Stacking Up the NFC North

Poppa San

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Unfortunately Randall and Rollins struggled mightily when being able to be on the field, therefore I don't believe having had both available for the entire season would have made a huge difference.
Being on the field and being on the field healthy after being a full participant in practice all week are two different stories. Knowing the game plan and more importantly understanding the intricate designs of Dom's defense take field practice not book review while laying on the trainers table.
 
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Being on the field and being on the field healthy after being a full participant in practice all week are two different stories. Knowing the game plan and more importantly understanding the intricate designs of Dom's defense take field practice not book review while laying on the trainers table.

Randall and Rollins weren't rookies anymore in 2016 and had an entire offseason to get up to speed with Capers' defense. Therefore I don't believe you presented a valid excuse.

In addition that doesn't explain Randall not being able to cover Diggs at all in week 2 while being completely healthy.
 

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Randall and Rollins weren't rookies anymore in 2016 and had an entire offseason to get up to speed with Capers' defense. Therefore I don't believe you presented a valid excuse.

In addition that doesn't explain Randall not being able to cover Diggs at all in week 2 while being completely healthy.
Rookies or not, they are young and inexperienced. Even veterans need the reps in practice as the game plan changes every week. Not to mention player/play/matchups are unique and need to be practiced every week. As far as one game - one matchup - that happens. Hopefully he learns from it - but it doesn't mean he is a bust at this point.
 
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Rookies or not, they are young and inexperienced. Even veterans need the reps in practice as the game plan changes every week. Not to mention player/play/matchups are unique and need to be practiced every week. As far as one game - one matchup - that happens. Hopefully he learns from it - but it doesn't mean he is a bust at this point.

Not surprisingly you continue to put words in my mouth. I haven't labelled Randall or Rollins as busts by any means but am concerned about the Packers heavily relying on both of them bouncing back in a huge way.

While it's true that players happen to have bad games there were a total of only 10 180+ receiving yards game in the league last year with four of them occurring against the Packers secondary. That's plain and simple terrible and I'm not convinced adding House and a rookie will significantly improve the position group.
 

Poppa San

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Randall and Rollins weren't rookies anymore in 2016 and had an entire offseason to get up to speed with Capers' defense. Therefore I don't believe you presented a valid excuse.

In addition that doesn't explain Randall not being able to cover Diggs at all in week 2 while being completely healthy.
Randall went from #2 corner to #1 corner. I think Dom's defense takes more than a 2nd training camp to master. The main reason IMO that Dom and Ted do not match up well. Dix arriving late or not helping, Randall and Rollins looking lost so they play off the ball in the hope to not get beat. Dom's bleed the clock defenses late in games normally don't backfire but just make the defenders look bad. {see 2nd half vs Dallas division game} You do realize that in the playoffs last year this much maligned defensive backfield held OBJ, Shepard, Dez, and Beasley along with Eliot and the rest of their offenses to exactly 26 points over the first 6 quarters. Atlanta I grant was a different story where the pixie dust ran out.
 
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Randall went from #2 corner to #1 corner. I think Dom's defense takes more than a 2nd training camp to master. The main reason IMO that Dom and Ted do not match up well. Dix arriving late or not helping, Randall and Rollins looking lost so they play off the ball in the hope to not get beat. Dom's bleed the clock defenses late in games normally don't backfire but just make the defenders look bad. {see 2nd half vs Dallas division game} You do realize that in the playoffs last year this much maligned defensive backfield held OBJ, Shepard, Dez, and Beasley along with Eliot and the rest of their offenses to exactly 26 points over the first 6 quarters. Atlanta I grant was a different story where the pixie dust ran out.

I agree that Thompson's draft and develop philosophy doesn't match up well with Capers' complex defensive scheme. Unfortunately the Packers once again expect different results by trying the same approach this season.

There's no doubt that Randall wasn't ready to be the team's #1 cornerback last season but yet it seems the front office relies on him taking that step in 2017.

While the defense performed on a decent level against the Giants in the playoff there's no reason to get overly excited about that as their offense struggled mightily all year long.
 
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Dantés

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To what extent were Randall's struggles attributable to injury? To what extent were they attributable to the loss of Shields? It's really unknowable. We can conjecture... for instance, in the games that Shields missed in 2015 (CAR, OAK, ARI, and MIN), Randall came up with two of his three interceptions-- one which he took to the house. I can't claim to know exactly how he played in those games overall, but I don't remember him particularly struggling in those games compared to the rest of his rookie season.

