Season Reflections At Bye Week

[tynimiller]

Welp...here we are, sitting at bye week undefeated. I had us 3-1/4-0 all hinging on the Saints game...but never expected it to have been this "easy".

Overall Notes:

• MLF has our offense leading in or Top 5 in nearly every important category that exists...this has occurred despite what many of us call a sub-par WR group each game and with a OL that has changed a lot since last year.
• Defense has done enough, but has continued to grow through each game many could argue. To do what we have starting an UDFA at ILB, reserves along our front while some concern is legit you cannot help but be happy with how they're projecting. Holding ATL to what they did (they are a good offense) was impressive.

Offense Notes: 4th in passing yards & rushing yards in the NFL, 2nd most overall yards.

• The dispersal of the ball in this system has been RIDICULOUS...I mean if we remove Aaron's one negative reception, yet include EVERY one with one reception or more...they all are averaging 8.3 recepts and 101.7 yards!! We have 6 guys already with a dozen receptions or more....two guys over 200 yards (with Tae at 192) and 4 over 100 yards. We have only 3 receivers whos YPC are under 10 - Aaron Jones at 9, Jamaal Williams at 9.2 and Tyler Ervin at 5.2.
• Tonyan has arrived folks, just is what it is. He officially is our TE#1 of the future, not Jace.
• The second year in the system, the chip of drafting Love all have Aaron looking like he is having a ball and legit appears to be running for that MVP award.
• Rushing the ball has been as successful as passing honestly. Jones (374yds) is pumping out 5.8 YPC and is averaging about 16 carries a game...Williams (108yds) is at 3.7 YPC and averaging 7.25 carries a game...and Dillon (34) 4.3YPC and two a game. Ervin has rushed 4 times for 43 years to note.
• Versatility and Diversity has reigned supreme...rookies and young guys are stepping up when needed.
• Zero turnovers...seriously....FIRE

Defense Notes: 13th in total yards allowed & 18th in points allowed with 3 turnovers. (remember that includes two teams that haven't played 4 games)

• Depth has been TESTED at various spots and 100% have passed the test, maybe not always pretty but passed for sure:
• Krys Barnes illustrating why many loved him out of college, his size and such though made folks wonder just who he was...so ecstatic with what he has shown. For any rookie, let alone a UDFA, his instincts and footwork is well ahead of what anyone would expect. I cannot wait to see if this is something he can sustain or not. Get Martin back, Kirksey back...this ILB group I am beginning to like more and more...
• Summers...a late rounder a year ago now is showing progress and has earned why he is in there.
• Secondary is getting better at tackling...last night loved seeing the non-stop pursuit of guys like Jaire and Savage...even after a miss they were relentlessly re-pursuing.
• Preston is playing a much different role this year - and excelling. You won't see it in a statline possible but trust me the staff loves what he is doing.
• Lancaster and Lowry are the dudes being asked to step up the most....and beaten and bruised but getting by. Lancaster showed the best last night IMO against the Falcons. Passing grade, but not the best...they better step up or get help (Snacks always help LOL ) to give us help when Clark is out and him a break when he is in.

Promising Young/Overlooked Guys Growing:

I mean we got past drafts or castaways all seeing snaps and delivering:

• Lazard - Cut/Castaway added late 2018...really tested last year and this year proving it may have not been a fluke.
• MVS - 2018 Draftee. Yes limited, but the dude has gotten serious attention from the opposing defense. He is not a #1 or #2...but 100% is a guy that can kill you as a rotational 2nd option or 3rd option given what he is.
• Tonyan - 2018 added UDFA/Castaway. Fellas FINALLY seeing his potential.
• Deguara - 2020 Draftee, many doubters like what he is when in there.
• Dillon - 2020 Draftee, limited snaps but when asked has done well.
• Jace - 2019 Draftee, has had good/bad, but still lot of growth to occur it seems.
• Malik - 2019 UDFA/Castaway, shocked folks making squad...now getting some action and showing promise.
• Shephard - 2019 UDFA, trying to come through after fumbling his 19' shots given. Kinda cool seeing him get out there and Rodgers clearly likes him.
• Barnes - UDFA 2020 - Cannot say enough, called upon before he should have been, done more than he should be able to...LOVE IT
• Summers - 2019 Draftee - Getting chances and passing. Has had some rough plays, but overall promise is there.
• Garvin - 2020 Draftee - getting snaps and delivering in limited time.
• Runyon - 2020 Draftee - Limited snaps but no hesitation by staff with him.

