Packers 2021 salary cap plan

[Heyjoe4]

The latest projection on the cap is apprx. 180 million which leaves the Packers apprx. 20 million over the cap for 2021.

First things first they're gonna have to release some good players...

Preston Smith - you'd love to keep him but by releasing him as a post June 1st cut you can save 12 m in 2021 while adding 4 m to the 2022 cap. You're now 8 m over the cap.

Christian Kirksey - Packers need to finally bring in a true play maker preferably 2 at ilb. We all saw what devin white and Lavonte David meant to the bucs defense...5.6 m saved you're now 2.4 m over the cap.

Dean Lowry - he'd have been a decent backup but he's just not a starter and now a cheaper younger rotational piece should be located in the draft...3.3 m saved you're now .7 million under the cap.

Rick Wagner - this is a tough one because Wagner played really well in spots and fought thru multiple injuries but this is another position that needs a young up coming player hopefully drafted in the first 4 rounds...4.5 m saved you're now 5.2 m under the cap.

Devin Funchess - no need to spend any cap on a guy who adds nothing Lazard and st brown don't already bring to the table. Have to draft one high...1.27 m saved you're now 6.47 m under the cap.

Josh Jackson - if he's not viewed as a player by the front office, he should be gone. As it's clear the previous defensive coordinator had given up on him. Have to draft one high...1.33 m saved you're now 7.8 m under the cap

Now you've got your draft class + covered. From here you can restructure Rodgers, extend adams etc as needed to sign guys like a.jones, watt, or allen robinson or trade for a guy like julio jones. And fill out the roster and practice squad

Nice analysis, thanks. If Jones goes, is there any way to keep Linsley? I like the idea of trading for Jones, but it's likely to be draft picks. The Packers need to push any chips they have to the middle as it's now or never.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

In fact Brady did took a paycut in 2013 being 36 he signed a 3 year extension only worth 27M average 9M per, QBs were making around 20M back there.

Is there any reason you ignored the $30 million signing bonus Brady received in 2013 while restructuring his contract???

 

[sschind]

The latest projection on the cap is apprx. 180 million which leaves the Packers apprx. 20 million over the cap for 2021.

First things first they're gonna have to release some good players...

Preston Smith - you'd love to keep him but by releasing him as a post June 1st cut you can save 12 m in 2021 while adding 4 m to the 2022 cap. You're now 8 m over the cap.

Christian Kirksey - Packers need to finally bring in a true play maker preferably 2 at ilb. We all saw what devin white and Lavonte David meant to the bucs defense...5.6 m saved you're now 2.4 m over the cap.

Dean Lowry - he'd have been a decent backup but he's just not a starter and now a cheaper younger rotational piece should be located in the draft...3.3 m saved you're now .7 million under the cap.

Rick Wagner - this is a tough one because Wagner played really well in spots and fought thru multiple injuries but this is another position that needs a young up coming player hopefully drafted in the first 4 rounds...4.5 m saved you're now 5.2 m under the cap.

Devin Funchess - no need to spend any cap on a guy who adds nothing Lazard and st brown don't already bring to the table. Have to draft one high...1.27 m saved you're now 6.47 m under the cap.

Josh Jackson - if he's not viewed as a player by the front office, he should be gone. As it's clear the previous defensive coordinator had given up on him. Have to draft one high...1.33 m saved you're now 7.8 m under the cap

Now you've got your draft class + covered. From here you can restructure Rodgers, extend adams etc as needed to sign guys like a.jones, watt, or allen robinson or trade for a guy like julio jones. And fill out the roster and practice squad

I'm not arguing against your numbers but its not quite that simple. Right now those players are included in the 37 that the Packers have under contract. If you cut them now you need to replace 6 more guys. You can't simply cut them and use the money saved to sign a FA (whether resigning Jones or signing Watt or whatever) because you still would need some of that money to replace 5 guys on your roster. If you want you could go cheap and replace them with minimum salary guys but what does that get you in terms of talent and what does it do to your depth. You might save 4.5 million by cutting Wagner but are you going to replace what he brings to the team with a 4th round rookie or are you going to have to spend maybe half of that 4.5 to bring in someone who give you at least some of the talent he has. I'm sure with some guys you might get by with it but I don't think you are going to replace what Preston Smith brings with a vet minimum type of guy. If you are lucky you might replace him with a younger FA talent that you can get for maybe 4-5 million. If you plan on replacing them with rookies you had better plan on a drop of of talent for a year or two before they develop especially if you replace them with day 3 guys.

