Overrated/Underrated

[Dantés]

We're well into the season now, so looking at the standings, which teams do you think are better than their record, and which teams do you think are worse? So "overrated" in this context means which teams aren't as good as their record, and "underrated" in this context means which teams are better than their record.

Mine...

Overrated:

-Steelers: The Steelers are 5-3-1, which is good for a .611 win %, but they have a negative point differential and clearly look like an overall losing team to me. Three of their wins are by 5, 3, and 2 points respectively. Their offense is completely inept, and while the defense is solid, it's not nearly good enough to make up the deficiency.

-Saints: I never bought into the Saints this season, but was surprised to see them get out to a 5-2 start. However, I think you see things start to unravel in recent weeks, and I don't think it's just the QB. Payton has done an amazing job with this group, but their roster just doesn't have the talent to hang with the top of the conference.

-Chargers: The Chargers are perennially media favorites. I guess journalist types love the hipster feeling of supporting a pathetic franchise that doesn't have fans. But the homeless Chargers shouldn't have a winning record. They have a negative point differential; 4 of their 5 wins are one score.

Underrated:

-Vikings: I don't enjoy saying this, but the Vikings are better than a 4-5 record. All five losses have come by a total of 18 points, with three coming in overtime. Furthermore, they just have too many really good players to be sub .500. I think their luck will bounce back the other way and they will finish at least in the wildcard discussion.

-Eagles: The Eagles are +26 in point differential and yet -2 in the win column. Lately, they've been finding their stride under a new coach. Hurts is limited, but the analysis of him isn't balanced-- too much is made of his deficiencies and not enough of his unique ability (38 1D's and 5 TD's on the ground so far).

-Colts: The Colts are .500 and +38 in scoring; the Packers are .800 and +36 in scoring. If you look at their season, Indy started rocky with three straight losses, and since that time they're 5-2, with both losses coming in OT. They haven't had the best schedule, but they're better than a .500 team.

Honorable Mention:

-Panthers: The Panthers as constituted a week ago were just about where they deserved to be. If Cam proves to provide better QB play, they could be way better.

And the Packers?

Some would argue they're overrated at 8-2 with only a +36 differential, but I'd disagree. For starters, week one factors -35 into that equation and was clearly a fluke (as week one results tend to be). The only other loss (-6) was the Jordan Love game, which clearly isn't reflective of who the Packers are. If you set aside those two results as not really representative, you're talking about a differential of +77. Obviously if you eliminated the worst losses for all teams, everyone would be better. But the effect with the Packers is much more dramatic.

 

[El Guapo]

I don't think that the Saints are that overrated. They obliterated both participants from the NFC championship game last year (Packers and Bucs), rely on a strong defense, have Alvin Kamara, and seem to win with whomever is at QB (Brees, Winston, Simien, Hill) these past two years. Will they make it to the SB? Nope. I think that they will be a force in the NFC down to the end.

A team that I would throw into the "Over-rated" category would be the Ravens. Generally they are a good team and still have Jackson at QB, but he's not playing at an MVP level and they just don't seem to overcome their injuries. While the Vikings have lost most of their close games, the Ravens have won them. One could say that is because they are a good team. I would say that they've just gotten lucky, and will lose more games similar to the Dolphins loss yesterday.

 

[PikeBadger]

I see the Vikings and Steelers as being the two sides of a coin. The Steelers have a winners attitude and the Vikings....... well, they know that disaster lies around the next corner, but it's dark and they can't see where the corner is. They know they're the Vikings and this ride won't end well.

 

[RepStar15]

I would argue that the Bucs are a bit overrated. They are only +3 in the turnover differential

 

[OldSchool101]

I’m going to say the Vikings are a slightly underrated. They have played everyone good. Lots of close games. They should be 5-4

Rams are a slightly overrated. Should be 6-4. They had a better record than their team strength. They got found out last night.

The GB Defense is underrated. They’ve played through substantial adversity, but they play with a team mentality. There are teams with more talent, but their sum isn’t as good.

I’m growing concerned with our Offense, it’s not even close to 2020 form. We need David Bak now. We need Jones back after the bye so we can press our Run game. After Sunday we play 4 of 6 at Lambeau! Watch out!

 

[tynimiller]

Overrated: I concur with the Saints and Chargers, I also believe Carolina is



Underrated: Concur very strongly Vikings, also on the Eagles. I believed even before last night that the 49ers are much better than most believe as well.

 

[Krabs]

Some would argue they're overrated at 8-2 with only a +36 differential, but I'd disagree. For starters, week one factors -35 into that equation and was clearly a fluke (as week one results tend to be). The only other loss (-6) was the Jordan Love game, which clearly isn't reflective of who the Packers are. If you set aside those two results as not really representative, you're talking about a differential of +77. Obviously if you eliminated the worst losses for all teams, everyone would be better. But the effect with the Packers is much more dramatic.

I actually don't disagree with this take. I would say that the Saints game is clearly an outlier. It's like a spike sale of toilet paper when everyone was concerned about the virus. It was not predictable and not representative of true average sales. Same with the week one showing, which I think most teams do throw out as well. "Well, it was week one, so it doesn't count". I also agree on the Jordan Love game. If Rodgers plays we win that game. Regardless, I don't think one could argue they're overrated when they are the top seed in the NFC right now. If they were 4-5 like MN the conversation would be different. With way too much said there, I agree with your assessment.