows that it isn't much of a sure thing and focuses more on his other 3 teammates to pass the ball to or just takes the shot himself? Finally, does that one success against Curry make this HS kid an instant NBA star?

So yes, right now Aaron Rodgers has James Harden (Davante Adams) and pretty much H.S. kids as his receiving weapons. Anticipating one of those not named Adams to run his route perfect, get open and then catch the ball has not been what Aaron Rodgers or the Green Bay Packers have been experiencing this season. Should Aaron ideally always throw a perfect pass and hit one of those open receivers not named Adams? Probably, if he ran the right route, #12 actually sees him, has an open passing lane to him and Adams isn't available (tongue in cheek). Will that guarantee that the receiver being targeted catches the pass?

At least we see eye to eye on the level of talent at the receiver position.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Anyone who may be interested in the Danica Patrick interview of her BF Aaron Rodgers, its available for free here.....

https://podcasts.apple.com/podcast/id1465014169

 

[isocleas2]

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

Graham has the second best average seperation of any receiver at 3.8 yards, Allisom and Adams are both in the top 25 and Lazard is top 50. The Packers as a unit get some of the best seperation in the NFL.

I waver in the debate over who's to blame, Rodgers or the receivers? I think the stats show it's more on Rodgers.

 

[PackAttack12]

It's not impossible for everyone to agree that Rodgers hasn't performed to his peak level this season, while also acknowledging that his supporting cast (as it relates to pass catchers) sucks outside of Davante.

This, to me though, is a huge credit to Matt LaFleur and what he is doing schematically, particularly at the beginning of games, and in the 3rd quarters. It also is a huge credit to Rodgers doing all of the little things at the line of scrimmage. Checking down, killing the original play call when needed, to get into the best play possible. When you have a depleted level of talent at WR and TE, the information he's processing at the line of scrimmage becomes that much more important.

Pay attention to how many hand signals he's using. How many times he's saying "can, can, can" or "kill".

The gary's of the world would say he's revolting against the head coach. No, he is using his many years of experience reading defenses to his advantage and getting us into the best play possible (running, or passing). The first running score from Jones against the Vikings was originally a pass play that he killed and got us into a running play. That's what he's doing right now.

If you want to say that it's more "game manager" than all time great, flashy QB play, then fine. But to me, he's doing quite well with the hand he's been dealt.

Is he missing some throws, and missing some receivers? Absolutely he is. But all that I ask is that, when making those criticisms, lets also take into account what he has to (or in this case doesn't have to) work with.

Additionally, it's still a new system. Anyone expecting for Rodgers to be as crisp as he's been in the past in the first season was NOT being realistic at all.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

Graham has the second best average seperation of any receiver at 3.8 yards, Allisom and Adams are both in the top 25 and Lazard is top 50. The Packers as a unit get some of the best seperation in the NFL.

I waver in the debate over who's to blame, Rodgers or the receivers? I think the stats show it's more on Rodgers.

When I read that both Graham and Allison rate high in this Stat. my knee jerk reaction is "WTF does the stat really tell us?" Is it telling us that they are amazing route runners or that defenses aren't guarding either player too closely because they don't respect their abilities as a receiver?

Chris Hogan led the NFL in 2018 with a 4.1 separation. Chris has only played in 6 games due to injury this season, but has 6 catches for 53 yds.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

For what its worth, this is an interesting stat this year. Right now these are the top 5 Passing Yd. leaders in the NFL, notice what they all have in common?

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[PackAttack12]

For what its worth, this is an interesting stat this year. Right now these are the top 5 Passing Yd. leaders in the NFL, notice what they all have in common?

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Call on me! Call on me!

Well...all five are going to miss the playoffs, while 4 out of the 5 are below .500. In many cases, the inflated passing yards for quarterbacks on bad teams is due to compiling garbage yards in the 4th quarter when defenses are giving you everything underneath, guarding against the home run ball.

EDIT: The Cowboys might make it, but only because they are in a lousy division.

 

[Poppa San]

And I cannot put my finger on it. Is it a greater fear of the sack and his declining ability to escape the rush like a decade ago? Is he rushing? Does he feel less confident because the great plethora of receivers is no longer there? Is he himself slowing down?