I'm not saying you don't cut these guys for cap savings and it sure is nice to look at all that extra money you would have by doing so, I'm just saying the actual savings may not be as much as you think especially if you wan to replace them with guys with more than the minimum talent level.

 

[thequick12]

I'm not arguing against your numbers but its not quite that simple. Right now those players are included in the 37 that the Packers have under contract. If you cut them now you need to replace 6 more guys. You can't simply cut them and use the money saved to sign a FA (whether resigning Jones or signing Watt or whatever) because you still would need some of that money to replace 5 guys on your roster. If you want you could go cheap and replace them with minimum salary guys but what does that get you in terms of talent and what does it do to your depth. You might save 4.5 million by cutting Wagner but are you going to replace what he brings to the team with a 4th round rookie or are you going to have to spend maybe half of that 4.5 to bring in someone who give you at least some of the talent he has. I'm sure with some guys you might get by with it but I don't think you are going to replace what Preston Smith brings with a vet minimum type of guy. If you are lucky you might replace him with a younger FA talent that you can get for maybe 4-5 million. If you plan on replacing them with rookies you had better plan on a drop of of talent for a year or two before they develop especially if you replace them with day 3 guys.

I'm not saying you don't cut these guys for cap savings and it sure is nice to look at all that extra money you would have by doing so, I'm just saying the actual savings may not be as much as you think especially if you wan to replace them with guys with more than the minimum talent level.

I think the main point in all of this is, with the tv deal coming real soon, it's a one year anomly as far as the cap goes. In 2022 it will likely have it's biggest jump ever...

And yeah I get that about the replacing the guys you cut. You might have to have a couple more undrafted guys or veteran minimum ring chasers to fill out your roster but I think it's better to aquire and keep as many difference makers as you can

 

[thequick12]

Nice analysis, thanks. If Jones goes, is there any way to keep Linsley? I like the idea of trading for Jones, but it's likely to be draft picks. The Packers need to push any chips they have to the middle as it's now or never.

Yeah they can definitely keep linsley if they let jones walk they're likely to recieve similar money

 

[thequick12]

One avenue to clear space that understandably won't be popular would be trading Za'Darius Smith. Doing so would clear 11.5M in space, and should net great draft capital in return. At 28, the acquiring team would get him at basically 10 and 14M for two more seasons, which is a bargain at the level of his performance the last two years.

I am just not confident that he will ever be as good again as he was in Pettine's system when he was given so many interior rush snaps. If you look around the league, it is not at all typical for reducing interior rushers are as productive as Z is, and I think the reason is that most defenses won't give guys like him so many snaps inside.

I could be totally wrong about that. I don't know what Barry will do, and I'm not saying that trading him is a must by any stretch. If he stays, I'm sure he will be a positive for the defense. But I also tend to think he's peaked.

So if the Dolphins called up and offered pick #36, and the Packers could take that selection plus 11.5M in cap savings, and maybe add J.J. Watt... I think there are ways that they can shuffle the deck here without getting worse.

I think you are really underestimating z. smith, he was the 2nd most double teamed player in the league in 2020

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

BOLD PREDICTION: We keep almost everybody, save for maybe Linsley and possibly Wagner.

The NFL sent a letter out to all teams that the $180M cap was the FLOOR....meaning the eventual salary cap will be higher. My guess? $195M, putting the Packers only $5M over the cap.

You think Rodgers wouldn't take a new deal that pays him more and allows the Packers more flexibility in the immediate future to go get Watt or another playmaker? I'll take the odds he does.

 

[Dantés]

I think you are really underestimating z. smith, he was the 2nd most double teamed player in the league in 2020

I don’t underestimate him. He’s awesome when you can use him in a manner that best fits his skills. But that’s also why they could get good return for him, if they were inclined to do so.

I’m dubious of that metric and how they judged a double team.

 

[PackerDNA]

I'm hard and firm in the all-in camp. Go for it with Rodgers now, when he's gone it's not going to matter we're likely going to take a few steps back.

 

[Mexican Packer]

Is there any reason you ignored the $30 million signing bonus Brady received in 2013 while restructuring his contract???