That is the best I can do at trying to build the case, and really it's pretty flimsy. It's just going to have to play out. Personally, I think injuries were the bigger culprit (but not the sole culprit). I also think that players tend to make the biggest jumps of their careers between years 1 and 2, and years 2 and 3-- especially those that had limited experience coming in and are learning a complex defense. With another year in the system and health, I don't see why it's unreasonable to think that there could be a big jump in Randall's performance.

Or maybe he is just going to be a bust and the injuries are merely clouding the reality that he can't play. I'm not discounting that possiblity, I just find it less likely in light of his pedigree and rookie performance.

But I'm not really surprised that TT decided to handle the position the way that he did. GM's with his philosophy don't replace high draft picks this early. And, on the other side of the equation, the options were not stellar. I thought Gilmore would be great but he was really all alone in this market as a proven #1 and he landed 14M from the Patriots , who rarely spend money like that. Even if TT had been willing to offer that kind of money, I'm guessing Gilmore is still a Patriot.

I like how the position was addressed. You've got a veteran who knows the defense and played capably in it in House. You've got a freakishly talented outside corner to add to the mix. You've got Randall and Rollins back healthy. That is not perhaps the big splash move that many wanted to see, but it isn't nothing either. A year ago, you had Gunter playing 861 defensive snaps and Goodson playing 182. Those two might not even make this roster, and if they do will be buried on the depth chart. Barring another bizarre slew of injuries all at the cornerback position, I would expect a big jump from the disaster that the pass defense was in 2016. It;s not as though this is binary and you either have a premier lockdown #1 or you're a mess. Not having Ladarius Gunter, he of the 4.7 forty, as your #1 should prove helpful.
 

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By some of these comments you'd think Randall and Rollins were both playing in body casts and couldn't possibly be expected to do anything out on the field
 

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By some of these comments you'd think Randall and Rollins were both playing in body casts and couldn't possibly be expected to do anything out on the field

There is some over reaction but we did see this with Adams his second year. He looked terrible even though he played through the injury he just wasn't a good player. Then last year he was much better. I think that is the hope for Randall and Rollins. Promising rookie year. Disappointing second year. Bounce back third year
 

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There is some over reaction but we did see this with Adams his second year. He looked terrible even though he played through the injury he just wasn't a good player. Then last year he was much better. I think that is the hope for Randall and Rollins. Promising rookie year. Disappointing second year. Bounce back third year

But playing WR with Aaron Rodgers as your QB is hardly comparable to playing cornerback on an overall bad defense.
 

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The Bears are in for a bad season and their draft was terrible IMO, unless Trubisky turns into Stud other than that they got no help.
The Lions are looking like the team closest to us for the North. They strengthened their Oline grabbed Lang and drafted well. Tabor will be in rotation this season and though he wont be as good as King, I think he will hold his own. LB Reeves-Maybin will surprise alot of people and make some big plays. Kaaya will eventually end up Staffords backup. But my favorite pick of theirs was TE Michael Roberts, he will be a solid pro and take advantage and any snaps he gets behind Ebron. Roberts will be a name we hear alot more down the road.
The Vikings aren't to far behind the Lions talent wise IMO. They will be stout defensively and they drafted well offensively. Cook will team up with Murray to make a Dynamic New Duo add in McKinnon and thats a three headed monster sort of. Stacey Coley could end up being another Diggs, god I hope not. Plus they drafted my favorite TE who I wanted the Pack to grab. I had him going round 2-3 and he fell all the way to the 6th. Bucky Hodges is his name and now we have to play him twice a year. Youmay laugh now but 2 years from now everyone will know his name.
But I still see us winning 12 games taking the North, taking the NFC and the SuperBowl!!!
 
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Dantés

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But playing WR with Aaron Rodgers as your QB is hardly comparable to playing cornerback on an overall bad defense.

But what does that have to do with a player's ability while being limited by injury?
 

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But playing WR with Aaron Rodgers as your QB is hardly comparable to playing cornerback on an overall bad defense.

Um if you look terrible with Aaron Rodgers even though you are a solid wr it actually shows that injuries can hinder a player a ton.
 
