Playoff run

[OldSchool101]

They are in reality.... but since we are hoping .... a Viking loss to the Bengals.... would mean we could root for the Bears to beat the Vikings as well in the last game.... Assuming the Packers win out (every scenario depends on that). That would put both teams at 10-6 with Green Bay having the better division record.

I notice that also. We’d be 4-2 vs Vikes at 3-3

The other interesting note is that the Falcons really are not a concern if we win all 3 and they lose vs. the Panthers. The Panthers would win the tie breaker because of the 2-0 sweep.
But then GB would nullify the Panthers because we’d have the same 10 wins.. and win that Conference tie breaker.
The second we beat the Panthers we need to become Panther fans. Lol

 

[OldSchool101]

I might add the Jets to the list as well.

I know we would naturally think that. But wouldn’t the Jets winning increase the odds of a Saints vs Packers tie breaker?
I think we want the Saints to win that Division because it’s very unlikely they go 0-3 to finish and then they would hold the tie breaker.
I could be wrong? It may be just an odds % thing that Saints probably won’t lose out and that causes another issue.

 

[Title Town USA]

How about this?

Packers over Panthers
Rams over Seahawks
Bucs over Falcons

I know the last one isn't particularly likely, but if it happens, that's all the help the Packers would need to guarantee their spot in the playoffs, assuming they win out. They would control their own destiny.

Exactly - that's what I was thinking about today as well. It's possible the Packers could control their own destiny after this weekend! Packers and Rams winning are obviously very possible. Bucs would be a pretty big upset - but it's on Monday night in Tampa...you never know. Falcons offense has been pretty inconsistent this season.

 

[OldSchool101]

Exactly - that's what I was thinking about today as well. It's possible the Packers could control their own destiny after this weekend! Packers and Rams winning are obviously very possible. Bucs would be a pretty big upset - but it's on Monday night in Tampa...you never know. Falcons offense has been pretty inconsistent this season.

Anything goes and it would sure make things easier. Yes Were definitely Rams fans the remainder of the year!
Oddly. We also become Carolina fans the very second we beat them because they play Atlanta to close things out.
I just love the fact the Packers now hold the keys to a host of teams playoff hopes. The fact that Aaron Rodgers is back probably made quite a few NFC fans gulp.
Many of us were counting our team out. It’s suddenly getting very very interesting

 

[PackAttack12]

Anything goes and it would sure make things easier. Yes Were definitely Rams fans the remainder of the year!
Oddly. We also become Carolina fans the very second we beat them because they play Atlanta to close things out.
I just love the fact the Packers now hold the keys to a host of teams playoff hopes. The fact that Aaron Rodgers is back probably made quite a few NFC fans gulp.

Not disagreeing with you because I might be missing something, but if we beat Carolina and then they win out, that would put them at 11-5. That presents the possibility of them winning the division and New Orleans dropping into the wild card discussion. We don't hold the tie breaker over New Orleans. So that brings another challenge to the table.

I would be totally fine with Carolina losing in week 16.

 

[OldSchool101]

Not disagreeing with you because I might be missing something, but if we beat Carolina and then they win out, that would put them at 11-5. That presents the possibility of them winning the division and New Orleans dropping into the wild card discussion. We don't hold the tie breaker over New Orleans. So that brings another challenge to the table.

I would be totally fine with Carolina losing in week 16.

Agreed. That was stupid of me. we’ve talked a bunch about them need long to lose at least one of those 2 final games. All these scenarios got me spinning
Tell me something. I know it initially sounds crazy but Wouldn’t we want the Saints to just win out and take the Division also? So we compete with Carolina who we own the tie breaker?

 

[4zone]

My suggestion: sit back and enjoy watching the last three games (regular season). Quit worrying about something you have no control over and watch the games for pure enjoyment. I bet for most people, they haven't done that in quite a long time.

 

[PackAttack12]

Agreed. That was stupid of me. we’ve talked a bunch about them need long to lose at least one of those 2 final games. All these scenarios got me spinning
Tell me something. I know it initially sounds crazy but Wouldn’t we want the Saints to just win out and take the Division also? So we compete with Carolina who we own the tie breaker?

