Packers mock free agency/draft

[thequick12]

I don't think that I can bring myself to agreeing that Crosby is an average kicker

Haha dude I'm just talking about for the purposes of convincing people he should be replaced

 

[Mondio]

Tracy has never kicked in the NFL, he could be another double doink in the NFL. this is like the Rodgers and good teams debate to me. While certain stats may not be in his favor, it hardly tells the story.

Now I don't think Crosby has been one of the best kickers in the game at all, and I do think it's time to start considering his replacement, I also don't think he's been grossly overpaid either. Outside of a really bad game and a bad season, I don't remember too many times where i've been disappointed in Crosby and his kicking.

Every year teams go thru kickers like water it seems. There's always 1 or 2 or 3 teams begging for a kicker and will go thru 2-3 until they find something acceptable. maybe. There are always some that get a good young kicker and don't have to pay him much of anything. And there are others that will pay an established vet more for consistency if nothing else. It's not like we're talking about 10 million dollar differences. At the extremes we're talking about a difference of probably 4million or so? and any kicker with experience that hasn't been kicked around, we're probably talking about 1-2 million dollar differences.

and for many years we were a legit superbowl contender heading into the season. I have zero issues with the Packers sticking with what they new rather than create a potential hole at kicker. Double doinkers are rare, but losing games because of kickers is not. With the state of the team now, his increasing age and some shaky kicks recently, they should also be trying out potential replacements pretty regularly here.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Outside of a really bad game and a bad season, I don't remember too many times where i've been disappointed in Crosby and his kicking.

There have been far more occasions on which being disappointed in Crosby would have been justified.

It's not like we're talking about 10 million dollar differences. At the extremes we're talking about a difference of probably 4million or so? and any kicker with experience that hasn't been kicked around, we're probably talking about 1-2 million dollar differences.

Actually we're talking about a total of $14 million in cap space over four years if the Packers keep Crosby for the 2019 season.

 

[Mondio]

There have been far more occasions on which being disappointed in Crosby would have been justified.



Actually we're talking about a total of $14 million in cap space over four years if the Packers keep Crosby for the 2019 season.

I'm sure there have been, but overall i've been pretty satisfied with him as a kicker in this league.

and actually I'm talking about the time and compared to similar kickers with similar experience over a period of time when it looked like this team was a legit preseason super bowl favorite.

Creating a hole at kicker to save a million bucks would have been kind of silly

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm sure there have been, but overall i've been pretty satisfied with him as a kicker in this league.

In that case you should think about raising your expectations

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So, I'm confused which side are you on? You imply the Vikings made a mistake on Carlson by drafting him. Then you imply they made a mistake by releasing him after the packers game

I'm on the side of trying to have a Kicker that you can rely on, which isn't as easy as just replacing one with another. I was merely pointing out how the process can go. Vikings spend 2 picks on a kicker, he bombs and they replace him with Veteran Dan Bailey for $1,983,333. Bailey goes 21-28 (75%).

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm on the side of trying to have a Kicker that you can rely on, which isn't as easy as just replacing one with another.

Well, with Crosby you can only rely on him being below average.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Carlson was better than pretty solid with the Raiders, making 16 of 17 field goals.

I said pretty solid season, I was taking into account his 2 games and 3 misses as a Viking. You scolded me for saying Crosby had a solid season if you toss out the Detroit game, so trying to stick to your rules.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This is turning into a pretty solid average conversation.

 

[Mondio]

I've seen other teams and their kickers. I've seen better, I've seen much worse. Outside of a bad year and one of the worst games i've ever seen from anyone, There haven't been a whole lot of kicks where i was left shaking my head

It's like saying he's a bad long range kicker because he doesn't have a great average from 50 when many of his misses were in cold weather and some were not your 51 yarders they were 57+

or take a season like 2017 where he had very few kicks at all, toss in some issues with a holder and a couple missed kicks attributed to affect an average from below 80 to a few tenths below 90%.

Until you line up every kicker you want to compare him too, their longevity, the context around kicks, the overall stats don't matter much. Some guys kick for 1 year, some for 15. Some have 30 kicks, some have 15. Some kick mostly in a dome, some outside. Yes, I know opposing kickers have a better percentage at lambeau. Of course most them only have a couple kicks there compared to a career in all conditions. Until the kicks are compared side by side, they don't really matter. Kicker B was 100% becuse he kicked 3 under 40 yarders. Crosby lined up and attempted a 59 yarder at the half and missed, was 1 for 2 on the day and 50%. Significant?