Obviously guys like Savage and others been progressing but clear starters from day 1 I didn't include.



I know I missed stuff but quick minute of reflection shared.

 

[XPack]

The dispersal of the ball in this system has been RIDICULOUS...I mean if we remove Aaron's one negative reception, yet include EVERY one with one reception or more...they all are averaging 8.3 recepts and 101.7 yards!! We have 6 guys already with a dozen receptions or more....two guys over 200 yards (with Tae at 192) and 4 over 100 yards. We have only 3 receivers whos YPC are under 10 - Aaron Jones at 9, Jamaal Williams at 9.2 and Tyler Ervin at 5.2.

This is probably the key.

MLF said he wanted a similar formation to run multiple plays and he has succeeded. With the diversity of receivers, we'll only improve when Adams, Lazard comes back. Though I'm not sure MVS has done enough to retain his position when they make it back.

We didn't really need to draft...but still our position/depth could have been so much more if we had drafted well.

 

[tynimiller]

This is probably the key.

MLF said he wanted a similar formation to run multiple plays and he has succeeded. With the diversity of receivers, we'll only improve when Adams, Lazard comes back. Though I'm not sure MVS has done enough to retain his position when they make it back.

We didn't really need to draft...but still our position/depth could have been so much more if we had drafted well.

I agree, and MVS's role in this system with two guys ahead of him is limited...but honestly that is when he excels. The dude in my eyes is a perennial wideout I want to have around, but never want to pay him #1 or #2 money for. The epitome of what I want out of my #4...somedays #3.

 

[El Guapo]

With the diversity of receivers, we'll only improve when Adams, Lazard comes back.

That may not be the case. Last year with Adams out, Rodgers spread the ball around impressively. When Adams came back, he zeroed in on Adams predominantly and the offense suffered. I hope that this year is different.

On defense, I think that we have to realize that the MO of Pettine's defenses in the past few years has been to bend but don't break. We give up lots of yards but make the game-winning plays when needed. We all ***** and moan, but in the end the defense helps us win games. The frustrating part is that they typically allow opponents to stay in the game longer than necessary.

 

[tynimiller]

That may not be the case. Last year with Adams out, Rodgers spread the ball around impressively. When Adams came back, he zeroed in on Adams predominantly and the offense suffered. I hope that this year is different.

On defense, I think that we have to realize that the MO of Pettine's defenses in the past few years has been to bend but don't break. We give up lots of yards but make the game-winning plays when needed. We all ***** and moan, but in the end the defense helps us win games. The frustrating part is that they typically allow opponents to stay in the game longer than necessary.

To be fair right now we are 13th in yards allowed, with two teams ahead of us having one less game. We're atm better than 2/3 of the league nearly. I don't disagree with you however, as I believe we do fit what you described.

 

[Dantés]

The defense on the whole is not great. It's struggled at times.

However, they're better than the raw statistics would have you believe. If you exclude garbage time, they're not bad.

For instance, the Vikings were down 18 points with 3:51 left in the game. That's game over. They scored 14 more points, which never mattered.

7 of the Lions' 21 points came with 3:32 left in the game, down 20.

7 of the Falcons' 16 points came with 7:26 left in the game, down 18.

 

[gbgary]

two predicted L's are now W's and it's all because of the complete 180 degree turn the offense has taken. the D is dicey up the middle but it seems to be getting a bit better. it's only 4 games. there's a chance it might get a boost with the "snacks" possibility. can't wait for the next game.

 

[gatorpack]

The defense has improved since the first couple weeks but I would really like to see some more turnovers forced right now we sit towards the bottom of the league with only three.

The offense it doesn't seem to matter who's in the game they are rolling!! Packers are the only team in the league without a turnover.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I agree, and MVS's role in this system with two guys ahead of him is limited...but honestly that is when he excels. The dude in my eyes is a perennial wideout I want to have around, but never want to pay him #1 or #2 money for. The epitome of what I want out of my #4...somedays #3.

Agreed, he's still a bit unpolished out there and not making those catches like the back shoulder throws that someone like Adams or even Lazard might make. But he's effective enough to be used if you scheme him right to get open deep or in open space to take it the distance.

That may not be the case. Last year with Adams out, Rodgers spread the ball around impressively. When Adams came back, he zeroed in on Adams predominantly and the offense suffered.

