Packer Free Agents: What should the Packers do? Track Their Decisions

[Pokerbrat2000]

To me its a no brainer to cut Perry if he isn't willing to restructure the remaining 3 years of his contract. Such a restructure would only be worth while doing for the Packers if Perry effectively cost the Packers a net $1.5-2.5M/year for his services. I upped my "offer"

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Do you really think Perry would accept $1.3 mil per year cash money for the next 3 years? I don't.

That's the million dollar question, just how much is he worth on the open market if he is cut? What would you pay him if you were another team? Would it just be a one year contract? How much is guaranteed?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Lot's of talk about outright cutting Nick Perry, to save $3.3M in cap, yet still get hit with his dead cap of $11.1M. The cut will have to take place before 3/14 or he gets a roster bonus of $4.8M and at that point, I don't see him being cut this year. Unless, they feel a post June 1st cut is beneficial to spread the cap hit out over 2 years.

The question is, how much is he worth on the open market? $2M on a 1 year prove it deal? What if the Packers offered to restructure to a 3 year $15M deal ($5M/year). Effectively, this would cost the Packers an additional $3.9M ($1.3/year) over the dead cap to employ Perry for 3 more years. It guarantees Perry that additional amount as well.

It doesn't make any sense for the Packers to cut Perry after June 1 as the move would result in a total additional cap hit of $1.9 million over the next two seasons without having him play another down.

As HRE mentioned I highly doubt Perry would be interested to sign at an additional $1.3 million per year for another three seasons.

 

[HardRightEdge]

To me its a no brainer to cut Perry if he isn't willing to restructure the remaining 3 years of his contract. Such a restructure would only be worth while doing for the Packers if Perry effectively cost the Packers a net $1.5-2.5M/year for his services. I upped my "offer".

So, you've bumped it a million negotiating with me? Imagine what you might have to do if I were his agent.

Seriously, $2.5 mil doesn't buy much in the way of even a 50% snap rotational veteran. It comes down to the medicals: Is he healthy now and how much are you willing to gamble he'll stay that way? If his current medicals are clean somebody would gamble more than $2.5 mil per year with little in the way of guarantees betting he'll stay that way with that lack of guarantees being an out if he doesn't. If the medicals are not clean, then you don't want him even under a renegotiation.

There's no easy answer to a bad contract with a large sunk cost.

If you cut him before the roster bonus is due, the cap savings is $3.3 mil. That savings doesn't buy much.

If you keep him past the roster bonus due date, a few days into free agency and before the draft, you've now spent an additional $5.4 mil in cap with that bonus. Under that scenario, the practical way to look at his 2019 cost-to-keep is $9.2 mil vs. savings-if-cut, i.e., the $3.3 mil in foregone cap savings plus the $5.4 mil in cap cost with that roster bonus if you keep him plus the $400,000 workout bonus. I don't have his medical file and I'm not a doctor, but that does not appear auspicious regardless.

Assuming the current medicals are clean, a rengotiation that might make sense would be to leave the contract in place except that Perry will forego the 2019 roster bonus. If he then makes it to the opening day roster he'll earn his $5.2 mil in base salary + $400,000 in workout bonus compared to cutting him early to capture that scant $3.3 mil in cap savings. Under this scenario, however, he could be cut right up to opening day to capture that savings if he can't stay healthy through preseason. In this case, Perry has to bet on his own health up to opening day. If he won't do that, why would I?

I'll say this much: I'd be surprised and sorely disappointed if both Perry and Mathews are on this roster come opening day with compounded injury and age risks. It's the kind of thing you'd do in a "win now" gamble given the scant Perry savings and what we'd assume would be a moderate Matthews re-up, using cap and draft capital elsewhere. I would consider that to be throwing good money after bad, a case of haste makes waste.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It doesn't make any sense for the Packers to cut Perry after June 1 as the move would result in a total additional cap hit of $1.9 million over the next two seasons without having him play another down.

How is that? If they keep him up to June 1 vs. cutting him before the roster bonus is due, the Packers will absorb the additional $5.4 mil in cap from the roster bonus plus the $400,000 workout bonus. That's a prohibitive additional cost for the priviledge of pushing $7.4 mil in dead cap out to 2020 if he's cut after June 1 while picking up only an additional $1.6 mil in 2019 cap. Again, that would be an imprudent "win now" move with little gain. From a 2 year perspective it would be foolish, to say the least.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Just providing food for thought/discussion

I know most just want to outright cut Perry and that might be the best thing to do, especially if before 3/14, the Packers are able to sign a decent FA to replace him (and Matthews). However, there are other options and I just wanted to point those out.