For me, the formula is simple. Seattle loses another game. They get removed from our radar. That then puts the focus strictly on Carolina/Atlanta. How do we snag one spot from either of those teams?

Simple. Carolina needs to lose another game besides the one this Sunday. The Falcons need to lose 2 of 3. So that means, if Atlanta loses to either Tampa or New Orleans. We are in. Why? Because in Week 17 under this scenario, it doesn't matter if it's Atlanta or Carolina that loses. The Packers are in because there is a guaranteed loss for SOMEONE out of those two. The winner of that game is in, alongside the Packers.

The most simple way to look at it though, is the Packers are in with one more Seattle loss, and one more Carolina loss in either Week 16 or 17. That's the easiest one.

To answer your question about New Orleans, yes. We want them to win out. Keeps them the hell away from us. Even though that could potentially set up a 1st round matchup of Green Bay going TO New Orleans, but step #1 is to punch our ticket to get in. Worry about the opponent later.

 

[PackAttack12]

So I've come up with several scenarios for the Packers to make the playoffs that aren't confusing. Here are some:

(all contingent on the Packers running the table)

Packers are in IF:

- Seattle loses one more game, and Carolina loses another game to any team not named the Packers
- Seattle loses one more game, and Atlanta loses in either Week 15 or 16 (makes week 17 inconsequential)
- (even if Seattle and Atlanta wins out), Packers are in if the Rams lose 2 of its last 3 (one would be to Seattle)
- Minnesota loses out

- Packers control their own destiny after THIS WEEKEND, if: Seahawks beat Rams, Bucs beat Falcons

Those are the simplest ones to explain that I could figure up.

Percentages:

- If Carolina wins their last two, the Packers still have a 63% chance of making the playoffs
- If Seattle wins out, the Packers still have a 75% chance of making the playoffs
- If Atlanta wins out, the Packers still have a 92% chance of making the playoffs
- If Atlanta loses to either Tampa or New Orleans, the Packers have a 98% chance to make the playoffs.
- If Seattle loses to LA, the Packers have a 95% chance to make the playoffs.
- If Carolina loses another game besides this Sunday, the Packers have a 97% chance to make the playoffs.

I cannot say enough about how HUGE it is that Seattle plays LA, and Atlanta plays Carolina down the stretch. Someone has to lose those games.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

Yes, of course. I had thought they were too far ahead.

The Vikings control their destiny. They clinch the division with a win, so to steal it from them we need to win out and hope they lose out.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

How about this?

Packers over Panthers
Rams over Seahawks
Bucs over Falcons

I know the last one isn't particularly likely, but if it happens, that's all the help the Packers would need to guarantee their spot in the playoffs, assuming they win out. They would control their own destiny.

Assume there will not be an upset in Atlanta for hypothetical purposes. Will the Falcons/Saints game matter?

 

[TouchdownPackers]

Agreed. That was stupid of me. we’ve talked a bunch about them need long to lose at least one of those 2 final games. All these scenarios got me spinning
Tell me something. I know it initially sounds crazy but Wouldn’t we want the Saints to just win out and take the Division also? So we compete with Carolina who we own the tie breaker?

That was our thinking the entire time, Twiddle. Let New Orleans win the NFCS because a win over Carolina would give us the tiebreaker. But do we really care who wins the Panthers/Falcons game if one of them is guaranteed to get in?

 

[PackAttack12]

Assume there will not be an upset in Atlanta for hypothetical purposes. Will the Falcons/Saints game matter?

That was our thinking the entire time, Twiddle. Let New Orleans win the NFCS because a win over Carolina would give us the tiebreaker. But do we really care who wins the Panthers/Falcons game if one of them is guaranteed to get in?

Well the game against the Bucs is in Tampa. If we beat Carolina, and Atlanta wins one of the next two, the Atlanta/Carolina game is a play in game. Winner gets a wild card, loser goes home. If Atlanta loses the next two, won't matter. They are out.