Well it's true, but a little oversimplified I think. The main game he did that in was against the Raiders, and they probably had the easiest defense we faced all year.

I think part of the reason he targeted Adams as much as he did was because we had some god awful players on this roster like Jimmy Graham, Gmo Allison and Jake Kumerow. Lol jk, they weren't god awful per se, but they were definitely not consistent or good enough, and we were right to move on from all of them.

I think Adams remains prime target just as Jordy was for all those years, but it'd be crazy to think Rodgers would just ignore guys like Tonyan and Lazard who've proven to be great workhorses for this team.

 

[PikeBadger]

The defense has improved since the first couple weeks but I would really like to see some more turnovers forced right now we sit towards the bottom of the league with only three.

The offense it doesn't seem to matter who's in the game they are rolling!! Packers are the only team in the league without a turnover.

I’m afraid we don’t have that impact defensive player on the roster that is a turnover machine like Woodson or White. I’d even settle for TJ Watt.

 

[Mondio]

The defense on the whole is not great. It's struggled at times.

However, they're better than the raw statistics would have you believe. If you exclude garbage time, they're not bad.

For instance, the Vikings were down 18 points with 3:51 left in the game. That's game over. They scored 14 more points, which never mattered.

7 of the Lions' 21 points came with 3:32 left in the game, down 20.

7 of the Falcons' 16 points came with 7:26 left in the game, down 18.

the defense CAN make big stops and make big plays. They do. They often don't make it easy on themselves. missed tackles for big TFL's end up big gainers. Put an offense in a hole and let them right out. They usually get it done, eventually at least. like 20 plays, for 3 points. that's a win for defense. Kind of. LOL but then they come thru and shut them down giving our offense the ball back.

 

[Dantés]

the defense CAN make big stops and make big plays. They do. They often don't make it easy on themselves. missed tackles for big TFL's end up big gainers. Put an offense in a hole and let them right out. They usually get it done, eventually at least. like 20 plays, for 3 points. that's a win for defense. Kind of. LOL but then they come thru and shut them down giving our offense the ball back.

They are lacking in some fundamentals-- e.g. run fits and tackling. But they are a plus unit in some key areas-- e.g. front seven players who create negative plays, corners who can cover.

Reinforcements will be arriving after the bye, with Clark likely coming back and Kamal Martin getting worked into the linebacker rotation.

Their depth at corner scares me, but Alexander has turned into an elite player. Gute might not get much more of note out of that first draft class, but he sure nailed the first pick.

 

[Poppa San]

I agree, and MVS's role in this system with two guys ahead of him is limited...but honestly that is when he excels. The dude in my eyes is a perennial wideout I want to have around, but never want to pay him #1 or #2 money for. The epitome of what I want out of my #4...somedays #3.

Every reception MVS made Monday night was for a first down. Almost every target was for 1st down distance. Not positive on a couple.

 

[tynimiller]

Every reception MVS made Monday night was for a first down. Almost every target was for 1st down distance. Not positive on a couple.

Yup! Don't get me wrong I'm not a MVS hater, however any team presently hitching their #1 or #2 wagon to him for long just won't do what I think they'd hope.

He is much better than last year...I feel bad in that I fear 2019 set his progress back some as he sank when asked to swim in the deep end far too soon...MVS still has a ceiling which is very attractive...but right now I want him to never be more than our #3. He is a good #3 with a ceiling to be a great #3 if not a #2B eventually in a few years or in games now and then.

 

[gopkrs]

It seems like I have been seeing (from a lot of teams) that the back into the flat has been very open and often. I gotta believe that defenses are going to start playing tighter. So that would mean not having that easy dump off play and/or needing to have receivers/tight ends make more plays. Of course it could also mean the back going out deeper like Williams did against Atlanta.

 

[El Guapo]

It's easy for us fans to talk about sneaking backs into the flats, and then running up the gut when defenses try to defend wide. However, the real key here is that the WR blocking has been pretty stellar for the Packers. We may not have three Hines Wards on the field, but our guys are sealing the edges to get Jones and Williams the extra yards. I love the attention to detail. Lombardi would be proud.

 

[XPack]

First Quarter PFF ratings:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-first-quarter-all-pro-team-2020

First Team:
Aaron Rodgers (QB),
Corey Linsley (C)
Jaire Alexander (CB)

Second Team:
David Bakhtiari (LT)

------------

I'd put Aaron Jones ahead of Alvin Kamara in second team.