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To what extent were Randall's struggles attributable to injury? To what extent were they attributable to the loss of Shields? It's really unknowable. We can conjecture... for instance, in the games that Shields missed in 2015 (CAR, OAK, ARI, and MIN), Randall came up with two of his three interceptions-- one which he took to the house. I can't claim to know exactly how he played in those games overall, but I don't remember him particularly struggling in those games compared to the rest of his rookie season.

The Packers allowed 28.8 points in those four contests compared to only 17.3 in the other 12 games with Shields in the lineup in 2015. That is a pretty good indicator the defense struggled without Shields. Unfortunately haven't adequately replaced him so far.

There is some over reaction but we did see this with Adams his second year. He looked terrible even though he played through the injury he just wasn't a good player. Then last year he was much better. I think that is the hope for Randall and Rollins. Promising rookie year. Disappointing second year. Bounce back third year

While Rollins had a promising rookie season Randall struggled for most of the season after teams finally started throwing his way more often.
 
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The Packers allowed 28.8 points in those four contests compared to only 17.3 in the other 12 games with Shields in the lineup in 2015. That is a pretty good indicator the defense struggled without Shields. Unfortunately haven't adequately replaced him so far.



While Rollins had a promising rookie season Randall struggled for most of the season after teams finally started throwing his way more often.

They allowed 20 to the Raiders and Vikings respectively, but 37 and 38 to the Panthers and Cardinals. That's obviously lousy, but those were the the #1 and 2 scoring offenses that season, which makes that 4 game sample kind of difficult to draw conclusions from.
 
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They allowed 20 to the Raiders and Vikings respectively, but 37 and 38 to the Panthers and Cardinals. That's obviously lousy, but those were the the #1 and 2 scoring offenses that season, which makes that 4 game sample kind of difficult to draw conclusions from.

While that's true the Packers allowed significantly more points in those two games than the Panthers (30.9) and Cardinals (30.1) averaged the rest of the season.

To be fair Arizona scored 14 points on two Packers' fumbles returned for touchdowns though.
 
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While that's true the Packers allowed significantly more points in those two games than the Panthers (30.9) and Cardinals (30.1) averaged the rest of the season.

To be fair Arizona scored 14 points on two Packers' fumbles returned for touchdowns though.

And slightly less to the other two teams in question.

I'm not arguing Shields' importance to the defense. But in trying to determine whether Randall and Rollins' regression was mostly due to injury or the absence of Shields, I just don't think we can do more than guess. Those 4 games isn't really a reliable sample to determine anything.
 
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Dantés

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I was listening to a Podcast that broke down all the draft classes, and it struck me how much more pure athleticism the Packers brought in compared to the other teams in the division. I wanted to find some way to compare. So I compiled the sparq scores for each player and each class and determined the averages.

I chose sparq because it reduces to one number, has an NFL % counterpart that helps contextualize it, adjusts for size, and isn't overly reliant on forty time.

Here's what I found.

Bears:
  • M. Trubisky, QB, UNC: 68th%
  • A. Shaheen, TE, ASH: 68th%
  • E. Jackson, S, BAMA: N/A (no workout)
  • T. Cohen, TB, CARAT: 10th%
  • J. Morgan, OL, KURTZ: 11th%
  • Average: 39th%
Lions:
  • J. Davis, LB, FLA: 83rd%
  • T. Tabor, CB, FLA: 17th%
  • K. Golladay, WR, NIU: 66th%
  • J. Reeves-Maybin, LB, TEN: 32nd%
  • M. Roberts, TE, TOL: 26th%
  • J. Agnew, CB, USD: 65th%
  • J. Ledbetter, DE, ARK: 66th%
  • B. Kaaya, QB, MIA: N/A (no workout)
  • P. O'Connor, DE, EMU: 55th%
  • Average: 49th%
Vikings:
  • D. Cook, RB, FSU: 6th%
  • P. Elflein, OL, OSU: 3rd%
  • J. Johnson, DL, IOWA: 11th%
  • B. Gedeon, LB, MICH: 63rd%
  • R. Adams, WR, USF: 25th%
  • D. Isidora, OL, MIA: 31st%
  • B. Hodges, TE, VTU: 95th%
  • S. Coley, WR, MIA: 36th%
  • I. Odenigbo, DE, NW: 62nd%
  • E. Lee, LB, KSU: 60th%
  • J. Tocho, CB, NCSU: 55th%
  • Average: 41st%
Packers:
  • K. King, CB, UW: 99th%
  • J. Jones, S, NCSU: 87th%
  • M. Adams, DL, AUB: 46th%
  • B. Biegel, ED, WISC: 58th%
  • J. Williams, RB, BYU: 36th%
  • D. Yancey, WR, PUR: 72nd%
  • A. Jones, RB, UTEP: 88th%
  • K. Amichia, OL, USF: 90th%
  • D. Mays, RB, USU: 64th%
  • M. Dupre, WR, LSU: 82nd%
  • Average: 72nd%