Only reason we would care who wins Falcons/Panthers in the event that it is a play in game is in the unlikely scenario that there would be a 5 seed v.s. 6 seed NFC championship game.

 

[OldSchool101]

Ok Thanks. I think I have this figured out now. ..
If we lose? we’re screwed

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't know about that one, captain. If the Panthers somehow steal the division, and New Orleans/Atlanta are both in the playoff mix, that's two teams from the same division that has tie breaker advantages on us. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think New Orleans winning the division works to our benefit.

You're absolutely rght, the Packers definitely want the Saints to win the division. Just discard my previous comment.

How about this?

Packers over Panthers
Rams over Seahawks
Bucs over Falcons

I know the last one isn't particularly likely, but if it happens, that's all the help the Packers would need to guarantee their spot in the playoffs, assuming they win out. They would control their own destiny.

As you noted before that's dependent on the Saints winning the NFC South though.

Assume there will not be an upset in Atlanta for hypothetical purposes. Will the Falcons/Saints game matter?

Yes, as the Packers would benefit from the Falcons losing that one.

 

[PackAttack12]

Ok Thanks. I think I have this figured out now. ..
If we lose? we’re screwed

Screwed is a bit strong. But we would need a whole lot to happen.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Screwed is a bit strong. But we would need a whole lot to happen.

True, if the Packers lose on Sunday the Falcons would have to lose all of their remaining games, the Seahawks two out of three and the Cowboys another one as well.

 

[Title Town USA]

Not disagreeing with you because I might be missing something, but if we beat Carolina and then they win out, that would put them at 11-5. That presents the possibility of them winning the division and New Orleans dropping into the wild card discussion. We don't hold the tie breaker over New Orleans. So that brings another challenge to the table.

I would be totally fine with Carolina losing in week 16.

In order for Carolina to win the division (assuming Packers beat them and win out), they would need the Saints to drop 2 more games. The Saints play the Jets, Falcons, and Bucs. I could see them winning out. I would be shocked if they lost 2 of 3.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

Screwed is a bit strong. But we would need a whole lot to happen.

I thought every playoff scenario begins with the Packers winning out. That wouldn't make screwed a strong word IMO.

 

[PackAttack12]

I thought every single scenario beings with the Packers winning out. That would not make scrweed a strong word IMO.

Unlikely, yes. But I've seen crazier happen.

 

[TouchdownPackers]

Unlikely, yes. But I've seen crazier happen.

The craziest playoff run ever was the 1996 Jaguars. This never-ending discvussion about how we can get in reminds me of that season, when Jacksonville needed to win out for seven weeks and get tons of help and it all fell into place.

 

[JP Doyal]

For me, the formula is simple. Seattle loses another game. They get removed from our radar. That then puts the focus strictly on Carolina/Atlanta. How do we snag one spot from either of those teams?

Simple. Carolina needs to lose another game besides the one this Sunday. The Falcons need to lose 2 of 3. So that means, if Atlanta loses to either Tampa or New Orleans. We are in. Why? Because in Week 17 under this scenario, it doesn't matter if it's Atlanta or Carolina that loses. The Packers are in because there is a guaranteed loss for SOMEONE out of those two. The winner of that game is in, alongside the Packers.

The most simple way to look at it though, is the Packers are in with one more Seattle loss, and one more Carolina loss in either Week 16 or 17. That's the easiest one.

To answer your question about New Orleans, yes. We want them to win out. Keeps them the hell away from us. Even though that could potentially set up a 1st round matchup of Green Bay going TO New Orleans, but step #1 is to punch our ticket to get in. Worry about the opponent later.

If they play in NO I'm going to that game for sure!

 

[TouchdownPackers]

If they play in NO I'm going to that game for sure!

I would not look that far ahead yet. If we don't win Sunday, it is not going to happen.

 

[sjb12681]

Can we all agree?

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[gonzozab]

I agreed with this two months ago.