My opinion is that if he does get cut, he isn't going to see a lot of teams lining up to sign him, nor will they be willing to pay him starter money. If Perry is happy in Green Bay, has any kind of feeling that "I owe them", for underplaying his contract, he may be willing to restructure and may see it as his best move to ride out an injury filled career as a rotational player, on a team he is familiar with.

Of course, the Packer medical team and coaches know a lot more about his future than I do. If they are pretty well convinced he isn't worth chasing bad money with good money, see ya later Nick.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Prior to the 2011 CBA, cap was "use it or lose it". Since 2011, unused cap is carried over to the next season. I don't think the implications of that change have been fully appreciated in the media. Contract discussions always seem to revolve around the implications for the next season and stop there.

So, here's the thing. If you reach in spending money now to win now (the Graham contract, for instance, for an aging player) with the associated "cap friendly" signing bonus and you don't win now, that's money you cannot spend later and that "cap friendly" prorated signing bonus then becomes quite unfriendly. Jimmy Graham is certainly not worth his $12.7 mil 2019 cap number, but what can you buy with the $5.3 mil in cap savings if you cut him? Not much. And yet, he's not getting any younger.

If you're going to reach for a FA, at least make it a second contract guy or a guy coming off a 5th. year option with a record of durability. While there are no guarantees, at least with the younger players there's a better chance of having a valuable player two or three years down the line if "win now" doesn't happen. Perry did not quite work out that way but then again he did not have a record of durability and in that respect his contract was higher risk. Of course, that means fewer and more expensive signings since those kinds of players come at a premium.

Is this a roster that's one aging star away from legitimate contention? No, it is not. So don't do that.

One name that keeps coming to mind who might be available is Adrian Amos. Like that.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Just providing food for thought/discussion

I know most just want to outright cut Perry and that might be the best thing to do, especially if before 3/14, the Packers are able to sign a decent FA to replace him (and Matthews). However, there are other options and I just wanted to point those out.

My opinion is that if he does get cut, he isn't going to see a lot of teams lining up to sign him, nor will they be willing to pay him starter money. If Perry is happy in Green Bay, has any kind of feeling that "I owe them", for underplaying his contract, he may be willing to restructure and may see it as his best move to ride out an injury filled career as a rotational player, on a team he is familiar with.

Of course, the Packer medical team and coaches know a lot more about his future than I do. If they are pretty well convinced he isn't worth chasing bad money with good money, see ya later Nick.

There's a large gap between $1.5 - $2.5 mil and "starter money". What Perry is worth in the free market is somewhere in between if he can pass a physical. Over the years he's had wrist, hand an ankle surgery, but at least this most recent trip to IR with a knee injury did not require surgery from what I can tell, maybe a sprain.

If Perry reneogitated into that modest money from the perspective that he didn't earn his signing bonus and wanted to "give back", that would make him an exceedingly rare duck.

As for those that want to outright cut Perry and not resign Matthews, you need to get into who else ya got and who you can get. As noted above, keeping Perry with an effective cap-cost-to-keep of $9.2 mil compounded by whatever Matthews would cost in resigning (some like this idea) looks pretty foolish considering how that cap could otherwise be utilized. Better to get rid of both, sign a FA (or just sign Matthews to a modest deal) and then look for another edge in rounds 1-2 (who probably isn't going to show that much in year 1 as edge players tend to follow the progression of WRs). I would caution that Fackrell is not nearly the player that his sack total this past season suggests, but would probably do fine if paired with a guy a who can go get 'em.

Even if one believes sights should be set beyond 2019 as I do, you can't get rid of everybody who is not playing up to their contract or who is showing signs of age and/or accumulated injuries. What are you left with if you ditch Matthews, Cobb, Bulaga, Graham, Perry, T. Williams and even Daniels? Holes on top of holes. That might be fine if you're Oakland, already mired in losing habits and looking to clean the slate. The Packers are on the cusp of falling into such habits, Rodgers injuries notwithstanding. You want to maintain at least the possibility of playoff competitiveness or at least a 9 win season to show progress and not go down the rabbit hole.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How is that? If they keep him up to June 1 vs. cutting him before the roster bonus is due, the Packers will absorb the additional $5.4 mil in cap from the roster bonus plus the $400,000 workout bonus. That's a prohibitive additional cost for the priviledge of pushing $7.4 mil in dead cap out to 2020 if he's cut after June 1 while picking up only an additional $1.6 mil in 2019 cap. Again, that would be an imprudent "win now" move with little gain. From a 2 year perspective it would be foolish, to say the least.