Not until you get into the details. Some kickers get to work thru new snappers or special teams with an issue of blocked kicks etc. You can play with the stats however you want. A bad season and a terrible game bring his averages down compared to a couple others, but on a whole he's been pretty consistent for a long time.

 

[Stanger37]

I said pretty solid season, I was taking into account his 2 games and 3 misses as a Viking. You scolded me for saying Crosby had a solid season if you toss out the Detroit game, so trying to stick to your rules.

I originally brought up that I didn't understand why the hate for Crosby because eliminating the Lions disaster, his average would have been very high, something like 91% or something. The highest of his career. I went to ESPN and went to every game the Packers lost by 3 or less, Vikings tie, Seahawks game, and the Arizona game. Crosby had a missed FG of every one of those games. And then the Lions disaster obviously. I don't expect him to make everything, and I cannot fully say if any of those were blocked, bad snap, etc etc. But what I went on to hope prove that he wasn't a bad kicker, I found that you are more correct saying that he is average or less than average than us trying to argue that he is average or better. But those are four games that Packers could have potentially won had it been for a made FG at the end of the game, or at least tied to give them a chance to win or tie. Not guaranteed wins, and I didn't delve into how good/bad Rodgers played, Vikings game had the Clay call that ends the game. Seahawks game had terrible play calling at the end.

There are plenty of other elements missing from just looking at the box score and seeing MISSED FG and the end score being 3 or less. Maybe a stupid thing to look at, but attempting to not be an armchair FG kicker, I'd like there to not be 4 games decided by a kicker, that is 25% of the season and could make or break a season. Packers had bigger issues all year to place the blame all on Crosby and I think him helping them lose games is a big reason for the coaching change and it is all for the better. So I don't want to hate on him too much.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I originally brought up that I didn't understand why the hate for Crosby because eliminating the Lions disaster, his average would have been very high, something like 91% or something. The highest of his career. I went to ESPN and went to every game the Packers lost by 3 or less, Vikings tie, Seahawks game, and the Arizona game. Crosby had a missed FG of every one of those games. And then the Lions disaster obviously. I don't expect him to make everything, and I cannot fully say if any of those were blocked, bad snap, etc etc. But what I went on to hope prove that he wasn't a bad kicker, I found that you are more correct saying that he is average or less than average than us trying to argue that he is average or better. But those are four games that Packers could have potentially won had it been for a made FG at the end of the game, or at least tied to give them a chance to win or tie. Not guaranteed wins, and I didn't delve into how good/bad Rodgers played, Vikings game had the Clay call that ends the game. Seahawks game had terrible play calling at the end.

There are plenty of other elements missing from just looking at the box score and seeing MISSED FG and the end score being 3 or less. Maybe a stupid thing to look at, but attempting to not be an armchair FG kicker, I'd like there to not be 4 games decided by a kicker, that is 25% of the season and could make or break a season. Packers had bigger issues all year to place the blame all on Crosby and I think him helping them lose games is a big reason for the coaching change and it is all for the better. So I don't want to hate on him too much.

To be fair in that process, you would also have to flip that coin and look at the games over the years that the Packers won by the margin of all FG's/XP's made.

Also, we will never know if another kicker would have made/missed those same misses/makes.

 

[OldSchool101]

This might be more from an actuary perspective, but also in keeping with the times.

We all know that FG Kickers produce more points than any other position in the league. Just a thought but I would love to know how many teams annually remove themselves from the playoffs because their Kicker is in that “average” statistical range or worse. (We’ll call it 12th-21st+range). Many games are decided by 3 points or fewer and it only takes a couple of missed FG (or extra points) attempts in several games to change the dynamics of a season.

That doesn’t even take into account the teams that choose to go for it on 4th down because their Kicker doesn’t have the reliability factor past 45+ yards and the recent rules changes that are afforded to opponents starting from the spot of said kick on failed attempts.

Then we can start analyzing how many playoff games are directly decided by a failed FG attempt in the closing minutes. In addition the FG % of the winning or losing teams in a playoff game should be strictly considered. Then there’s the monetary aspect of lost Capital to boot. (No pun)

While maybe not the most exciting position on its face. The debate on FG kickers doesn’t get near the attention it should in my opinion. I’m glad to see a good discussion on it here though.

