Post draft conference call: Gutekunst emphasizes confidence in current WR group

[Pugger]

This makes total sense.

Picking someone on day 3 would not have made a lick of difference for 2020.

I think the criticism here is that he didn't make a move up to get someone in the 2nd or 3rd round. But that ship probably sailed for them when they made the move for Jordan Love.

This whole draft, in the long term, is really going to boil down to him.

I agree, after he moved up to take Love when it seems like all of the good WRs were gone we were never in a position to move up to take one in a later round. I don't know if the entire draft is going to depend upon if Love was worth it. This kid we took in the second that a lot of folks here are unhappy with might be better than we think.

And I'm not going to call Gute names because of what he says about the WRs presently on the roster. He isn't going to say derogatory things about the players now on this team. That doesn't accomplish anything.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I agree, after he moved up to take Love when it seems like all of the good WRs were gone we were never in a position to move up to take one in a later round. I don't know if the entire draft is going to depend upon if Love was worth it. This kid we took in the second that a lot of folks here are unhappy with might be better than we think.

And I'm not going to call Gute names because of what he says about the WRs presently on the roster. He isn't going to say derogatory things about the players now on this team. That doesn't accomplish anything.

Fair enough. But I think people have legitimate reasons to question Gute's priorities and question his 1st round picks specifically.

With Alexander, yeah I think he got that one right considering the problems we had had at that position in the previous two years.

I still say he got the Gary pick wrong with a player that was not a need and blew a chance to get real star player with that high pick.

This year...

Well OK, in some ways I do like the Love pick. Management obviously does realize that at 36, Rodgers is getting pretty close to retirement, and if any more injuries like 2013, 2017 or the scare in 2018 were to happen, that day may come sooner than we think. Plus we've had nothing but garbage backup QBs since Flynn left, so having a guy like Love to fill in if needed would probably be a better option than Boyle.

Having said that, I don't think getting Rodgers successor should have been a priority this draft. If WR went off the table, then get the ILB or another DL to pair up with Kenny Clark.

Gute has done some good like getting the Smith bros here and hopefully getting us the DB lineup we'd been trying to get to get for a while. But his inattentiveness to WR has been pretty bad, or at least way behind Ted Thompson's drafts that gave us Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy, Cobb and Adams. Unless we get back on that track, the superbowl will probably remain out of reach.

 

[tynimiller]

Loved Day 3 along the OL as well but none out of Stepniak, Runyan or Hanson were drafted to play RT this season.

Nor Kamal start at ILB. I do think Kamal will pair nicely with Kirksey

@PackerfaninCarolina assuming the disagreement you feel neither Kirksey OR Wagner were brought in to be starters at the positions voided by Bulaga and Martinez departures?? Really?

 

[Pugger]

Fair enough. But I think people have legitimate reasons to question Gute's priorities and question his 1st round picks specifically.

With Alexander, yeah I think he got that one right considering the problems we had had at that position in the previous two years.

I still say he got the Gary pick wrong with a player that was not a need and blew a chance to get real star player with that high pick.

This year...

Well OK, in some ways I do like the Love pick. Management obviously does realize that at 36, Rodgers is getting pretty close to retirement, and if any more injuries like 2013, 2017 or the scare in 2018 were to happen, that day may come sooner than we think. Plus we've had nothing but garbage backup QBs since Flynn left, so having a guy like Love to fill in if needed would probably be a better option than Boyle.

Having said that, I don't think getting Rodgers successor should have been a priority this draft. If WR went off the table, then get the ILB or another DL to pair up with Kenny Clark.

Gute has done some good like getting the Smith bros here and hopefully getting us the DB lineup we'd been trying to get to get for a while. But his inattentiveness to WR has been pretty bad, or at least way behind Ted Thompson's drafts that gave us Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy, Cobb and Adams. Unless we get back on that track, the superbowl will probably remain out of reach.

I'm not ready to pan the Gary pick just yet. I liked what I saw later last season. He might be asked to do more with Fackrell gone this year.