Cause it's irrelevant he took a pay cut and he got all his money guarantee, meaning he got a fat pay check first year
But after that his cap hit for the next 5 years was under 15M, truly unique contact in the NFL

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think the main point in all of this is, with the tv deal coming real soon, it's a one year anomly as far as the cap goes.

Nevertheless teams will need to get under a reduced cap in 2021. It's possible to push cap hits into future years to make it work though.

You think Rodgers wouldn't take a new deal that pays him more and allows the Packers more flexibility in the immediate future to go get Watt or another playmaker? I'll take the odds he does.

The Packers don't need to offer Rodgers more money but solely convert his base salary and roster bonus into a signing bonus saving more than $16 million in cap space for next season.

Cause it's irrelevant he took a pay cut and he got all his money guarantee, meaning he got a fat pay check first year
But after that his cap hit for the next 5 years was under 15M, truly unique contact in the NFL

Brady getting a $30 million signing bonus to restructure his deal in 2013 is definitely not irrelevant. While that resulted in a reduced cap hit the contract he agreed to was actually a 3-year, $57 million deal.

It's pretty obvious that fans who don't understand the details about the salary cap have been responsible for the wrong impression that Brady has taken less money to guarantee the Patriots stay competitive for all those years when in fact they were just smarter handling the cap than most teams in that regard as well.

 

[sschind]

Cause it's irrelevant he took a pay cut and he got all his money guarantee, meaning he got a fat pay check first year
But after that his cap hit for the next 5 years was under 15M, truly unique contact in the NFL

So if your job cut you from 25.00 an hour to 20.00 and hour but gives you an extra 30 million up front you are going to tell everyone you took a pay cut even though you made more money. Brady may have taken a smaller salary than he was originally scheduled to make but he made more money and that is not a pay cut. You have to look at all compensation not just salary. Its not a pay cut when you make more than what you did before.

 

[PackAttack12]

The Packers have just released Kirksey and Wagner. Apparently Wagner is mulling retirement.

 

[mradtke66]

The Packers have just released Kirksey and Wagner. Apparently Wagner is mulling retirement.

It honestly surprised me, I presumed we more or less needed him with Bhak's early season status questionable.

Though retirement makes that an easier decision.

 

[ARPackFan]

The Packers have just released Kirksey and Wagner. Apparently Wagner is mulling retirement.

$10M net cap reduction and $3.75 dead money according to Spotrac "Manage Roster" function. Looks like about $10M more to be at $180M

 

[thequick12]

I agree with much of this but I don't think the team can cut Jackson. I mean, that would leave, what, 3 corners under contract for the team? Yes, he's been disappointing but at least he knows the basics of the position. You cut Jackson then you're forced to draft/sign at least another 3-4 corners and that's a big ask. The savings for cutting him probably aren't going to be enough to get you a better player. Maybe the next DC can figure out a way to make him effective. Doubtful I know, but it's not like the team has a lot of other options currently on the roster. I also don't think cutting Wagner is a certainty, he's not amazing but he's certainly worth $4.5m.

I'm saying only cut Jackson if he's been given up on. Wimm informed me not long ago that he didn't get any snaps on defense after week 10 or something crazy

I don’t underestimate him. He’s awesome when you can use him in a manner that best fits his skills. But that’s also why they could get good return for him, if they were inclined to do so.

I’m dubious of that metric and how they judged a double team.

Well JJ Watt was 1 Z.Smith 2 and Myles Garrett 3 so whatever the metric it seems it's probably pretty right on.

And I get you could get something for him but trading him would seriously derail chances of winning Superbowl

 

[thequick12]

$10M net cap reduction and $3.75 dead money according to Spotrac "Manage Roster" function. Looks like about $10M more to be at $180M

Yep that's 2 of the dominos...gonna be fun to see who they resign, who they trade for, who they get in free agency. To finally see the Packers go all in with a future hall of fame qb smh about fckn time

 

[Dantés]

I'm saying only cut Jackson if he's been given up on. Wimm informed me not long ago that he didn't get any snaps on defense after week 10 or something crazy

Well JJ Watt was 1 Z.Smith 2 and Myles Garrett 3 so whatever the metric it seems it's probably pretty right on.