Teams may do this IDK. But I’d have a program with values set on every possible variable (including salary Cap) and put it into a a program to show my Kickers “Value” score in comparison to those around the league. My best guess is this and it’s only a hypothesis. Anytime I have double digit draft picks in a season I’m picking a K late day 3 unless my Kicker is Probowl level or thereabouts. I don’t think that’s far fetched whatsoever considering how they impact the game and it’s possible the position value is more often undervalued by all of us to some degree

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I said pretty solid season, I was taking into account his 2 games and 3 misses as a Viking. You scolded me for saying Crosby had a solid season if you toss out the Detroit game, so trying to stick to your rules.

That's why I mentioned Carlson performed better than solid for the Raiders, I didn't talk about his short tenure with the Vikings.

It's like saying he's a bad long range kicker because he doesn't have a great average from 50 when many of his misses were in cold weather and some were not your 51 yarders they were 57+

Just to be clear, Crosby has tried a total of only three field goals from more than 57 yards during his career. In addition he doesn't have a great average from any distance, no matter however you want to choose the parameters.

Yes, I know opposing kickers have a better percentage at lambeau. Of course most them only have a couple kicks there compared to a career in all conditions. Until the kicks are compared side by side, they don't really matter. Kicker B was 100% becuse he kicked 3 under 40 yarders. Crosby lined up and attempted a 59 yarder at the half and missed, was 1 for 2 on the day and 50%. Significant?

Crosby having made only 80.7% of his field goals at home on 192 attempts since 2007 compared to opposing kickers combining to hit on 82.1% of their attempts at Lambeau over the same period on 156 kicks is a pretty large sample size though.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

While I would like the Packers to move on from Crosby, taking a look at the situation in Chicago it's fair to say the Bears BLEW IT

https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-ink-former-pitt-kicker-chris-blewitt

 

[Mondio]

I saw that Chicago kicker try out, my friend who's a big Bears fan said he'll fit perfectly with that last name on their team LOL

and I never meant to imply Crosby regularly lined up to kick 57 yard FG's, but there was a time when they used a poor 50+ FG percentage against him and a bunch of his misses were something like a block, a bad snap, and a 57 or 59 yarder or off a cold field in NOvember or later outdoors. Stats don't always give the picture.

Just like 2017 i looked up where he only kicked less than 20 kicks and had a few misses that were bad snaps or blocked and if you took those out his percentage went from under 80 to 90%.

and 156 kicks is a large sample size, but Crosby has another season or 2 worth of kicks comparatively. and what were the cirucumstances? did opposing teams punt or go for it more often later in the season than line up for a 48 yard FG? We know MM would trot Crosby out there in November for a 50+ without much hesitation. Significant or not? I don't know. I'm not going to go thru and check every game for the past 11 years. All I know is outside of a season that was bad and a really bad game, Crosby seems to be a pretty consistent kicker.

and we will go round and round, so let's just agree it's time in his career to start looking for a replacement. maybe it's not this year, but for sure by next. I'm ok whenever they do it. And I hope a guy name BlewIT is the Bears new kicker and he lives up to the billing.

 

[thequick12]

Tracy has never kicked in the NFL, he could be another double doink in the NFL. this is like the Rodgers and good teams debate to me. While certain stats may not be in his favor, it hardly tells the story.

Now I don't think Crosby has been one of the best kickers in the game at all, and I do think it's time to start considering his replacement, I also don't think he's been grossly overpaid either. Outside of a really bad game and a bad season, I don't remember too many times where i've been disappointed in Crosby and his kicking.

Every year teams go thru kickers like water it seems. There's always 1 or 2 or 3 teams begging for a kicker and will go thru 2-3 until they find something acceptable. maybe. There are always some that get a good young kicker and don't have to pay him much of anything. And there are others that will pay an established vet more for consistency if nothing else. It's not like we're talking about 10 million dollar differences. At the extremes we're talking about a difference of probably 4million or so? and any kicker with experience that hasn't been kicked around, we're probably talking about 1-2 million dollar differences.

and for many years we were a legit superbowl contender heading into the season. I have zero issues with the Packers sticking with what they new rather than create a potential hole at kicker. Double doinkers are rare, but losing games because of kickers is not. With the state of the team now, his increasing age and some shaky kicks recently, they should also be trying out potential replacements pretty regularly here.