Perry would count $14.4 million towards the cap playing for the Packers this season. If the team decides to release him after June 1 it would result in a total of $16.3 million of dead money counting against the cap over the next two seasons.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Perry would count $14.4 million towards the cap playing for the Packers this season. If the team decides to release him after June 1 it would result in a total of $16.3 million of dead money counting against the cap over the next two seasons.

I don't find those to be the relevant numbers.

If cut before the signing bonus is due, the dead cap is $11.1 mil. If they cut him after June 1, the dead cap is that $16.3 mil after paying the roster bonus. A decision is going to be made before that roster bonus is due. It makes no sense to pay him the roster bonus for the purpose of spreading the dead cap over two years.

 

[OldSchool101]

Do you really think Perry would accept $1.3 mil per year cash money for the next 3 years? I don't.

Well he’s under contract so that’s technically like taking a 3rd year (which he’s a FA in 2021) for 3.9M and making the same as he is now, 11.1M the next 2 yrs but with delayed payment because it’s spread out.

Either way we’re out 11.1M with him or without him but for our cap it would help balance the books in the meantime. The time value of the extra 5M today is much of your rookie class payroll Heck I’d pay half of the 3.9M just to have the flexibility of spreading his contract

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well he’s under contract so that’s technically like taking a 3rd year (which he’s a FA in 2021) for 3.9M and making the same as he is now, 11.1M the next 2 yrs but with delayed payment because it’s spread out.

Either way we’re out 11.1M with him or without him but for our cap it would help balance the books in the meantime. The time value of the extra 5M today is much of your rookie class payroll Heck I’d pay half of the 3.9M just to have the flexibility of spreading his contract

First, Perry has 3 more years on his contract, not 2.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here, but if I'm understanding pokerbrat's idea correctly, he would have a renegotiation tha wipes out the $5.2 mil, $9.6 mil and $9.4 mil in base salary for the next 3 years, respectively, get rid of the $4.8 mil roster bonus due in March, and the ancillary roster and workout bonuses, and replace those amounts with some modest $1.5 - $2.5 mil per year base salaries. That is not "basically taking a 3rd. [or 4th.] year".

The one thing you said that is right on point is Perry's $11.1 signing bonus prorated to 2019-2021 counts against the cap whether he stays or goes. It is is sunk cost and is at this point water under the bridge. It is best to think of that as pay for the 2017 and 2018 season, cap that is gone regardless. It is a non-factor going forward except for the woulda, shoulda, coulda griping.

 

[OldSchool101]

First, Perry has 3 more years on his contract, not 2.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here, but if I'm understanding pokerbrat's idea correctly, he would have a renegotiation tha wipes out the $5.2 mil, $9.6 mil and $9.4 mil in base salary for the next 3 years, respectively, get rid of the $4.8 mil roster bonus due in March, and the ancillary roster and workout bonuses, and replace those amounts with some modest $1.5 - $2.5 mil per year base salaries. That is not "basically taking a 3rd. [or 4th.] year".

The one thing you said that is right on point is Perry's $11.1 signing bonus prorated to 2019-2021 counts against the cap whether he stays or goes. It is is sunk cost and is at this point water under the bridge. It is best to think of that as pay for the 2017 and 2018 season, cap that is gone regardless. It is a non-factor going forward except for the woulda, shoulda, coulda griping.

My fault I was going on the incorrect basis of his current contract expiring after the 2020 season.
I read that wrong thinking it would be essentially a 1yr extension. My bad

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

if I'm understanding pokerbrat's idea correctly, he would have a renegotiation tha wipes out the $5.2 mil, $9.6 mil and $9.4 mil in base salary for the next 3 years, respectively, get rid of the $4.8 mil roster bonus due in March, and the ancillary roster and workout bonuses, and replace those amounts with some modest $1.5 - $2.5 mil per year base salaries. That is not "basically taking a 3rd. [or 4th.] year".