And I'm not all that sure they went into this draft looking for Rodgers' replacement. As the draft evolved they saw a chance to get a QB they felt could be a starter in the future and took it, just like TT did with Rodgers (but I will cede that Ted was fortunate that Rodgers fell and he didn't have to make the move up). Not many QBs like him are around later in the first round. Let's hope Love will be as good as Gute and MLF think.

 

[jon]

"I think as we've gone through a full season, we have a much better idea of who we are, of what we do well, and now it's on us to put that plan in place. If I look back at our day one install from last season to our day one install that is approaching this offseason, it's night and day different. We have a better identity of who we are." -- Matt LaFleur, 27 April


This explain more than anything, I think, why the office did what they did in free agency and the draft regarding the offense. They didn't get a #2 receiver or a slot guy but did pick up a big running back and tight end / H-backs. It is going to be run first and throw short off play action or run motion with a some deep shots. LaFleur has said more than once "you can't have enough running backs", and quick slants and deep posts are all you want from a receiver than MVS, Eq, and Lazard are adequate.


(FWIW, I have no theories about they've ignored the middle of the defense.)

 

[Dantés]

Fair enough. But I think people have legitimate reasons to question Gute's priorities and question his 1st round picks specifically.

With Alexander, yeah I think he got that one right considering the problems we had had at that position in the previous two years.

I still say he got the Gary pick wrong with a player that was not a need and blew a chance to get real star player with that high pick.

This year...

Well OK, in some ways I do like the Love pick. Management obviously does realize that at 36, Rodgers is getting pretty close to retirement, and if any more injuries like 2013, 2017 or the scare in 2018 were to happen, that day may come sooner than we think. Plus we've had nothing but garbage backup QBs since Flynn left, so having a guy like Love to fill in if needed would probably be a better option than Boyle.

Having said that, I don't think getting Rodgers successor should have been a priority this draft. If WR went off the table, then get the ILB or another DL to pair up with Kenny Clark.

Gute has done some good like getting the Smith bros here and hopefully getting us the DB lineup we'd been trying to get to get for a while. But his inattentiveness to WR has been pretty bad, or at least way behind Ted Thompson's drafts that gave us Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy, Cobb and Adams. Unless we get back on that track, the superbowl will probably remain out of reach.

It's too early to give a fair assessment to any of Gutekunst's draft classes.

His first, from 2018, is trending in a negative direction overall. But there is a chance for some of the higher picks to salvage the investment this season.

His second, from 2019, is trending in a positive direction overall. But there is a chance that players who performed as rookie take a step back.

A brigade of idiots armed with pitch forks have already decided that the 2020 class is a failure, but you know... consider the source.

If you don't like Gary, that's fine. But if you think that by taking someone else Gute could have a star on his hands, I think you have to look at the class again. Between Gary and Savage, there are exactly zero guys selected who are NFL stars. It's way, way too early to judge that pick relative to other options.

Which brings me to a related point: fans expect way too much from rookie classes. Players making big impacts in year one is the exception to the rule. Far more often, the big positive impacts are from guys in their 2nd and 3rd seasons.

In house improvement to the Packers' roster is most likely to come from guys like Lazard, MVS, St. Brown, Sternberger, Jenkins, Keke, Gary, Burks, Sullivan, Jackson, Savage, etc.

And please note, I am not saying that all those guys are going to be good. I am saying that those are the players at the stage of the development pipeline that guys typically start to make bigger contributions.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

@PackerfaninCarolina assuming the disagreement you feel neither Kirksey OR Wagner were brought in to be starters at the positions voided by Bulaga and Martinez departures?? Really?

I think you misunderstood my post or at least part of it. I was in favor of moving on from Bulaga, so yes signing Wagner and drafting Stepniak was a good move. Good there. In theory one would hope the ILBs are improved now with Kirksey here. It remains to be seen though, and we'll get our tests on the run defense this year for sure, especially when we face SF and Tenn.

 

[Dantés]

The Texans are reportedly one of the teams in on Larry Warford, who the Saints recently cut.