There you have it. That's a pretty significant difference. This is by no means a referendum on any individual player. Athleticism does not equal success. But in a broader sense, I do firmly believe that prioritizing athleticism gives you a better chance of hitting on quality more consistently. And I don't think that it's a coincidence that the Packers have been characterized by this practice and have been far and away the best drafting team in the division over Thompson's tenure.
 

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Talent level in the NFL is so high, a lingering injury that limits your mobility even slightly could be the difference between a pass defensed and a TD given up imo.
 
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A couple more notes:

King and Amichia has the highest scores at their position in this class. Jones was 3rd among all backs.

Biegel is listed as an off ball linebacker and his % reflects a comparison to that position group. My sense is that he would be higher if he was slotted as an edge, which is what he is.
 
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I was listening to a Podcast that broke down all the draft classes, and it struck me how much more pure athleticism the Packers brought in compared to the other teams in the division. I wanted to find some way to compare. So I compiled the sparq scores for each player and each class and determined the averages.

I chose sparq because it reduces to one number, has an NFL % counterpart that helps contextualize it, adjusts for size, and isn't overly reliant on forty time.

Here's what I found.

Bears:
  • M. Trubisky, QB, UNC: 68th%
  • A. Shaheen, TE, ASH: 68th%
  • E. Jackson, S, BAMA: N/A (no workout)
  • T. Cohen, TB, CARAT: 10th%
  • J. Morgan, OL, KURTZ: 11th%
  • Average: 39th%
Lions:
  • J. Davis, LB, FLA: 83rd%
  • T. Tabor, CB, FLA: 17th%
  • K. Golladay, WR, NIU: 66th%
  • J. Reeves-Maybin, LB, TEN: 32nd%
  • M. Roberts, TE, TOL: 26th%
  • J. Agnew, CB, USD: 65th%
  • J. Ledbetter, DE, ARK: 66th%
  • B. Kaaya, QB, MIA: N/A (no workout)
  • P. O'Connor, DE, EMU: 55th%
  • Average: 49th%
Vikings:
  • D. Cook, RB, FSU: 6th%
  • P. Elflein, OL, OSU: 3rd%
  • J. Johnson, DL, IOWA: 11th%
  • B. Gedeon, LB, MICH: 63rd%
  • R. Adams, WR, USF: 25th%
  • D. Isidora, OL, MIA: 31st%
  • B. Hodges, TE, VTU: 95th%
  • S. Coley, WR, MIA: 36th%
  • I. Odenigbo, DE, NW: 62nd%
  • E. Lee, LB, KSU: 60th%
  • J. Tocho, CB, NCSU: 55th%
  • Average: 41st%
Packers:
  • K. King, CB, UW: 99th%
  • J. Jones, S, NCSU: 87th%
  • M. Adams, DL, AUB: 46th%
  • B. Biegel, ED, WISC: 58th%
  • J. Williams, RB, BYU: 36th%
  • D. Yancey, WR, PUR: 72nd%
  • A. Jones, RB, UTEP: 88th%
  • K. Amichia, OL, USF: 90th%
  • D. Mays, RB, USU: 64th%
  • M. Dupre, WR, LSU: 82nd%
  • Average: 72nd%

There you have it. That's a pretty significant difference. This is by no means a referendum on any individual player. Athleticism does not equal success. But in a broader sense, I do firmly believe that prioritizing athleticism gives you a better chance of hitting on quality more consistently. And I don't think that it's a coincidence that the Packers have been characterized by this practice and have been far and away the best drafting team in the division over Thompson's tenure.

I truly believe you're putting way too much stock into measurements and the underwear olympics in Indianapolis.

Taking a look at their performance on the field here's a look at how the draft picks out of the division shape up according to their ranking on PFF's big board (just to clarify, I don't think that is a perfect metric by any means, solely for the purpose of information).

They ranked a total of 300 prospects on their big board therefore first-place was worth 300 points, second worth 299 and so forth.