Aaron Jones : 65 ATT, 374 YDS, 4 TDs, 93.4 YPG
Alvin Kamara: 50 ATT, 236 YDS, 4 TDs, 59.0 YPG

 

[Mondio]

First Quarter PFF ratings:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-first-quarter-all-pro-team-2020

First Team:
Aaron Rodgers (QB),
Corey Linsley (C)
Jaire Alexander (CB)

Second Team:
David Bakhtiari (LB)

------------

I'd put Aaron Jones ahead of Alvin Kamara in second team.

Aaron Jones : 65 ATT, 374 YDS, 4 TDs, 93.4 YPG
Alvin Kamara: 50 ATT, 236 YDS, 4 TDs, 59.0 YPG

Bakhtiari at Linebacker huh?

 

[XPack]

Bakhtiari at Linebacker huh?

Oops, LT not LB.

 

[Mondio]

Oops, LT not LB.

I figured, but when faced with the opportunity to understand and move on or be a smartass, I choose smartass. I blame my genes.

 

[Dantés]

First Quarter PFF ratings:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-first-quarter-all-pro-team-2020

First Team:
Aaron Rodgers (QB),
Corey Linsley (C)
Jaire Alexander (CB)

Second Team:
David Bakhtiari (LT)

------------

I'd put Aaron Jones ahead of Alvin Kamara in second team.

Aaron Jones : 65 ATT, 374 YDS, 4 TDs, 93.4 YPG
Alvin Kamara: 50 ATT, 236 YDS, 4 TDs, 59.0 YPG

If you combine total touches for Jones and Kamara, it's a little bit of a different picture:

Aaron Jones-- 80 touches (65/15), 509 yards (374/135), 6 TD (4/2), 6.4 yards per touch
Alvin Kamara-- 80 touches (50/30), 557 yards (236/321), 7 TD (4/3), 7.0 yards per touch

Kamara also has 7 carries or receptions for 1st downs on 3rd/4th down, while Jones has 2.

I think they're close, and fairly comparable as players, but I still think Kamara is better. If he's been breaking tackles in other games the way that he did in Green Bay, I can see why he would be first team.

 

[Dantés]

Stat nerds out there are probably familiar with fivethirtyeight-- Nate Silver's website. He is mostly in the business of political prognostication, but he and his team also create models to predict sporting outcomes.

They currently rate the Packers as the 2nd strongest team in football behind only the Chiefs. They predict a 12-4 finish for Green Bay and give them a 95% chance to make the playoffs, a 77% chance to win the NFCN, a 38% chance at a 1st round bye, and a 13% chance at winning a ring.

Here are those numbers again with the rest of the division, in the same order as above:

• Packers at 2nd: 12-4, 95%, 77%, 38%, 13%
• Bears at 14th: 9-7, 63%, 19%, 6%, 2%
• Vikings at 17th: 7-9, 21%, 2%, <1%, <1%
• Lions at 26th: 6-10, 10%, <1%, <1%, <1%

My guess is that the most inaccurate figures at season's end will be the Bears'. I think they'll crater.

 

[gopkrs]

I really want to keep Aaron Jones

 

[lambeaulambo]

I am not going to bash the defense too badly considering a 4-0 start.

I see a team that now has an inspired Rodgers that trusts the offense for the first time in 6 or so years, maybe longer. He is spreading the ball and trusting his team to adjust and look at the results - astounding. Smile on his face is due to MLF right in Rodger's wheelhouse to help with creativity behind the scenes. This is a thing of beauty so far. This is how good AR IS. It is as if he re-learned new nuances and it is lighting up like a fireball, and everyone around him is progressing. This is how its done. You can sense Rodgers happiness and his comfort level with what they are running is obvious.

This defense is a bit perplexing at times, but I dont think Pettine is anything but average at scheming and calling the D. He doesn't have enough athleticism on the D line other than Clark right now, so they are middle of the road at best. The linebackers have been a nice surprise, as there is more there than I expected. The secondary players are a bit above average at times, but Pettine needs to do a better job at playing to their strengths.

This team right now is predicated on a new nasty dangerous beast of an offense and offensive scheme that has different options from one formation, making it unpredictable.

 

[longtimefan]

No pre season to get in shape. Now players should be in game shape by now...

That could explain same low level play from certain players