If they lose out to another team, then I would keep an eye on them as a landing spot for Lane Taylor.

That could potentially be a piece in a deal for Kenny Stills, who I think is the most logical WR target for Green Bay.

If Houston lands Warford, I don't know that the odds of the deal happening are zero, but maybe they lessen just a little bit.

 

[tynimiller]

I think you misunderstood my post or at least part of it. I was in favor of moving on from Bulaga, so yes signing Wagner and drafting Stepniak was a good move. Good there. In theory one would hope the ILBs are improved now with Kirksey here. It remains to be seen though, and we'll get our tests on the run defense this year for sure, especially when we face SF and Tenn.

I was merely trying to decipher or understand why the disagreement with my post. No worries.

 

[OldSchool101]

I still see a general underestimating of this WR group. I say that because Funchess, EQ and Lazard are each in a position to make a stride.

EQ is going into his 3rd season after showing why GB actually had Moore and himself reversed in draft placing. Lance Zierlein was correct, EQ should’ve went in the 3-4th round range. He’s big and strong, but also very fast for 6’5 215lb, running a high 4.4’s and putting up 20 reps. He also has repeatedly shown that speed on ST both in college and the pros with multiple blocked kicks on ST. EQ proved his average Yards per Reception would translate to the NFL with 5 receptions in the 20+ as a rookie. If he can improve his route tree and route breaks, he’s going to be a staple of this receiving group for the next 2 years minimum.

Funchess is essentially coming off a $10 million post-rookie contract with the Colts in which he was knocked out due to injury. Indi took an aggressive stab at him for good reason. He’s proven he’s powerful (from his TE days) and has good cut ability (6.98 3-cone) for a big man that’s 6’4”X230lb. He’s never going to win a long foot race, but he’s ideal to play against more aggressive CB’s. So he can also win in full press and provide that Short-intermediate target that we lost in Graham, but with better ability for YAC than Graham. If he can fix his dropsies, he could provide a dangerous target for Rodgers and he would quickly quiet the general consensus of disheartened Packer fans.

Lazard is an absolute steal, he went undrafted and is making 650k. In his 3rd season (2nd with GB) he could be the guy that flourishes over all three. He earned himself an opportunity to continue his ascension and could be the next Donald Driver of the Packers.

 

[PikeBadger]

It's too early to give a fair assessment to any of Gutekunst's draft classes.

His first, from 2018, is trending in a negative direction overall. But there is a chance for some of the higher picks to salvage the investment this season.

His second, from 2019, is trending in a positive direction overall. But there is a chance that players who performed as rookie take a step back.

A brigade of idiots armed with pitch forks have already decided that the 2020 class is a failure, but you know... consider the source.

If you don't like Gary, that's fine. But if you think that by taking someone else Gute could have a star on his hands, I think you have to look at the class again. Between Gary and Savage, there are exactly zero guys selected who are NFL stars. It's way, way too early to judge that pick relative to other options.

Which brings me to a related point: fans expect way too much from rookie classes. Players making big impacts in year one is the exception to the rule. Far more often, the big positive impacts are from guys in their 2nd and 3rd seasons.

In house improvement to the Packers' roster is most likely to come from guys like Lazard, MVS, St. Brown, Sternberger, Jenkins, Keke, Gary, Burks, Sullivan, Jackson, Savage, etc.

And please note, I am not saying that all those guys are going to be good. I am saying that those are the players at the stage of the development pipeline that guys typically start to make bigger contributions.

In house improvement: I’ve always tried to be realistic in that like you said, not all will make the big jump. I’ve always broken it down into thirds in that a third won’t make enough improvement to hold onto a roster spot by the beginning of year 4. A third will continue to make improvement enough to continue the staffs trust in them as role players, and a third will make the jump into a significant role.
There are a lot of variables involved in development and timelines are different. Lots of these guys in the past we saw jumps taking place as the season wore on.

 

[OldSchool101]

In house improvement to the Packers' roster is most likely to come from guys like Lazard, MVS, St. Brown, Sternberger, Jenkins, Keke, Gary, Burks, Sullivan, Jackson, Savage, etc.

