Packers mock free agency/draft

[PackAttack12]

I'd be okay with 11 quarterbacks being taken with the first 11 picks of the 2019 draft.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'd be okay with 11 quarterbacks being taken with the first 11 picks of the 2019 draft.

Let's not get silly....6 QB's, 3 CB's, a kicker and a punter.

 

[C-Lee]

- Pony up for ET3
- Sign Houston
- Draft Burns
- See if Hock/Fant is at 30
- Roll the dice on Polite at 44.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

- Pony up for ET3
- Sign Houston
- Draft Burns
- See if Hock/Fant is at 30
- Roll the dice on Polite at 44.

Sounds like conflicting news out of KC this afternoon Houston has been released and Houston has not been released LOL. So he may be a possibility for the Packers. New Packer Linebacker coach Mike Smith, who used to coach Houston, should have a good feel for his value and fit.

https://thespun.com/football/the-chiefs-have-reportedly-made-a-decision-on-justin-houston

https://www.kmbc.com/article/report-chiefs-release-justin-houston/26632365

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

All those hoping to sign one of these guys, as excpected, they were all franchise tagged today:

DE DeMarcus Lawrence, Dallas Cowboys

DE Jadeveon Clowney, Houston Texans

DE Frank Clark, Seattle Seahawks

Chiefs will probably do the same with Dee Ford and that will leave Trey Flowers as probably the top DE prospect.

 

[LambeauLombardi]

Crosby wasn't great from 2013-16 but average, ranking 15th out of 32 qualifying kickers over that period.

Link/evidence?

 

[GreenNGold_81]

There's a decent chance an undrafted kicker would present an upgrade over Crosby for significantly less money though.

I'd fully expect them to bring in camp competition. Cut Crosby if he can't beat them in camp. Cutting him to save 4 mill now would be very poor planning.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If Crosby is cut before the March 15th deadline, the savings for the Packers is $3.6 M. However, keep in mind they still have to pay a kicker. Currently, the average salary for a kicker is $2,017,859. If you want to get by on the cheap, an UDFA would cost around a half a million.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's not love, it's business.

Not everyone is going to agree with you all the time. If they did, you'd be bored.

While I don't mind other posters disagreeing with me it's a fact that Crosby has been a below average kicker for most of his career. Yet the majority of Packers fans aren't able to grasp it for some random reason.

I think calling him "below average" based on one stat, FG %, isn't really looking at the big picture. What distance were all his kicks made and missed from? Were any misses a result of a bad snap, bad hold, blocked due to offensive line, field/weather conditions, situation of the kick, etc.

I have provided a lot of numbers supporting my claim about Crosby using a variety of different parameters over the past three years while not a single poster has been able to come forward and provide some facts about him deserving to be paid like one of the best kickers in the league. There's no rational reason to hold on to Crosby.

I would also say using the term "elite money" is a bit misleading. Currently he is the 6th highest paid kicker (pay/year) and that will probably change with new salaries.

The five kickers currently earning more money on average than Crosby have combined to make 89.6% of their field goals compared to Mason's 82.6% over the past three seasons though.

As far as using a 3 year window to see how successful UDFA rookie kickers have been in comparison to Crosby, that would be a stat I wouldn't rely on if I was making the decision. I would want to look at how that has worked out over the last 30 or so years for teams.

Eight of the 10 (16 of 20, 23 of 30... I think you get the picture) most accurate kickers over the past 30 years went undrafted

I also have questions as to how many of those other kickers were kicking outside in a northern climate, and how many were working with a rookie holder and long-snapper.

Not making excuses - But those are valid questions.

Feel free to figure out those numbers. I guarantee they won't support Crosby being an above average kicker though.

I'm all about saving money, but I ask myself over and over, in the grand scheme of things, what will saving $2-3M on their kicker do for the Packers?

The Packers could have saved a total of $14 million of cap space by replacing Crosby with a rookie back in 2016.

At the risk of sounding like a crazy person, it seemed his stats have gone down and I didn't look at the league across the board as a whole. But is it possible moving the XP back has affected some kickers? I believe it was Colin when they first moved it back said he believes it will affect the game because kickers have a handful of people on their 'team' kicker punter holder snapper. They mind their own business 95% of the game for the most part and then are expected to come in and kick a FG. Now, it what they get paid to do so I don't mean it like they're playing with their thumbs and dumbfounded when they get their number called. But after moving the XP back, you don't get that easy chip in any more to see go in. Now you come in "cold" and have to kick a 33yd FG, missing one of those could hurt your confidence moving forward. I'd expect it to be similar to golf and making some 3-5ft putts, build your confidence up and feel better standing over the 10-20ft putts and so on. Now again, you are getting paid millions of dollars to kick a FG, it is your job so I expect you to go out there and perform.