A hitch in his delivery from the broken collarbone - compensation from the lingering tenderness / arthritis?

notice what they all have in common?

Jersey number less than 20?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Call on me! Call on me!

Well...all five are going to miss the playoffs, while 4 out of the 5 are below .500. In many cases, the inflated passing yards for quarterbacks on bad teams is due to compiling garbage yards in the 4th quarter when defenses are giving you everything underneath, guarding against the home run ball.

EDIT: The Cowboys might make it, but only because they are in a lousy division.

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.

While I agree that garbage yards can inflate the final numbers, I just found it odd that none of the top teams have a QB in the top 5. Of course Brees and Mahomes missed games or they both might be in there.

I would be shocked if the Cowboys make the playoffs and equally shocked if Jason Garret isn't fired within 24 hrs of them not making the playoffs.

 

[morango]

I will ask my same question once again, but it seems like none of you want to answer it:

If the Packers put any of the following players on the trading block, what would they get in return?

1. Allison
2. Kumerow
3. MVS
4. Lazard
5. Grant
6. Graham
7. Tonyan
8. Lewis
9. Sternberger

Okay, point taken. I'll play.

I think at this point, Lazard and Sternberger could get a 5th rounder in trade, and MVS might get you a 6th or 7th.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Jersey number less than 20?

I could be wrong, but I think the NFL requires QB's to wear numbers less than 20? Stupid rule if it is still on the books.

Although maybe in the case of the Packers, its a good rule. John Hadle was probably the last Packer QB to wear a higher #'d jersey (#21) and he totally stunk that one up!

 

[XPack]

I doubt anyone can argue against the fact that Rodgers is off this season. It'll only get better. He's not even close to being done.

 

[PackAttack12]

Okay, point taken. I'll play.

I think at this point, Lazard and Sternberger could get a 5th rounder in trade, and MVS might get you a 6th or 7th.

I highly doubt that a guy with 32 career receptions would get you a 5th round pick. Perhaps you could get a 5th for Sternberger, but that's no surprise given that he was taken in the 3rd round and hasn't shown any boom or bust at all. He's essentially an April draft pick guy. I'm sure some teams would give up a 5th, but that's less than what the Packers invested on the front end so that isn't helpful.

You could be right on MVS, but again. We invested a 6th in him.

 

[Mondio]

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

Graham has the second best average seperation of any receiver at 3.8 yards, Allisom and Adams are both in the top 25 and Lazard is top 50. The Packers as a unit get some of the best seperation in the NFL.

I waver in the debate over who's to blame, Rodgers or the receivers? I think the stats show it's more on Rodgers.

I hate even clicking links for sites created for fantasy and gamblers, so someone explain how they arrive at that? is that per play, per route run? or only when targeted? I'm going to assume it's only when targeted which seems right. Rodgers throws to who's open.

Adams gets open because of his route running, he's it. I think Lazard can get there with more work. Allison is open by design. Graham too, he's too slow to out run or out quick even slow linebackers these days. and I probably like Allison more than many on here. He has his drawbacks for sure, he has made some big catches in big moments for us too. But even if he is open, he drops it more than anybody and if he does catch it, you don't know if he's going to fumble before the play is over or not.

I don't know what the probability is for that, but nextgen probably has a stat for it. and it would be as useless as this one.

 

[Poppa San]

I could be wrong,

You're not. Stoopid rules

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Okay, point taken. I'll play.

I think at this point, Lazard and Sternberger could get a 5th rounder in trade, and MVS might get you a 6th or 7th.

Fair enough, maybe a bit generous. So basically the Packers have, Adams plus 3 guys who might be valued high enough to get a 5th -7th round pick for.

I am going to take a wild guess and say that if you went through the rosters of the other 31 teams, the Packers would be at or very near the bottom of the list in regards to the total value of their receivers.

 

[morango]

I highly doubt that a guy with 32 career receptions would get you a 5th round pick. Perhaps you could get a 5th for Sternberger, but that's no surprise given that he was taken in the 3rd round and hasn't shown any boom or bust at all. He's essentially an April draft pick guy. I'm sure some teams would give up a 5th, but that's less than what the Packers invested on the front end so that isn't helpful.

You could be right on MVS, but again. We invested a 6th in him.