I agree. I’d like to see at least 3 of that group make a marked improvement. There’s absolutely no reason that shouldn’t happen.
Lazard went undrafted and is now a 3rd year receiver who, last season, proved he belongs in the NFL when he was pressed into duty.
MVS has elite speed an while drafted late, provides just enough upside to fulfill that role of a “burner” or “deep threat”. Somewhere inside Year 3 (2 in a new system) is precisely when you’d expect to see a jump
in production.
EQ St Brown May be the most underrated WR on this team. He came into the draft with a NFL 6.2 rating (which ranked in the top 10 WR’s) and 27 Wideouts were gone before his name was mentioned? In 2020
Gabriel Davis was rated similar and the 5 WR drafted before him were Mims, Hamler, Claypool, Jefferson and Bowden. All pretty much household names for those of us that follow the draft. The outlier here is he’s not a rookie like all those guys.. He’s basically year 3 with a redshirt (Injury season).
Sternberger was a top #75 selection for good reason. He has the ability to produce as a blocker and receiver in year 2.
Jenkins is already there. He’s the real deal.
Keke and Montravious have shown flashes of dominance, but this is the season that at least 1of2 rises.
Gary is a super human athlete. Once he’s got the system down. He’s going to be above average for his tenure, but with the ceiling of a featured starter like a Kenny.
Burks, Savage and Jackson were all college standouts and were all day 1 or day 2 selections because of it. They just need to rise to the next level.
Sullivan is the Lazard of the Defense. He’s a totally unexpected surprise. I’m no expert, but he’s got Safety written all over him. Savage and Sullivan could switch roles and we wouldn’t miss a tick, but having Savage more involved shooting gaps and blitzing would be a better use of his phenomenal talent and speed. Savage can also use his elite speed to make up distance to stick to Slot receivers. It would also be helpful to have a ultra fast 4.3’s guy causing disruption in the backfield before a running play develops (this was one of his best traits in college film) Sitting back and waiting for a play to develop (aka.. using a 3-1-7..ok I’m being sarcastic! Or am I??)
is the kiss of death.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Nor Kamal start at ILB. I do think Kamal will pair nicely with Kirksey

Who do you think will start opposite Kirksey if Martin doesn't???

As the draft evolved they saw a chance to get a QB they felt could be a starter in the future and took it, just like TT did with Rodgers (but I will cede that Ted was fortunate that Rodgers fell and he didn't have to make the move up). Not many QBs like him are around later in the first round. Let's hope Love will be as good as Gute and MLF think.

It was a completely different situation with Rodgers who was widely considered to be a possible #1 overall pick entering the draft though.

A brigade of idiots armed with pitch forks have already decided that the 2020 class is a failure, but you know... consider the source.

You mean the sources, like in close to everyone covering the league.

Far more often, the big positive impacts are from guys in their 2nd and 3rd seasons.

In house improvement to the Packers' roster is most likely to come from guys like Lazard, MVS, St. Brown, Sternberger, Jenkins, Keke, Gary, Burks, Sullivan, Jackson, Savage, etc.

As mentioned in another thread that hasn't worked out well for the Packers last season with Aaron Jones improving as a receiver was the only significant upgrade from any of the 21 players selected in 2017 and '18.

I’d like to see at least 3 of that group make a marked improvement. There’s absolutely no reason that shouldn’t happen.

Unfortunately it's wishful thinking to expect a lot of second and third year players to significantly improve. It didn't happen last year for the Packers though.

 

[Dantés]

You mean the sources, like in close to everyone covering the league.

Anyone who has already declared any class from the 2020 draft a failure is an idiot, yes.

 

[GleefulGary]

Imagine outright saying it's wishful thinking for 2nd and 3rd years to significantly improve.

Everybody came into the league at the level they're at!

 

[Dantés]

Imagine outright saying it's wishful thinking for 2nd and 3rd years to significantly improve.

Everybody came into the league at the level they're at!