Kickers have combined to make 84.4% of field goals since the league moved back the extra point in 2015 compared to 84.3% the previous four years. So I guess it didn't have any effect on their overall performance on field goals.

All those hoping to sign one of these guys, as excpected, they were all franchise tagged today:

DE DeMarcus Lawrence, Dallas Cowboys

DE Jadeveon Clowney, Houston Texans

DE Frank Clark, Seattle Seahawks

Chiefs will probably do the same with Dee Ford and that will leave Trey Flowers as probably the top DE prospect.

While the Chiefs tagged Ford it seems they might be interested in trading him.

Link/evidence?

http://pfref.com/tiny/B68bP

 

[Curly Calhoun]

While I don't mind other posters disagreeing with me it's a fact that Crosby has been a below average kicker for most of his career. Yet the majority of Packers fans aren't able to grasp it for some random reason.

Perhaps we're all not as smart as you think you are.....

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Perhaps we're all not as smart as you think you are.....

That seems to be a reasonable explanation

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I have provided a lot of numbers supporting my claim about Crosby using a variety of different parameters over the past three years while not a single poster has been able to come forward and provide some facts about him deserving to be paid like one of the best kickers in the league. There's no rational reason to hold on to Crosby.

http://pfref.com/tiny/B68bP



The five kickers currently earning more money on average than Crosby have combined to make 89.6% of their field goals compared to Mason's 82.6% over the past three seasons though.



Eight of the 10 (16 of 20, 23 of 30... I think you get the picture) most accurate kickers over the past 30 years went undrafted



Feel free to figure out those numbers. I guarantee they won't support Crosby being an above average kicker though.


The Packers could have saved a total of $14 million of cap space by replacing Crosby with a rookie back in 2016.

Interesting list you provided:

http://pfref.com/tiny/B68bP

Maybe I am missing something with the list, but if you look at it, not one of the guys ahead of Crosby in FG kicking% were UDFA's during this 3 year window you are talking about that we should have dumped Crosby and just gone with an UDFA Rookie. So where did the Packers go wrong? What rookie UDFA should they have signed?

I also have to ask, are you basing your ranking of kickers strictly on their FG's made %?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Interesting list you provided:

http://pfref.com/tiny/B68bP

Maybe I am missing something with the list, but if you look at it, not one of the guys ahead of Crosby in FG kicking% were UDFA's during this 3 year window you are talking about that we should have dumped Crosby and just gone with an UDFA Rookie. So where did the Packers go wrong? What rookie UDFA should they have signed?

I also have to ask, are you basing your ranking of kickers strictly on their FG's made %?

First of all, the list I linked to above is a different one than we've been discussing about considering undrafted kickers since 2016. In addition you realize that 11 of the 14 kickers ahead of Crosby in that one entered the league as undrafted rookies at some point though, don't you???

Of course I'm basing the kickers ranking solely based on field goal percentage, it's a pretty straight forward metric for the position.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

First of all, the list I linked to above is a different one than we've been discussing about considering undrafted kickers since 2016. In addition you realize that 11 of the 14 kickers ahead of Crosby in that one entered the league as undrafted rookies at some point though, don't you???

Of course I realize that most kickers enter the league as UDFA's. However, the list you provided shows guys that have mostly been in the league just as long as Crosby. Not one of them was an UDFA rookie during this time frame of when you are saying we should have dumped Crosby and signed a rookie UDFA. That would be the more important list to look at.....who should the Packers have replaced Crosby with? I think you are making the assumption that signing an UDFA rookie is an automatic improvement over Crosby, I just happen to disagree with you. I think you are correct though, an UDFA could outperform Crosby and be a cheaper option, but in no way is it a surety.

Of course I'm basing the kickers ranking solely based on field goal percentage, it's a pretty straight forward metric for the position.

So you don't look at XP %? Distance of made and missed. Situational makes and misses? Kickoffs? Again, I think only looking at FG %, where one bad snap can move you down 2-3 spots on the list that season, is a bit short sighted.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Of course I realize that most kickers enter the league as UDFA's. However, the list you provided shows guys that have mostly been in the league just as long as Crosby. Not one of them was an UDFA rookie during this time frame of when you are saying we should have dumped Crosby and signed a rookie UDFA. That would be the more important list to look at.....who should the Packers have replaced Crosby with? I think you are making the assumption that signing an UDFA rookie is an automatic improvement over Crosby, I just happen to disagree with you.

Just to be clear, I said the Packers should have replaced Crosby with an undrafted rookie in 2016. In that case you might want to take a look at this list with Lutz, Rosas and Fairbairn being ranked ahead of Crosby.

http://pfref.com/tiny/KounK

So you don't look at XP %? Distance of made and missed. Situational makes and misses? Kickoffs? Again, I think only looking at FG %, where one bad snap can move you down 2-3 spots on the list that season, is a bit short sighted.