It's just that nobody pays attention to kicker stats Crosby has been below average far more of his career than he has been above average.

And even if I only save 1-2 million for the same product I'd like to do so

 

[Deleted member 6794]

and we will go round and round, so let's just agree it's time in his career to start looking for a replacement. maybe it's not this year, but for sure by next.

You're right that we won't agree on Crosby's performance so moving on might be smart. In my opinion it was time to look for his replacement three years ago though with it being long overdue at this point.

 

[thequick12]

Just did this mock I kinda like it need really lined up with value here. Took some guys for the first time in all of these mocks I've done

12 Montez Sweat lb
30 TJ Hockenson te
44 Chauncey Gardner Johnson s
75 Garrett Bradbury ol
114 Amani Hooker s
118 Justice Hill rb
150 Josh Oliver te
185 Penny Hart wr
194 Jordan Brailford lb
226 Marquise Blair s

Get 2 athletic edge rushers 1 elite, 2 athletic tes 1 of them complete and elite, 3 athletic safeties, 1 elite ol, 1 explosive rb, 1 explosive slot wr,

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Just did this mock I kinda like it need really lined up with value here. Took some guys for the first time in all of these mocks I've done

12 Montez Sweat lb
30 TJ Hockenson te
44 Chauncey Gardner Johnson s
75 Garrett Bradbury ol
114 Amani Hooker s
118 Justice Hill rb
150 Josh Oliver te
185 Penny Hart wr
194 Jordan Brailford lb
226 Marquise Blair s

Get 2 athletic edge rushers 1 elite, 2 athletic tes 1 of them complete and elite, 3 athletic safeties, 1 elite ol, 1 explosive rb, 1 explosive slot wr,

What??? Wait!!!! No Kicker?

 

[Mondio]

It's just that nobody pays attention to kicker stats Crosby has been below average far more of his career than he has been above average.

And even if I only save 1-2 million for the same product I'd like to do so

if it's just about saving 1-2 million and getting the same production sure. But that's not the only possibility. Maybe we get double doink and miss the playoffs. Maybe he misses the kick in dallas. Maybe we're scrambling and go thru 4 kickers in one year after dropping 3 games because of kickers. I'd gladly take 2 million in savings for the same production.

and I don't pay attention to kicker stats much. I don't pay much attention to anybody's stats They're interesting, but i'd rather watch games. and i've seen a lot of kickers on a lot of teams. Some better, and some much worse. whatever the stats say, there haven't been that many times where Crosby left me feeling like he wasn't doing his job. 1 season and 1 game is about it. For the rest of his career he seems to have made most kicks I though he should have made and when a a couple bad snaps can drop a kicker from an absolute "elite" percentage of 90% to below 80 you should be able to understand why I don't think stats tell the whole picture.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While I would like the Packers to move on from Crosby, taking a look at the situation in Chicago it's fair to say the Bears BLEW IT

https://www.chicagobears.com/news/bears-ink-former-pitt-kicker-chris-blewitt

Odd, the guy last played organized football in 2016. But I guess a kicker can pretty much stay in shape and kick on his own. For his and the Bears sake, he will have to improve over his final 2 years at Pitt, he was 25 of 40 during that span. (63%).

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Maybe he misses the kick in dallas. Maybe we're scrambling and go thru 4 kickers in one year after dropping 3 games because of kickers.

The Packers didn't win three games last season in large part because Crosby either missed five kicks or one at the end of regulation.

The Dallas game in the playoffs was most likely the best of his career. Unfortunately a lot of fans think he's an elite kicker solely based on that one.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Odd, the guy last played organized football in 2016. But I guess a kicker can pretty much stay in shape and kick on his own. For his and the Bears sake, he will have to improve over his final 2 years at Pitt, he was 25 of 40 during that span. (63%).

The Bears signed another kicker in Redmond Jones this offseason to compete for winning the job.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Bears signed another kicker in Redmond Jones this offseason to compete for winning the job.

I saw that and wouldn't surprise me if they bring in an UDFA either. For the Packers sake, I hope they end up with another Pankey. Who knows, Mason Crosby could be kicking for them next season.