Sort of kind of my thinking

No matter what the Packers do with Perry, they will have a dead cap hit of $11.1 M to contend with. This is the remaining portion of his $18.5M signing bonus. If they don't cut him prior to 3/14, another $5,137,500 gets added to that as a Roster bonus, then a $400K workout bonus and a $5.2M salary.

If they can convince Perry that if he doesn't renegotiate his last 3 years, they will cut him pre 3/14, no Roster bonus and Perry is a FA. Remember, Perry already has been paid the $11.1M since it was a signing bonus, its just a cap number right now.

So depending on Perry's financial situation, health and outlook of his value on the open market, he would have to decide. If the Packers restructure the current contract as say a 3 year $18M contract (includes the $11.1 M already paid out), I make $6.9 M over those 3 years. Can I get that on the open market?

For the Packers, they get a guy that now only costs them $2.3 M/year. Which over 3 years is only $1.7625 M more than just his roster bonus is this year.

Obviously, the Packers have to determine if Perry still is valuable to them and what that value is and then hope that Perry agrees with them.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Sort of kind of my thinking

No matter what the Packers do with Perry, they will have a dead cap hit of $11.1 M to contend with. This is the remaining portion of his $18.5M signing bonus. If they don't cut him prior to 3/14, another $5,137,500 gets added to that as a Roster bonus, then a $400K workout bonus and a $5.2M salary.

If they can convince Perry that if he doesn't renegotiate his last 3 years, they will cut him pre 3/14, no Roster bonus and Perry is a FA. Remember, Perry already has been paid the $11.1M since it was a signing bonus, its just a cap number right now.

So depending on Perry's financial situation, health and outlook of his value on the open market, he would have to decide. If the Packers restructure the current contract as say a 3 year $18M contract (includes the $11.1 M already paid out), I make $6.9 M over those 3 years. Can I get that on the open market?

For the Packers, they get a guy that now only costs them $2.3 M/year. Which over 3 years is only $1.7625 M more than just his roster bonus is this year.

Obviously, the Packers have to determine if Perry still is valuable to them and what that value is and then hope that Perry agrees with them.

There's little doubt in my mind that Perry needs to be renegotiated or cut before the roster bonus is due.

Right, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, the $11.1 mil in signing bonus overhang is irrelevant going forward. It is cap spent whether he stays, goes, or is renegotiated.

Perhaps the best way to look at is this:

When viewing the proration dead cap as sunk money, if cut before the roster bonus comes due his cap savings is $3.3 mil. If he were kept under the current contract for the 2019 season, you lose that savings while incurring $11 mil in cap cost for 2019 for salary, the roster bonus and per game bonuses that you do not incur if he is cut. The net cap difference between cut and keep for 2019 is $14.3 mil. That's a big number requiring an optimism that he returns to the 2016 form that got him this contract in the first place. It would be hard to justify that optimism to say the least.

Where we disagree is the amount he would get from another team in free agency if he can pass a physical or that he (or any player) would take a sharp pay cut on the order you described to compensate the team for underforming a contract when he can earn more in FA.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Where we disagree is the amount he would get from another team in free agency if he can pass a physical or that he (or any player) would take a sharp pay cut on the order you described to compensate the team for underforming a contract when he can earn more in FA.

I don't think we really disagree, since neither of us know what he is worth to other teams, healthy or not healthy. Let's just say I don't think he will get starter money and I think it will be less than $5M/year, without much in the way of guarantees.

If you were a GM, what would you pay Perry?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If cut before the signing bonus is due, the dead cap is $11.1 mil. If they cut him after June 1, the dead cap is that $16.3 mil after paying the roster bonus. A decision is going to be made before that roster bonus is due. It makes no sense to pay him the roster bonus for the purpose of spreading the dead cap over two years.

Actually it was my point all along that there's no reason for the Packers to pay Perry the signing bonus in mid March and cut him before the start of the season.

Sort of kind of my thinking

No matter what the Packers do with Perry, they will have a dead cap hit of $11.1 M to contend with. This is the remaining portion of his $18.5M signing bonus. If they don't cut him prior to 3/14, another $5,137,500 gets added to that as a Roster bonus, then a $400K workout bonus and a $5.2M salary.

If they can convince Perry that if he doesn't renegotiate his last 3 years, they will cut him pre 3/14, no Roster bonus and Perry is a FA. Remember, Perry already has been paid the $11.1M since it was a signing bonus, its just a cap number right now.