Yeah I agree with you. And I am not saying its a good idea to trade any of them, just throwing it out there. Most teams would take a flyer on Sternberger if the packers were stupid enough to take a 5th for him 8 months after picking him with a mid-3rd rounder. I think Lazard has shown enough potential for at least a few teams to take a chance. He's worth way more to the Packers right now though than a random 5th round pick, as he is basically a starter.

MVS is pure speed and may still develop, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Mondio]

You're not. Stoopid rules

I think they help the officials. Position groups have certain numbers. Helps look for illegal downfield calls etc. Makes it easier for fans and teams to break down film. Might seem silly, but uniformity and organization help people understand things they're seeing more.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I hate even clicking links for sites created for fantasy and gamblers, so someone explain how they arrive at that? is that per play, per route run? or only when targeted? I'm going to assume it's only when targeted which seems right. Rodgers throws to who's open.

I did some digging because I wanted to know what it meant as well. Now maybe I read the wrong information, but evidently each player has a chip in his shoulder pad that collects quite a bit of data. So the data being collected in regards to "average separation", is the separation distance of every receiver (from a defender), whether being targeted or not, on any given pass play when the QB releases the ball.

Again, I could have found incorrect information or misinterpreted it. But it seems to be a pretty misleading stat to me. A receiver could be 10 yards away from the nearest defender but not necessarily "open" due to the position of the defender or where Rodgers is on the field or in his progressions.

Always love when I watch a video dissecting a play and the person says "look, this receiver was wide open and he didn't pass him the ball". Sure, the Receiver was wide open if the QB had eyes in the back of his head, a birds eye view or the ability to freeze frame his vision one frame at a time and then reposition his body perfectly to throw 40 yds across his body and over 2 DL that are 6' 5" tall and bearing down on him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think they help the officials. Position groups have certain numbers. Helps look for illegal downfield calls etc. Makes it easier for fans and teams to break down film. Might seem silly, but uniformity and organization help people understand things they're seeing more.

Oh hell man, they have instant replay for all THAT now!

 

[shockerx]

i think Rodgers is finally buying into MLF system, give him another off season, give MLF another off season to refine the system around his known talent. Add a FA and a 2 or 3rd round pick at WR, Add EQ back...TE group will be better too...no where to go but up. And man the WR group deserves much credit for there blocking abilities...that needs to be factored in also...it helps sets a tone on offense. we are getting better.

 

[PackAttack12]

For a little perspective, these are both age 36 seasons for Rodgers and Brady:

Rodgers:

63.4% completions
24 to 3 TD/INT
3,679 yards
7.2 yards/attempt
97.9 passer rating
52.2 QBR

Brady:

60.5% completions
25 to 11 TD/INT
4,343 yards
6.9/attempt
87.3 rating
63.1 QBR

Brady had a difficult year as well. Can't remember everything that happened that season, but he only had Gronk for 7 games and did a lot of force feeding to Julian Edelman (which is what some are accusing Rodgers of doing with Davante). There's a similarity in the talent that each had to work with. Brady had Edelman and Amendola before they were Edelman and Amendola.

So I guess the moral of the story is that, a substandard season doesn't automatically equal diminishing skills or a downward spiral by any stretch.

Rodgers will continue to look better and more comfortable in this system, and his production will increase as well.

 

[Mondio]

It’s year 1 in a new system with new coaches and some areas lacking talent, what do people expect?

 

[OldSchool101]

Also think back and remember what happened to the offense during games when some of his top receivers were injured.

That’s a really good point. It wasn’t that long ago that Jordy in his prime succumbed to injury and our passing game struggled big time.

I want to ad that while there were several throws Rodgers was off, I believe there were also several throws the receivers were off their routes. One pass Rodgers threw to (Lazard?) into the redzone and the ball landed 6-8 yards outside when Laz turned inside. I’m nearly certain that was on Lazard.

Also there were several throws that Rodgers made where he flicked his wrist and the ball traveled 10+ yards on a dime. You don’t see that very much around the league. It’s very apparent to me his technique is still one of the best in the league.

 

[PackAttack12]

It’s year 1 in a new system with new coaches and some areas lacking talent, what do people expect?

Apparently they expect the same Aaron Rodgers from late 2016 when he had Jordy, Cobb, Davante, and Cook in a system he’d been operating for over a decade.