Once again, I have posted a ton of numbers over the past three years analyzing Crosby's performance in various situations and there's no way around him not even being an average kicker. It's extremely short sighted to ignore that just because you like him.

 

[OldSchool101]

The problem being that Crosby isn't a good kicker though. The Packers finally have to stop holding on to veterans not performing up to their contracts.

Heck. That’s more than half of our team. We’d have to start OTAs with about 18 guys. I guess we could do some 9 on 9 drills.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Heck. That’s more than half of our team. We’d have to start OTAs with about 18 guys

While I'm aware that you're exaggerating the Packers have done that too often with too many players in the past.

 

[PackAttack12]

Once again, I have posted a ton of numbers over the past three years analyzing Crosby's performance in various situations and there's no way around him not even being an average kicker. It's extremely short sighted to ignore that just because you like him.

If you'd tell me that Crosby would make field goals in the playoffs at the clip he's been making them for the past 8 seasons I would have no problem continuing to pay him what he's making now, though.

I agree with you that all things considered, the money could be much better spent. And that he's no where near what many make him out to be. But it's tough to argue with the kicks he's made in the biggest moments in the past 8 years.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If you'd tell me that Crosby would make field goals in the playoffs at the clip he's been making them for the past 8 seasons I would have no problem continuing to pay him what he's making now, though.

I agree with you that all things considered, the money could be much better spent. And that he's no where near what many make him out to be. But it's tough to argue with the kicks he's made in the biggest moments in the past 8 years.

There's no denying Crosby has been awesome in the playoffs. You have to realize that only 12 of the 20 field goals he has made in the playoff since 2011 have come from 35 yards or less.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Just to be clear, I said the Packers should have replaced Crosby with an undrafted rookie in 2016. In that case you might want to take a look at this list with Lutz, Rosas and Fairbairn being ranked ahead of Crosby.

http://pfref.com/tiny/KounK



Once again, I have posted a ton of numbers over the past three years analyzing Crosby's performance in various situations and there's no way around him not even being an average kicker. It's extremely short sighted to ignore that just because you like him.

Lutz, Rosas and Fairbairn. Of the 3, Fairbairn is the only one who is with the team that originally signed him as an UDFA. Lutz is the only one who has even attempted a FG in a playoff. Do you have a list of all the UDFA kickers that either haven't performed better than Crosby or haven't even made a team?

What about John Lunsford, Marshall Koehn, Jaden Oberkrom, Brad Craddock? Those were UDFA kickers signed by other teams in 2016. None of who are currently kicking in the NFL.

I don't even know Mason Crosby, so my opinion has nothing to do with "liking him". What I do like is having a kicker that for the most part has shown that you can rely on him in the clutch. More importantly, what I don't want to see is the situation we have seen many other teams in, having to go through 2-3 kickers to try and find the right one.

Mason Crosby has kicked in 18 playoff games. Has never missed an XP in one (59/59) and is 89.7% on FG's (26/29). His 3 misses were from 54, 50 and 41.

I realize you want to just compare salary with FG% and if that is the case, you are correct, the Packers could potentially find a better option with an UDFA.

If nothing else, the first list you provided me with reaffirmed my opinion, that there is something to be said about veteran kickers. They have been in the league a long time and worked through the mind games that kickers have to work through to keep kicking successfully. While I agree with you that Crosby's FG% isn't as high as some of the kickers on your list, I would contend for the most part he has been a reliable kicker and one I would want kicking for me with a playoff game on the line.

Nothing wrong with bringing in a kicker to compete for the job, if he beats Crosby out and we have a better kicker....awesome! But lets not pretend that its as easy as signing an UDFA and you have an instant upgrade at a reduced cost.

 

[PackAttack12]

There's no denying Crosby has been awesome in the playoffs. You have to realize that only 12 of the 20 field goals he has made in the playoff since 2011 have come from 35 yards or less.

Now this is nitpicking and you know it.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There's no denying Crosby has been awesome in the playoffs. You have to realize that only 12 of the 20 field goals he has made in the playoff since 2011 have come from 35 yards or less.

LOL....come on man..... I thought you just wanted to look at FG% made? So now you are saying other things matter?

 

[PackAttack12]

LOL....come on man..... I thought you just wanted to look at FG% made? So now you are saying other things matter?

I left that part for you.

 

[Stanger37]

Some of these mock drafts are all over the place. But whatever, I like it. Gives you something to read about while there is nothing else going on right now.

 

[tynimiller]

I will say something now so it is on record If Devin White is still there at #12 and we pass on him it better be because we got an incredibly trade offer OR someone else fell into our laps. I believe he is gonna be a STUD