So depending on Perry's financial situation, health and outlook of his value on the open market, he would have to decide. If the Packers restructure the current contract as say a 3 year $18M contract (includes the $11.1 M already paid out), I make $6.9 M over those 3 years. Can I get that on the open market?

For the Packers, they get a guy that now only costs them $2.3 M/year. Which over 3 years is only $1.7625 M more than just his roster bonus is this year.

Obviously, the Packers have to determine if Perry still is valuable to them and what that value is and then hope that Perry agrees with them.

I highly doubt Perry would agree to renegotiate his contract that way as he would most likely receive a significantly better offer as a free agent if the Packers decide to release him.

Perhaps the best way to look at is this:

When viewing the proration dead cap as sunk money, if cut before the roster bonus comes due his cap savings is $3.3 mil. If he were kept under the current contract for the 2019 season, you lose that savings while incurring $11 mil in cap cost for 2019 for salary, the roster bonus and per game bonuses that you do not incur if he is cut. The net cap difference between cut and keep for 2019 is $14.3 mil.

Here's the three scenarios that have been discussed in this thread and the total amount of cap space the Packers would take in all cases.

Packers release Perry before his signing bonus is due in mid-March: $11.1 million
Packers release Perry after June 1: $16.3 million
Packers keep Perry for 2019 season and release him afterwards: $21.8 million

Therefore while the Packers would only save $3.3 million by releasing Perry before the start of free agency they would actually save a total of $10.7 million by not having him on the roster in 2019. In my opinion it should be possible to adequately replace him with that kind of money for next season.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If you were a GM, what would you pay Perry?

I'd have no idea until he underwent a physical exam and worked out.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Time to fire up this thread again. In the next couple of weeks decisions will be made about some of our current players future as Packers.

Just saw this article pop up, the author predicts Matthews is resigned by the Packers. Personally, I don't think it would be a bad thing as long as the price is right. Still shouldn't stop the Packers from cutting Perry, pursuing a decent FA OLB and using some draft picks. What it would do is give us depth, especially if Perry is cut.

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay...-Clay-Matthews-signs-with-Packers--129296331/

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Time to fire up this thread again. In the next couple of weeks decisions will be made about some of our current players future as Packers.

Just saw this article pop up, the author predicts Matthews is resigned by the Packers. Personally, I don't think it would be a bad thing as long as the price is right. Still shouldn't stop the Packers from cutting Perry, pursuing a decent FA OLB and using some draft picks. What it would do is give us depth, especially if Perry is cut.

https://247sports.com/nfl/green-bay...-Clay-Matthews-signs-with-Packers--129296331/

I expect the Packers to keep Perry while not re-signing Matthews.

 

[Mondio]

I'm almost on the re-sign Matthews and cut Perry. Matthews would have to be on much different contract than his last one that's for sure. He'll probably get more elsewhere. and when Perry signed his contract I thought it was decent in that if he was going to be paid the contract he was going to have to earn the contract as it wasn't overly loaded with signing bonus or guarantees, he'd have to perform to earn the higher salaries. Well, he's done enough to make a roster and then nothing every year. Even if we cut him and he has an exceptional year somewhere else I probably wouldn't care, as I'm done paying him. I'm not counting on him to be available at all. I can't even tell you how many seasons he's been with GB anymore without googling. But it seems like he's only played in very few games for us where he wasn't limited to the point of just being a body because of injury, or out. How many times has that guy played 5 healthy games in a row? never would be my first guess.

I don't dislike him, hate him all that other jazz, but i'm done relying on him as a player for this team. if we kept him it would be a miracle if we got more than 5 games out of him i'd rather pay someone else.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I can't even tell you how many seasons he's been with GB anymore without googling.

Funny you should say that, because for the life of me, I can never remember the guys first name. I usually want to call him Steve or Katy Perry.

I'm in the same camp as you. It sucks that injuries have really derailed his career thus far, but even when he has been on the field, I rarely notice the guy. Perry is the poster child and cautionary tale for overpaying a guy after 1 solid season, that just so happens to occur in his contract year.

I can see the Packers not cutting Perry due to the fact that they won't save much by doing so, nor are the flush with depth at OLB.

 

[Mondio]

Steve Sherry sings Oh Perry, wait that's not it...

 

[PackerDNA]

You're getting real warm, Mondio.

Steve Sherry sings Oh Perry, wait that's not it...

 

[Mondio]

You're getting real warm, Mondio.

you should see me when I really warm up and hit stride