And I get you could get something for him but trading him would seriously derail chances of winning Superbowl

Watt and Garrett make sense to me. Z does not. But never mind.

I realize merely deducting him from this roster would hurt the team. The idea is not to just trade him and then do nothing.

And of course, I don’t deny that the best idea could be to just keep him.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

To finally see the Packers go all in with a future hall of fame qb smh about fckn time

The Packers releasing Kirksey and Wagner isn't an indication on them going all-in but should be deemed as necessary moves to get under the cap.

 

[thequick12]

BOLD PREDICTION: We keep almost everybody, save for maybe Linsley and possibly Wagner.

The NFL sent a letter out to all teams that the $180M cap was the FLOOR....meaning the eventual salary cap will be higher. My guess? $195M, putting the Packers only $5M over the cap.

You think Rodgers wouldn't take a new deal that pays him more and allows the Packers more flexibility in the immediate future to go get Watt or another playmaker? I'll take the odds he does.

Yeah I disagree that they keeping all these guys but I agree about a new contract for Rodgers and more likely Adams and then getting another real wr and watt. I think it's very realistic. The cap can be manipulated.

The main reason I replied to this is I don't think the cap is gonna be 195 m. But I just read an article that yes 180.5 m is the lowest it'll be. Most gms are apparently operating as if the cap will end up at 184.5 m. Some think 188m and the very optimistic minority is predicting 190m.

If it ends up at 188 m that's a decrease of 10 m certainly significant but a long long way from the 23 m drop to 175 m that was intially feared

 

[thequick12]

The Packers releasing Kirksey and Wagner isn't an indication on them going all-in but should be deemed as necessary moves to get under the cap.

You'll see...gute has already indicated they gone make some moves.

Edit: Here's a quote for when you say no he didn't.

"I think we're going to have to do that this year for sure, " Gutekunst said recently. "I think the situation our football team is in right now, we have one goal in mind. If there's an opportunity to take some risk to help us win now, were certainly in that mode. Obviously, with this year's situation, I think most teams in the league are going to be kicking money out to try to keep their teams together. Well certainly be no different."

thequick12 said: ↑
I think the main point in all of this is, with the tv deal coming real soon, it's a one year anomly as far as the cap goes.

Nevertheless teams will need to get under a reduced cap in 2021. It's possible to push cap hits into future years to make it work though.

So yeah that's what you quoted of mine, clearly implies. If it's a one year anomly obviously you simply delay those cap hits into the future. To a future when the cap will be above $200 million, to 2022 and beyond captain... As well as what old guteys quote says

 

[GreenNGold_81]

What comes next, Rodgers/Adams restructure or Lowry, Preston, Funchess, Jackson cuts?

 

[Poppa San]

What comes next, Rodgers/Adams restructure or Lowry, Preston, Funchess, Jackson cuts?

New contracts for MVS, DA17, maybe Amos and Z. Smith. Cut Mason, possibly trade Patrick. Restructure AR12 and Z Smith if he doesn't redo a longer one. Can you realistically replace Preston for $8m or Lowry for $3m? Any draftees/UDFA should replace the churn at the bottom of the roster first.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

New contracts for MVS, DA17, maybe Amos and Z. Smith. Cut Mason, possibly trade Patrick. Restructure AR12 and Z Smith if he doesn't redo a longer one. Can you realistically replace Preston for $8m or Lowry for $3m? Any draftees/UDFA should replace the churn at the bottom of the roster first.

Preston with Gary... Then we'd have to draft a guy to replace Gary's role on the roster.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

The main reason I replied to this is I don't think the cap is gonna be 195 m. But I just read an article that yes 180.5 m is the lowest it'll be. Most gms are apparently operating as if the cap will end up at 184.5 m. Some think 188m and the very optimistic minority is predicting 190m.

If it ends up at 188 m that's a decrease of 10 m certainly significant but a long long way from the 23 m drop to 175 m that was intially feared

I agree that $195M is very optimistic. The $185-$188M range I see entirely possible. However, I'm very curious how the new TV deal the NFL is pushing affects the cap. Maybe that new deal gets them to $190-$195M? I believe this coincides with the letter the league sent to teams. If they can't get it, maybe the NFL kicks it to $185M and calls it a day; but if they can I wouldn't be surprised to see that $195M cap number attainable.