No, see TT's really bad stretch to close out his tenure as GM actually permanently changed the way development happened in the NFL. Players don't improve now. Thompson Thanos'd the whole thing.

 

[Dantés]

As mentioned in another thread that hasn't worked out well for the Packers last season with Aaron Jones improving as a receiver was the only significant upgrade from any of the 21 players selected in 2017 and '18.

Unfortunately it's wishful thinking to expect a lot of second and third year players to significantly improve. It didn't happen last year for the Packers though.

Kevin King also had the most valuable and productive season of his career. But yes, 2017 and 2018 are shaping up to be rather poor draft classes. We will see where 2018 lands after the season is over. It's weird that you think that somehow changes how development generally works in the NFL.

If the current front office and coaching staff of the Packers can't develop players and has to rely solely on rookies immediately being good, or paying premium contracts for veterans, then that's another way of saying that they can't compete in this league and need to be replaced.

It's weird to me that someone with such definitive opinions doesn't understand how the draft actually works.

 

[Pugger]

It was a completely different situation with Rodgers who was widely considered to be a possible #1 overall pick entering the draft though.

Yes, a lot of folks thought Rodgers would go first - and looking back he should have been. I was more stressing that in 2005 we already had a HOF QB just like we do now. Gute decided to take a shot at getting a QB who he felt could be our franchise QB of the future just like Ted did. Who knows when we'll have an opportunity to draft a QB like this this late in the first round as long as AR is our starting QB? I did disagree with Gute for moving up like he did. I think Love would have still been there at #30 but I guess Gute didn't want to take that chance.

 

[Pugger]

No, see TT's really bad stretch to close out his tenure as GM actually permanently changed the way development happened in the NFL. Players don't improve now. Thompson Thanos'd the whole thing.

TT's bad stretch happened because he started to draft poorly. That isn't a good thing for a guy who rarely dabbled in FA. In his last 3 drafts only Kenny Clark and perhaps Kevin King are the only players left that I would consider better than average. He missed on a slew of guys and most of them are no longer on the roster. Not one guy from 2015 is still around.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

 

[Dantés]

TT's bad stretch happened because he started to draft poorly. That isn't a good thing for a guy who rarely dabbled in FA. In his last 3 drafts only Kenny Clark and perhaps Kevin King are the only players left that I would consider better than average. He missed on a slew of guys and most of them are no longer on the roster. Not one guy from 2015 is still around.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

Dean Lowry, Blake Martinez, and Aaron Jones were good picks too, but yeah... that's what I was referring to.

 

[OldSchool101]

Unfortunately it's wishful thinking to expect a lot of second and third year players to significantly improve. It didn't happen last year for the Packers though.

Absolutely True, we didn’t and that’s a good argument when no one really took that role of stepping onto the stage. But I disagree in particular with guys who were drafted as day 1-2 selections. Year 2 and 3 is exactly when you’d expect them to rise to the occasion. Just because 2019 didn’t produce the expected doesn’t mean your Acorn or Pecan tree is dead. Rosters are like nuts.. they come in waves and it’s rarely consistent. The more I look over the roster, the more I see guys that were either coming on strong and succumbed to injury or just hadn’t earned those snaps because they needed a Redshirt season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Anyone who has already declared any class from the 2020 draft a failure is an idiot, yes.

Of course it's years too early to declare the Packers 2020 draft class as a failure. It's possible to make educated guesses though.

Imagine outright saying it's wishful thinking for 2nd and 3rd years to significantly improve.

Everybody came into the league at the level they're at!

There's no doubt it's possible for players to make a significant jump during their second and third seasons. If you would be able to take an objective look at the Packers draft classes from 2014-18 as an example you would realize it doesn't happen that often as you might think though.

No, see TT's really bad stretch to close out his tenure as GM actually permanently changed the way development happened in the NFL. Players don't improve now. Thompson Thanos'd the whole thing.

It might be smart for you to evaluate how the Packers draft classes from 2014-18 did in that regard as well.