Green Bay Packers:

Kevin King 250
Josh Jones 127
Montravius Adams 208
Vince Biegel 203
Jamaal Williams 195
DeAngelo Yancey 0
Aaron Jones 16
Kofi Amichia 0
Devante Mays 0
Malachi Dupre 135

Total: 1,134

Chicago Bears:

Mitch Trubisky 288
Adam Shaheen 150
Eddie Jackson 222
Tarik Cohen 51
Jordan Morgan 0

Total: 711

Detroit Lions:


Jarrad Davis 263
**** Tabor 261
Kenny Golladay 86
Jalen Reeves-Maybin 94
Michael Roberts 128
Jamal Agnew 113
Jeremiah Ledbetter 88
Brad Kaaya 186
Pat O'Connor 0

Total: 1,219

Minnesota Vikings:


Dalvin Cook 292
Pat Elflein 183
Jaleel Johnson 189
Ben Gedeon 114
Rodney Adams 0
Danny Isidora 185
Bucky Hodges 213
Stacy Coley 0
Ifeadi Odenigbo 55
Elijah Lee 0
Jack Tocho 125

Total: 1,356
 

AmishMafia

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I truly believe you're putting way too much stock into measurements and the underwear olympics in Indianapolis.

Taking a look at their performance on the field here's a look at how the draft picks out of the division shape up according to their ranking on PFF's big board (just to clarify, I don't think that is a perfect metric by any means, solely for the purpose of information).

They ranked a total of 300 prospects on their big board therefore first-place was worth 300 points, second worth 299 and so forth.

Green Bay Packers:

Kevin King 250
Josh Jones 127
Montravius Adams 208
Vince Biegel 203
Jamaal Williams 195
DeAngelo Yancey 0
Aaron Jones 16
Kofi Amichia 0
Devante Mays 0
Malachi Dupre 135

Total: 1,134

Chicago Bears:

Mitch Trubisky 288
Adam Shaheen 150
Eddie Jackson 222
Tarik Cohen 51
Jordan Morgan 0

Total: 711

Detroit Lions:


Jarrad Davis 263
**** Tabor 261
Kenny Golladay 86
Jalen Reeves-Maybin 94
Michael Roberts 128
Jamal Agnew 113
Jeremiah Ledbetter 88
Brad Kaaya 186
Pat O'Connor 0

Total: 1,219

Minnesota Vikings:


Dalvin Cook 292
Pat Elflein 183
Jaleel Johnson 189
Ben Gedeon 114
Rodney Adams 0
Danny Isidora 185
Bucky Hodges 213
Stacy Coley 0
Ifeadi Odenigbo 55
Elijah Lee 0
Jack Tocho 125

Total: 1,356
Lots of errors with this approach.

Players who are not in the top 300 are considered wothless. Reality is #330 is about the same value as #275.

Cannot quantify individual value. The difference between Mikes Garret and the #5 player is not the same as between #100 and #105. But in your measurement they are.

The value of one team is not the value to another, different systems different player requirements.

Only in the internet world can players be ranked on a consecutive list like this. Reality is there are players wjo are rated the same.
 
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Lots of errors with this approach.

Players who are not in the top 300 are considered wothless. Reality is #330 is about the same value as #275.

Cannot quantify individual value. The difference between Mikes Garret and the #5 player is not the same as between #100 and #105. But in your measurement they are.

The value of one team is not the value to another, different systems different player requirements.

Only in the internet world can players be ranked on a consecutive list like this. Reality is there are players wjo are rated the same.

It's hilarious that you consider Dantés post which heavily favors the Packers as informative although it only rates measurements and athleticism yet completely disregard a ranking based on college tape, which was only meant to be informative, because the team doesn't come out on top of it.
 

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It's hilarious that you consider Dantés post which heavily favors the Packers as informative although it only rates measurements and athleticism yet completely disregard a ranking based on college tape, which was only meant to be informative, because the team doesn't come out on top of it.
His post was regarding the athletic quality of the Packers. God forbid it should show the Packers in a positive light.

Simply put, your analysis method was poor. Although athletic skills doesnt give a total picture it is a quantifiable matter.
 

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Let's call it what it is. The Packers have gotten fat feasting on the NFC North, because it hasn't been a great division top to bottom for some time now. Aaron Rodgers would start on any ten in the NFL (Patriots included) but look at the rest of the roster. You have a bunch of potential backups starting in key areas.
 

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