Kevin King also had the most valuable and productive season of his career. But yes, 2017 and 2018 are shaping up to be rather poor draft classes. We will see where 2018 lands after the season is over. It's weird that you think that somehow changes how development generally works in the NFL.

It's weird to me that someone with such definitive opinions doesn't understand how the draft actually works.

Once again, in a perfect world rookies immediately contribute and then improve further during their second and third seasons. While there's no doubt it happens it doesn't occur as often as you want to make us believe.

I was more stressing that in 2005 we already had a HOF QB just like we do now.

Favre threatened to retire several times before Thompson decided to select Rodgers in 2005. Aaron has repeatedly said he wants to play into his 40s. Completely different situation.

TT's bad stretch happened because he started to draft poorly. That isn't a good thing for a guy who rarely dabbled in FA. In his last 3 drafts only Kenny Clark and perhaps Kevin King are the only players left that I would consider better than average.

Even with King being an above average player it would have been way smarter for Thompson to stay put and select TJ Watt.

But I disagree in particular with guys who were drafted as day 1-2 selections. Year 2 and 3 is exactly when you’d expect them to rise to the occasion. Just because 2019 didn’t produce the expected doesn’t mean your Acorn or Pecan tree is dead.

It's fine to expect second and third year players to rise to the occasion but actually it doesn't happen that often. Just take a look at the past six years with the Packers.

 

[Dantés]

Once again, in a perfect world rookies immediately contribute and then improve further during their second and third seasons. While there's no doubt it happens it doesn't occur as often as you want to make us believe.

You've ignored what I said and read what you wanted to read.

If a team is drafting successfully, then over time the biggest in-house improvements to the roster will be 2nd and 3rd year players, not rookies. This is painfully obvious to anyone who takes just a passing glance around the league.

We don't know if Gutekunst is drafting successfully right now because his first class hasn't even played its 3rd season yet.

As I said in the first place, there's no guarantee that all or any of the 2nd/3rd year players will be a big boost to the roster. However, that group of players is where improvement is most likely to come from if it comes from anywhere, because that's how the league works.

This is what I said in the first place, and you, apparently desperate to stamp down anything that might resemble optimism regarding the Packers, took it a different direction and argued with a point I didn't make.

 

[GleefulGary]

.



There's no doubt it's possible for players to make a significant jump during their second and third seasons. If you would be able to take an objective look at the Packers draft classes from 2014-18 as an example you would realize it doesn't happen that often as you might think though.



It might be smart for you to evaluate how the Packers draft classes from 2014-18 did in that regard as well.
.


.



It's fine to expect second and third year players to rise to the occasion but actually it doesn't happen that often. Just take a look at the past six years with the Packers.

In this case, you only want to look at GB. In another case, say 6th round draft picks not staying on rosters, you want to look at the scope of the NFL.

You're only choosing the data that backs up your theory.

Will every player improve in their 2nd and/or 3rd years? Of course not! Nobody is saying that. But do a good amount of NFL players improve in that time span? Obviously yes.

You're making this so much more difficult than it is.

 

[Pugger]

Of course it's years too early to declare the Packers 2020 draft class as a failure. It's possible to make educated guesses though.



There's no doubt it's possible for players to make a significant jump during their second and third seasons. If you would be able to take an objective look at the Packers draft classes from 2014-18 as an example you would realize it doesn't happen that often as you might think though.



It might be smart for you to evaluate how the Packers draft classes from 2014-18 did in that regard as well.



Once again, in a perfect world rookies immediately contribute and then improve further during their second and third seasons. While there's no doubt it happens it doesn't occur as often as you want to make us believe.



Favre threatened to retire several times before Thompson decided to select Rodgers in 2005. Aaron has repeatedly said he wants to play into his 40s. Completely different situation.



Even with King being an above average player it would have been way smarter for Thompson to stay put and select TJ Watt.



It's fine to expect second and third year players to rise to the occasion but actually it doesn't happen that often. Just take a look at the past six years with the Packers.

I'm definitely with you in regards to King. I too think TJ Watt would have been the far superior pick.